Seymour Hersh is Right Again
Hersh warned us. I wrote about it.
Now it's here.
… … A key element of the drawdown plans, not mentioned
in the President’s public statements, is that the departing American
troops will be replaced by American airpower. Quick, deadly strikes by U.S.
warplanes are seen as a way to improve dramatically the combat capability
of even the weakest Iraqi combat units. The danger, military experts have
told me, is that, while the number of American casualties would decrease as
ground troops are withdrawn, the over-all level of violence and the number
of Iraqi fatalities would increase unless there are stringent controls over
who bombs what.“We’re not planning to diminish the war,”
Patrick Clawson, the deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near
East Policy, told me. Clawson’s views often mirror the thinking of the
men and women around Vice-President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld. “We just want to change the mix of the forces doing the fighting—Iraqi
infantry with American support and greater use of airpower. The rule now is
to commit Iraqi forces into combat only in places where they are sure to win.
The pace of commitment, and withdrawal, depends on their success in the battlefield.”He continued, “We want to draw down our forces,
but the President is prepared to tough this one out. There is a very deep
feeling on his part that the issue of Iraq was settled by the American people
at the polling places in 2004.” The war against the insurgency “may
end up being a nasty and murderous civil war in Iraq, but we and our allies
would still win,” he said. “As long as the Kurds and the Shiites
stay on our side, we’re set to go. There’s no sense that the world
is caving in. We’re in the middle of a seven-year slog in Iraq, and
eighty per cent of the Iraqis are receptive to our message.”One Pentagon adviser told me, “There are always
contingency plans, but why withdraw and take a chance? I don’t think
the President will go for it”—until the insurgency is broken.
“He’s not going to back off. This is bigger than domestic politics.”
… …
Up
in the Air, by Seymour Hersh
Notice that last line I offered? “Bigger than domestic politics”
might have been true then. But that was before we found out that President Bush
broke the law.
Domestic politics is pretty important because Russ Feingold has
offered up a censure resolution.
Censure is also beginning to move on the web big time, getting
a lot more attention. Via MyDD:
Number of Google News hits for Feingold
censure: 1,280
Number of Google New hits for “American
Research Group” censure.: 1 (Think
Progress)
Reader dubyaisamoron
wonders if this whole bombing campaign is a coincidence, with Bush's poll numbers
hitting 33% and all. Timing is everything.
As Hersh wrote in late November, this has been coming and the
closer we got to a civil war the more imminent it became. After all, the AC-130s
aren't back in Iraq for nothing.
NOTE: To make it clear, an air assault is not a bombing raid. We're doing an air assault today, but with the insurgents in a civil war posture, our AC-130s aren't back Iraq by accident, as a point of looking where this could be going.
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