John McCain Losing Ground by Going Right

John McCain Losing Ground by Going Right
(cross-posted at firedoglake)

The one really intriguing nugget of data in
the new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll has to do with 2008. Thus
far, when Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.,
have been matched up in hypothetical ballot tests, McCain has won each easily.
Now that McCain has embarked on a grand repositioning of himself in the political
marketplace, moving from the independent, moderate maverick to a mainstream
Republican team player, it raises the questions of what he gains, what he
loses, and what is the net effect.

While the truth is that on most important, substantive
issues, as opposed to process issues (e.g. campaign finance reform), McCain's
voting record has always been very conservative and there is no shift. Indeed,
his strong support of the war in Iraq has not wavered one bit. On measures
of style, rhetoric and political positioning (e.g., going to Rev. Jerry Falwell's
Liberty University to give the commencement address), though, McCain is clearly
moving. As McCain begins to solidify himself on the right, does he sacrifice
support in the middle?

It is far too soon to say, but comparing the late February
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies numbers to the newest ones, McCain has
gone from a 10-point, 47 percent to 37 percent advantage, to a five-point,
44 percent to 39 percent lead. Among registered voters, McCain's advantage
has had a smaller drop from a 12-point margin (48 percent to 36 percent) in
February to a 9-point margin (46 percent to 37 percent). … …

Better In than Out, by Charlie Cook – via
MyDD (emphasis added)

We might as well call this one, Senator Suck Up gets a message.

Seems like moving to the right in a contorted effort to seduce Bush's right-wing
base isn't all it's cracked up to be. Even religious fanatics can sense when
a person's motives aren't pure. Not only that, but in the process you actually
lose ground, because the people who used to believe in you now find you simply
spineless.

Well done, John.

I'm obviously not alone in finding John McCain's contorted posturing, especially
in Memphis, to be an embarrassment. It's just so blatantly obvious what
he's attempting to do. Besides, if you look at McCain's record, he's about as
conservative as they come.

So, what does McCain gain if he goes so far right as to win the nomination
in 2008, but loses the whole ball game because his far right-wing lurch makes
him unelectable in the general?

In a word, nothing.

Senator McCain obviously is sensing the backlash, which is hinted at in Cook's
poll. It's one reason he likely did his recent interview with Jon Stewart, where
he finally admitted that he was sucking up to Bush's base.

However, it's way to early to tell if this is a trend, as Charlie
Cook stated, with Jonathan Singer agreeing. People like Kurtz have questioned
if it's now the end
of the media affair for John McCain. E.J. Dionne ran a column recently entitled,
A Maverick No
More?. Maverick, schmaverick, I say.

But trouble abounds for Bush’s Republican Party these days. There is
such a right-wing ideological litmus test rooted in religiosity that is demanded
for candidates that it makes them close to unelectable by the masses, not to
mention the credibility issues that come with sucking up to Bush’s base.
Old time Republicans hardly recognize Bush’s Republican Party.

Now that the GOP has been transformed by the rise of
the South, the trauma of terrorism and George W. Bush's conviction that God
wanted him to be president, a deeper conclusion can be drawn: The Republican
Party has become the first religious party in U.S. history.

(snip)

Unfortunately, more danger lurks in the responsiveness
of the new GOP coalition to Christian evangelicals, fundamentalists and Pentecostals,
who muster some 40 percent of the party electorate. Many millions believe
that the Armageddon described in the Bible is coming soon. Chaos in the explosive
Middle East, far from being a threat, actually heralds the second coming of
Jesus Christ. Oil price spikes, murderous hurricanes, deadly tsunamis and
melting polar ice caps lend further credence.

The potential interaction between the end-times electorate,
inept pursuit of Persian Gulf oil, Washington's multiple deceptions and the
financial crisis that could follow a substantial liquidation by foreign holders
of U.S. bonds is the stuff of nightmares. To watch U.S. voters enable such
policies — the GOP coalition is unlikely to turn back — is depressing to
someone who spent many years researching, watching and cheering those grass
roots. … …

How
the GOP Became God's Own Party – Kevin Phillips

Even Mr. Phillips, who once considered voting for John McCain, says his closeness
to George W. Bush makes that almost impossible now.

Yes, it's too early to know anything for certain, except that the likelihood
of the American public wanting to elect another George W. Bush is between slim
and nil. The indomitable Helen Thomas put it succinctly just recently: Want
Another Bush? Elect McCain.