The Burning Bush

The Burning Bush–updated–

UPDATE II (1:00 p.m.): This is an open thread on the Israeli – Hezbollah escalation. It will be easier to discuss for now if everything is in one place. I wanted to share something after seeing a CNN update with Jamie McIntyre. First, the State Department spokesperson captured by CNN didn't give you a sense of confidence and that's putting it mildly. Freaked is the description that fits. McIntyre reported that they're basically telling Americans to either “sit tight,” or if they have a safe way out, take it. The bottom line is that “Americans are on their own.” Another thing McIntyre said was that the USS Iwo Jima may be moved from the Red Sea, where it's conducting maneuvers, to the Med. Sea, so that helicopters can then be used to evacuate Americans. How's that for a scary scenario? Right now the ship is on maneuvers, so it's still up in the air. Sounds like the entire situation we're watching play out.

UPDATE (9:17 a.m.): Some very interesting links to offer this morning: Lebanese Political Journal, The Lebanese Blogger, From Beirut to the Beltway. Also more from Steve Clemons. …almost forgot, don't miss CNN's Lebanon Problem by Eric Boehlert. addition: Martini Republic.

At this point I don't think its' even controversial to suggest the Arab-Israeli conflict is told in the United States mostly through the eyes of Israelis, and that's especially true on cable news channels. American news organizations have more resources in Israel, better sources within the Israeli government and most American viewers likely consider the Israeli's more like 'us.' And if you don't think there's a difference on how the U.S. media cover the warring sides, then try to imagine what the press coverage would have looked like yesterday if 50 Israeli citizens had been killed by the missiles that hit Haifa. I doubt Wolf Blitzer would have reported on that story for a solid hour and forgotten to give viewers the civilian death toll. – Eric Boehlert

If you happened to be watching cable any time last night, one thing became
apparent. We need translators. Nobody seemed to be talking straight. Now we've
got a naval
blockade of Lebanon. We've also got Secretary Rice told to “back
off” by Israeli Prime Minister Ohlmert, with the neocon faction in
the White House hoping for the worst; pushing for a confrontation with Iran since we
went into Iraq. I imagine Bill Kristol popping champagne last night. Michael
Ledeen must be beside himself with glee. Mind you, this is the guy who was
allegedly involved in the Iranian hostage deal in 1980, as well as the latest
Niger docu-drama.

Enter the American corporate media, who has begun to sound sympathetic towards
President Bush, because he's being hit on all sides with all this nasty foreign
policy stuff. Watch this, because it's going to have an impact.

See where I'm going? Rally 'round the commander in chief, just in time for the U.S. elections. Don't think they won't deal this card.

But I don't care what you read today. Nobody knows the outcome here, nobody.
This is all balls in the air, wind blowing, flames dancing, people. It's fluid,
baby, like wild
fire on an open western plain.

There's one thing we do know for sure, however. We're bogged down in Iraq,
with American influence at a low ebb, while Bush's hand in the Middle East was
tipped a loooong time ago. If you don't think that matters, I refer
you again to the “back off” Condi rumor. Like Israel is going to take an academic's warning to heart. Give me a break.

An article today in the Washington Post is a must read. It will likely muddle
your impression of things, but we're talking about the Middle East, so what
else is new?

The radical Shiite movement Hezbollah and its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, hold an effective veto in Lebanese politics, and the group's military prowess has heartened its supporters at home and abroad in the Arab world. But that same force of arms has begun to endanger Hezbollah's long-term standing in a country where critics accuse it of dragging Lebanon into an unwinnable conflict the government neither chose nor wants to fight. “To a certain Arab audience and Arab elite, Nasrallah is a champion, but the price is high,” said Walid Jumblatt, a member of parliament and leader of Lebanon's Druze community. “We are paying a high price.” Attacks Could Erode Faction's Support Pressure Building Against Shiite Militia

Israel is talking about enforcing 1559, which amounts to disarming Hezbollah
(or Hizbollah if you prefer). Lots of luck on that one. It's not going to happen,
because as others have said, Hezbollah seems to be mirroring Hamas.

Late yesterday, there was talk about Hezbollah prisoners held by Israel. That
should make anyone stand up and take notice. Like Israel is going to trade prisoners?
Is that at the bottom or a way out?

Here's an interesting insider view:

I can’t reach any of my friends on the phone, although email seems to be working. My friend Irina reported that in Hamra, people are going about their business in the hot and humid Beirut summer. The Lebanese will take this in stride, having endured worse at the hands of numerous enemies, but this is only the first day of what looks to be a prolonged attack. The shutting down of Hariri International Airport will hit hard on the economy. This is the high tourist season and many Gulf tourists with their Gulf money will either be unable to get in or flee through Damascus — although the road to Damascus has been bombed. The IDF has said a naval blockade is in effect and all ships entering and leaving Lebanon’s ports will be stopped. Israel is trying to box Lebanon — and Hezbollah — in. This will have serious repercussions in Lebanese politics. It could start another civil war. The Shi’a overwhelmingly support Hezbollah and the other political parties of the March 14 alliance are in a bad spot. Who will reign in Hezbollah? Will Lebanon’s already fragile political arrangement collapse into a Shi’ites vs. everyone else arrangement, with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah on one side and Christians, Druze and Sunnis on the other backed up by … Israel? And/or the United States and France? I’m just not sure how many Christians will turn on Hezbollah, even though they blame them for bringing the wrath of Israel down on the country. Scorpions in a Bottle

Now Olmert is flexing his muscles at us and at Lebanon, because he knows there
is a faction in the U.S. that wants this confrontation badly. Frankly, he looks
spineless, which only heightens the possibility of disaster.

Hey, but by the time I wake up out here in the western United States, who knows
what could have happened. One thing I believe, no matter the outcome, is that
none of this would have happened if Hezbollah and Israel, our ally, didn't feel
we were in a weakened state, due to Iraq and President Bush's lack of credibility,
which has set us all on an unknown course. As for Olmert's escalation, well, it's risky business.

As for Iran, I know everyone thinks it's all being orchestrated out of Tehran;
that Ahmadinejad is some mad genius, but frankly, I just don't buy he's the
puppet master.

The current escalation is ultimately the real legacy of the Iraq war. Bush touched
off this contagion of unintended consequences, or was this the master plan?
Whichever, it's not going as anyone planned. By the time it's over who knows how many nukes North Korea will have a their disposal.