Latest Senate Poll
The latest polls for the Senate from USA
Today Gallup are out. Chris Bowers has the bottom line and it's looking very good.
Cutting to the chase, the USA Today – Gallup has Webb down by 3 at 46 to Allen's 49, among likely voters. However, Bowers sees someting different, using averages.
Virginia: Webb (D) 47.0%–45.8% Allen (R). This is an eight-poll average that includes all four polls that were completed on October 29th. This should be good enough for Webb to win. It is basically what Kaine led by last year heading into the election.
USA Today – Gallup has McCaskill 49 to Talent's 45, among likely voters. Bowers below.
Missouri: McCaskill: (D) 48.2%–46.2% Talent (R). I really like McCaskill's chances here now. That's seven polls in a row that do not show Talent in front. If McCaskill wins, I'll spend a week in Missouri as gratitude. I'm not kidding. But she really should have it now.
Tester's up 50 to Burns's 41, among likely voters. Bowers: Montana: Tester (D) 48.8%–45.6% Burns (R) (see his post for more).
Menendez is up 50 to Keane's 40, among likely voters. Bowers: New Jersey: Menendez (D) 48.2%–41.6% Kean (R).
Whitehouse is up 48 to Chafee's 45, among likely voters. Bowers: Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) 47.3%–41.3% Chafee (R).
Ford is within 3 at 46 to Corker's 49, according to the poll, so this race
is within reach. In fact, Ford's gained two points since the last poll in late
September – early October. Here is Bowers' take.
Tennessee: Corker (R) 48.6%–45.0% Ford (D). I used the most recent polls from the last five polling firms for this one, because Rasmussen has been polling this one like crazy. It sure doesn't look good for Ford, although it doesn't look as bad as some have made it out to be. I don't think he will get blown out anymore, but racism was the key here. I don't care how many Tennessee residents think the racist ads were offensive. They ended up falling for it. If Republicans keep the Senate, they will have done so on pretty much straight-up racism.
Obviously, the wider lead for Corker has been closed, so if Ford keeps it close my last ruminations on it being a blow out will not materialize, I'm happy to say, with my initial gut feeling right on: racism won it.
Bowers thinks we take the Senate 51 – 49, providing Lieberman caucuses with the Dems, which also could read 49-49-2, according to him. He knows a hell of a lot more about polling than me, so I'd bet on his analysis. But something seems whacky in all the conflicting information coming from some of these polls, which have been all over the place lately. Corker was way ahead of Ford last week, but now Ford's closed a bit. I'd strap yourself in, because any way you look at it this is going to be one hell of a ride.
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