| Michael Ware on Iraq. |
The wild speculation needs to stop. But with Fox
\”News\” blaring things like White House Holding Back Report
Detailing Iran\’s Meddling in Iraq, can there be any doubt there\’s an agenda
already afoot? Conservative bloggers are grabbing hold. Fox is saying that the report is being held back for fear of
Ahmadinejad\’s reaction. Are they kidding?
Read Juan
Cole.
Note that the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which controls
Najaf, is Bush\’s major ally in Iraq even though it is close to Iran. Those
fighting the Najaf government and Iraqi army forces were anti-Iranian. Rightwing
bloggers seem confused on these points.
Robert Baer brings up the IRGC, Iran\’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, five
of whom are still in custody and charged with helping Iraqis kill Americans.
I called up an American contractor in Baghdad who runs convoys from Kuwait
every day and asked him just how much damage.\”Let me put it this way,\”he
said.\”In Basra today the currency is the Iranian toman, not the Iraqi
dinar.\”He said his convoys now are forced to pay a 40% surcharge to Shi\’a
militias and Iraqi police in the south, many of whom are affiliated with IRGC.
Nobody should doubt that Iran is involved in Iraq. Look at a map. They share
a huge border. But the stories currently circulating simply aren\’t believable, though it\’s certainly not crazy to think Iran is training people. We just don\’t know anything for sure.
Wouldn\’t it be ironic if the oil men in the White House revved up a real
incident with Iran, when all they really wanted to do was tweak the Iranians
enough to be able to put some of the blame on them for Iraq falling? As I\’ve
stipulated before, they didn\’t put Adm. Fallon in charge for nothing. But do the White
House oil men want gas at $5/gallon, as Jim Cramer has warned, with economic chaos not far behind?
The military escalation, aka build up, which Maliki says he does not want isn\’t
for Iraq. It\’s for Iran. But is it all for show? Unfortunately, Bush has earned
the reputation he\’s got and many are convinced he\’s ready to rumble all the
way into Iran. I am not. (Let me add to be clear, this does not preclude airstrikes. But boots on the ground will not happen.)
There is no way the Joint Chiefs or any respectable commander in U.S. military
would tell Bush to pull the trigger on Iran. It would be utter madness. Our
soldiers in Iraq would be slaughtered.
Baer wonders if the Iranians are out for revenge. It could be about making them sweat. Ahmadinejad is at a low point in Iran.
All this revving up might be to make the Iranian power bench and the mullahs nervous.
It\’s hardball played by a team known to have an itchy trigger finger.
Somebody needs to start talking or making concessions. The former is out and the latter depends on just how weak Ahmadinejad is.
It doesn\’t get any more dangerous than this.
UPDATE (1:16 p.m.): Tucker Carlson has decided to mimic Fox. He just had an interview with Arnaud de Borchgrave the editor in chief of UPI on Iran. Borchgrave said flatly that we are \”headed to a military showdown\” with Iran as \”part of the war on terror.\” That\’s not all, as for what\’s in the works and what Congress would do about it, Borchgrave gets awfully specific.
\”As I understand it, it\’s a three night campaign of bombing; some 700 aim points throughout Iran, including 58 that would require deep penetration bombs. Of course, there would be a lot of shouting, but all of that would be over rather quickly.\” – Arnaud de Borchgrave
UPDATE (8:44 a.m.): The Pentagon has stopped selling F-14 parts to Iran. Good move. More of this type action, please. On another note, we may see target practice from sea on certain points, but Bush will not invade Iran. We need a larger strategy than war on this one. Stopping F-16 sales is a start. Diplomacy would also be nice.
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