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Camp Hillary should kiss the blogosphere on their collective butt. The onslaught
of posts is a gift. This early it will only make Clinton bear down,
both Clintons, that is.
“Most primary
polls are inflating Clinton’s advantage.“
There is a different kind of “Hillary
doomed,” by Yglesias.
“Views of Clinton
become more negative“, or if you prefer, her “favorability rating plunges”.
Jerome has the most recent online
preference polls if you haven’t seen them yet.
And when there isn’t doom Hillary
gets this: “And to the Democratic base that is letting Clinton dominate
the polls, I can’t help but shake my head and wonder if we really deserve to
keep our republic.”
I love Stoller, but there’s nothing like online hyperbole to bring collective Clinton phobia into the sunlight.
The
Mystery Pollster offers something else.
First, some interests disclosed: MyDD is a popular left-leaning blog, of
course, but its authors and readers tend to be more hostile to the Clinton
candidacy than those who identify as Democrats on national polls. About
a year ago when I was still working as a Democratic campaign pollster, I consulted
with Bowers on a “Netroots” survey of members of MoveOn.org that,
among other things, found that Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings were lowest
among those who read blogs most often.Moving on to the substance, I agree with the first part of Bower’s argument,
that national surveys typically administer their presidential primary horserace
questions to a much wider slice of the electorate than will actually participate
in next year’s primaries and caucuses. I argued essentially the same thing
in the first two installments of my “primer” on presidential primary
polling.I am not ready, however, to agree that this practice inflates Clinton’s lead
in national polling. What evidence I see is sketchy and contradictory. …
..
I don’t do polls. So you’ll have to read Bowers and the rest and judge for
yourself. I will tell you one thing that’s been true my whole life. The presidential polls
mean nothing but ulcers to the supporters this far out and they don’t do much for the candidates either. Ask John Kerry.
It’s not new that Clinton has a big challenge in the online community, which she acknowledged during MoveOn’s town hall on Iraq recently. But it’s beyond what you might think. Part of it is her rhetoric, even the way she speaks. She sounds like she’s out
of yesterday, because she is. Even though she represents the first real opportunity
to push for a woman president there is something 20th century about Hillary
Clinton. If Obama’s candidacy as well as the new feel and content of the Edwards
campaign illustrates anything it’s that these two candidates are offering something new and fresh. Hillary doesn’t present herself as a modern 21st century woman.
Quoting Booman:
The people that are already least inclined to support her are the people
(ages 18-29) whose opinions of her have been shaped by her life as a Senator
in the era of Bush, and not as a besieged First Lady in the age of Newt Gingrich.
But the older folks will have their opinions revised as they become more involved
in the campaign. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is doomed. And it is doomed because
she failed to anticipate the total collapse of Bushism.
That “besieged First Lady in the age of Newt Gingrich” is the reason
her negatives are so high. The wingnuts did their job. It took 10 years but
they did it. It’s calcified among many.
The bottom line is that Hillary’s miscalculation and her unwillingness
to apologize for her Iraq vote presented her as stubborn instead of strong. It
made her sound like Mr. Bush. Progressives don’t trust anyone who sounds like Bush. She also sounds like and represents the old time politicians
progressives are trying to kick out of the party and out of power, with good
reasons. There’s her lobby money and the DLC and all the centrists behind her, too. But Clinton sounds stuck in 20th century language and thinking. And though
people still love Bill and his campaigning is important, Hillary reminds many people of yesterday when everyone wants
to look forward to change. Electing a woman president would be a huge change for this country, but people keep saying Hillary isn’t that woman and a big part of it is that she reminds everyone of the past.
Hey, but now that Hillary’s the official online underdog maybe she’ll surprise us and take
a risk. I assure you no one running against her would dare underestimate her. She’s got the talent and intelligence to do anything she wants.
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