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The first Republican debate is tonight. It will be a
performance of smoke and mirrors and the conjuring up of long dead ghosts. So
do not be seduced. All of the candidates on stage will be mouthing many platitudes, but the real task will be how they handle the person who will not be
in the room. I'm not talking about Fred Thompson or Ronald Reagan either. It's
all about George W. Bush, the Iraq war and the complete and total collapse of
conservatism and the Republican Party, which is now complete. Just read William F. Buckle, Jr. Seriously, if a pro-choice, pro gay rights,
pro preemptive war candidate leads the pack, what's left of the cause of conservatism?
George W. Bush finished it off.
The news for the frontrunner is bad, really, really bad.
Compared to Quinnipiac's last national poll in February, Mr. Giuliani fell
to 27% from 40% — a huge tumble. Mr. Romney barely budged, going to
8% from 7%. Mr. McCain also barely budged, going to 19% from 18%. And Mr.
Thompson burst onto the scene, coming in at 14%, having not been included
in the last poll (and, as usual, stealing third place from Mr. Romney, despite
not having lifted a finger).Q-Poll:
Giuliani Tumbles, Thompson Explodes, McCain Tastes Hope
Romney's got so many problems it's hard to know where to start. But Robert Novak's column today is a beginning, though it's hard to know if Mitt's big issue is Mormonism or Scientology at this point.
That a man who's not even in the race has “burst onto the scene”
shows you the desperation of the Republicans. This is especially true since
they're conjuring up a 20th century man who also believes in Bush's Iraq strategy
to take them into the future. There's no morning in America Reagan rhetoric
anymore among Republicans, unless you spell “mourning” with a “u,”
because all Republicans offer anymore is fear.
But seriously, I'm no fan of John McCain, but in the field of conservatism he's
the only candidate on the stage tonight that has a prayer of representing anything
close to Reagan's ideal, though he, too, falls way short. What kicked off the
conservative movement in Barry Goldwater so many decades ago is long cold and
dead. However, all the candidates could only fall short, because Reagan conservatism
turned out to be nothing more than show over substance, opportunism or competence, rhetoric over policies for the people, an actor saying his
lines representing an image and nothing more.
The ten Republicans on the stage tonight have a huge task. They have to prove
they've learned from the failure of the elephant not in the room, without overtly insulting “the commander guy.” It won't be easy, so instead of invoking their
failed boss it will be all about conjuring up the feelings of someone all Republicans
love, but as history has proven cannot be duplicated, because a campaign of personality alone is anything but a perfect presidential prescription that can be duplicated by others.
As Republican contenders for the presidential nomination gather for their
first debate Thursday night at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and
Museum, they are caught between a rock and a hard place. The vast majority
of Americans have given up on George Bush, the sitting conservative president.
But the die-hards who still support him are loyal Republican primary voters
that no Republican candidate can afford to offend.(snip)
Small government conservatives didn't get much from either president, since
both pushed top-end tax cuts and military spending over balanced budgets.
But both Bush and Reagan cut back on spending on the poor and on domestic
programs. Both disdained the civil servants they were elected to lead. Both
cut back vital infrastructure investments from levees in New Orleans to sewers
in our cities. Both stocked regulatory agencies with corporate lobbyists intent
on gelding the agencies that monitored their former clients. For Reagan, the
scandals ranged from housing to interior. Bush was less lucky, as Katrina
exposed the terrible price of conservative scorn for government. … ..
The Republicans today even excuse Reagan for pulling out of Lebanon, even though
it triggered the orgasmic fantasies of Islamic radicals to think their “Great Satan” could be slaughtered. But even Reagan knew when a cause was lost. Unlike Mr.
Bush, Reagan never lost a war. He also knew that preemptive attacks were for
pussies, otherwise he would have fired on the USSR in the midst of his reign. He did not. Preemptive war remains a Republican prescription for death and destruction,
which includes the gipper's own party.
I voted for Reagan once, in 1980, and none of the men standing on stage tonight is a Ronald Reagan. I wouldn't vote for any of them and you can throw in Fred Thompson for good measure.
But in the end this isn't about Republicans and policies. Any party who disdains
government as much as they do can't be trusted to run it, which has been proven
through Mr. Bush's incompetence from Katrina, to our debt, to the military collapse,
all the way to the cronyism in Iraq, as well as the stubboness that will not allow Mr. Bush and his party to admit Iraq is now for the Iraqis to change on their own. Reagan knew his limitations and was strong enough to see them and admit them. But again, this isn't about policies. It's about conjuring up those old feelings
and emotions that will help Republicans feel like winners again. That's why
they're looking to Fred Thompson as their possible new savior. Because if you
can't win through the strength of your ideas and policies, you might as well
choose someone who can at least play the president. Acting
is all for Republicans at this point. It's all they've got left anymore.
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