Clinton remains the frontrunner, as does Rudy Giuliani right now. The Pew Research
Center has a poll out that is very illuminating. It’s going to cause some campaigns
on both sides whiplash.
Sen. Clinton holds a 51%-43% advantage over Giuliani in a general election
ballot test among all registered voters. Clinton’s lead over Giuliani reflects
her strong backing from women (57%-37%). Giuliani runs slightly ahead of her
among men (49%- 44%). Clinton’s support is strongest among women voters younger
than 50 (60%-36%), while Giuliani’s support is greatest among men in the same
age group (52%-45%). Younger women also are the voting group that most often
says that, apart from their feelings about Clinton, it would be a good thing
to elect a female president. Nearly half (47%) express this opinion, compared
with just 34% of older women and 24% of men.Clinton’s supporters are much more positive about her candidacy than are
Giuliani’s. Roughly three-quarters of voters who favor Clinton (76%) say their
choice is more a vote for the New York senator, compared with 20% who say
their choice is mostly a vote against Giuliani. By contrast, Giuliani’s support
is divided fairly evenly between those who see their choice as a vote for
Giuliani (46%) and those who say it is a vote against Clinton (50%). … ..
As for Clinton’s closest rival, Obama is still a distant second according to
this poll.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People &
the Press, conducted Oct. 17-23 among 2,007 adults, finds that Hillary Clinton
remains the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination. Clinton leads Barack
Obama, her closest rival, 45%-24% among Democratic and Democratic-leaning
registered voters. Clinton holds a substantial advantage over Obama and other
rivals among most key Democratic voter groups, including liberals and African
Americans. College graduates are among the only Democratic groups that splits
its support between Clinton and Obama.
Clinton remains in front, because Mr. Obama simply doesn’t have the
game and continues to prove that point. Maybe that will change before the primaries
kick off, but it hasn’t yet. Edwards’ attacks may allow Obama a bank shot in
Iowa, which will change the dynamics, though it could cost Edwards the whole game.
As for Rudy, he’s got so many problems it’s hard to know where to begin. But
he would be formidable in the general election except, as far as I can tell, he would lose women
by the thousands. His story will only make Clinton, if she’s the nominee, more
powerful with that majority voting block. If Rudy is the nominee there is a very
good possibility that Clinton will indeed get well over 50%, because of the
gender divide, which will be gigantic with ‘Mr. 9/11.’
Watch out for Slick Mitt. He’s not going to go quietly, though right now it’s still Rudy.
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