Foreign Fighters in Iraq
Due to the international dimension of organized crime, which allows these
networks to operate across sovereign borders, no one country defending alone
against them can be assured international and homeland security or safety
from terrorist organizations with criminal links. … .. TraCCC
Via Lorelei
Kelly, a new breakdown of Iraq and the foreign fighters stirring up trouble
in that country has come down through the Counterterrorism Center of West Point,
by way of Special Operations Command. Kelly has a post up at Democracy Arsenal about the Sinjar Records, which were captured last year near the northern border
of Iraq close to Syria. Two authors out of West Point, Brian Fishman and Joseph
Felter, have begun to analyze the data, calling the subsequent report “Al
Qaida’s Foreign Fighters in Iraq” (pdf). Interesting data, to say the
least.
As I talked about with Damon Terrill on Tuesday, our relationship with the
Saudis, obviously because of our mutual dependence, us on the oil, them on our
money, is fraught with conflict, but we’re stuck with each other. As Kelly
points out in her post driving the point home, Saudis are the most active foreign fighters in Iraq,
though it does depend on how you measure it. They’re also an important balance in the region at this point as well.
Via Fishman and Felter’s analysis (pdf):
- Saudis make up the largest contingent of foreign fighters entering Iraq.
Libyans were second (first if measured in percapita terms) and Syrians a distant
third. In terms of sheer numbers, Saudis constituted the largest group of
foreign fighters and contributed the most overall suicide bombers, but the
percentage of Saudi fighters listed as suicide bombers was actually lower
than non-Saudis.- Recent political developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the prevalence
of Libyan fighters in Iraq, and evidence of a well-established smuggling route
for Libyans through Egypt, suggests that Libyan factions (primarily the Libyan
Islamic Fighting Group) are increasingly important in al-Qa’ida. The Sinjar
Records offer some evidence that Libyans began surging into Iraq in largers
numbers beginning in May 2007. Most of the Libyan recruits came from cities
in North-East Libya, an area long known for jihadi-linked militancy. Libyan
fighters were much more likely than other nationalisitied to be listed as
suicide bombers (85% for Libyans, 56% for all others).- The Sinjar Records reinforce anecdotal accounts suggesting that al-Qa’ida’s
Iraqi affiliates rely on smugglers and criminals–rather than their own personnel–to
funnel recruits into Iraq.
Also in the West Point analysis by Fishman and Felter is the reality that the
majority of fighters are students, with universities becoming a dynamic recruiting
tool of al-Qa’ida.
Not surprisingly, al-Qa’ida relies heavily on “criminal and smuggling
networks” The motive of these mercenaries is seen as an obvious route through which the U.S. can “co-opt” them by providing financial incentives and other guarantees to “secure cooperation from some smugglers.”
Financial desperation is leading the region to ruin. At some point we will
have to find another way to engage these countries and the people who are using
war as a means to survival. Or maybe I’m just dreaming. After all, when you
look at the Pentagon, that beast requires a lot of fuel, which at this point
in our history only works at the point of war. It’s also where all of this begins.
Iraq’s border issue is priority number one. It’s country integrity 101. Yet
here we are years after “mission accomplished” with the same challenges.
Who has the wisdom to put us on a different path should guide your vote in the
primary. As for solving the whole of what we face in the region, nothing will
happen unless we reform the Pentagon, which is beyond any one politician’s force
to fix. That gets lost in all the campaigning.
But as Terrill and I talked about, at least Democrats have a cohesive view of U.S. foreign policy, while the Republicans, and these are my words not Terrill’s, take each episode or crisis separately from a whole theory of national security. If you care about our role in the world the only vote you can cast is Democratic, whether your candidate wins the nomination or not.
The issues revolving around Iraq are so much more complicated than the current
U.S. dialogue, which has slowed to a whisper recently. The more I read about
it all the more I realize how stupid all the pontificating is, because when
you get into the details, no one is really dealing with the mess we’re in. Going
in to Iraq was such a colossal disaster sometimes my research and the more I learn renders me mute as to what to do with the mess. That’s when my thoughts always turn towards Senator Joe Biden. However this comes down, Biden has got to end up somewhere at the top of the decision making come 2009. Otherwise I just don’t know where all this will end.
The report highlights some key distinctions that organizations like TRACC
have long pointed out, that criminal networks have different motivations,
some are led by greed and others by blind ideology. Further, that detecting,
monitoring, and probing the nexus of transnational criminal and terrorist
operations can provide opportunities to disrupt global criminal activities
and pre-empt terrorist operations. So we might be able to pick off the greedy
ones and get some good information from them to boot; that the religious fundamentalists
linked with Al Qaida can’t deliver the practical needs of disgruntled citizens
(like Iraqis) and one possible strategic advantage for us is to step in and
fill the vacuum in basic services and human
security when disllusionment sets in; that dealing with supply chain management
is an important part of thwarting violent jihadists–because countries like
Libya gladly ship their heavy breathing militants to Iraq just to get rid
of them at home. So, we should be working with those countries and cooperating
to the extent possible to help them address internal violence and promote
rule of law (note: preventive and cooperative aid, including fresh and different
kinds of security assistance is a huge albeit unheralded trend in policy circles
in the DC defense wonk world..) The other striking result was the prevalence
of students, and groups of students from the same hometowns…meaning that
they are likely recruited together. – Lorelei
Kelly, Democracy Arsenal
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