All Eyes On New Hampshire

Liberation? We can only hope so.

Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic national committeeman and major Clinton supporter from Long Island, N.Y., echoed what many in the Clinton camp were saying overnight. “Being the underdog will be very liberating,” he said. That is a far cry from the Clinton strategy of proclaiming her the inevitable victor.

Get down to it.

Added another adviser: “You’re going to see some very sharp media now.” That suggests the next round of Clinton ads will go beyond the previous gentle references to Obama’s lack of experience and begin to look at, for instance, inconsistency in his voting record. They are looking at issues like gun control, where he previously took a harder stand that may not play well with gun-loving voters in New Hampshire, and health care, where he previously expressed support for a government-run health care system. Clinton plans to exploit every whiff of inconsistency.

Lots to talk about on a special post-mortem Iowa edition of the show. Hope
you can join me.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton claimed one fewer delegate than Sen. Barack Obama in the Iowa caucuses Thursday night, but she still has the lead in the overall race for delegates because she has a commanding lead among superdelegates. The Democratic National Committee has allotted states a total of 796 superdelegates to the party’s national convention this summer. Those delegates, mainly members of Congress, other elected officials and DNC members, are free to support any candidate at the convention, regardless of the outcomes of the primaries and caucuses. Most superdelegates contacted by the AP before the Iowa caucuses were undecided. However, among those who have endorsed a candidate, Clinton leads with 160, compared to 59 for Obama and 32 for former Sen. John Edwards. Those numbers could change dramatically if Obama continues to win at the ballot box, which could lead to more endorsements by superdelegates. An AP analysis of the Iowa caucus results showed Obama winning 16 delegates, followed by Clinton with 15 and Edwards with 14. In the overall race for delegates, Clinton leads with 175, followed by Obama with 75 and Edwards with 46. A total of 2,025 delegates is needed to secure the Democratic nomination. Clinton still leads in overall delegate race, despite losing in Iowa

New Hampshire is next Tuesday. Short analysis: Clinton has to win. The polls show her ahead, but the information was gathered before the Iowa results came in. Look for the first polls and what they say, because it’s a snapshot of what she faces. Debate tomorrow matters. Everyone will be watching.

I will leave you with one thing to ponder. I’ve been saying it for over a decade. People vote on emotion, not issues or substance. That was proven last night on both sides of the political aisle. Biden and Dodd got creamed. Clinton lost by 8% points, though only one when Democrats alone are counted. Richardson got a pass because he pandered to the anti Iraq war crowd, getting votes that Edwards should have gotten if he’d stayed on message. Clinton is as good as they come, but she’s got to get into it now. “Above the fray,” which is just another phrase for “inevitability,” has been blown away. Obama if the most vulnerable candidate we have for the general because of his gun ban stance of the 1990s, his “present” votes that will be mined continually by Republicans, his inexperience next to John McCain, which will be laughable, especially if we experience something like what recently happened in Pakistan. The gloves have to come off, because Mr. Obama, even as talented as he is, just isn’t ready for general election primetime.