Democrats are Not Choosing Obama

Mark Penn has
a memo up that you’ve likely already seen. As the Edwards camp did last night,
he’s rebutting the foundation of the DMR poll.

UPDATE: Two new Iowa polls are out today. In the Zogby poll, it’s Clinton 30, Obama 26, Edwards 25. In the CNN/Opinion Research poll, Hillary leads with 33 percent, Obama 31, Edwards 22. The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race. When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls. .. … .. Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/29: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22 Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26 Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22 Research 2000, 12/26-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29 ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24

But when you put the DMR poll in the mix independents rule. So as much as the
other polls weigh in another direction from the DMR, it’s because they’re weighing
Democrats, but the DMR poll is not. You’ve really got to wonder what is going
on in Iowa. Nothing good for if you want the Democratic party nominee to be
chosen by Democrats. But as I’ve illustrated over months, Obama isn’t trying
to win over Democrats. That doesn’t matter to him. He wants to win over people,
anyone, and he’ll do it at the expense of Al Gore, John Kerry. Markos
posts on Obama slamming Gore today, the story I broke, and in his piece he quotes Trippi taking out after Obama over the Gore comment. Insert yawn here. Trippi waking from slumber doesn’t
impress me. But it’s not only Gore who is Obama’s target, he’s also has gone
after the backbone of the Democratic party: unions and by extension the entire
middle class. The Republicans must me dancing. Via
Ben Smith:

And top union officials who support Obama’s rivals are in turn accusing the Illinois Democrat, who once sought their endorsements, of trying to damage labor’s political role. “I’m taken aback that somebody like Obama would think that Oprah Winfrey has a greater right to participate in the political process than the 4 million people I represent,” Edward J. McElroy, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, which has spent $799,619 on New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s behalf, said, referring to the television host’s high-profile support for Obama. “It’s sour grapes. It sounds just like the charges the Republicans make.” Gerald W. McEntee, the president of the other major union supporting Clinton, wrote on The Huffington Post that “the Obama campaign’s criticism of our political action committee and some of the so-called 527 efforts, such as the one organized in support of [John] Edwards, is troubling because they are suggesting that workers are somehow a special interest, just like insurance companies and the pharmaceutical industry.” “We fight for the general interest,” wrote McEntee, whose American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has spent $1,409,312 boosting Clinton and criticizing Obama. … ..

One word for Thursday: turnout. It’s the whole ballgame.