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Clinton was in town yesterday
and she created quite a splash in a very short amount of time. I was invited
to join her yesterday, but our phone calls crossed and schedules collided so
it didn’t work out. Next week I will join her and follow the campaign as they
make their case here. Tomorrow I will spend part of the day with Valerie Plame
and former ambassador Joseph Wilson, who will be in Las Vegas talking national
security, as well as doing other events for the Clinton campaign. Joe invited
me along and it will be a great way to spend part of a Saturday.
Everybody is guessing where things stand in Nevada. I don’t quite understand
the idea that it’s tied here, as some have suggested. But most people chiming in simply don’t know what they’re talking about when it comes to Nevada. The last poll taken
had Clinton up by 18 points, but no doubt that has shifted. Jon Ralston doesn’t
think polls matter at all right now because no one can predict who will attend
the caucus. That’s the bottom line.
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Fresh from a New Hampshire
drubbing, many have decided not to poll the Nevada caucuses. I live in the state, but I do not claim any
special knowledge, because I don’t do state or local politics, but also because
I spend a lot of time looking outward, intending to find a new place to land
my radio show. But I can say that the talk going on about the union endorsements
has a 50-50 chance of playing out in the caucus, especially with Clinton
challenging the endorsement by going to the members themselves.
As for me, if I were a betting person there’s one person I’d bet on for caucus
day. Not one blogger outside of Nevada has mentioned his name. Rory Reid, Harry
reid’s son. I interviewed him during the nurse’s strike. He’s a soft spoken
man, but no one knows Nevada better, has deeper contacts or a stronger operation.
From what I’m hearing he’s working his heart and soul out for Clinton, directing
efforts here in Nevada. Anybody who bets against a Reid in Nevada is playing
against the house.
It’s also clear that Clinton not only likes the small, intimate groups, but
she’s repeating that model in the Silver State. Her appeal here is real.
Clinton and her busload of traveling press moved from there to the popular
local Mexican restaurant Lindo Michoacan, where a “roundtable” that
was actually square passed a microphone around to tell her people’s concerns
about the mortgage crisis and foreclosures. She took notes and munched on
tortilla chips.In broken English, one woman told Clinton how she wasn’t making money as
a broker anymore.“I have no income at all,” she said. “So how will I survive?”
Choking up with emotion, the woman said, “In my neighborhood, there
are brand-new homes, but the value is nothing. I’m glad you are here so I
can tell you, because you’re going to be the president, I know.”A man shouted through an opening in the wall that his wife was illegal.
“No woman is illegal,” Clinton said, to cheers.
Summing it up at the end, Clinton said, “We’ve only talked to a few
people, but each of them talk about some part of the problem we are confronting.
This is a problem that is only going to get worse if we don’t address it.”Clinton said unscrupulous lending leads to bad mortgages, which lead to foreclosures,
which lead to people with nowhere to go and vacant neighborhoods that can
go rapidly downhill. read on …
A note about Nevada in general. Unions in Las Vegas aren’t the same as in other places.
Nevada has a very large illegal immigration challenge, which most lawmakers
ignore as a nod to business and construction in the state, especially in Las
Vegas. You cannot go by a construction site and not see the influx. Unions are
working hard to get a foothold and I covered the nurse’s strike that ended well,
but the general populace is not devoutly union. However, union members will
likely be the ones to caucus, which is the point. There is also a very strong Ron Paul contingent in the state. I wrote about it when my husband’s side of the family, who are Mormon, came to our house during the Christmas season.
Clinton’s case is also helped
significantly by Rep. Shelley Berkley who is beloved in the state, as well as by Hispanics. The campaign has also expanded a bit since Richardson, who says he will not endorse, dropped out. But then
again, it may simply come down to the operation Rory Reid’s run all out from the start. Obama is outspending Clinton too, and he is helped by the unions, no doubt, but Clinton’s not at any disadvantage at all. It’s quite likely Reid’s reach could balance out the unions. It depends on who actually turns up at the caucus. Being on a Saturday certainly helps.
Oh, and to add, Clinton will be on “Meet the Press” this Sunday.
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