The Frontrunner
… .. But whatever challenges Mrs. Clinton faces, she has repeatedly proved to be a resourceful candidate with a sharp campaign organization and a passionate base of supporters. Should she win in Ohio and Texas, she could halt Mr. Obama’s claim to momentum and keep the race for pledged delegates from breaking against her. And there has been a history in this campaign of Mr. Obama winning, only to have Mrs. Clinton return and win.
“You can’t make a judgment until Ohio and Texas,” said Jonathan Prince, who was a senior adviser to John Edwards of North Carolina, who quit the race two weeks ago. “In this campaign, every time he has surged ahead, voters take a pause. If momentum keeps slamming into a wall, than you do have to come down to the numbers.” … ..
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Barack Obama crushed Clinton in the Potomac primaries, winning Virginia by
close to a two to one margin. He’s got more money. His staff isn’t being shuffled, with two of Clinton’s web team resigning yesterday, as did Mike Henry, following Patti
Solis Doyle out. According to the AP, Guy Cecil is expected to succeed Henry. It’s hard to imagine last night being
worse for Clinton. Losses were expected, but these numbers have to be tough for the Clinton team to swallow.
Obama beat
McCain with independents.
But the worst news for Clinton, according to CNN’s figures, is that he
cut in to her base of women, according to exit polls. Clinton
did win white women by around 10 points in Virginia, 13 points in Maryland,
though that’s a lot less than Super Tuesday when her margin was 25%.
Two-thirds of the men in both Virginia and Maryland went to Obama.
Clinton lost
Latino voters to Obama too, though it was less of a hurt because they’re
numbers in these primaries were only 4-5%.
But now Obama officially has more delegates, however you count them.
In the overall race for the nomination, Obama had 1,223, including separately
chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Clinton had 1,198.
– AP
CNN
also has him ahead by similar margins, 1215 – 1190.
Obama’s got everything going for him right now, including momentum. There’s
only one thing he doesn’t have and that’s more scrutiny. Yet.
However, one thing caught my ear. Howard Fineman on MSNBC (rough transcript):
“In talking to top officials on both the Obama campaign and the Clinton
campaign, here’s what I think is going on behind the scenes. The bottom line
is that I think both would agree it’s highly unlikely, both sides would agree,
it’s highly unlikely that Hillary Clinton is going to finish this primary
season with a lead in pledged delegates. Virtually impossible. … ..”
– Howard Fineman
Going forward, job one for Clinton is to keep the delegate count tight, including in Wisconsin.
But John King of CNN doesn’t see either Obama or Clinton getting to the magic number
needed for the nomination by the end of it all. Confusion seems obvious on all fronts.
Superdelegates will now come into play, but there’s also Michigan and Florida. Somebody in charge better get a firm grip, because these forces could collide.
Obama picked up more delegates than anyone anticipated last night. Going in, there was even some speculation Clinton had a chance to do well in Virginia,
but that turned to dust.
Now we get to see how Obama does as a front-runner. His speech last night was a pivot to the general election. Clinton
was no longer the target, it was McCain all the way, in a speech that was a
real rambler. He needs to tighten this stuff up, though his fans sure don’t care. Compared to McCain, if this is the match up, there’s no rhetorical contest at all.
As for Clinton, in a speech from El Paso, Texas in front of 12,000 people, she went after Bush.
“There’s a great saying in Texas,” she said, “all hat and no cattle. Well after seven years of George Bush, we need a lot less hat and lot more cattle.”
It was clear she was also talking about Obama. It won’t be the last time. It fits.
Tough going ahead for Clinton, but also for Obama as well, only for different reasons. The gloves will come off, if only subtly and more pointedly. Clinton is left with no other choice. As for Obama, he’s now going to have to tread on territory where he’s weakest. Defining himself. Better to do it now before the Republicans do it for him.
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