 |
| by Paul Szep |
Lots of speculation these days about the general election, thinking about who
stands up best against John McCain. The polls don’t mean diddly right now. Obama
wasn’t anywhere near Clinton’s numbers six months ago, so that shows you how
things can change. But one thing some people seem to be feeling is that late
1970s feeling all over again. It’s a bad omen.
First, Ron Brownstein:
That’s the gamble Obama represents for Democrats: His upside potential as
a nominee (or a president) seems higher than Clinton’s, but his downside risk
seems greater. For better or worse, Democrats pretty much know what they are
getting if they nominate Hillary Clinton. As nominee, or president, Barack Obama
might fall anywhere between John F. Kennedy and Jimmy Carter. The first would
likely beat John McCain. The second would not.
Brownstein isn’t the only one thinking about Jimmy Carter, segue to Paul Krugman:
… .. Until recently, I thought the biggest political struggle facing the
next president was likely to be over health care reform. But right now it
looks as if the first thing on the next administration’s plate will
have to be dealing with a weak economy.And if effective action isn’t forthcoming, the next president will
suffer the fate of Jimmy Carter, who began his administration with words of
uplift — “Let us create together a new national spirit of unity
and trust” — and ended up delivering America into the hands of
the hard right.
Food for thought, after Carter’s first term, a new type of Democrat was born,
Reagan Democrats. People disaffected by Carter, who seemed out of touch and unable to solve our biggest problems at home or on national security. These were the working class whites that Clinton now gets,
but Obama doesn’t reach, though he did a lot better in Wisconsin. If Obama’s
the nominee up against McCain, however, who gets those working class whites,
the people now called “lunch bucket Democrats?” I think they’re up
for grabs and that’s a big problem for the Democratic party. Because it puts
Ohio in play, Pennsylvania maybe, with Florida already going to McCain after the
DNC’s shenanigans.
Back in 1980, I was one of those Reagan Democrats (however short-lived). Like I said, all this 70s talk, even in the midst of the current Democratic wave going on, is a bad omen.
Comments are closed.