BY TAYLOR MARSH
Terrific layout of the race from Charlie Cook. If you’ve got links to back it up, share them.
Three days and counting, folks. I’ll be around all weekend, with Scott jumping in on Sunday, too. It will be fun.
Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.
Archive | October, 2008
Halloween Free For All
BY TAYLOR MARSH
Chill the beer.
Shake the martinis.
Get the candy ready.
…and beware the knock at your door.
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Kitty Fake Out Suckers El Rushbo
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| Lady Lynn Speaks |
Oh, I just cannot stop laughing. Rush has been had. He’s still believing the
kitties can save McCain.
Now, another thing, the last caller is a fed-up old Democrat, wants to go
with McCain. McCain’s worked with Democrats, doesn’t like Obama, thinks Obama
is a socialist, thinks Obama is an extremist. Talking about the gut here.
Talk about information overload. You don’t know what to believe anymore. One
of the websites that I track is called HillBuzz. Well, it’s HillBuzz.wordpress.com.
Now, this is a website ostensibly run by a bunch of women who want Obama to
lose so that Hillary will have a chance in 2012. You ought to see this site.
I mean, they’ve got McCain winning Iowa, they’ve got McCain winning Maine,
they’ve got McCain winning New Hampshire, they’ve got him winning Ohio, they’ve
got him winning Florida, on the basis that the media is not uncovering the
depth of anger in the Democrat Party at Obama. And one of the reasons that
these babes at Hill Buzz — this is what they say. Now, I’m your host. I gotta
digest all this, and it’s a website, I don’t know who these people are, and
I don’t know if what they’re saying is true. It’s anecdotal information on
a website.
The
Corner regurgitates it.
What if it’s really close? [Lisa Schiffren]
Rush Limbaugh highlighted this yesterday, and it’s subsequently getting picked
up on the blogosphere today. It is, putatively, the work of a repentant Hillary
staffer who moved to the Obama campaign and is appalled by what she’s learned
of their deviousness and scheming, and a little ashamed of the way they tried
to destroy Sarah Palin. The piece is not sourced — so it’s not clear
who wrote it, or, therefore, the goal. But it makes two interesting points;
one, that the O campaign understood Palin as an asset rather than a drag from
the start. Two — that, according to internal polls, many swing states
are much closer than public polls indicate, some perhaps leaning right, partly
because conservatives don’t talk to pollsters — on the phone or at the
exit. The perhaps real blogger makes the clearly true point that there has
been a concerted effort to psych out Republicans and suppress McCain votes.
Not entirely new news — but an interesting, telling summary….
Denial on steroids.
Even if McCain could pull out a miracle win, it wouldn’t be because of anti
Obama Clintonites. All of us, to the tune of 99.9%, are voting O-Biden. …and nobody has worked harder than Hillary, with her efforts culminating in over $10 million for Obama, the strongest performance of any near nominee in Democratic political history.
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Petraeus Sworn in as CENTCOM Commander
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| via ABC News |
General
Petraeus becomes responsible not only for overseeing military operations
in Iraq, where he still views recent gains as extremely fragile, but for a
strategic crescent that includes Afghanistan, where violence has increased
markedly since last year. The area of responsibility also includes Pakistan,
Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the former Soviet republics of Central
Asia.
After the U.S. Raid in Syria, the first ever, I found this story quite interesting.
Apparently Gen. David Petraeus does not agree with the Bush administration
that the road to Damascus is a dead end.ABC News has learned, Petraeus proposed visiting Syria shortly after taking
over as the top U.S. commander for the Middle East….
This was before the strike. Evidently, the politically astute Petraeus wanted
to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran. Now, the strike has complicated everything.
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Adding weight to Petraeus’ argument is outgoing Israeli PM Olmert who also wants to engage Syria, at least indirectly.
Ironically, though some progressives will be reticent to accept Petraeus’ motives,
he actually might do very well under an Obama administration, which is going
to be pressing hard on engagement, with the military turning its focus, shifting around 30-50,000 troops to Afghanistan, on which I agree. A policy that also
irks some progressives.
Though let’s be clear. Military presence in Afghanistan isn’t enough. The real issue is Pakistan, which Obama knows all too well, as does Joe Biden. On that note, another strike in Pakistan has been reported by the BBC.
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Lawrence Eagleberger on Palin: ‘Of Course’ She’s Not Ready
BY TAYLOR MARSH
I took untold amounts of grief when I went after Palin when she was picked. “Sexism”
was the charge I received in hate emails. But it’s not sexism to reject a woman
who is offered an opportunity when she’s not remotely qualified for the job.
Former
Secrectary of State Lawrence Eagleburger has put any notions that Palin
was a good pick to be one heart beat away from the presidency to rest.
Lawrence Eagleburger, who served as Secretary of State under George H.W.
Bush and whose endorsement is often trumpeted by McCain, said on Thursday
that the Alaska governor is not only unprepared to take over the job on a
moment’s notice but, even after some time in office, would only amount to
an “adequate” commander in chief.“And I devoutly hope that [she] would never be tested,” he added
for good measure — referring both to Palin’s policy dexterity and the idea
of McCain not making it through his time in office. (Listen to audio at
this link.)…
There is no doubt we’ll hear from Palin after this election, assuming Obama
wins. But she’ll have a monumental task of rehabilitating herself before anyone
will consider her for the top spot on the ticket. She’s also got her own problems
in Alaska waiting for her when she returns. Karma, baby. You betcha.
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Liddy Dole’s ‘Godless’ Ad Hands Kay Hagan a Lead
BY TAYLOR MARSH
From McClatchy:
“When you’re making ads that say, ‘There is no God,’ it usually means
your campaign doesn’t have a prayer,” said Alex Castellanos, a GOP consultant
speaking Thursday on CNN. He’s familiar with controversial ads — he
created former Sen. Jesse Helms’ infamous “white hands” ad suggesting
opponent Harvey Gantt supported racial quotas that would take away jobs from
white people.Rollins, a longtime GOP political adviser, told CNN: “They did
something desperate, which is so despicable and so un-like Elizabeth Dole
that she should be ashamed of herself.”[...] A new Rasmussen poll, taken Wednesday after the Dole ad began airing,
showed Hagan ahead of Dole 52-46. A new survey by Civitas,
taken Monday through Wednesday, showed Hagan up by a smaller margin. …
Bring it home, North Carolina.
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The Finale in Florida
BY TAYLOR MARSH
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Al Gore is a hero to me and I’m sure I’m not alone. He meets up with Barack Obama in Florida later today, campaigning with him this weekend. It’s a fitting finale to what has been quite a few days for Obama.
“Nobody knows better that every single vote counties — especially in Florida — than Vice President Al Gore,” Obama state director Steve Schale said in a written statement. Gore will be urging people to vote early “so no amount of chads, butterflies or undervotes can stand between Floridians and the change we need.”
Gore is part of a stronger-than-expected Obama push in Florida. The Illinois Democrat has held three rallies in less than 24 hours, with 35,000 people showing up on an unseasonably cold night in Kissimmee on Wednesday to see him campaign with former president Bill Clinton.
Polls show a close race in a state where a victory would likely seal Obama’s capture of the White House eight years after Gore fell agonizingly short.
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The Rashid Khalidi, Iran, Anti Israel Bogeymen
updated
Let’s start with Juan Cole‘s “McCain Racism, Hypocrisy on Khalidi Issue.” He gives an explanation that is continually ignored no matter how many people point it out.
The rightwing American way of speaking about these issues is bizarre from
a Middle Eastern point of view. Lots of real living Israelis have close ties
to actually existing Palestinians. There are 12 Palestinian members of the
Israeli Knesset, and they have helped keep the Kadima government in power.
Here is PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas with current Israeli Prime Minister Tzipi
Livni; Livni has repeatedly negotiated with the PLO as foreign minister of
Israel. McCain’s entire line of attack assumes that Palestinian equals “bad”
and ignores Israel’s and the Bush administration’s support for the PLO against
Hamas.
The problem with the Khalidi, according to camp McCain, revolves around anti-Semitism. Shorter: McCain’s behind so they’re playing the Israel card, with Khalidi the route. Just listen to Mike Goldfarb, a McCain spokesman, try to weave this web, which leads him to a ghost.
What we’re dealing with on this side of the pond is neoconservative delusion
meeting up with the Rapture contingent spit out through politics. Sorry to be
disrespectful of the religious fundamentalists, but when their greater fantasy
meets up with our even greater urgency of dealing with the Palestinian and Israeli
stalemate, I have no patience. Even Olmert thinks the notion of a “greater
Israel” is an idea whose time has passed.
The Khalidi smear is born out of this delusion, brought to a boil over the
figment of an Iran image that is dangerous for this country and our prospects
for peace and security in the world, but also for a foreign policy that engages
and solves challenges in a region that cries out for solutions. That we’ve got
bigger problems percolating in Pakistan and the tribal regions is a subject I’ll leave
for another day.
Khalidi is the face of the right-wing’s Israel card that McCain, Palin and
their surrogates, as well as their radio barkers, are playing in order to scare
people into thinking that Obama is something he’s not. It’s a way they can sew
doubt and drape the anti Israel cape around him. As Sullivan also pointed out, this McCain ad comes complete with what’s meant to be menacing music of that other culture.
The now infamous Khalidi tape that the L.A. Times has but won’t release
further aides the wingnut image fearmongers, because it teases that there’s
something to hide and the evil liberal media is helping hide it. There is no
evidence whatsoever that the Khalidi tape has anything noteworthy on it.
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| via Huffington Post |
Since newspapers are in the business of breaking big stories, if they had anything
juicy they’d have reported on it. Oh, except Obama appearing at an event with
a Palestinian scholar. That’s Obama’s “crime.” Hanging around with
thinkers, intellectuals, a pro Palestinian man. The L.A. Times is very unlikely to release
the tape, because they got it on condition that they wouldn’t. Burning sources
is a very bad habit for reporters and journalists to get into.
No one on the neoconservative side seems to understand that in order to get
peace you need a relationship with the Palestinians, as well as the Israelis.
Not one of animosity, but of mutual need, if nothing else. The irony is that
Bush made all this much harder when he pushed the PLO for elections, with the
outcome that Hamas won out. But they were elected. Even John McCain admitted
that because of this we’d have to deal with it during an
interview last summer with Jamie Rubin:
Rubin: Do you think the American diplomats should be operating the way they
have in the past, working with Palestinian government if Hamas is now in charge?McCain: They are the government, sooner or later we are going to have to
deal with them, one way or another [...]
This is the usual, It’s Okay If A Republican Offers To Talk To Hamas, because
they’re the Serious Ones on foreign policy and national security, but if a Democrat
decides to talk with our adversaries to find common ground we’re “soft,”
“anti American,” etc. When you have Israel involved, coupled with a man who actually knows a Palestinian, well, it’s swiftboating mana from heaven for McCain and his allies.
John McCain is shaking the Khalidi tree, giving permission to Sarah Palin and their supporters to do the same, just as Republican 527s unleash unholy swiftboating ads throughout the battleground states. Conservative bloggers have been trying to stir up a ruckus
over it for days. If it doesn’t work for the election, maybe they can delegitimize
Obama going forward? The trolls are going to be very busy.
UPDATED: The Washington Post has a terrific editorial on Rashid Khalidi that’s important for people to read.
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Barack Gives the Big Dawg His Due (much to Fox’s irritation)
continued from last night in Florida…
“Couldn’t be better. Thank you,” said Barack as he stood and embraced
Bill.
But Fox News is still trying to push the rift, as did Sean Hannity today on his radio show. They just can’t handle the truth.
“In case you all forgot, this is what it’s like to have a great president,”
Obama continued, pointing at William Jefferson Clinton.
“It is such an honor and a privilege to be joined here tonight by a great
president, a great statesman, a great supporter in our campaign to change America,
Bill Clinton. Give it up!”
…and they did.
“Nobody, nobody, makes the case for change that works for the middle
class like President Bill Clinton. Nobody. And while I’m at it I
also want to say just a little something about Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton
— applause — because I learned from her and President Clinton as a candidate.
I’m proud to call them my friends. I know how much we’ll need both Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton in the months and years to come. Florida, I think you’ll
all agree with me that we all wish that the last eight years looked a lot more like
the Clinton years when he was in the White House.” – Barack Obama
He went on…
“When you listen to Bill Clinton you are reminded of what it’s like to
have a president who’s engaged, who’s passionate, who’s smart, who reaches out,
who’s inclusive instead of divisive. Who has energy, who has vision and you
start getting kind of nostalgic about 22 million new jobs and a budget surplus,
and an economy that’s working for everybody. And that’s why we can’t have four
more years just like the last eight years we’ve just had. It’s time for the
type of peace and prosperity that we saw in the 1990′s. …”
Then he said “two words: six days.”
Now it’s down to four.
Keep working. The other side certainly is.
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BWAAAAAAAHAAAHAAA
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The Letter
BY TAYLOR MARSH
There are a lot of polls out there. I don’t do poll analysis, but I found this letter highly amusing. The information isn’t bad, especially considering what Fox Opinion Dynamics hoisted today. It might help you a bit, too.
Using your last four days of tracking polls in your battleground states and your underlying analysis you conclude that “this is a hard election to predict” because of the unprecedented interest and likely turnout, and that “all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.” You get there by underscoring a number of emerging patterns – “what we know for sure.” First, “The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking.” Second, that the campaign is “functionally tied across the battleground states.” Third, “the key number in our mind is Senator Obama’s level of support,” which is dropping below 50 percent, with good reason to believe that Obama “gets what he gets in the tracking” – with few prospects of more votes from the undecided, African Americans or turnout patterns. Fourth, that Obama’s margin over McCain is “beginning to approach margin of error with a week left.” Fifth, McCain is achieving breakthroughs with “soft Democrats,” “Wal-Mart women” and an “impressive pop” with independents. And finally, that “Joe the Plumber” has astounding recognition and changed the debate on taxes and the economy.
All of us at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner were in awe of the boldness of these assertions, as they, we are sure, honestly reflect the data, show a nuanced use of language and topics, and weave a story that almost gets to the conclusions that this race is opening up, unpredictable, and closing, without formally saying those things. What is interesting is that some of the findings match ours, but with a fuller picture, take us to a different close. read on
We wanted to take this opportunity to discuss the “things we know for sure” – this time using the battleground polls that we completed yesterday.
As for why the McCain-Palin camp is “unusually upbeat,” I have no earthly idea.
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Liddy Dole is a Liar and She’s Just Been Sued
BY TAYLOR MARSH
Kay Hagan responds to Liddy Dole’s “godless” ad.
Just learned that Hagan has filed a defamation suit against Elizabeth Dole.
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Al Qaeda Wants Bush ‘Humiliated’
BY TAYLOR MARSH
–updated–
I think this has already been done.
An al Qaeda leader has called for President George W. Bush and the Republicans to be “humiliated,” without endorsing any party in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, according to a video posted on the Internet.
Bush did it to himself. Look at Iraq. Look at Iran’s rise. Look at the economy. Humiliation? Mission accomplished.
To add… Bin Laden video to follow.
From my friends at the National Security Network:
Washington, DC — The National Security Network today released this statement by Richard Clarke, former National Coordinator for Counter-terrorism on the National Security Council, on the new al Qaeda video. “The intention and intelligence value of this video at this time is still unclear and we shouldn’t jump to conclusions. But we should be mindful that Al Qaeda has attempted to influence elections in the past to magnify the media coverage of their terrorist activities and reminding us they are still around. Even more disturbing is the fact that Abu Yahya al-Libi should never have been able to make this statement in the first place, if the Bush administration had done its job and kept him from escaping Bagram Air Force base.”
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Delusions
BY TAYLOR MARSH
Palin’s not prepared, but the McCain camp’s cowardice is worse.
The tape fixation continues.
Fox, keeping hope alive.
The senator with whom I once shared a float remains in fantasy land.
The antidote? Two words: Francis Fukuyama.
Poison pill: Contract for America, Take Two.
And I’m not quite sure if this is just crass or racist or both.
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Daughter of Slave Votes for Obama
BY TAYLOR MARSH
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| via American-Statesman photo by Larry Kolvoord |
At long last it’s come to pass.
Amanda Jones, 109, the daughter of a man born into slavery, has lived a life long enough to touch three centuries. And after voting consistently as a Democrat for 70 years, she has voted early for the country’s first black presidential nominee.
This story reminded me of the night I sat in Invesco Field next to an African American man and his friends. When Obama was introduced and walked on to the stage, he just talked under his breath, obviously in astonished disbelief and feeling the greatest of joys.
If we can elect Barack Obama it won’t end racial divisions, but it will go a giant step towards healing a great national wound.
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Golden Fields Set On Fire
BY TAYLOR MARSH
It wasn’t something I was certain would work. Oh, I knew Barack Obama could
pull it off. He’s got game. But I just wasn’t sure I was ready for a 30-minute
presidential infomercial. Well, that’s not all Obama and his team had in mind.
The second the golden fields were shown and the music began, followed by the
open road, I knew they got what needed to be done.
Across the plains of this great country there are families that are in deep
trouble looking for a line to pull them out. I’m not just talking about a financial
line, but a sliver of hope that someone somewhere in a position to do something
about where this country is headed understands that all they’ve got is their
beliefs in this great land.
Sounds hokey, huh?
Some weighing in said the music
was too much. That Obama didn’t talk about how he’d pay for what he wants to
offer Americans. But America has never been about balance sheets on an accounting
grid. America is about something deeper, something we hold in our hearts and our minds. It is an idea.
Whether you get Obama’s candidacy or can appreciate what he is trying to say,
you had to watch last night’s epic tale of America’s present state hoping that
this just might be the guy who can rip away the festering negativity and unending
dismally small mentality of the people who currently have a grip on this nation’s
reality. Something’s just got to give and maybe this is our moment of liberation
from the downward spiral.
That’s when Obama said we’d have to be part of what he wants to do. That we
are responsible for it too.
The children, the families, the heartache of life’s disappointments and dreams
dismembered by reality all reminded me once again of why I’m a Democrat. Because
we believe we are responsible, including that we are our sister’s keeper, our
brother’s extra helping hand.
By contrast, you have the McCain-Palin crew who just don’t get it. They don’t
understand that Americans are looking for a yellow brick road away from all
things Bush, all things destructive to The Dream. Reminding them, as the McCain-Palin cronies do in the ads presented in this post,
of all the things wrong with where we are today isn’t going to win anything, except
a prize for tone deafness and the most cynical souls who have missed the most important
moment in modern history when Americans went looking to find that “shining
city on a hill” that Republicans took eight years, plus a few more in the
1990′s, to burn to the ground.
Contrasts on focus. People take the path away from darkness and towards the
glistening light every time, but especially when presented with the same path that didn’t work before.
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Bill Clinton and Barack Obama Light It Up
BY TAYLOR MARSH
–updated–
Bill Clinton has never been better.
The wattage on the stage tonight just about blew a fuse.
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McCain’s Snort Retort
BY TAYLOR MARSH
To answer… Would you get into a plane with someone who crashed so many times?
Put your financial future in the hands of a man who said economics wasn’t exactly his strong suit?
Whose first decision was to pick a vice presidential candidate who doesn’t even know what the vice president does?
McCain’s got nothing but blather.
Oh, and by the way, Carly Fiorina is back.
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Barack Obama Reaches Out
BY TAYLOR MARSH
–updated–
BARACK OBAMA TONIGHT
… though it’s much more than that.
We’re almost there.
UPDATE: McCain’s response. Not an ounce of grace.
“As anyone who has bought anything from an infomercial knows, the sales-job is always better
than the product. Buyer beware.” —Tucker Bounds, spokesman McCain-Palin
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