Israeli Election, ‘Believni’ and the Supermodel

First, dealing with Gaza amidst the elections, today Egypt’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said “The secretary will be coming to Cairo on the second of March. We expect lots of commitments from everybody, lots of commitments for reconstruction.” The statement from State today emphasized that “The needs of Gaza’s Palestinians remain acute.” Amidst this, Reuters is reporting that Sen. John Kerry will meet Syria’s Assad next week, having met with Clinton today.

Needless to say, Israel’s Gaza skirmish with Hamas is on everyone’s mind as Livni and Netanyahu begin their very public campaign on what comes next. Aside this, there’s a lot of talk right now about Avigdor Lieberman being the “kingmaker,” though he’s not yet decided which way to weigh in just yet. His statement is a classic: “I know exactly who I will recommend to the president, but I am not telling because it is too early.” Clearly, he’s relishing his role, whether it’s “kingmaker,” frankly, I think is up to question. But he sure stopped Bibi.

The only thing we know for certain is that Israeli politics will be directed inward to this mounting friction making any efforts by former Sen. George Mitchell to move a peace agreement out of Bush’s foreign policy storage even more difficult than they were at the beginning, which is a feat unto itself.

The election, remembering Lieberman’s part as well, has left nothing settled. Dueling statements from Kadima and Likud prove this point beyond question.

“Tonight the campaign led by Bibi (nickname of Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu) and the wheeler-dealers of the Likud aimed at stealing power and the will of the voter in Israel must come to an end,” read a statement released by Kadima minutes after the official results were announced.

Kadima repeated its call for Netanyahu to join a national unity government with Tzipi Livni serving as prime minister. “With the completion of the vote count Kadima won and it is the largest party,” the party statement read. “Netanyahu must accede to Tzipi Livni’s call and join a centrist national unity government headed by her.”

Likud officials responded to Kadima’s statement with scorn. “Kadima’s statement is pathetic and shows that it continues to spin some imagined reality instead of recognizing a political reality in accordance with the voter’s verdict,” a Likud communiqué read. “An absolute majority of Israelis wants Netanyahu as prime minister and clearly rejected Kadima’s way which has failed.”

What also matters in all this is how the election was seen through the eyes of the world, including Arab eyes. You know, like the message electing President Obama sent to the world after the horrific foreign policy mismanagement by Bush-Cheney. Marc Lynch:

The skepticism bridges today’s great divide in Arab politics. There’s little difference between the coverage in al-Quds al-Arabi (the most populist / “rejection camp” of the major Arab papers) and al-Sharq al-Awsat (the most conservative / “moderate camp” Saudi paper). The Saudi station Al-Arabiya leads with the rise of Israeli extremists (mutatarufin, the same word used to described al-Qaeda extremists). Al-Sharq al-Awsat describes the election as the choice between “the right and the extreme right.” Neither Barak nor Livni is seen as offering a particularly better choice after Gaza. The veteran journalist Abd al-Wahhab Badrakhan is “waiting for Lieberman,” marveling that Netanyahu finally succeeded in finding someone worse than himself — and arguing, as many do, that Lieberman would be the best winner since he would show Israel’s “true face.”

For Palestinians, especially Hamas, the Israeli elections did nothing to engender hope. However, President Abbas feels that international pressure will make whoever is in charge deal with the pressing reality. From US News & World Report:

President Mahmoud Abbas said whatever the next Israeli cabinet is, it would be obliged to continue peace talks and meet international obligations. “The ascent of the Israeli right does not worry us,” he told Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper.His Prime Minister Salam Fayyad told reporters Israel must meet international obligations. “We imagine that the expectations of the international community (toward Israel) will be the same as ours,” he said.

Al Arabiya called the elections “indecisive.”

No one is sure what will happen next, but I doubt Mr. Netanyahu is taking Livni’s prowess lightly. It’s not what he expected. Using “Believni” and channeling some of the Obama magic, Netanyahu was left to ignore debates as Livni surged at the end.

But who knew it was a supermodel that made the difference?

From Sports Illustrated:

You’re Israeli. Are you voting in the elections?
I am in New York, so I can’t.

How do you think they’re going to go?
I actually don’t know who I would vote for. If I knew I was going to, I’d probably research more. I think I’d probably go for [Foreign Minister Tzipi] Livni, but I don’t know.

If nothing else, the swirling mess gives us all another way to look at Israeli politics. As for peace, at present, stopping settlements seems a long way down the to do list.