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On Middle East ‘Equilibrium’

–updated–

The timing of yesterday’s event moderated by Steve Clemons was perfect, coinciding with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s first visit to the Middle East as Secretary of State. The topic: What’s next for peace in the Middle East? Guests included Farah Stockman of The Boston Globe, Amjad Atallah of the New America Foundation, M.J. Rosenberg of the Israel Policy Forum, and Abderrahim Foukara of Al-Jazeera. It was held at the City Club of Washington.

First, some quick hits on Clinton’s trip, as she begins the work President Obama hopes will step away from the failed non-engagement of the Bush-Cheney years.

Clinton speaking after Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt conference, where almost $1 billion in U.S. aid for Gaza was announced. As an aside, Martin Peretz strikes again, saying no aid should get through, exhibit A why a little tough love to Israel is required regarding Gaza.

Coverage via the Guardian:

“We have worked with the Palestinian Authority to install safeguards that will ensure our funding is only used where and for whom it is intended and does not end up in the wrong hands,” she said. “It is time to break the cycle of rejection and resistance, to cut the strings pulled by those who exploit the suffering of innocent people.”

Clinton made no reference to the closure of the Gaza crossings, or to Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are a prime concern for the Palestinians.

There’s also much being made about Clinton’s comments regarding Iran and their nuclear ambitions, as she downplays Iranian reaction to serious diplomacy, undoubtedly meant to lower expectations, while putting pressure on Iran. From Egypt:

“We’re under no illusions,” the official quoted Clinton as telling al Nahyan. “Our eyes are wide open on Iran.”

To add, Clemons has a piece up on Israel, Iran and the U.S. that is a must read. It also proves my point about Netanyahu.

Honest broker moments were revealed though they fell short of dealing with anything controversial such as the choke points and settlements.

Clinton having a moment with Syria’s foreign minister:

It was a brief but significant gesture: in the hubbub of the Gaza donor’s conference in Egypt, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, shook hands and exchanged a few words yesterday with Walid Mouallem, her Syrian counterpart. …

As for what’s next on Middle East peace as the Obama administration begins the tough slog post Bush, several things stood out from the forum. First was Steve Clemons use of the word “equilibrium” over trying to achieve peace. I’ve been wondering how we take advantage of the shift and get to peace under President Obama, especially since I don’t believe peace is a real option. Lurching cease-fires interrupted by violence will never bring peace.

Secondly, the consensus of the panelists was that Iran is a bigger issue for Israelis than the Palestinians. I’ve heard it before, but it still sounds like an excuse, something that is sure to roil politics here in the U.S. and maybe that’s the point?

Much talk was about the question of whether a two state solution is possible anymore, even as some imagine one state is what may manifest. That Palestinians actually want that; juxtaposed against it would really be better for Israelis. I don’t see how anything works in the long term without two states, no matter how much I study and read on the subject. The U.S. and leaders in the region must put pressure on the parties to move forward with some plan for a sustained equilibrium. That can only happen if our gov. puts a value on U.S. interests first, beyond what will only benefit Israel, but cause us problems in the region with Arab nations. Nations with which Obama must make inroads on new engagement.

Optimism seemed to be the prevailing sentiment of the panelists.

Listening to experts you can never discount what is said, but I’m not feeling the same. M.J. Rosenberg’s optimism is in part due to President Obama himself. Israel’s current state of politics in that country are not encouraging, especially with Netanyahu up front, someone who has never appreciated the horrific cost of settlements, which was a constant theme from Al Jazeera’s Abderrahim Foukara. Then again, maybe only Bibi can do it. Doubts remain.

I also keep wondering how we get from political philosophy and intent to manifesting something concrete. Seriously, how long can we continue to talk about “peace,” without drawing up a plan that provides “equilibrium” to a region that never seems to want to step forward. We need to, as Clemons says, change the game.

Below are notes I took during the forum. Any misunderstanding of what’s written is on me, not the person to which the idea or quote is attributed. You can only take notes so fast. Any comments I have appear in italics after quote or basic idea of what was said by the panelist or the moderator.

Clemons on Clinton: “Impressive realist stripes” in Asia. (That’s what has enraged the Jewish community recently. They never saw Clinton’s internationalist tendencies, which are realist and pragmatic to their core.)

“I don’t believe in peace. I believe in equilibrium, equilibria.” – Clemons

“Iran was not the elephant in the room that it is now.” – Farah Stockman

“More and more Jewish voices” speaking out for something beyond the status qou. – Abderrahim Foukara. Also says it’s the Iran issue that’s paramount. “The whole thing harkens back to the issue of democracy.” It’s about settlements. “I doubt if Barack Obama will be able to make them do that one thing.” The West talks about Israel being a great democracy, but in the shadow of what the Palestinians are enduring how great a democracy can it be? Not a popular sentiment in the U.S. to offer, a gamble to utter it. (Mr. Foukara’s point was a plea of sorts, made continually throughout the forum.)

MJ Rosenberg – “In general I’m optimistic.” Mitchell’s call last week that included Jewish peace groups is one reason, he said. “We weren’t even invited to a Chanukah celebration” in the Bush years. “The status quo lobby,” as he called it, meaning AIPAC. Some in town “are very worried about George Mitchell, very worried.” Chas freeman, referred by some as that “vile creature,” made it worse. (I linked to MJ’s article on the Chas Freeman battle recently. This appointment is heartening to many peace movement Jews, quite a few in attendance yesterday.)

Amjad Atallah – We either pursue Arab – Israeli peace because Israel wants it, so we adopted that position. Or we have a larger interest that is regional. Mentioned Ann Lewis saying we support whatever gov. the Israelis elect, which is where we are today.

Clemons – Saudi Arabia very uncomfortable with Hamas, “discomfort,” is the appropriate word. (Saudi Arabia helped sponsor this event.)

MJ re Hamas: “I don’t favor engagement with Hamas.” Deal with Hamas only to the extent that it stops the violence. “I don’t see anything wrong with Egypt’s position.” MJ said what Clinton said today was like the Bush admin.

As an aside, here’s what Fox News offered: Lawmakers Worry Whether U.S. Can Keep Gaza Aid Away From Hamas.

Clemons – “The too much, too late strategy” re Clinton.

Farah Stockman – Re Clinton, “wishful thinking”. Even if you don’t say Hamas in your speech they’re still in control of Gaza. (Now you see why I offered a few quick hit links on Clinton’s trip so far. Diplomacy isn’t journalism.)

Is the Hamas issue going to be a civil war inside the Obama admin?, asked Clemons. Yes, said Farah Stockman. “I happened to know that Hamas members have met with Sein Fein” – Farah Stockman. You have to get your armed guys to sign on. (The reality of having George Mitchell in the mix is not a coincidence.)

Abderrahim Foukara – Egypt thinks Hamas is an extension of the Muslim brotherhood. But who would have thought Egypt would be a partner of any sort with Israel. (Acknowledging reality doesn’t mean no progress exists.)

Farah Stockman – “The populations are not the same as their governments.”

Was the election in Palestine a mistake? – Clemons

Abderrahim Foukara – Yes, because Bush put it in terms that democracy was all that was at stake. If we’re not careful parties will “subcontract” their battles to the U.S. “Like Ahmed Chalabi did with us on Iraq.” (American interests must be our prime focus.)

Clemons – “Silo” state issues away from the larger regional issues. (Another way to say it is that people conveniently compartmentalize issues so you don’t have to think of the whole.)

Iran is “paranoid” about their security for many reasons – Clemons

Farah Stockman – Bush made a two-state solution popular. (This infuriated me, because it didn’t matter considering Bush-Cheney had no policy except to aid the Israelis. See Lebanon, which didn’t do the Israelis or the U.S. any good in the region.)

Clemons – Road blocks (brought to Israel by Ehud Barak) are a huge issue. Choke points and aid into Gaza. (I’ve never understood why this isn’t a huge issue with progressives, especially. The choke points and road blocks are a despicable tactic by the Israelis.)

MJ: “Colossaly stupid” to keep food away. “The Israelis are doing everything they can to make these people hate them.”

Abderrahim Foukara – Settlements continued, regardless of Bush’s two state solution rhetoric. (A comment to Ms. Stockman’s point about Bush and two state solution.)

Amjad Atallah – “Punitive” in the hopes that it will make “the Arabs” change. The Israelis seem to believe they can brutalize Arabs into changing. (Again, who can argue that the Israel’s actions are often not only punitive but counterproductive? All that’s happening is radicalization.)

Taking risks in first term will keep Obama from having a second term; so can Obama actually have a dialogue with Hamas? (How can we ignore Hamas’ stature? They run Gaza, whether it’s viable or not seems beside the point.)

Clemons: Give us Netanyahu, please; “What makes sense is game changing moves.” (We cannot afford anything less.)

About Taylor Marsh

Veteran political analyst and author of "The Hillary Effect - Politics, Sexism and the Destiny of Loss," now available in print at Amazon.com, and 1 of 4 books chosen by Barnes and Noble to launch their "NOOK First" Featured Authors Selection program. Former Miss Missouri, Broadway dancer, & relationship consultant at LA Weekly, produced & wrote one woman show "Weeping for JFK."

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23 Responses to On Middle East ‘Equilibrium’

  1. Jane Austen 03 March 2009 at 11:53 am #

    Taylor – what a great piece you have written. It reflects much of what I heard from former colleagues in Cairo. I haven’t had a chance to really comment since I came back from my trip last Monday but basically this is what I was told – Egyptians do not want to see the Middle East up in flames. They do see Iran for what it is just as they saw what Iraq and Saddam were. By and large most Egyptians are moderates but they have their breaking points – one of which is the treatment of the Palestinians, especially the women and children. My friends told me that “we” meaning Americans have dehumanized the Palestinians and see them all as terrorists which is far from the truth. I met two Palestinian women who were at the conference I attended and what they relayed to me was a story of a people, especially women and children, who are suffering from a misguided and misunderstood policy. For this they blame America for our unswerving commitment to Israeli policies, right or wrong. Somewhere one woman told me we “must begin to see the humanity that is suffering.” And both of these Palestinian women do not view Hamas as the rightful advocates of the Palestinian people but as thugs, especially the military arm. From talking to them I assumed that they support the Palestinian Authority. These are not violent, hot-headed women given to radical inflamed passions but educated and knowlegeable women who have a good grasp of the issues and who only want peace for their people. Their belief is that it is America and the rest of the world, meaning Europe, who must force the Israelis to come to terms with the the Palestinians as part of humanity. If you had listened to them and seen the pictures they brought with them you would have been brought to tears as I was. One thing is for sure – we need to change our policies in the Middle East if we want even a semblance of progress towards a peaceful solution. I have a lot of faith in Hillary Clinton and our President in taking us down a different path, as difficult as it may be.

    On a side note – My husband had to give a paper at the British chemical society so we decided to combine our trips. We first went to London for two days and did the site-seeing thing (Westminster, Buckingham Palace, etc.). Hubby had never been to London so he was very impressed with the history. Then we went to Egypt where we were invited to stay with a former colleague and his wife who live in Nasser City, suburb of Cairo. The only problem with Nasser City is dealing with the sand. Fatima never puts her vaccuum cleaner away and I swear vaccuums every 15 minutes just trying to keep ahead of the sand build up (we had to shake out our bedding before going to bed). We were at the pyramids the day that the explosion rocked the Khan al-Khalili Bazaar. We had visited the bazaar the day before because my husband wanted to see the Al-Husseini and Al-Azhar mosques. I wanted to buy jewelry and our driver’s son owns a jewelry store so I did a little shopping, mostly for the granddaughters. Strangely enough I never felt afraid. Maybe I’m at that point in my life where I just don’t care to be afraid. Our final stop was Rome where we spent 15 hours – I had to re-visit the Sistin Chapel and see the restored ceiling (absolutely beautiful!) and the Pieta, just once more in my life.

  2. Betsy 03 March 2009 at 1:19 pm #

    Can’t stay but I thought your post was very interesting Jane. I’d love to go back to Rome one more time.

    Be back late afternoon. Have to go to pick up meds and go to commissary.

  3. icemama 03 March 2009 at 1:34 pm #

    I avoid these subjects because I know nothing of them. However, thanks Ms. M. I will try to become more informed.

    Enjoyed your story Jane.

  4. djjl 03 March 2009 at 1:43 pm #

    Taylor thank you for the wonderful piece. And Jane thank you for your story and comments. As you may know my daughter and son in law have lived in Kuwait for four years and have taken the opportunity to travel in the area. They spent two weeks in Egypt Christmas of 2007. They report similar comments. They said that the people in general consider the American people as friends they welcome and the American Government as an entity to often fear.

    They were treated warmly (except for some men who behaved as we often hear that Italian men do). My son in law, Patrick, left his $1,000 plus camera on a train. The man working the train knew the taxi driver that picked them up. Long story short, three different Egyptian workers got that camera back to their hotel. It was there when they got back . Amazing.

  5. Jane Austen 03 March 2009 at 2:11 pm #

    djjl says:
    03 March 2009 at 1:43 pm

    ___________

    djjl – I love Egypt and have made about 19 trips since the mid ’80s. The Egyptians are a wonderful warm hearted people and will give you the shirts off their backs. I had a similar experience some years ago when I lost my passport and it was returned to me intact and when I offered to give the gentleman a reward he declined saying he would hope that the same would be done in America if he lost his passport. Amazing since many of the tour guides and “businessmen” live on the concept of “baksheesh.” Egypt lives off of tourism and this latest incident in the Bazaar has them quite concerned that tourism will drop even further since they have seen a drop in tourism with the economic crisis.

  6. lynnette 03 March 2009 at 3:04 pm #

    Wonderful post, Taylor. Jane and djjl, I learned a lot from you today. Thank you for your stories. I believe most people throughout the world are decent and have more in common than not. They just want to have a decent life for themselves and their families. We are one planet – hopefully we won’t manage to destroy ourselves.

  7. Taylor Marsh 03 March 2009 at 3:23 pm #

    Jane Austin, thanks so much for taking to time to post so everyone (including the many lurkers) can read about your experiences and learn. I imagine you know Egypt very well. It’s a place I long to travel, but there are so many in the Arab world. (I’ve been to Rome several times, never missing the Sistine Chapel, though I have many favorite places, including piazzas; and London is such a marvel) Thank you too, djjl, appreciate your story as well. I’ve heard many wonderful things about the Egyptians.

    Hey Lynnette, thanks.

    Credit to you, icemama, for chiming in and participating! It all begins by reading about these issues and being willing to engage. You scored on both today.

  8. Lake Lady 03 March 2009 at 3:33 pm #

    Great posts by everyone! Jane yoour knowledge of Egypt is so interesting. We need more opportunities for people to people contact. The people of any country are usually very different than their government.

    Tina Brown was on Morning Joe this morning commenting on the brillance of Hillary and the wide ambitions of President Obama.She said tht it appears that Hillary has no ego in her decisions(envoys etc.) just smart pragmatic decisions.

  9. Jane Austen 03 March 2009 at 3:35 pm #

    Taylor Marsh says:
    03 March 2009 at 3:23 pm

    _________

    Taylor – thanks for all the posts you’ve put up. You are truly “fair and balanced” in your writing. And for all you posters, thanks for allowing me to wax philosophical every once in a while. I have a lot of thoughts running around in my head and I don’t know if I’ll ever have an opportunity to take the hundreds of notebooks in my basement and condense them into coherent writing. They are a hodgepodge of thoughts of almost 30 years.

    I hope you get to Egypt Taylor, though I would suggest that if you go into the desert to see the pyramids that you go on horseback and not on camelback. I go on the horse; my husband chose the camel against my better judgement (it must be a man-thing) and he was a site to behold. I laughed so hard I almost split my sides and came damn near to falling off the horse. I don’t know how he did it without getting sick to his stomach but he was a real trooper though I don’t think he’ll ever do it again.

    lynnette – I always love when you post. You have such wonderful warm thinking. I’ve met thousands of people over the past 30 years, primarily women. The one thing that has always struck me in talking to these women is that they want the same things that all women want for their children no matter where we live – food, homes, education,jobs, a future with peace. They don’t want our way of life just the dignity and rights of any human being. Why can’t we give it to them?

  10. Taylor Marsh 03 March 2009 at 4:17 pm #

    Wax philosophical any time, JA. If you ever get inspired to write something on the region, send it my way. I’d love to have it as a guest post any time. No pressure. Open ended invite, that’s all.

    …and don’t worry. I used to ride horses with a passion. I’ve also heard horror stories about camels. Horse it will be.

    I second that on Lynnette. I’m thrilled she started commenting.

  11. lynnette 03 March 2009 at 4:18 pm #

    Lake Lady says:
    03 March 2009 at 3:33 pm
    We need more opportunities for people to people contact. The people of any country are usually very different than their government.
    Jane Austen says:
    03 March 2009 at 3:35 pm
    The one thing that has always struck me in talking to these women is that they want the same things that all women want for their children no matter where we live – food, homes, education,jobs, a future with peace.

    Maybe the people are going to have to lead their governments instead of vice versa to get any lasting results. I think women should take leading roles in the Middle East peace process or anywhere for that matter, in breaking down the barriers and fostering the people to people contact. This could be done through informal means: university forums, etc. – outside of the traditional government pathway. It’s like Hillary said a day or two ago – she wants the Israelis and Palestinians to focus on the future through the eyes of the children.

  12. AnninCA 03 March 2009 at 4:24 pm #

    Perhaps, the timing is right. Israel, although I agree with them, took a public beating over retaliation this time.

    That spells change.

  13. Jane Austen 03 March 2009 at 4:54 pm #

    lynnette and Lake Lady – it is my belief that women around the world should literally band together and force the peace process to take place in all countries. I have seen enough pictures of mangled bodies of children, women and men to last more than a lifetime. I have all these crazy ideas on how we can do this. But to do so would require discipline and total commitment and dedication to the peace process. Our children’s, grandchildren’s and in my case my great grandchildren’s futures depend on us doing this. Otherwise, the world is doomed to becoming an inferno. I really and truly believe that we have the tools to bring peace; we just need the will.

  14. lynnette 03 March 2009 at 8:01 pm #

    Jane Austen says:
    03 March 2009 at 4:54 pm
    I have all these crazy ideas on how we can do this.

    I would like to know some of your thoughts on how to do this. And I agree we have the tools and just need the will. The emphasis should be on what is possible rather than what is impossible.

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