“I am certain it is possible and certainly necessary to act with all our might to achieve peace even before I turn 70, which will be in three years,” said Defense Minister Ehud Barak in his first extensive interview since joining the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – Via Haaretz
We simply cannot fall into the trap that in order to move the Middle East “peace” process along we have to include Iran in the mix. Defense Minister Ehud Barack seems to get it. Iran is a separate issue and the Obama administration must not fall for this framework. Because so much of this is up to us.
If I’ve learned anything over the many months of listening to Middle East experts, especially the last weeks since I’ve moved to D.C., it’s that nobody is going to manifest equilibrium in the region unless the U.S. provides the push and the umbrella. That was made clear at the New America Foundation conference yesterday, which was also sponsored by the Committee for International Trade (Council of Saudi Chambers of Commerce & Industry). We also can’t expect Israelis and Palestinians to do this on their own because they won’t or can’t. But no talks should include any “deal” on Iran.
However, one thing is clear and that’s the Obama administration’s refusal to stand down, but instead continue to push Netanyahu on Israel’s responsibilities on their end regarding Palestinians, is not exactly sticking. Via Haaretz:
“We are not talking about a military attack. Israel cannot resolve militarily the entire world’s problem. I propose that the United States, as the largest power in the world, take responsibility for resolving the Iranian question,” Lieberman told the paper.
“The best way to stop Iran’s nuclear program is through severe sanctions, very severe sanctions,” he said. “The resolutions of the UN Security Council are insufficient. Iran must be presented with harsher and more effective sanctions. It worked against Libya. We must isolate Iran; only this way will results be possible.”
Mr. Lieberman easily shoves Israel’s responsibility in our direction, putting the entire Iran issue in our lap, which is nothing less than a a rhetorical policy that will lead us all nowhere. Maybe that’s the point.
I’ve never believed Israel will bomb Iran, though nothing would surprise me, for obvious reasons. But it just doesn’t make sense considering the stakes and the climate in the region, which is running short of patience.
That was the theme again yesterday, coming after King Abdullah of Jordan saying the same thing on “Meet the Press.”
Our Arab friends have a lot of leverage they can exert across the region, including the Saudis, who can make a huge difference in Pakistan. We need them as much as they need us, but right now they are all calling for U.S. leadership on the Israeli – Palestinian issue. They’re looking for concrete words from Obama and his administration on the Israeli-Palestinian logjam. Obama meets with Netanyahu in mid-May. The message he needs to send to Lieberman is clear to me: We’re not talking about Iran, this is about Israel’s responsibility, as well as the Palestinians, but it begins with you, sir. I know, fat chance.
But it’s clear to me that the Saudis are more than willing to take the lead here on the Arab side, as long as they’ve got a U.S. partner leading the way to nudge Israel where they simply must go. And make no mistake about it, Hamas is in this deal, folks, which most of us realize, though the bottom line is figuring out how to sell it. How Obama will deal with Congress on that issue remains unknown and troubling, let alone the right-wing backlash that will hit like a rogue wave on a crowded beach.
As for the experts on all of this, Ms. Hauser of the New America Foundation is very skeptical of whether Netanyahu is serious at all about establishing equilibrium, as she stated emphatically yesterday. She also says even as “totally dysfunctional” as the Palestinians are the demographics favor them. Surely Netanyahu knows this, as well as the price for not doing something. She also believes that the EU and the Arabs play as big a role as the U.S. in all this. She’s the expert, no doubt, but that’s not what the Arabs are saying, though it’s clear from Abdullah’s API that they’re willing to do their part. Hauser also wants Obama to lay down the bottom line to Netanyahu when they meet, no equivocation, but stating plainly what’s expected, which is a two-state solution, period.
Sen. Chuck Hagel, who was also at the Saudi conference yesterday, thinks Obama should start out by listening to Netanyahu, though he realizes it’s more complex, yet his deference to the Israeli leader reveals an opening for Obama that I believe will eventually lead into a wall we’ve seen before.
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, who I met very briefly yesterday, is as smart as anyone we’ve got on these issues, in my opinion. He begins with the imperative that the Saudis are critically important here, with a new and stronger partnership with them an imperative. This line got the only interrupted applause from the gathering, which was large and passionate on the issue. He’s with Hauser on what Obama needs to say to Netanyahu.
No one is clear what Pres. Obama will say or do, or if he’ll choose simply to listen instead of lead. He’s got until June to figure out which it will be. There’s an opening he likely won’t get again, to take an unambiguous stand on this issue that puts the U.S. not on the side of only the Israelis, or the Palestinians, but representing America’s interests as a leader in moving everyone in the region on to more level ground. If he doesn’t take this chance Obama will likely find himself in the middle of another round of Middle East violence before his first term is out.
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