Once again Richard Cohen provides foundational reality:
I think it’s almost certainly too late to stop Iran achieving virtual nuclear power status — something like Brazil’s or Japan’s mastery of the know-how without a weapon. Iran’s advances of the past eight years cannot be undone. What can be transformed is the context Iran operates in; that in turn will determine how “virtual” Iran remains.
Cohen also points to the inheritance Obama was left, with the additional reality of the possibility of utilizing Iran as a partner in Afghanistan yet again, as we did before they were slapped by Bush’s “axis of evil” line.
Imagine if Roosevelt in 1942 had said to Stalin, sorry, Joe, we don’t like your Communist ideology so we’re not going to accept your help in crushing the Nazis. I know you’re powerful, but we don’t deal with evil.
That’s a rough equivalent on the stupidity scale of what Bush achieved by consigning Iran’s theocracy to the axis of evil and failing to probe how the country might have helped in two wars and the wider Middle East when the conciliatory Mohammad Khatami was president.
Seldom in the annals of American diplomacy has moral absolutism trumped realism to such devastating effect.
As an aside, speaking of Afghanistan again, our friend Scott Kesterson is back in country. I received an email from him yesterday, with both of us planning on doing another interview, which I’ll offer via podcast, taking up where we left off the last time we spoke and he was there. At that time Scott was the only photojournalist inside Afghanistan. He talked then about Iran’s role in helping out when the slide began.
But when all is said and done, Iran policy gets down to Obama’s ability to take on Israel’s hard line against what they see as a mortal enemy in Iran. Once again, the upcoming Iranian elections in June being critical, which coincides with Israel’s rhetoric getting more agitated as seen through Netanyahu’s recent interview with Jeffrey Goldberg.
It will all come down to Mr. Obama. Go back to his AIPAC speech in 2008:
Our alliance is based on shared interests and shared values. Those who threaten Israel threaten us. Israel has always faced these threats on the front lines. And I will bring to the White House an unshakable commitment to Israel’s security.
That starts with ensuring Israel’s qualitative military advantage. I will ensure that Israel can defend itself from any threat — from Gaza to Tehran. Defense cooperation between the United States and Israel is a model of success, and must be deepened. As president, I will implement a Memorandum of Understanding that provides $30 billion in assistance to Israel over the next decade — investments to Israel’s security that will not be tied to any other nation. First, we must approve the foreign aid request for 2009. Going forward, we can enhance our cooperation on missile defense. We should export military equipment to our ally Israel under the same guidelines as NATO. And I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself in the United Nations and around the world.
Across the political spectrum, Israelis understand that real security can only come through lasting peace. And that is why we — as friends of Israel — must resolve to do all we can to help Israel and its neighbors to achieve it. Because a secure, lasting peace is in Israel’s national interest. It is in America’s national interest. And it is in the interest of the Palestinian people and the Arab world. As president, I will work to help Israel achieve the goal of two states, a Jewish state of Israel and a Palestinian state, living side by side in peace and security. And I won’t wait until the waning days of my presidency. I will take an active role, and make a personal commitment to do all I can to advance the cause of peace from the start of my administration.
The question remains, given the realities of Iran’s nuclear ambitions that many feel cannot be stopped, does Obama have a “partner for peace” in Netanyahu-Lieberman? Or did we see the passing of Arafat, with Sharon now gone from the scene, just to get an equally militant and virulently anti Iranian Israeli government to take their place who also believes that the Palestinians deserve no home?
How far will Obama push for peace equilibrium and a two-state solution? We just don’t know, but everything is riding on it.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s special envoy, George Mitchell, will travel to the Middle East this week to hold his first meetings with senior officials on both sides of the conflict since a new hard-line Israeli government took power.
State Department spokesman Robert Wood said the purpose of Mr. Mitchell’s trip is “to advance the goal of the two-state solution and comprehensive peace in the region,” and that he would be discussing “next steps” toward that end.
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