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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Archive | April, 2009

When Iran Thinks of Afghanistan, Think U.S. Battles with Mexico over Drugs

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John Bolton, fresh from suggesting military action in Somalia, said today (on Fox) that not only would Israel likely act on Iran before the end of the year, but it’s the best option since diplomacy hasn’t worked. No wonder Republicans find themselves in the wilderness. As to Mr. Bolton’s reaction to Iran’s offer on nuclear talks, he simply shrugged it off as it would likely spoil his “regime change” fun.

John Tirman, Executive Director, MIT Center for International Studies held a conference call on the findings of a new report on Iran (pdf) that’s just now being released.

Tirman said the purpose of the report is to think deeper about how to improve diplomatic relations with Iran, and move policy away from a place of hostility that has been in place for decades. The “policy of coercion,” specifically sanctions, have not worked and have not produced “much economic pain,” Tirman said on the call. “Leverage” through sanctions just doesn’t work.

Unfreezing assets and engaging is not a threat to U.S. national security. Disavowing regime change is also a primary point as well, as is lifting sanctions.

On the nuclear question, a better relationship with Iran could likely inspire Iran to live up to their obligations on NPT.

“Israeli security can be enhanced” by the U.S. having a better relationship with Iran, though Tirman acknowledged that Israelis likely won’t see it this way.

“President Obama must be deeply involved. … The gestures he’s made so far have been positive, but he needs to do more. … Iranians appreciate his change in tone. … Now they want to see something concrete.” – John Tirman

Questions from media on the call were few (I’ve yet to have a chance to read the report), first Bloomberg: Comparing N. Korea with Iran, Tirman rejected the notion, saying N.K. is not exactly run by the sane (not his words, my paraphrase, because connection horrible on their end, with Tirman being cut off), but that there is plenty of time re: Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Once back on the line, Tirman said: A better U.S. – Iran relationship will help us deal with nuclear issue.

Question re: What about Afghanistan, especially the opium problem, since its trafficked through Iran, with their being a “huge addiction problem” in Iran? Tirman: Didn’t deal with drug trafficking issue, but Ahmadinejad recently mentioned it, because it’s “clearly a high priority” with Iran, and will push them to cooperate on Afghanistan.

“When you look at the whole region… unstable, threatening and important (because of oil), there aren’t many nations we can rely on as allies… (but) Iran is one of them… if we can improve the relationship.” Tirman then mentions Hillary Mann Leverett (whom I’ve interviewed) and Flynt Leverett’s work on the subject of Iran engagement.

One observation: When was the last time you heard a politician raising the drug issue as a reason Iran would be a good ally for us on Afghanistan? (Scott Kesterson, who is back in Afghanistan, talked about Iran’s positive involvement building up Afghanistan in the south when I interviewed him a couple of years ago. So I look forward to talking about some of these issues re: Afghanistan & Iran when we speak in the future.)

As an analogy, when Iranian officials are thinking Afghanistan, at least where lawlessness and drugs intersect, no small challenge given the scope of the problem, it’s not far off from the way we are battling Mexico. Segue to L.A. Times:

Two days later, police in eastern Iran, near Afghanistan, stopped a pickup packed with a quarter of a ton of opium in compartments under the floorboards, according to local news reports. And cops in the border town of Zabol recently seized another quarter-ton of Afghan opium.

Whatever Iranian officials might feel about U.S. troubles in Afghanistan and Pakistan, there is a rising alarm in Tehran over the torrent of drug dealing, human trafficking and violence connected to the mayhem in the region that is washing across Iran’s eastern border.

[...]There are practical matters as well. Iranian officials say the drug war has cost their nation more than $600 million in the last two years. About 3,700 Iranian security officials were killed and 11,000 maimed in more than 12,000 clashes between traffickers and police officers between 1989 and 2003, according to Iranian statistics cited in a United Nations report.

All indications are that the problem is worsening as Afghanistan descends further into lawlessness. From 2006 to ’07, drug seizures, as measured by weight, jumped 35% for heroin, 37% for opium and 52% for hashish, according to figures on the website of Iran’s Drug Control Headquarters.

Total drug seizures rose from 155 tons in 2001 to 618 tons in 2007, almost all of it opium, heroin and hashish from Afghanistan; addiction is rapidly becoming Iran’s top public health problem.

Tehran has been digging canals, raising earthen berms and laying out barbed wire. Still, the drugs flow in, sometimes strapped to camels crossing the desert, sometimes protected by well-armed gangsters equipped with satellite technology and automatic weapons. …

Self-interest is a powerful motivator.

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Afghan Women Confront Top Shiite Cleric

–updated–

This is as in your face as you can get in Afghanistan. Sometimes pictures say it all. Ayatollah Asif Mohsini didn’t know what him, because it’s never happened before.

Responding to the outcry, Mr. Karzai has begun looking for a way to remove the most controversial parts of the law. In an interview on Wednesday, his spokesman, Homayun Hamidzada, said that the legislation was not yet law because it had not been published in the government’s official register. That, Mr. Hamidzada said, meant that it could still be changed. Mr. Karzai has asked his justice minister to look it over.

… The women who protested Wednesday began their demonstration with what appeared to be a deliberately provocative act. They gathered in front of the School of the Last Prophet, a madrassa run by Ayatollah Asif Mohsini, the country’s most powerful Shiite cleric. He and the scholars around him played an important role in the drafting of the new law.

“We are here to campaign for our rights,” one woman said into a loudspeaker. Then the women held their banners aloft and began to chant. [...]

Their lives are at stake, so the bravery of the women of Afghanistan who protested Karzai’s rape law really is stunning. By confronting the most powerful Shiite cleric in their country, not only have they made sure their voices are heard, but they’ve moved Afghanistan another step away from the Dark Ages.

Only 10% of the population by most accounts, Shiite women in Afghanistan have a long way to go, with many of their sisters oblivious to women’s rights. As much as the Taliban hate the Shiites, you can only imagine the special intensity for Shiite women who act up, shall we say.

Time for Secretary Clinton to stand up and applaud these women. I’ve got a request in for a statement on this story. Given the risks to their life they need all the international support and light on them we can provide.

UPDATE II: Another statement specifically on Karzai’s rape law can be seen in this video, which is part of a larger interview given back in early April.

UPDATE: A response from Clinton’s office at State offered her statement back in March at The Hague.

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, there’s a continuing commitment to women and girls, to their well-being, to their education, their healthcare, to their full integration into society that I am very committed to, as is President Obama. So this is an area of absolute concern on the part of the United States. We’re looking for ways that can produce even more opportunities for women and girls in Afghanistan.

I’ve briefly met with some of the women parliamentarians who are here at the conference. And my message is very clear: Women’s rights are a central part of American foreign policy in the Obama Administration; they are not marginal; they are not an add-on or an afterthought.

I believe, as does President Obama, that the roles and rights of women in any society is a key indicator as to the stability and potential for peace, prosperity, and democracy of that society. So I would be committed to women’s roles and rights because of my lifelong concern about women. But as Secretary of State, I am equally committed because it’s absolutely the smart strategy for the United States and other nations to pursue.

You cannot expect a country to develop if half its population are underfed, undereducated, under cared for, oppressed, and left on the sidelines. And we believe strongly that that’s not in the interests of Afghanistan or any country, and it certainly is not part of our foreign policy or our strategic review. So we will continue to work very hard on behalf of women and girls in Afghanistan and around the world.

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Will Obama Buck his Own Justice Department?

To release interrogation memos that reveal the U.S. tortured under Bush-Cheney, or not, that is the question. Known as the “Bradbury memos,” it was a moment when heroes and villains stood out. One such hero who paid for his principals was Mr. Comey:

“We are likely to hear the words: ‘If we don’t do this, people will die,’” Mr. Comey said. But he argued that government lawyers must uphold the principles of their great institutions.

“It takes far more than a sharp legal mind to say ‘no’ when it matters most,” he said. “It takes moral character. It takes an understanding that in the long run, intelligence under law is the only sustainable intelligence in this country.”

President Obama is now faced with a decision deadline. But it looks like he’s caving to covering for the executive branch over the advice of smarter heads.

The highest law enforcement officer in America, as well as the White House counsel, have argued for releasing the memos. The Wall Street Journal has the story today.

Mr. Holder and Justice lawyers, along with Mr. Craig, have argued aggressively for releasing operational details.

Then there is Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, who continues to be my favorite Administration official, from standing up to the swiftboating bullies on Chas Freeman to reportedly being in favor of releasing the information.

Top CIA officials have spoken out strongly against a full release, saying it would undermine the agency’s credibility with foreign intelligence services and hurt the agency’s work force, people involved in the discussions said. However, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair favors releasing the information, current and former senior administration officials said.

Human-rights groups and many in the administration have called the techniques torture.

It won’t be long before the decision is made, tomorrow being the court deadline in the American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit that is seeking the release of information.

“We want to maximize the amount of information available to the American people,” said a senior administration official involved in the discussions, adding that such a policy has to be balanced so it “does not damage national security interests.”

Doing a tally of the voices in this one article? It’s Justice v. the Intel community, with Obama seemingly fearful of alienating a group where he is the outsider.

C.I.A. director Leon Panetta, a forceful voice against torture, evidently is seesawing back and forth on what to do.

Then there are the ridiculous arguments that releasing the information on interrogation techniques will be using as a –wait for it– “propaganda tool for Al Qaeda.” That if known and the intel community takes a hit, people whose job it is to do the dirty work will be less inclined to take “risks.”

The national security of the U.S. is not damaged by standing up for the Geneva Conventions, and against torture, quite the opposite.

President Obama is getting plenty of expert advice to release the information. It’s simply not enough to contend that “the administration will release a lot more than has ever been released before.” Not good enough. But that’s likely the standard by which President Obama will judge and act, believing that if he does an incremental step forward, after already saying the U.S. will not torture under his watch, that’s enough. “Better than the last guy” is hardly change. When torture and transparency are the issues, it’s moral cowardice.

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It’s ‘Tea Party’ Tax Day

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Compliments of Fox News channel, who’ll be covering it, as they have on the run up, all day today.

Glenn, Sean, Neil, Greta, oh, and don’t forget Geraldo (because you can’t have a ‘tea bagging’ party without him)… the list of Fox all stars who have come out for Fox’s full day of ‘tea bagging’ fun is endless. …and it’s all live, all day.

Compliments of Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey and all their corporate friends and lobbyists, because what’s a ‘tea bagging’ bonanza without sponsors?

Media Matters has Fox’s full campaign chronicled, so everyone is clear. No stinkin’ grass roots here. This is one colossal corporate creation, all compliments of your favorite Fox all stars.

Fair and balanced brought to you by the Fox ‘tea party’ team and their fans. Happy tax day.

And don’t forget that the U.S. Constitution isn’t a “suicide pact.” Glenn Beck says so.

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Clinton to Hold Digital Townhall of the Americas

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Summit of the Americas is coming up April 17-19. Secretary Clinton is holding a digital townhall on April 17th from the Dominican Republic. From DipNote:

Digital Town Hall of the Americas will be streamed live on the Department of State’s Social Media Hub for the Fifth Summit of Americas (http://townhall.howcast.com/), powered by Howcast. Content will also be featured on Ustream, Facebook, MySpace, YouTube, Twitter, Orkut, and Hi-5. Secretary Clinton will answer questions submitted through these sites prior to the event as well as from the local Dominican audience in attendance. Please refer to the above web site for further detail on the Digital Town Hall of the Americas as it becomes available, including confirmed time and venue.

You can submit your questions prior to the townhall right here.

Let’s hope she’s having the time of her life.

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Picture of the Day

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There’s really nothing to add on this one. Dolphins win. Thugs lose.

Out of China:

Thousands of dolphins blocked the suspected Somali pirate ships when they were trying to attack Chinese merchant ships passing the Gulf of Aden, the China Radio International reported on Monday.

The Chinese merchant ships escorted by a China’s fleet sailed on the Gulf of Aden when they met some suspected pirate ships. Thousands of dolphins suddenly leaped out of water between pirates and merchants when the pirate ships headed for the China’s.

The suspected pirates ships stopped and then turned away. The pirates could only lament their littleness befor the vast number of dolphins. [...]

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The Perfect Storm for Extremists

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It happens every time you get a dynamic Democratic president in office. It happened when William Jefferson Clinton hit Washington. The conservatives began hunting him in earnest and didn’t let up until they had him in their sights. Handing them the dagger didn’t help, but they would have found an opening regardless. Now they’re hunting again, but this time the perfect storm has settled in, with economics, alienation and anger all funneling into a fire that also has a racial component, with President Obama being the first African American ever elected to the presidency. So is it any wonder Homeland Security is on the alert?

When you add in the toxic gas of right-wing radio, which sells misinformation and fear by the commercial break, aided by other media (and political) enablers, the virulent hatred being spread across our airwaves is nothing to take lightly. Not that it hasn’t been there for over 15 years. It’s just been turbo charged since Obama.

The Washington Times reports that Barack Obama is a “recruiting tool” for the hate groups, with reporting that reveals Homeland Security on the alert.

The Department of Homeland Security is warning law enforcement officials about a rise in “rightwing extremist activity,” saying the economic recession, the election of America’s first black president and the return of a few disgruntled war veterans could swell the ranks of white-power militias.

A footnote attached to the report by the Homeland Security Office of Intelligence and Analysis defines “rightwing extremism in the United States” as including not just racist or hate groups, but also groups that reject federal authority in favor of state or local authority.

“It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single-issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration,” the warning says. [...]

Below is one part of the document, Rightwing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment, currently circulating on the web, bringing with it the upside of causing Michelle Malkin & Co. a great deal of indigestion.

(U//LES) The DHS/Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) has no specific information that domestic rightwing* terrorists are currently planning acts of violence, but rightwing extremists may be gaining new recruits by playing on their fears about several emergent issues. The economic downturn and the election of the first African American president present unique drivers for rightwing radicalization andrecruitment.

— (U//LES) Threats from white supremacist and violent antigovernment groups during 2009 have been largely rhetorical and have not indicated plans to carry out violent acts. Nevertheless, the consequences of a prolonged economic downturn—including real estate foreclosures, unemployment, and an inability
to obtain credit—could create a fertile recruiting environment for rightwing extremists and even result in confrontations between such groups and government authorities similar to those in the past.

— (U//LES) Rightwing extremists have capitalized on the election of the first African American president, and are focusing their efforts to recruit new members, mobilize existing supporters, and broaden their scope and appeal through propaganda, but they have not yet turned to attack planning. (U//FOUO) The current economic and political climate has some similarities to the 1990s when rightwing extremism experienced a resurgence fueled largely by an economic recession, criticism about the outsourcing of jobs, and the perceived threat to U.S. power and sovereignty by other foreign powers.

— (U//FOUO) During the 1990s, these issues contributed to the growth in the number of domestic rightwing terrorist and extremist groups and an increase in violent acts targeting government facilities, law enforcement officers, banks, and infrastructure sectors.

— (U//FOUO) Growth of these groups subsided in reaction to increased government scrutiny as a result of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and disrupted plots, improvements in the economy, and the continued U.S. standing as the preeminent world power.

(U//FOUO) The possible passage of new restrictions on firearms and the return of military veterans facing significant challenges reintegrating into their communities could lead to the potential emergence of terrorist groups or lone wolf extremists capable of carrying out violent attacks.

* (U) Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups), and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration. [...]

Note that “possible passage of new restrictions on firearms” nugget above. Oh, for want of a comma, but none was used, at least in this version. So forgive me if find exceptions to this passage, though I respect the seriousness of the message. (Update: As I said over “In the News,” I reject this entire paragraph in the DHS report.)

It’s not like this hasn’t been building since Obama surged last year.

Now that this document is circulating the web it’s only going to incite people more, with the aid of the wingnut radio hosts, of course, add in the now obligatory odd monologue sure to come from Glenn Beck, to put an exclamation on it all. It’s the nature of the wingnut beast.

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Twitter Liveblogging: Cuba

TM NOTE & UPDATE: The plugin that allows me to liveblog via Twitter is created and designed by Mash, via @thisismash. Great thanks to him, someone who has offered many foreign policy posts for me, focusing on Central Asia. Great plugin. Incredibly valuable to my continued foreign policy reporting.

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8:57:28 AM: New America Foundation forum (see previous post), Steve Clemons moderating, with vid avail @ TheWashingtonNote.

9:03:43 AM: Steve Coll: Obama’s exec order “important but incremental.” Subset aspect a first.

9:07:08 AM: Clemons: Every president but GWB, even Reagan, made “pivot” of some sort towards Cuba policy changes.

9:09:41 AM: Julia Sweig, “grand diva,” according to Clemons, on the region, with book coming out. Femme rep on panel.

9:12:57 AM: Wilkerson: consult the arts, calypso: “Barack the Magnificent.” Teddy last prez to be considered.

9:15:04 AM: Wilk: this relationship is “tortured.” The “infinitesimal movement” was made yesterday.

9:17:44 AM: Meacham: “This was a big change yesterday…very imp develpmnt.” “Op for dialogue”

9:20:52 AM: Sweig:”I guess I just wish that one didn’t require a hyphen” in order to enjoy. Only country w this restriction.

9:24:52 AM: Sweig: Cuba litmus test for BO “change” w rest of region/Latin Am. “Substnc of US policy offensive”

9:28:12 AM: Sweig: human rights, democracy engagement w Cuba already happening w EU, Latin Am.

9:29:37 AM: Reinsch: “The biggest benediciary of the embargo has been Castro.”

9:39:10 AM: Lind: “SA a dagger pointed at the heart of Antarctica,” said Kissinger.”New era? Keep working

9:42:51 AM: Omestead: Just back frm Cuba. “Mood on the uplift” re BO. “Great craving for normalcy.” Officials are jaded.

9:53:41 AM: Rothkopf: “It is a bit ridiculous..” With all that’s happening we’re discussing “a tint island.” Focs on “threats 2 WallSt, nt threats f(rom WallSt)”…

9:56:28 AM: Rothkopf: mentions war in Iraq, which is really about Pakistan; Afghan legal rape agnst women and we support them

9:59:32 AM: NOTE: Letter from esteemed military to Obama re: asking him to go further on travel.

10:07:36 AM: Meacham: re State “strategic review” of regional policy, as HRC indicated @ confirm, still waiting.

10:12:53 AM: Wilkerson: “Obama can only show ankle” in so many areas. Cuba no threat

10:18:03 AM: Rothkopf: BO “generally cautious” on all things; within the parameters of promise.

10:22:26 AM: Lind: “US is governed not by logic but by Congress.” O doing so much; right to attack. Domestic policy v foreign.

10:27:10 AM: Rothkopf: Likely have forum in the next few years about nuclear Venezuela.

10:29:39 AM: “Obama still on his first date with planet earth,” said Rothkopf. “Anticipation.”

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Obama Shifts U.S. Cuba Policy

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Well, Obama finally made the move, easing restrictions on Cuba, plus giving a little help to the telecoms dealing with Cuban telecoms. Humanitarian issues are also in the mix. Long overdue, but there’s a long way to go.

We’re already hearing voices stuck in the past that it’s a big mistake, aka some Republicans are squawking, and they won’t be the only ones.

Tomorrow morning I’ll be at a symposium focusing on Latin America, hosted by Steve Clemons. Guests include Carl Meacham, Senior Policy Advisor for Latin America to Senator Richard Lugar (Senate Foreign Relations Committee); Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (USA, Ret), Former Chief of Staff, Department of State Chairman; Pamela Harriman Visiting Professor, College of William & Mary; Michael Lind, Whitehead Senior Fellow, New America Foundation; Julia Sweig, Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies and Director of Latin Studies; David Rothkopf, President & CEO, Garten Rothkopf; Tom Omestad Senior Writer & Diplomatic Correspondent, US News & World Report; Former Associate Editor, Foreign Policy.

The white House sent out other info on the shift in U.S. policy, here are a few highlights, with the full “fact sheet” is now over at WH.gov:

Lift restrictions on travel-related transactions for visits to a person’s family member who is a national of Cuba by authorizing such transactions by a general license that shall:
•Define family members who may be visited to be persons within three degrees of family relationship (e.g., second cousins) and to allow individuals who share a common dwelling as a family with an authorized traveler to accompany them;
•Remove limitations on the frequency of visits;
•Remove limitations on the duration of a visit;
•Authorize expenditure amounts that are the same as non-family travel; and
•Remove the 44-pound limitation on accompanied baggage.
(b) Remove restrictions on remittances to a person’s family member in Cuba by:
more

•Authorizing remittances to individuals within three degrees of family relationship (e.g., second cousins) provided that no remittances shall be authorized to currently prohibited members of the Government of Cuba or currently prohibited members of the Cuban Communist Party;
•Removing limits on frequency of remittances;
•Removing limits on the amount of remittances;
•Authorizing travelers to carry up to $3,000 in remittances; and
•Establishing general license for banks and other depository institutions to forward remittances. [...]

Clemons isn’t enthralled about Obama’s move, but everyone can agree it’s a beginning.

Only problem with today’s announcement — beyond the very friendly nudge about Dan Restrepo’s impressive Castilian accent that may not play too well to many in the Cuban-American community — is that it is not “a lot of good news.”

I have always disliked over-tilting to any class of “other nationality-Americans” when it came to dealing with political and economic policies dealing with their home, or preceding, countries of origin. Ethnic politics are a reality in this country — but all people in this nation regardless of origin have as much right to argue about the terms of US foreign policy writ large. And I feel that no voices should be privileged over others.

Depending on what develops, I might Twitter some of the meeting tomorrow morning.

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Liveblogging Post: Nationals Opening Day!

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2:52:40 PM: Parking insane, but we got one. On to the ballpark!

3:03:52 PM: Sold out game. Standing room only.

3:13:50 PM: Phillies down easy. Nationals up. Some clouds, cool, but thrilled to be here w hub.

3:17:50 PM: We’re on; dying quail to first. We’ll take it.

3:21:54 PM: Two on…

3:22:55 PM: Double… One run scores! (Can I remember the number scoring?)

3:24:54 PM: Bases loaded, two out. (I won’t do this the whole game.)

3:26:39 PM: Side down. The last time I was @ opening day I was a kid watching my beloved Cards.

3:28:50 PM: @thisismash Thanks for this GREAT plugin!! Genius.

3:49:13 PM: Great beer. Hey, it’s the ballpark. Tied up!

4:06:58 PM: 3-2 Phils. Nats just doubled. Gal next to us, first baseball game.

4:32:00 PM: 4-3. Nats looked like a team on that one. Hello to Mash!

4:39:03 PM: Great catches this inning. Center fielder on fire. I LOVE this BALLPARK.

4:44:51 PM: Holy cow!! It might be. It could be…. A NATS HOME RUN!!!

5:13:29 PM: Phillies just cracked one over the centerfield wall against reliever: 7-4.

5:17:09 PM: …And they just tagged him again. Phillies fans around us are going nuts. Didn’t want to lose 2 Nats.

5:29:45 PM: Homerun for the Nats: 8-6. Temperature dropping; bottom of 7th.

5:52:14 PM: Tagged the Nats runner in the head on the way to first. 9-6, top 9th

6:03:55 PM: One on, homerun for Nats. No outs, one run down. 9-8

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Liveblogging Post This is a test.

12:27:50 PM: @thisismash About YOUR Twitter livebloging plugin, headline up. Really great job, my friend. So, well… this is a follow up test.

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Obama’s Nixon to China Moment on Iran

Once again Richard Cohen provides foundational reality:

I think it’s almost certainly too late to stop Iran achieving virtual nuclear power status — something like Brazil’s or Japan’s mastery of the know-how without a weapon. Iran’s advances of the past eight years cannot be undone. What can be transformed is the context Iran operates in; that in turn will determine how “virtual” Iran remains.

Cohen also points to the inheritance Obama was left, with the additional reality of the possibility of utilizing Iran as a partner in Afghanistan yet again, as we did before they were slapped by Bush’s “axis of evil” line.

Imagine if Roosevelt in 1942 had said to Stalin, sorry, Joe, we don’t like your Communist ideology so we’re not going to accept your help in crushing the Nazis. I know you’re powerful, but we don’t deal with evil.

That’s a rough equivalent on the stupidity scale of what Bush achieved by consigning Iran’s theocracy to the axis of evil and failing to probe how the country might have helped in two wars and the wider Middle East when the conciliatory Mohammad Khatami was president.

Seldom in the annals of American diplomacy has moral absolutism trumped realism to such devastating effect.

As an aside, speaking of Afghanistan again, our friend Scott Kesterson is back in country. I received an email from him yesterday, with both of us planning on doing another interview, which I’ll offer via podcast, taking up where we left off the last time we spoke and he was there. At that time Scott was the only photojournalist inside Afghanistan. He talked then about Iran’s role in helping out when the slide began.

But when all is said and done, Iran policy gets down to Obama’s ability to take on Israel’s hard line against what they see as a mortal enemy in Iran. Once again, the upcoming Iranian elections in June being critical, which coincides with Israel’s rhetoric getting more agitated as seen through Netanyahu’s recent interview with Jeffrey Goldberg.

It will all come down to Mr. Obama. Go back to his AIPAC speech in 2008:

Our alliance is based on shared interests and shared values. Those who threaten Israel threaten us. Israel has always faced these threats on the front lines. And I will bring to the White House an unshakable commitment to Israel’s security.

That starts with ensuring Israel’s qualitative military advantage. I will ensure that Israel can defend itself from any threat — from Gaza to Tehran. Defense cooperation between the United States and Israel is a model of success, and must be deepened. As president, I will implement a Memorandum of Understanding that provides $30 billion in assistance to Israel over the next decade — investments to Israel’s security that will not be tied to any other nation. First, we must approve the foreign aid request for 2009. Going forward, we can enhance our cooperation on missile defense. We should export military equipment to our ally Israel under the same guidelines as NATO. And I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself in the United Nations and around the world.

Across the political spectrum, Israelis understand that real security can only come through lasting peace. And that is why we — as friends of Israel — must resolve to do all we can to help Israel and its neighbors to achieve it. Because a secure, lasting peace is in Israel’s national interest. It is in America’s national interest. And it is in the interest of the Palestinian people and the Arab world. As president, I will work to help Israel achieve the goal of two states, a Jewish state of Israel and a Palestinian state, living side by side in peace and security. And I won’t wait until the waning days of my presidency. I will take an active role, and make a personal commitment to do all I can to advance the cause of peace from the start of my administration.

The question remains, given the realities of Iran’s nuclear ambitions that many feel cannot be stopped, does Obama have a “partner for peace” in Netanyahu-Lieberman? Or did we see the passing of Arafat, with Sharon now gone from the scene, just to get an equally militant and virulently anti Iranian Israeli government to take their place who also believes that the Palestinians deserve no home?

How far will Obama push for peace equilibrium and a two-state solution? We just don’t know, but everything is riding on it.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s special envoy, George Mitchell, will travel to the Middle East this week to hold his first meetings with senior officials on both sides of the conflict since a new hard-line Israeli government took power.

State Department spokesman Robert Wood said the purpose of Mr. Mitchell’s trip is “to advance the goal of the two-state solution and comprehensive peace in the region,” and that he would be discussing “next steps” toward that end.



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Special Forces Rock

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The rescue of Capt. Phillips is exhibit A for why Special Forces, Army Rangers, and Navy Seals are critically important to any national security strategy going forward. It became apparent after President Obama twice authorized the use of force against the Somali thugs so we could take them out and rescue the captain.

This opener from how they did it is a classic: The operation to rescue Capt. Richard Phillips involved dozens of Navy SEALs, parachuted from an aircraft into the scene near dark Saturday.

Now let’s go to an expert :

No, an average platoon of Marines or Army light infantry does not have the capabilities or the training to carry out the missions executed by Army Rangers, Navy SEALs, and other SOF (to include the SMUs). That’s okay. Because in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the so-called “general purpose” forces are the ones responsible for carrying out the main effort. But parachuting into the middle of the Indian Ocean, swimming to the USS Bainbridge and then shooting three pirates from a boat that is rocking up and down and side to side is pretty effing difficult. If this operation to rescue Richard Phillips isn’t the damn poster child for why we need special operations forces — and why it’s important that those forces are able to work in tandem with normal U.S. Navy and U.S. Army forces — I don’t know what is.

Agitated, with no promise of money or anything, one pirate gave himself up using a hand wound as poor cover. Then things moved a step further.

Soon afterward, two pirates moved to one of the hatches of the lifeboat and stuck their heads out. The third pirate advanced toward the captain and pointed his AK-47 straight at Phillips’s back, the rifle touching it or inches away, the official said.

U.S. military observers thought that Phillips was about to be shot. SEAL snipers, who were positioned on a deck at the stern of the Bainbridge, an area known as the fantail, had the three pirates in their sights. The on-scene commander gave the snipers authority to fire.

“As soon as the snipers had a clear shot at the guy who had the rifle, they shot him and the other two in the hatches,” the senior military official said.

Obama got his first military challenge on whether to authorize force that came with great risks. That’s why the Navy Seals were employed, with their snipers made ready. When you need a stealth mission you don’t send in a conventional forces to get the job done. However, you do need some conventional support to pull it off. Glory can be shared, but the elite fighting forces we have, especially in today’s asymmetrical threat world, deserve a lot more focus and financing than many want to give, with most of the criticism something I do not understand.

Hats off to the Navy Seals today. To the U.S. Navy. But also to our commander in chief Barack Obama who got the job done by authorizing the use of force and the right tactical team required for the job, which took our armed forces knowing what that was when the moment came.

The good guys won this one. …and in case you think this is easy, just read the story of the French mission that went terribly wrong this weekend, which had ransom paid is the plot.

Good win for the good guys.

Wingnut radio will be ablaze today, so pop your popcorn early.



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Easter in the Nation’s Capital

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Whether you believe in something greater than your physical self or not one thing is certain. To be part of the journey of It is to embrace doubt, because what is part of discovering is personal, private, and cannot be proven.

Be Infinitely Patient… Being infinitely patient means having an absolute knowing that you’re in vibrational harmony with the all-creating force that intended you here. You know that everything will happen at just the right time, at just the right place, with just the right people. – Dr. Wayne Dyer

Daily meditations have been a way of life for me for too many years to count.

Organized religious participation and I have an even longer history, though as a liberated, modern female it’s impossible to reconcile some of the tenets of The Church, except, that is, of those of the Episcopal faith. For instance, the Vatican weighing in on Mrs. Caroline Kennedy, or Notre Dame’s leaders trying to block Mr. Obama from giving a speech, all seem utterly ridiculous to me. As if the Catholic church has any moral authority on which to block these people. It’s like the Southern Baptist convention telling women to genuflect to their husbands. The Taliban yet another step beyond, many religions keeping women away from our rightful place, which is anywhere a man can be, including leading the church and its followers. We aren’t even represented on the Sunday shows when religion is the topic, men still being seen as having the magic key and wisdom, something that is wholly hypocritical considering what man has wrought.

For evangelicals, Christ is risen today, which is the only thing that matters.

For atheists, all of this is just silly.

For people who find solace in the traditions of church, but who adhere closer to the energy and purpose of what Dr. Wayne Dyer and others of his calling attest, well, it’s a day to hook into a powerful energy vibrating that is Easter to raise your own level of possibility. After all, moving matter isn’t just a myth. It’s a state of mind.

After many years, I will be attending service at the National Cathedral (Twittering perhaps, as I do on the weekends these days; who knows who will attend). Tickets purchased weeks ago, I can only imagine the masses, the traffic, the fashion. Yes, Easter brings its own trappings, of course. But as I endeavor to place my traditional religious upbringing amidst my modern meditative awakening about the power and energy of attracting, I only hope that everyone can take a moment to connect to whatever is beyond their own mortal being to something larger. Not some guy in the sky to whom you ask favors, but to something within you ignite that leads you to greater possibilities.

Blessings at Easter to you all.



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Burden of Proof is On Obama

–updated–

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Reagan-era legal eagle Bruce Fein is miffed. He was an Obama supporter on many things, and let’s just say on this one he’s got lots of company. Some of us, as I’ve said before, are less surprised than others at what’s now unfolded. But as supporters of President Obama, in the end it all ends up the same. It’s another person getting executive fever thinking that being president in a democratic republic is good, but playing king is better.

The “state secrets” privilege has been around since 1953 and how it came into being is nothing that makes us proud. Dan Froomkin laid it out yesterday. It seems at this point the Obama administration is headed into making the same mistakes through their overreach of claiming that national security could be endangered in several cases if they produce documents, the trouble being that they’ll never have to prove their point. Not even to judges. That’s a problem and always has been, especially for Barack Obama who is now seen as going back on his word regarding transparency.

Greg Sargent reveals another issue, and has the screen capture as well. On the White House web site, the Administration is still crowing about the Bush administration even as they mimic what Bush did on “state secrets.

The only possible good news came in Attorney General Holder’s interview with Katie Couric, though he only went as far as to say a review was being done, also not guaranteeing we’d see the review, then citing one instance where the Obama administration could change its mind. Not exactly impressive.

Holder: … I have ordered a review of the state secrets doctrine. All the cases in which – we have invoked that doctrine. I think there are a total of maybe 20 or so, just to make sure that it was properly invoked. And to see, in those cases, where it was properly invoked, if there’s a way we can be more surgical, whether there is a way in which we can share more information.

A report is in the process of being prepared. I’ll expect I’ll have it in the not too distant future. And my hope is to be able to share the results of that report with the American people. So they’ll understand exactly – why we’ve had to use the state secret – state secrets doctrine in certain cases. And why we – decided not to use it in – in certain other cases.

Couric: So you think it’s appropriate to invoke it at certain times?

Holder: At certain times. But I want to make sure that we only do it where it’s absolutely necessary. I would only apply the doctrine where – national security was at stake, where the lives of the American people were at stake. Where sources and methods used by our intelligence – at – our intelligence assets were used. This is a very transparent administration.

This is going to be a very transparent Justice Department. But I’m not gonna sacrifice the safety of the American people or our ability to protect – the American homeland. And that is – as I said, first and foremost.

Couric: Having said that, do you believe the state secrets doctrine was abused by the Bush administration?

Holder: Well, I’m in the process of looking – that is being reviewed now. And so, I’ll see what the result of that – review is. And as I said, try to share the results of that review with the American people.

Couric: What’s your gut though?

Holder: Well, I don’t know. On the basis of the two, three cases that we’ve had to review so far – I think that the invocation of the doctrine was correct. We – we reversed – are in the process of looking at one case. But I think we’re likely to reverse it. …

Part of this whole problem began with one statement, impeachment is off the table, which unfortunately came from Speaker Pelosi, but which ended up sending a message, not only to Republicans, but especially to Democrats who don’t have the spine to hold Bush-Cheney accountable for their misdeeds, including investigations of possible crimes that have us looking back, including the act of torture, that was ordered on George W. Bush’s watch. As someone who was against impeachment of Bush, there can be no question that the lack of serious investigation of Bush administration actions helped cause the situation in which we now find ourselves. My point against impeachment was that it was putting the goal ahead of finding out what happened through serious investigation first. Unfortunately, that never happened. I also made it clear that due to the Iraq war I felt it was counterproductive on keeping our country’s eye on the ball when we were drowning in Iraq. But again, that shouldn’t have precluded Congress taking a strong investigative approach once the Dems got into power, but yet it actually did, because Pelosi’s singular statement became the facade behind which the Bush-Cheney administration remained in hiding, which now unfolds on to President Obama and his administration claiming the same types of egregious power grabs as his predecessor, while accountability goes poof. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi is caught in between, with her strong loyalty to Obama, and her job, stretched across a cleaver threatening to cut her power in two. Just watching her twist during Jon Stewart’s recent interview (as well as with Keith Olbermann) brought that reality into focus.

At the foundation, however, we have Barack Obama, someone who never presented himself when he was a candidate as someone who is confrontational or who seeks out to punish the power structure he sought to sit atop. As a candidate, Mr. Obama made it clear on FISA, voting in favor of warrantless wiretaps. So it’s really not a very far jump where we find ourselves today; that President Obama and his Justice department have claimed “state secrets” now that he’s part of the presidents’ club. His bipartisan zeal on the altar of allowing him to get things done, along with his passion to find common ground, also stops him, because he wants to make sure he has enough friends so that his agenda can get passed, because the goal of greatness is never far from any president’s mind.

The popularity of President Obama weighs down any inspiration he also might have for changing the page from Bush-Cheney “state secrets” privilege, citing national security, because at the foundation of the strategy is “protecting the American people,” something for which we all should be grateful, but which we should never allow to become a shield to protect the executive over the citizenry’s rights.

As in the case that began it all, United States v. Reynolds (1953), which Froomkin points to in his post, by the time the records are unsealed and the truth is known, the government culprits seeking cover are long gone and justice is too long denied to be served.

Sam Stein has more, including a statement from Justice on one case, Jewel v. NSA:

The administration recognizes that invoking the states secret privilege is a significant step that should be taken only when absolutely necessary. After careful consideration by senior intelligence and Department of Justice officials, it was clear that pursuing this case could unavoidably put at risk the disclosure of sensitive information that would harm national security.

An examination by the Director of National Intelligence and an internal review team established by the Attorney General determined that attempting to address the allegations in this case could require the disclosure of intelligence sources and methods that are used in a lawful manner to protect national security. The administration cannot risk the disclosure of information that could cause such exceptional harm to national security.

While the assertion of states secrets privilege is necessary to protect national security, the intelligence community’s surveillance activities are designed and executed to comply fully with the laws protecting the privacy and civil liberties of Americans. There is a robust oversight system to ensure this compliance.

What “robust oversight system”? At this point all we’re getting is that the Obama administration says so. Not good enough. President Obama has to prove it.

For my money, Louis Fisher was exactly correct. A “robust oversight system” would mean that a judge gets involved, behind closed doors so that no “state secrets” privilege claim can be violated, without knowing exactly who did it, a judge, which is unlikely, able to hear the Administration’s case, or seeing, at least in part, the national security issue that needs protecting. After seeing proof, then and only then can the “state secret” issue be satisfied through a “robust oversight system.”

No one wants national security violated.

But no citizen should allow the executive or judicial branches to protect themselves over the citizenry.

Via Glenn Greenwald, Sen. Feingold on the issue:

I am troubled that once again the Obama administration has decided to invoke the state secrets privilege in a case challenging the previous administration’s alleged misconduct. The Obama administration’s action, on top of Congress’s mistaken decision last year to give immunity to the telecommunications companies that allegedly participated in the warrantless wiretapping program, will make it even harder for courts to rule on the legality of that program. [...]

TPMMuckraker has been all over the issue as well. Along with the Jepesen case, as well as the al-Haramain Islamic Foundation regarding illegal wiretapping, where the Obama administration has claimed “state secrets,” long-time supporters of Barack Obama have found themselves betrayed, the trust they put in Mr. Obama used, with the result being a president just like Bush on these critical judicial matters for which Barack Obama, the candidate, lifted himself up.

The Obama administration does have some allies, however. Bill O’Reilly and the Red State crowd love pitting Obama against “the far left,” as they come down on Obama’s side because he’s supposedly “protecting national security,” all the while President Obama or his administration do not have to prove “state secrets” are actually at stake.

Emailing Dan Froomkin, Louis Fisher asks the bottom line question: “What check would exist for illegal actions by the executive branch?”

Under the Obama administration, just like Bush-Cheney, at this point, there are none.

UPDATE, 4-11: Obama is now also appealing the ruling re: three Bagram detainees.

Tina Foster, the executive director of the International Justice Network, which is representing the detainees, condemned the decision in a statement.

“Though he has made many promises regarding the need for our country to rejoin the world community of nations, by filing this appeal, President Obama has taken on the defense of one of the Bush administration’s unlawful policies founded on nothing more than the idea that might makes right,” she said.



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Tip O’Neill Cocktail Time

–This post has been bumped from Friday night–

Friday night free for all remains. Comments are open every Friday at this hour. But “In the News” is open, too, if you prefer.

Have a glass of whatever calms you down or revs you up, your choice.

You know the rules. We shake hands, talk politics, but also just let our hair down and catch up on what’s going on.

Salut!

Happy Easter. It’s the Masters, for you golf fans. Enjoy the weekend.

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Rove Not Adjusting Well to Public Humiliation

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Mr. Rove is having trouble post Bush. Looking at the Republicans, he has to be depressed. After eight years of Bush-Cheney the Republican party has collapsed, with a smaller portion of the electorate than can result in winning anything. But considering the incoming Bush and Cheney are also taking, including Cheney’s troubles if he decides to travel, with their policies also totally repudiated, the current unwinding of “Bush’s brain,” whose mission was anything but accomplished, is extraordinary by anyone’s standard.

Roves current name calling spree against Vice President Biden is one for the books. Of course, it happened on the Fox News channel:

“I hate to say this, but he’s a serial exaggerator,” Rove told FOX News. “If I was being unkind I would say liar. But it is a habit he ought to drop.”

It’s all about something Biden said about George W. Bush:

“I remember President Bush saying to me one time in the Oval Office,” Biden began, “‘Well, Joe,’ he said, ‘I’m a leader.’ And I said: ‘Mr. President, turn and around look behind you. No one is following.’”

Obviously, for Rove, who is now calling Biden a “blowhard” and a “liar,” it really can’t be just about what Biden says happened. Whether it did or not, well, I could care less, but it sure sounds like classic Biden. It also could happen in a flash.

As for Rove calling anyone a “liar,” well, that really takes some nerve, especially since Mr. Rove worked for Team Liars for all those years, including an episode that had President Bush and Mr. Cheney lying to the entire country about the case for WMDs, but also all matter of national security interests. I won’t even get into the Valerie Plame imbroglio, but if you want to turn to the U.S. attorney scandal, I’d say Mr. Rove would do well to refrain from calling anyone else a “liar.”

It’s that old consider the source issue.

I’d also say that the continual drama around Rove since leaving office is evidence that he’s having a very hard time adjusting to humiliation post Bush-Cheney. This exchange tells a fuller tale of Rove’s frustration, which is now spilling over into the public. Not good. But delicious for those who believe Mr. Rove has earned a little public discomfort.

graphic via Progressive Worldview

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Wanted: Private Pirates

Consider it a new calling for all you daring entrepreneurs. CEI calls it a “free-market solution.” But this is deadly serious stuff.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called the pirates “nothing more than criminals” and noted that they were not a new problem for the United States — though this was the first time in 200 years that pirates had captured an American vessel. “One of the very first actions that was undertaken by our country, in its very beginning, was to go after pirates along the Barbary Coast” of North Africa, Mrs. Clinton said at a State Department news conference, in which she called on the international community to “come together to end the scourge of piracy.”

Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of United States Central Command, said Thursday that two additional ships would be sent in coming days to the region around the Gulf of Aden and the coast of Somalia, to augment an international naval armada that had tried in vain to secure thousands of square nautical miles of sea.

I’ve been watching the pirate drama off the Somali coast as closely as anyone. I’ve only come up with one solution and it’s incredibly simple. Arm the sailors. In lieu of that, let loose the Special Forces commandos.

But via Tapped, we learn that the Competitive Enterprise Institute has come up with another solution. Tapped doesn’t link to it, but it comes in the form of an actual news release from CEI and it’s priceless stuff. Worthy of The Onion.

CEI OFFERS POTENTIAL SOLUTION TO PIRATE PROBLEM
Congress Should Consider Empowering Private Action Against Thugs of the High Seas

Washington, D.C., April 9, 2009— News that Somali pirates had seized an American ship and, after being repelled, held her captain hostage drew a response from analysts at the Competitive Enterprise Institute: the United States should consider authorizing private parties to attack pirate ships under little used instruments called “letters of marque and reprisal.”

The letters, specifically authorized in the Article 1 section 8 of the U.S. Constitution, allow private parties to attack and seize the property of other parties that have committed violations of international law. Congress has the power to grant the letters. The United States made significant use of them during the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812 and never joined 19th Century treaties in which European nations forswore their use. The U.S. issued letters of marque to ships during the Spanish-American War of 1898; and a civilian operated airship, The Resolute, operated under a letter marque during World War II. The letters also have a long history prior to the establishment of the United States. Elizabethan-era explorer and adventurer Sir Francis Drake operated under a letter of marque.

“The world has changed a lot since nations last made significant use of letters of marquee and reprisal. If Congress were to decide to issue them, it would certainly have to revisit the concept,” said CEI Senior Fellow Eli Lehrer. “It’s the type of free-market solution to a real problem that Congress should consider but hasn’t in any serious way.” Lehrer added.

CEI policy analyst Michelle Minton agreed. “American citizens have the right to defend themselves, regardless of their location,” said Minton. “If international governing bodies fail at the task, which repeated pirate attacks seem to indicate, the US government should do something,” she said. “Issuing letters of marque are one way to foster the protection of American citizens abroad without requiring an American military presence in foreign territory.”

With ideas like these you’d think they would lose their “institute” status.

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Hu-Rah

A computerized medical system the streamlines veteran medical records, which will aid vets in getting treated more quickly and efficiently. That’s just the beginning, though it will take great effort to manifest. President Obama announced it yesterday. It’s long overdue.

[...] The announcements are part of a larger effort to improve services for veterans. Mr. Obama’s budget for 2010 increases spending for veterans by $25 billion and funnels more money into programs for those who suffer mental health problems and traumatic brain injury.

Veterans’ advocacy groups called Thursday’s announcement an important step in smoothing the tangle of bureaucracy that frequently overburdens the veterans’ health care system. …

Secretary Shinseki and Robert Gates were there with Obama, as was Tammy Duckworth, after Republican Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina crawled down from his high horse to finally stop stonewalling her appointment as assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Paul Rieckhoff, executive director for Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, said it right on Rachel’s show last night when he said Burr is going to pay a price for blocking Duckworth. I hope so.

It’s the same type of behavior we see from other Republicans, like Sen. Inhofe, who on foreign soil, standing at a base in Afghanistan, called the President out for “gutting our military.” Such unpatriotic, un-American drivel from a man who has the nerve to call out the commander in chief on foreign soil, but at a U.S. military base no less.

Rush Limbaugh did the same thing recently on the radio. When a veteran, who announced himself as such, railed at Rush for being pro torture. The call begins civilly, but it didn’t take long for Rush to unleash his putrid vile at this veteran, treating him disrespectfully, before coming completely unglued. Via Media Matters:

CALLER: I served in the Marine Corps and the Army.

LIMBAUGH: Charles, Barack Obama is president of the United States today because of stupid, ignorant people who think like you do. You pose — you and your ignorance are the most expensive commodity this country has. You think you know everything. You don’t know diddly-squat.

As is the case with many Republicans who find themselves faced with soldiers with whom they disagree, or when they find themselves at a loss in an argument they cannot win, Rush attacked this soldier with such vehemence that the “support the troops” mantra he poses was revealed as being something reserved only for those vets who fall in line. Remember what the GOP did to Max Cleland, then John Kerry.

It’s not a small thing that after an Administration that talked a lot about veterans and “supporting the troops,” but instead served nothing but stop-loss and unending tours, leaving our armed forces stretched and worn, that Bush-Cheney ignored what continued to build at the V.A. on their watch. At any moment they could have taken action.

But it was President Barack Obama who put forth a new policy instituting Vets e-Records, which will be tough to implement, but gives all veterans hope that they won’t be lost in the system, finally getting the basic tools they have earned from a grateful nation who owes them so much.

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Bibi’s Two-State Tap Dance

One has to wonder where Roger Cohen gets his courage, but you’ve got to hand it to the guy. His latest column is a beauty, complete with calling out Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic for being a willing “stenographer” to Netanyahu in his recent interview. It’s not as if Bibi didn’t know Jeffrey would publish his “stop Iran or I will” threats, considering the timing of what was going on with Richard Holbrooke and Iran at that moment in The Hague.

Segue to Roger Cohen, emphasis added:

…You can’t accuse the Israelis of not crying wolf. Ehud Barak, now defense minister, said in 1996 that Iran would be producing nuclear weapons by 2004.

Now here comes Netanyahu, in an interview with his faithful stenographer Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, spinning the latest iteration of Israel’s attempt to frame Iran as some Nazi-like incarnation of evil:

“You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran.” [...]

Gates said the same thing recently when he opined that Israel wouldn’t strike Iran this year, and that any confrontation is years away.

But let’s face it. “Crying wolf,” as Cohen calls him out, is all Netanyahu’s got. It’s his challenge to the Obama administration, which was also delivered by his mini me, Avigdor Lieberman, when he said, “The Annapolis conference, it has no validity.” Bibi is counting on his American Likudniks to have his back, which they have already promised.

Another interesting part of Cohen’s column is Iran itself, beyond its leaders, which is known but rarely acknowledged here:

Netanyahu also makes the grotesque claim that the terrible loss of life in the Iran-Iraq war (started by Iraq) “didn’t sear a terrible wound into the Iranian consciousness.” It did just that, which is why Iran’s younger generation seeks reform but not upheaval; and why the country as a whole prizes stability over military adventure.

The wild-eyed Iranian caricature might apply to Ahmadinejad, but one wonders what will happen if he loses the election in June, with a “moderate” taking his place, which is not wholly implausible. What will Bibi do then, keep “crying wolf?” Maybe that’s already figured in.

Now Obama has announced we will join in on talks with Iran over their nuclear program (lack thereof is more like it). Yet another Netanyahu worry is the U.S. and Iran have common challenges in Afghanistan. The Persians have a natural antipathy for the Sunni Taliban, but speaking practically they don’t want a flood of refugees over their border.

This brings me to a bizarre analysis from Ghaith Al-Omari, quoted in the New York Times, an article that talks about President Obama’s plain speaking in Turkey: “Let me be clear: the United States strongly supports the goal of two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security. That is a goal that the parties agreed to in the road map and at Annapolis. That is a goal that I will actively pursue as president.”

Got that, Mr. Lieberman? As for Prime Minister Netanyahu, Ms. Al-Omari has this to say:

“At a minimum, Bibi will need to disown these statements and come out explicitly in support of the two-state solution before his meeting with President Obama,” said Ghaith Al-Omari, a former Palestinian negotiator who now works with the American Task Force on Palestine. “If not,” Mr. Al-Omari said, “the issue will become the focus of the meeting.”

Like it wouldn’t be the focus anyway? Netanyahu’s feelings are known, and considering the clout of the Christian right Likudnik crew in this country, well, that’s part of Bibi’s equation.

The thing is, President Obama is betting too. It’s that he’s got more power on his side, including a moment in history to exploit in favor of equilibrium, as Steve Clemons identifies it (not to be confused with peace), particularly since American Jews aren’t on Bibi’s side. They’re on Barack’s, and I bet he knows it. From an April J Street survey:

By 76-24 percent, American Jews support a two-state, final status deal between Israel and the Palestinians along the lines of the agreement nearly reached eight years ago during the Camp David and Taba talks…

As for Netanyahu’s fantasy that Arab states will fall in line behind Israel on the notion they’ll see Iran as more dangerous than Bibi, well, don’t hold your breath. King Abdullah of Jordan, via Haaretz today:

“King Abdullah underscored the importance of the role of Europe and the world community in pushing forward the peace talks between the Palestinian and Israeli sides towards the establishment of just peace based on relevant UN resolutions and the Arab peace initiative,” it added.

King Abdullah’s remarks reflected concerns on the part of the Jordanian leadership as to the future of the Arab-Israeli peace process after the new right-wing government, led by Netanyahu, failed to unequivocally support the two-state formula.

Bibi “stop Iran or I will” Netanyahu and his mini me foreign minister will be in real trouble, however, if Ahmadinejad loses the upcoming election, with his disastrous economic leadership a real problem for him. As much as Netanyahu and Lieberman detest Ahmadinejad, Israel’s codependent relationship with him is what makes the Middle East go ’round… and ’round… and ’round in circles. On the other hand, the presence of Netanyahu and Lieberman might play a role in uniting hardliners and nationalists behind Ahmadinejad. But who am I kidding? If Ahmadinejad didn’t exist, Netanyahu and Lieberman would just make him up.

Equilibrium is our best hope.

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