Amidst the chaos of health care and the Obama administration’s messaging ineptitude, I see it all through the prism of the news that Tom Delay will be joining “Dancing with the Stars.” Domestic news turning into an edition of theater of the absurd today. So, let’s turn to a few underreported events around the world.
The best article today is by Rajiv Chandrasekaran in the Washington Post, telling the tale about what led to the firing of David D. McKiernan, the top U.S. commander in Kabul. What I tweeted yesterday says it all (using Twitter to write notes on news): “too languid, too old-school & too removed from Washington; lacked charisma”. The article is a must read, especially with what’s unfolding this week.
The joke of the day also comes out of Afghanistan, with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar offering the Don’t Believe It On Your Life statement below. The only thing more hilarious is CNN headline writers calling Hekmatyar a “maverick.” This thug warlord is wanted by the Pentagon.
An Afghan militant group is willing to “help” U.S. and coalition forces, if they prepare to leave Afghanistan, the group’s leader said in a statement given to CNN on Monday. “We are ready to help with the United States and … other coalition forces if foreign troops announce the time frame for the pulling out their troops from Afghanistan,” said Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former Afghan prime minister and leader of the pro-Taliban Hizb-e-Islami militant group.
The Afghanistan election is up front and center. From Center for Strategic and International Studies a brief question and answer section from Karin von Hippel and Alyssa Bernstein that I received via email:
Q1: How will the elections impact Afghanistan?
A1: No matter who wins the August 20 elections, the results will be considered a positive step for Afghanistan if they are perceived as mostly free and fair (most analysts expect some fraud and security problems). Alternatively, if vote buying and corruption alter the results in a significant manner, or security concerns prevent large numbers of people from voting, violent protests could occur and the consequences could be harsh not only for Afghanistan’s democratic potential, but for the war against the Taliban. Afghan and international security forces will be deployed to secure polling stations and prevent violence, and the elections will test their effectiveness.
There are several potential outcomes:
- The incumbent Hamid Karzai wins in the first round of elections with slightly more than the 50 percent + 1 required by Afghan law. In this case, there may be protests, but this outcome may lead to less instability than the others. Karzai wins with more than 60 percent of the vote. This will likely result in accusations of fraud, public challenges by competing candidates, and potentially widespread violence in the north and in Kabul where many Tajiks live.
- Karzai does not win in the first round, and there is a runoff—probably between Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, who most polls place in second place. Some predict violence in this scenario as well, especially if turnout is low in the south because of Taliban attacks and if Pashtuns feel disenfranchised. If security forces can control the situation in the immediate aftermath of an announcement, this could provide the space needed to prepare for the runoff. Ahmad Wali Karzai, President Karzai’s brother, recently announced negotiations with several Taliban groups in the region for election-day peace, which could allow more polling centers to open and enable more to vote.
- Karzai wins in the second round of elections, which would take place in October, a month after final results of the first election are announced in early September. There is a slight chance Abdullah could win in the second round. Either candidate may try to form a coalition with some of the other candidates, notably Ashraf Ghani, who is a distant fourth in the polling but considered a competent technocrat (especially by the international community).
The elections are already rife with problems. Weeks before the election there were accusations of corruption, especially against Karzai, with thousands of fake voter registration cards discovered in many parts of the country. Hundreds of polling stations may not open because of fear of violence and difficult access. The Taliban is openly threatening voters in an effort to keep turnout low, and insurgent groups have already been scaling up violence. Campaigning candidates are frequently attacked, especially outside their home districts. However, the Afghan population is committed to voting, and NATO and U.S. forces are engaged across the country to prevent Taliban attacks. There is some risk that not enough people will be able to reach polling centers and that corruption will create a questionable margin. Depending on who wins, there are risks that protests in the north and south could break out if groups feel their candidate has been cheated. Some of Abdullah’s supporters have already threatened violence if he does not win.
Often forgotten, but also important, are the 3,300 candidates running for provincial councils, who will be voted on at the same time. These councils could become more important as emphasis shifts from strong centralized government in Afghanistan to effective provincial governments that hold the president accountable. Given the complex network of tribal leaders and ties in the country, however, the importance of the elected councils is unclear.
There’s an important piece in Foreign Policy on Russia by Sarah E. Mendelson, who is also associated with CSIS. Violence in the Northern Caucus is exploding, with plenty of foreshadowing to warn it was coming.
The murders of journalists, lawyers, and human rights and humanitarian activists rate even less attention. Three years ago, when investigative journalist Anna Politkovaskaya was murdered in her apartment building in Moscow one Saturday afternoon, shock and outrage emanated from Washington and capitals across Europe. Everyone thinks she was killed for her investigative journalism on the North Caucasus. But a long period of ambivalence, indifference, and silence followed that brief spasm of anger.
The murder on a Moscow street of her young lawyer, Stanislav Markelov, happened the day before Barack Obama’s inauguration, this past January; attention was elsewhere. A few weeks ago, another murder took place — this time of human rights activist Natasha Estemirova. She was kidnapped outside her home in Grozny, the Chechen capital, shot, and left in a field, in neighboring Ingushetia. The day before her murder, Human Rights Watch had published a report based in part on information she provided on summary executions and house-burnings in Chechnya.
And, this week, word came that two more activists, Zarema Sadulayeva and Alik Dzhabrailov, had been kidnapped in Grozny. An e-mail subsequently informed me that the bodies of this director of an orphans’ charity and her husband had been found in the trunk of their car.
Juan Cole writes Hamas Crushes Islamist Group in Gaza, with video.
President Mubarak in Washington, speaks about normalizing relations with Israel:
U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell in July called on Arab states to take “meaningful steps towards normalization of relations with Israel.”
“I affirmed to [U.S.] President [Barack] Obama in Cairo that the Arab initiative offers recognition of Israel and normalization with it after, and not before, achieving a just and comprehensive peace,” Mubarak told al-Ahram.
“I told him that some Arab states which had mutual trade representation offices with Israel could consider reopening those offices if Israel commits to stopping settlement [building] and resumes final status negotiations with the Palestinian Authority where they left off with Olmert’s government,” Mubarak added.
You may now return to the President’s health care insanity, which has spiraled out of his control, with The Hill offering the headline of the day: Obama picks fight with left on health reform. Actually, it will likely evolve into a fight within the Democratic Party, because scuttling any health care reform at all isn’t exactly appealing to everyone.
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