TM Connect


Use "My TM" for log in & register.

Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Archive | November, 2009

Goldstone Here, Italian Court Over There

By on 04 November 2009

As if we needed more instruments of division to get in Pres. Obama’s way (see video). Oh, and please ignore that CIA case over rendition too.

House Res. opposing the Goldstone report passes overwhelmingly.

Meanwhile, an Italian court convicts 23 Americans in rendition case. Oh, didn’t hear about that?

An Italian court on Wednesday convicted 22 CIA operatives and a U.S. Air Force colonel of orchestrating the kidnapping of a Muslim cleric here in 2003 and flying him to Egypt, where he said he was tortured.

In rendering the verdict, the judge in the case, Oscar Magi, acquitted three other Americans, including the former Rome station chief for the CIA, saying they were covered by diplomatic immunity.

The Americans were all tried in absentia but were represented throughout the trial by defense attorneys, most of them court-appointed. The U.S. defendants who were convicted each received a five-year prison sentence, with the exception of Robert Seldon Lady, the CIA’s former chief in Milan, who was sentenced to eight years for overseeing the kidnapping plot. …

As Clinton finishes up her trip, in Cairo, the Egyptians weigh in on negotiations:

…Egypt’s Gheit said while Egypt does not accept any continued Israeli settlement activity, it supports the Obama administration’s push to get Israel Palestinian peace talks restarted sooner than later. “The Americans did not change their positions about refusing settlement expansion,” Gheit said Clinton explained to Egyptian leaders. “But the Americans are now asking all parties to start the negotiations. The Egyptian response to that is that it is the Israeli side that is impeding the process and it is clear that the Israelis are putting conditions to the negotiations by holding on to settlement expansion even if limited. Because the Secretary of State believes there is progress in Israel’s position on the issue of freezing settlement activity even if incomplete or not satisfactory. What the Eyptians think is should focus on the end game and not hold on to this or that issue on the way to negotiations.”

The Obama administration is not weighing in on the rendition convictions. Another Bush hot potato they won’t touch or clean up. This is just embarrassing, especially for spooks, who have obviously been watching too much James Bond:

According to Italian investigators, the CIA operatives failed to cover their tracks as several of them gabbed on unsecured cellphones, showed their passports to hotel desk clerks and went on vacation in Italian resorts after the kidnapping.

Lady, the CIA’s chief in Milan, also left incriminating evidence on a computer seized from his Italian villa by investigators, including flight schedules to Egypt and a draft road map of the route used by the kidnappers to whisk Nasr out of Milan.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Sarah Palin, Rush on NY-23

By on 04 November 2009

Via Facebook, naturally:

… The race for New York’s 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010. The issues of this election have always centered on the economy – on the need for fiscal restraint, smaller government, and policies that encourage jobs. In 2010, these issues will be even more crucial to the electorate. I commend Doug Hoffman and all the other under-dog candidates who have the courage to put themselves out there and run against the odds. …

ScreenHunter_04 Nov. 04 13.36

Rush was on fire today, which I tweeted here, here, here and here.

Chris Kelly offers the CW on Hoffman’s loss, though he’s by no means alone on his opinion. It’s shallow and shortsighted.

What Mr. Kelly misses in his exuberance, which I appreciate because there wasn’t much to be found for Dems last night, is the miracle that Hoffman got so far in the first place. I saw a tape of part of his concession speech, played on the midnight edition of “Hardball.” The man has NO POLITICAL TALENT WHATSOEVER. Emotion and sharing stark conservative views fueled this candidacy, with Hoffman representing the Palin Party line. Conservatives came out & almost pulled it off, plus showed the GOP establishment they could do it. You can bet Charlie Crist isn’t laughing. Blue Dogs aren’t either.

But Owens is still the first Democrat to hold the seat since Ulysses S. Grant, according to Axelrod, who thought last night’s election disasters were important enough that he even appeared on Andrea Mitchell’s show, which isn’t exactly ratings central.

Hey, I’ll take the Owens win, gladly. But no one should be deluded into thinking it will stop Palin and her tea party pals.

4. With Bill Owens ‘ (D) victory in the New York 23rd district special election that makes five straight wins in contested specials over the past two years for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In 2008, the DCCC won in Illinois’ 14th, Louisiana’s 6th and Mississippi’s 1st. This year, Rep. Scott Murphy (D) won in New York’s 20th. A very impressive record in tough-to-figure-out specials. – Chris Cilizza

Read full story · Comments are closed

Remembering a Revolution and Its Impact

By on 04 November 2009

Thirty years ago today an international drama played out that would eventually take down an American president, ushering in a conservative titan that changed the Republican party forever and who was in large part responsible, another thirty years later, for a financial crash to which we’re still trying to dig out way out. The current mood of the American electorate tells us we have not.

Obama released this statement late last night, what’s in bold the salient section:

Thirty years ago today, the American Embassy in Tehran was seized. The 444 days that began on November 4, 1979 deeply affected the lives of courageous Americans who were unjustly held hostage, and we owe these Americans and their families our gratitude for their extraordinary service and sacrifice.

This event helped set the United States and Iran on a path of sustained suspicion, mistrust, and confrontation. I have made it clear that the United States of America wants to move beyond this past, and seeks a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect. We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs. We have condemned terrorist attacks against Iran. We have recognized Iran’s international right to peaceful nuclear power. We have demonstrated our willingness to take confidence-building steps along with others in the international community. We have accepted a proposal by the International Atomic Energy Agency to meet Iran’s request for assistance in meeting the medical needs of its people. We have made clear that if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community.

Iran must choose. We have heard for thirty years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.

The outcome of the revolution was varied (it’s not Jimmy Carter’s favorite memory), but it certainly gave some in this country a suspicion of all things Iranian, including those trying to bridge the divide caused by zealots. During J Street, Michael Goldfarb’s attack against Trita Parsi, someone I have interacted with and heard through conference calls, accused him of being “Iran’s man in DC.” The right always willing to defame someone for suggesting a relationship with the Iranians would be good for this country and our national security, but maybe even Israel’s. Blasphemy! The Goldfarbs of the world, to include Jeffrey Goldberg, evidently not getting how the Iranians helped us in Afghanistan after 9/11, and how they could again. For the right, no dialogue is their strategy, no matter the cost. All of this coming out of what happened 30 years ago today, as the right builds on suspicion that long ago quit doing anyone any good.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Party’s Over

By on 04 November 2009

hoffman_ny23

Everybody is an independent. Obama’s non-ideological penchant has spread. It’s the antidote to tea partyism.

Dan Baltz has the traditional view:

The most significant change came among independent voters, who solidly backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 but moved decisively to the Republicans on Tuesday, according to exit polls. In Virginia, independents strongly supported Republican Robert F. McDonnell in his victory over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, while in New Jersey, they supported Republican Chris Christie in his win over Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine.

For months, polls have shown that independents were increasingly disaffected with some of Obama’s domestic policies. They have expressed reservations about the president’s health-care efforts and have shown concerns about the growth in government spending and the federal deficit under his leadership. …

Obama’s bailout was a disaster, but as far as “health-care efforts”, you can argue that too little has been done leaving voters empty, while they wonder why Wall Street is flying high, with health care unfortunately now part of that mix.

The model win for the night was Bob McDonnell in Virginia who didn’t run ads identifying himself as a Republican even though he’s farther to the right than most on the national scene.

In other words, in the age of Obama, it’s now more about personality power over party ideology even more than it was before. However, when you have someone like Deeds who isn’t as talented as Obama, and send them out into an election without core principles on which to campaign and fight, they’re going to get shellacked.

It’s not for amateurs.

After watching a brief clip of Mr. Hoffman on the late night version of “Hardball” last night, all I could think of was how in the world did he get this far? Worst politician I’ve seen on camera at this level in a very long time. But he and his tea party friends managed to knock off Scozzafava, even as she helped knock him off. We Democrats, salute you.

The New Jersey loss is the big one, which will likely send shockwaves through the Blue Dogs, as well as the Bayh, Lincoln, Nelson and Lieberman coalition in the Senate. This bodes ill for real health care reform and big accomplishments, which is the only way Dems can make the case in 2010, because Obama won’t be on the ballot next year either.

Hey, but a least we’re not Republicans, who are in the throes of a political war. Democrats don’t have that kind of passion to worry about at this point. We’re all hoped out. See Maine.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Obama Not a Factor, But Independents Flood to GOP

By on 03 November 2009

multiple updates below
(Post originally logged @ 8:38 pm)

Earthquake in New Jersey, according to Fox News and CNN. On top of the independent voter news, this is huge. But in NY-23, the tea party activist candidate Hoffman is on his way to a loss, with the Dem possibly winning in a district we haven’t won in 200 years, though final tallies won’t be ready until tomorrow. Tea party activists came close, but maybe not enough. Though not long ago a Hoffman supporter said, “it’s over.” To tea party activists it will be a disappointment, but it won’t matter. It was about more than winning for them. It was about backing people they want in office, no matter the costs, even if they lose. Message sent. For Republicans, the civil war continues.

christiewins

Health care freezes now. Blue Dogs and other Dems won’t budge on big legislation. All this with the Republican brand in tatters.

ScreenHunter_05 Nov. 03 20.56

Via CNN:

In Virginia, where 30 percent of voters identify themselves as independent; 65 percent cast their ballots for CNN’s projected winner, Republican Bob McDonnell. That’s according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Democrat Creigh Deeds earned the votes of 34 percent of independents.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie took 58 percent of the independent vote while incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, got only 31 percent. Independent candidate Chris Daggett got just 9 percent of the independent vote. Independents made up 28 percent of the voters in New Jersey race.

Christie leading huge in early returns.

Polls over the last couple of months have revealed a trend away from Democrats. It now seems to have manifested. We shall see as the night deepens.

Six in 10 New Jersey voters said Tuesday that President Obama had no effect on their vote in this off-year gubernatorial election, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. – CNN

Except on Fox, where Bill O’Reilly and Karl Rove said the opposite. I know, you’re shocked.

As for Creigh Deeds, standing for nothing has consequences, as does running as a Blue Dog in a state that likes strong. Deeds saying he would “opt-out” of the public option was the end for Democrats. See conversation with my friend Mash (a Virginian) @ Facebook.

What’s on voters’ minds? Via CBS:

A majority of voters in both states said they are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy over the next year. 85 percent of Virginia voters said they are worried, as are 90 percent of voters in New Jersey. These percentages were similar on Election Day in 2008.

In both states the economy topped the list of issues that mattered most to voters in their choice for governor – in Virginia health care was second, while in New Jersey the second choice was property taxes.

… Still, majorities of voters in both states (55 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (20 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (18 percent) than against him (24 percent).

…and I want to take you back to the National Journal’s new media poll from last week. What are the two big issues for 2010? I said economy, but also added my own category to include GOTV. Tonight I’ve been proved correct on both. From ABC:

Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday’s off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. …

Yep, it’s still “the economy, stupid.”

ScreenHunter_06 Nov. 03 21.29

Read full story · Comments are closed

Lawyers in Jersey, Smooth Talking Aliens on TV

By on 03 November 2009

updated

Christie to Sean Hannity earlier today: “I’ve got 300 lawyers” ready and waiting, so Gov. Corzine better beware.

TPMMuckaker’s Zachary Roth sets it up perfectly: Another election, another boatload of evidence-free Republican claims of voter fraud…

Hannity was doing his best to stir the post on this one, with Christie joining in. The proof? Non-existent. It’s just what these guys do to preemptively excuse a close loss. At least, let’s hope it’s a loss, because if Corzine loses the reverberations will freeze health care in place until the pols shake the chill. Who knows how long that could take.

TO ADD… If this story had broken before today Dems would have been in real trouble.

In a blow to the White House, the Senate’s top Democrat signaled Tuesday that Congress may fail to meet a year-end deadline for passing health care legislation, leaving the measure’s fate to the uncertainties of the 2010 election season. …

As for Virginia, McDonnell’s people were everywhere, with people at the polling station in Alexandria saying turn-out had been steady all day. I bet they’re Republicans, because Deeds hasn’t had a chance for weeks. Maybe if he’d run proudly with Democratic issues leading the way, instead of a Blue Dog Dem trying to compromise to look moderate, he’d have had a chance. But it’s going to be grim in Virginia tonight.

NY-23 is a win for conservatives (or is it?), as well as Sarah Palin, which will stoke the enthusiasm for 2010, as well as foreshadow what’s ahead for Gov. Crist in Florida. The tea party activists are going to go after him with a vengeance.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, ABC’s “V” premiers tonight. It’s been quite the talk among some, myself included, due to it’s not so subtle shots at, as the Chicago Tribune reviews it, “Obamamania.” As for tinsel town, the LA Times doesn’t touch that one. From the Chicago Tribune:

Imagine this. At a time of political turmoil, a charismatic, telegenic new leader arrives virtually out of nowhere. He offers a message of hope and reconciliation based on compromise and promises to marshal technology for a better future that will include universal health care.

The news media swoons in admiration — one simpering anchorman even shouts at a reporter who asks a tough question: “Why don’t you show some respect?!” The public is likewise smitten, except for a few nut cases who circulate batty rumors on the Internet about the leader’s origins and intentions. The leader, undismayed, offers assurances that are soothing, if also just a tiny bit condescending: “Embracing change is never easy.”

So, does that sound like anyone you know? Oh, wait — did I mention the leader is secretly a totalitarian space lizard who’s come here to eat us? … ..

As a TV tivo-ing fiend, I can’t wait to see this one.

The counter programming for this Election Night comes from HBO. “By The People: The Election of Barack Obama” comes out one year after Barack Obama’s historic presidential election.

Election Day politics, “V”, and a documentary on Obama’s presidential win. The only thing that could top it is another Brooks Brothers’ brawl in New Jersey. Stay tuned.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Election 2009 and Obama’s Plaintive Cry

By on 03 November 2009

bumped – updated

ScreenHunter_03 Nov. 03 09.09
Arianna Huffington nails it again, a follow up to “Leaderless.”

There’s no getting around it. One year after Barack Obama won an historic election he’s simply not delivered. Tavis Smiley said it well on “Morning Joe” yesterday when he used NY-23 as a model. Paraphrasing Smiley, he said Democrats need to do what Republicans would do if they had the majority: cram their agenda down our throats, just like conservatives are doing in upstate New York. Kumbaya doesn’t cut it. Neither does splitting the difference until you stand for nothing.

Case in point, today I woke up to a circa 2008 election ad from Obama touting Creigh Deeds. It’s a little late.

“We can do it again,” flashing across the screen, with Pres. Obama plaintively crying out, “I need every one of you to get fired up once again so that we can….”, as the rest of his request dissolves into political blather ending in the case that Creigh Deeds is the answer. No Democrat I’ve talked to believes that. Virginia has reverted back to red, where it’s most comfortable, because no one is seeing hope of change right now.

And at the end of this day Democrats will likely be answering to someone liberals love to hate. Sarah Palin will be declaring victory on Facebook, as her “going rogue” style in NewYork-23 will be the story tomorrow, if Hoffman pulls it off. Giving the conservatives a boost that will seem like Christmas came early. Delivering their own brand of “hope” and “change” in an in your face slap at the Republican establishment that has already had repercussions, while providing an answer to Obama’s “We can do it again” heard as “No you won’t,” which will start the 2010 engine for the right.

Let’s just hope Corzine holds on and doesn’t humiliate himself and Pres. Obama, because a loss in New Jersey and Virginia on a backdrop of NY-23 would be a Democratic earthquake, with aftershocks hitting for the next year.


UPDATE: David Plouffe responds to Arianna, though I really don’t think it’s about our need to “focus squarely enough to see it.” In fact, we got him elected. So, it’s not about us at all:

[...] Arianna Huffington has written much that I agree with. But when it comes to her opinion on the president and his record so far, or her suggestion that there is some great difference between the president and the candidate, I have to register the strongest possible dissent. A year after our historic victory, I have never been more certain that Barack Obama is uniquely suited to lead the country at this unparalleled moment. His values; his ability and desire to think long term; his determination to avoid the easy road of political expedience and to rebuild trust between the American people and their government–these are exactly what American needs right now. As on any journey, there will be twists and turns, ups and downs. But the change so many of us fought for so passionately last year is becoming a reality in front of our eyes, if we focus squarely enough to see it. And when the decisions he is making today finally resolve into a complete picture years down the road, we will find ourselves living in a stronger, fairer, and more prosperous America. And we will cherish the small part all of us played in electing this unique leader, a man befitting this critical moment in our history.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Lieberman Camp Denies Hill Report

By on 03 November 2009

“If you believe this story is true, you will also believe that I am replacing A-Rod in game six of the series. The suggestion reported in the Hill that Senator Lieberman has made a ‘private understanding’ on his votes on health care reform is absolutely not true,” Wittmann said. “Senator Lieberman’s clear position is that he will vote for the motion to proceed to the health care bill because he supports health care reform that will control costs and insure people who don’t have it now, but will oppose cloture on a final bill if it contains a public option.” – Fox News

szep_lieberman
used by permission

This soundly rebuts The Hill report that Sen. Lieberman had reached a “private understanding” with Reid on the filibuster.

Lieberman will vote to move the discussion to the Senate floor, but has no intention of voting for a health care bill that contains a public option.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Obama Stays Away from Maine

By on 03 November 2009

DNC update below

The whole country is watching Maine.

Except Obama for America, at least not in the way that matters.

From John Aravosis:

Joe wrote last night about how the DNC’s “Organizing for America” organization (formerly known as “Obama for America”) emailed Maine voters yesterday about today’s election, but failed to mention the anti-gay ballot measure that is the number one issue in the state right now.

Today things got worse. We just received a copy of an email message that OFA sent to Maine voters yesterday asking them to get involved in…. New Jersey! …

John’s also got a copy of the email that OfA sent out.

But really, Pres. Obama doesn’t need the gay community’s votes right now. He’s focused on Olympia.


UPDATE: As far as I can tell, there seems to have been a snafu of some sort, which resulted in a small number of Mainers receiving the email Aravosis posted. I reached out to a DNC official for clarification and here’s what he said: “There may have been some Mainers who inadvertently got the email, but it was not sent to our Maine list.”

This post has been slightly edited.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Best Guilty Political Pleasure

By on 03 November 2009
fightclub

It’s Politico’s CLICK.

Yesterday my jaw was on the floor due to the Washington Post fight club report, by Michael Calderone.

Oh, and by the way, at this point in the day, 65% who took the CLICK poll will be watching election results on Fox News Channel.

UPDATE: WashingtonCityPaper tracks the fisticuffs from start to finish. (h/t Memeorandum)

Read full story · Comments are closed

Election Tuesday Eve: Palin Hits VA with Ralph Reed

By on 02 November 2009

updated

Tom Davis, a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, said he still believes the race is a tossup but also expected Scozzafava supporters to swing toward Owens. “This is not a Sarah Palin district, and they tried to make it that way. In a three-way race, you could have gotten 35 to 40 percent to win the seat, and now they need close to 50 percent,” Davis said. “It’s clear in the Watertown part of the district that Hoffman is not the second choice.” – Winning Dede Scozzafava: How Democrats got her nod

Tom Davis may have to eat that one. Meanwhile…

“Vote your values,” Virginia, this has been brought to you by Sarah Palin, who is now in a little skirmish with Joe Biden. Via Sarah’s Facebook page: “There’s one way to tell Vice President Biden that we’re tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation’s progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!”

The Hill has the story behind what prompted Sarah’s retort.

Wingnut radio was on steroids today (and that’s before Sean Hannity’s mini-me Mark Levine gets his chance tonight ). Hannity had both Hoffman and Christie on, making sure to stir up trouble in the New Jersey race, as he falsely served up the possibility of Corzine illegalities, without any proof whatsoever, then used ACORN as a warning of what else might happen.

As for Virginia, Bob McDonnell won’t claim Sarah Palin, as she teams up with Ralph Reed, who is on his comeback tour after skulking off the political scene in disgrace. Palin has done a robocall for McDonnell, Via ABC. This is truly hilarious:

Republican Bob McDonnell kept his distance from Sarah Palin on Monday even as the former Alaska governor had begun making automated phone calls to more than 300,000 Virginia households on behalf of a conservative group, urging them to vote their values in Tuesday’s election.

“I don’t know anything about them,” McDonnell told ABC News on Monday when asked about the Palin robocalls which are paid for by the Virginia chapter of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, a socially conservative group headed at the national level by Ralph Reed, the former head of the Christian Coalition.…

Democrats are actually going lose to this guy. I’m sure they’ll blame Obama, but this one is on the Virginia Democratic party and Creigh Deeds. Meanwhile, a lot of people will likely vote for Democrats down ticket, but leave Deeds empty as a protest. Who can blame them? It’s better than not voting at all, because there are other names on the ballot deserving.

Republicans are expecting wins in NY-23 and Virginia, while hoping for New Jersey, too. It would be very sweet if Scozzafava’s supporters tipped it towards Owens, though in the end I don’t care, as Owens, as far as I can tell, would be just another Blue Dog Dem. However, with polls showing Hoffman up 5 points and wingnut radio going to bat all day for him, it’s unlikely. To add, Mike Murphy tweets what really happened to NBC’s Chuck Todd:

@chucktodd all that really happened in NY23 was that a voters forced primary and Dede lost. She was the paper creation of 11 county chairs.

Tomorrow will kick off a year-long election cycle for 2010, which is already in full swing on your radio dial. The biggest GOTV rallying cry in American media today, led now by Glenn Beck far more than Rush Limbaugh. See Hoffman in NY-23 if you don’t believe me.

Read full story · Comments are closed

One Year Later, Karzai ‘Wins’ by Default

By on 02 November 2009

“Needless to say, this is not where we wanted to be after nine months,” commented a senior aide to the president. – AfPak Channel (via New York Times)

One year since Barack Obama won the election, come November 4th, the above statement seems apt, though not just for Afghanistan or Karzai’s “win.”

Anthony Cordesman defines the latest development this way: President Obama must now make a decision that will define his presidency. Many agree, though any time someone, including experts, use terms like “win” and Afghanistan in the same argument it makes me shudder. That language sorely outdated and in need of 21st century re-imagining.


Video covers full story.

And as much as I don’t like Karzai, it’s clear Abdullah Abdullah wasn’t the man for Afghanistan. If he isn’t willing to fight for his country at a critical point, it’s hard to argue that he’d be a better choice.

That said, the general consensus from experts I’ve talked to was that the whole runoff was a “charade” anyway, with some suggesting no work had even begun for the elections.

The outcome or lack thereof in Afghanistan is all bad news. For the women in that country it is a disaster. For U.S. policy it’s almost as bad.

SecDef Gates (with whom I agreed) has also been proved right; that Obama’s strategy required implementation regardless of the election, with John Kerry and many others proved astoundingly wrong. Kerry looks ridiculous at this point, having gone so far out on a limb, though he’s by no means alone. Winter coming doesn’t change this fact.

Karzai wins, the Afghanistan people and the women in that country lose. Our mission more critical than ever.

Of course, few on the left agree. It’s not about al Qaeda, which Obama’s adviser Jones and others have said number less than 100. Once that rational disappears you often hear people like Chris Matthews and other ill informed (translation: ignorant) individuals talking about “defeating the Taliban,” which cannot be done. The Taliban is part of the Afghan consciousness, which cannot be eradicated from the fabric of the country any more than drugs can.

So, without al Qaeda and the Taliban, why are we in Afghanistan?

The country is a strategic linchpin to our central and south Asia national security strategy in an area of the world that is also nuclearized. (I’ll leave the possibility of an oil pipeline through Afghanistan sometime in the future, which could change the economic structure of that country forever, alone for now.) As we focus on supporting the Pakistanis who are just now getting a clue that the extremists in that country threaten the survival of everyday Pakistanis, Afghanistan is linked to Pakistan due to the make up of the region itself, with the trifecta actually also including India. A country whose involvement in Afghanistan makes Pakistan nervous and is one reason why they fund the Afghan Taliban. A Kabul government chummy with India is Pakistan’s worst nightmare, never mind that their preoccupation with India has allowed the Pakistani Taliban, Al Qaeda and other militants to thrive in their own country, which is now dawning.

There is also a human rights aspect to being involved in Afghanistan through the women of that country, which are its hopes. It goes beyond COIN and certainly counterterrorism to involve empowerment of a tortured and subjugated group of Afghans that the country cannot prosper without. Though with Karzai at the top, given his deplorable record against women’s human rights, as well as his corruption and collusion with the “warlords” the Bush-Cheney policy created, our job just got tougher, much, much tougher.

Pres. Obama started out by talking of Afghanistan in “necessary war” terms, with women’s rights part of the struggle for this country. We don’t hear much about that these days, not even from Sect. Clinton. It’s not where any of us thought we’d be nine months out.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Gordian Knot it Isn’t

By on 02 November 2009

updated

Clinton has issued yet another statement on Israeli settlements trying to get herself out of what she said this weekend. That one didn’t go over very well.

“This offer falls far short of what our preference would be but if it is acted upon it will be an unprecedented restriction on settlements and would have a significant and meaningful effect on restraining their growth.” – Clinton: Israel’s settlement offer falls short of U.S. wishes

This is what jumbled diplomacy looks like. To add to the mix, Ben Smith has now judged Clinton a “liability for the administration.”

To recap, standing beside Netanyahu over the weekend Clinton pretty much praises Israel’s “unprecedented” efforts towards ending settlements; today at a conference of Arab foreign ministers she says Netanyahu hasn’t gone far enough. All of this coming after Obama’s line in the sand that Clinton repeated.

Laura Rozen has more.

Clinton will meet with several Arab leaders including Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, who won’t buy what Netanyahu is pushing on settlements, which he made clear last spring at the Saudi conference I attended.

Damage done.

“I am telling you that all of us, including Saudi Arabia, including Egypt, are deeply disappointed … with the results, with the fact that Israel can get away with anything without any firm stand that this cannot be done,” Moussa told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Morocco.

Amr Moussa is the Arab League’s Secretary-General, the leader of a group that is attempting to shore up Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, and not just because of January elections. Against the backdrop of Netanyahu’s continued stall, but also the Goldstone report, a united Arab front was required. Though it’s clear that with elections coming we’re at yet another stalling out of negotiations, this one even more serious.

Pres. Obama came in with capital that has now been diminished, partially due to domestic challenges he misjudged, but also because he has not been willing to spend that capital personally since his Cairo speech. In the Middle East among Arabs, at least for now, hope has sputtered out.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Palestinians: Obama ‘Backpedaling’ on Settlements

By on 02 November 2009

Palestinian officials on Sunday criticized the United States for what one called “back-pedaling” on demands that Israel stop settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, saying that the Obama administration’s change of approach on the issue damaged the likelihood of a peace agreement. … The settlement freeze has become central to those perceptions: both Egypt and Jordan on Sunday issued statements backing Abbas’ position that talks cannot resume until settlement construction is stopped. – Palestinian officials criticize U.S. over Israeli settlements

Pres. Obama and his administration have decided to go all in, just like the ones who came before, hoping for a different result. That Obama had Sect. Clinton deliver the news while in Israel seems to have come as a cold slap to our Arab friends who had hoped for so much more after Cairo. Hey, talk is cheap, especially when it comes to the Middle East. But once the Goldstone report was delivered, everything shifted pretty quickly; Israel wanting a condemnation, which it got; with Obama asking Abbas to slow up the report in the United Nations Human Rights Council, which he did, hurting Abbas badly.

Now Clinton’s trying to do the dance of the settlements using language that should catch in her throat.

From Haaretz:

“It has always been an issue with negotiations,” she said. “What the Prime Minister has offered in specifics of a restraint on the policy of settlements which he has just described – no new starts for example, is unprecedented in the context of prior to negotiations.”

“It’s also the fact that for forty years, Presidents of both parties have questioned the legitimacy of settlements, but I think that where we are right now is to try to get into the negotiations. The Prime Minister will be able to present his government’s proposal about what they are doing regarding settlements which I think when fully explained will be seen as being not only unprecedented in response to many of the concerns that have been expressed,” Clinton went on to say.

Honestly, as much as I respect Sect. Clinton, I really don’t know how she could deliver that one with a straight face.

The Israeli press will love it, as they also love Hillary; Arabs not liking the language at all and with good reason.

Remember this?

“(Pres. Obama) wants to see a stop to settlements — not some settlements, not outposts, not ‘natural growth’ exceptions.” – Sect. Hillary Clinton

Or this from her boss?

“Settlements have to be stopped in order for us to move forward… That’s a difficult issue. I recognize that, but it’s an important one and it has to be addressed.” – Pres. Obama

That was so last summer.

Now it’s official. Obama’s Israeli public relations offensive has begun. Since Obama took office the Israeli press has battered him into low single digits. The Cairo speech made them feel as if Obama was taking sides, ignoring our special U.S. relationship and not giving Israel enough attention.

No wonder we can’t get this solved. It’s like watching petulant children vie for attention.

Obama’s latest shift reminds me of what happened when Greg Craig advised the Administration on Gitmo: draw a line in the sand that Obama couldn’t stay behind. This time, though the advice is from another corner of the Administration, it’s on an issue ten times more perilous; as Obama began by saying no new settlements, with Clinton repeating the statement with gusto, which has now morphed into Netanyahu’s “unprecedented” proposal on settlements, even as Clinton tries to also say all settlements are illegitimate out of the other side of her mouth. Let’s hope the Israeli press applauds, because the Obama administration should get something for this show.

I can hear the echo of what Gen. Jim Jones said during his speech at J Street; that negotiations would be “without preconditions,” which I questioned at the time.

It’s not where this began.

“Backpedaling” is being kind.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Fox News Responds with Rush

By on 01 November 2009

Pres. Obama went to war with Fox News, and what he got to show for it was the preview of what Rush’s new Fox News Channel show will look like.

… um… Rush is getting his own show, right? Otherwise he lost all that weight for nothing.

Rush went on and on, with Chris Wallace happy to allow it. Sam Stein has a rundown.

Limbaugh charged that Obama doesn’t care about Afghanistan, while simultaneously posturing that applies also to the U.S. military, as the P.T. Barnum of wingnut radio dug deep into the national security grab bag for one of the right’s favorites. Calling Pres. Obama’s trip to Dover AFB in the dead of night a “photo op.” Wonder if he said that when Reagan did it?

My fellow Americans:

In a few hours I’ll undertake one of the saddest journeys of my Presidency. I’ll be going to Andrews Air Force Base to meet one of our Air Force planes bringing home 16 Americans who died this week in the terrorist attack on the United States Embassy in Beirut.

I undertake this task in great sadness, but also with a tremendous sense of pride in those who sacrificed their lives in our country’s efforts to bring peace to the Middle East and spare others the agony of war. Greater love hath no man. The courage and the dedication of these men and women reflect the best tradition of our Foreign Service, our Armed Forces, and the other departments and agencies whose personnel serve our nation overseas, often in situations of great personal danger. ..

The backdrop to Rush’s ramblings is more bad news from Afghanistan, on a day when Abdullah Abdullah announced he won’t play the runoff game with Karzai, who clearly has stacked the deck.

Of course, there weren’t any questions about that, because Rush doesn’t do deep thinking. He’s a carnival barker.

Read full story · Comments are closed

Sarah Palin is Now the GOP Establishment

By on 01 November 2009
sarah-palin

It’s the second time this year that Sarah Palin going rogue has paid off. Her “death panels” squeal set Pres. Obama and the Democrats back on their heals, and when she came out to endorse Mr. Hoffman it seemed laughable to many. It doesn’t matter that Dick Armey was out there too, as he’s yesterday’s news. Mrs. Palin is not.

Among the stories of Dede Scozzafava’s bombshell election bailout comes one reporting that Newt Gingrich has tucked his tail in to endorse Mr. Hoffman, after first siding with Scozzafava, as did John Boehner and Michael Steele. Nobody cares; they’re too late.

Meanwhile, Frank Rich is analyzing this in terms of what can “bring this president down,” which isn’t the lesson of the strange Scozzafava tale playing out. It’s the story of 2010 and what this rabid right rev up means for turn out, when many on the left are becoming more and more disengaged, with jobs more of a worry in 2012, with next year all about the bailout/stimulus backlash, while sending Pres. Obama a message.

Anybody who thought an abortion rights, gay rights Republican candidate would be able to survive the current climate was deluding him- or herself, even if Scozzafava’s pre-election flame out was not foreseen. Her eventual loss, or maybe it should be bracketed as the eventual rise of the tea party class candidate, was inevitable. It’s been building for months.

It’s foreshadowing of what I’ve been talking about since this summer. The far right’s resurgence in a way we haven’t seen in a very long time. Whether it’s bailout blues, the financial kind, or the revving up of the right wing engine fueled by wingnut radio, egged on by Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, with a lot of help from Fox, this is a movement of emotion, the most powerful kind you can have in politics.

That’s the broader political analysis, with Howie Klein, someone who knows more about the nuts and bolts of districts and candidates, adding much more on the details. No progressive is better on this stuff than Howie.

Not surprising that as you read the articles about this Republican earthquake, few are focusing the kleig lights where they belong. Sarah Palin stood up and out and boldly backed Hoffman long before it was clear it was a very good idea. Tim Pawlenty was there, but Sarah was first among people who matter. (Mr. tea party organizer, Dick Armey, does not).

What does it mean?

Expect more of it from the far right, with moderate Republicans further on the outs than ever. But that’s not what should worry Democrats.

Looking at 2010 it means that our opponents will be emotionally engaged, attached to outcome, and inspired to support more tea party activist types at all costs. They aren’t calculating who can win as much as they are the type of person they want in office who they’re willing to back to make a statement, even if the person loses.

The most committed wins. In off year elections that goes double. If the health care bill looks as bad as the CBO’s latest reviews are saying, with premiums being higher, it’s going to add even more fodder, because people on the left will disengage. Add wingnut radio, which is the best GOTV engine in American politics, and you’ve got a political adrenaline pumped right into the voting disgruntled. Because conservatives won’t just be voting against all things Obama; they will be voting for tea party candidates that talk their language, no matter how alien it is to independents and others looking to register their complaints next year.

Amidst it all, Sarah Palin stands tallest, even as she’s still impossible to take seriously. But she understands the pulse of the pissed off on her side, which is good for her. Looking at her credibility to lead among independents and other voters, which remains non-existent, that’s good news for us, at least for 2012, because the same people who picked Hoffman run the GOP presidential primary system and there is no evidence whatsoever that they can win nationally.

But for 2010 none of this offers comfort; though in politics the winds can shift quickly, especially if a better health care bill than what’s being touted comes out of the Democratic majority. But the signs aren’t good right now.

Though I do agree with Frank Rich when looking at the runoff in Afghanistan. If Abdullah does indeed bow out, which we’ll know very soon, it will be portend potentially disastrous developments for us all.

Read full story · Comments are closed