It’s the second time this year that Sarah Palin going rogue has paid off. Her “death panels” squeal set Pres. Obama and the Democrats back on their heals, and when she came out to endorse Mr. Hoffman it seemed laughable to many. It doesn’t matter that Dick Armey was out there too, as he’s yesterday’s news. Mrs. Palin is not.
Among the stories of Dede Scozzafava’s bombshell election bailout comes one reporting that Newt Gingrich has tucked his tail in to endorse Mr. Hoffman, after first siding with Scozzafava, as did John Boehner and Michael Steele. Nobody cares; they’re too late.
Meanwhile, Frank Rich is analyzing this in terms of what can “bring this president down,” which isn’t the lesson of the strange Scozzafava tale playing out. It’s the story of 2010 and what this rabid right rev up means for turn out, when many on the left are becoming more and more disengaged, with jobs more of a worry in 2012, with next year all about the bailout/stimulus backlash, while sending Pres. Obama a message.
Anybody who thought an abortion rights, gay rights Republican candidate would be able to survive the current climate was deluding him- or herself, even if Scozzafava’s pre-election flame out was not foreseen. Her eventual loss, or maybe it should be bracketed as the eventual rise of the tea party class candidate, was inevitable. It’s been building for months.
It’s foreshadowing of what I’ve been talking about since this summer. The far right’s resurgence in a way we haven’t seen in a very long time. Whether it’s bailout blues, the financial kind, or the revving up of the right wing engine fueled by wingnut radio, egged on by Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, with a lot of help from Fox, this is a movement of emotion, the most powerful kind you can have in politics.
That’s the broader political analysis, with Howie Klein, someone who knows more about the nuts and bolts of districts and candidates, adding much more on the details. No progressive is better on this stuff than Howie.
Not surprising that as you read the articles about this Republican earthquake, few are focusing the kleig lights where they belong. Sarah Palin stood up and out and boldly backed Hoffman long before it was clear it was a very good idea. Tim Pawlenty was there, but Sarah was first among people who matter. (Mr. tea party organizer, Dick Armey, does not).
What does it mean?
Expect more of it from the far right, with moderate Republicans further on the outs than ever. But that’s not what should worry Democrats.
Looking at 2010 it means that our opponents will be emotionally engaged, attached to outcome, and inspired to support more tea party activist types at all costs. They aren’t calculating who can win as much as they are the type of person they want in office who they’re willing to back to make a statement, even if the person loses.
The most committed wins. In off year elections that goes double. If the health care bill looks as bad as the CBO’s latest reviews are saying, with premiums being higher, it’s going to add even more fodder, because people on the left will disengage. Add wingnut radio, which is the best GOTV engine in American politics, and you’ve got a political adrenaline pumped right into the voting disgruntled. Because conservatives won’t just be voting against all things Obama; they will be voting for tea party candidates that talk their language, no matter how alien it is to independents and others looking to register their complaints next year.
Amidst it all, Sarah Palin stands tallest, even as she’s still impossible to take seriously. But she understands the pulse of the pissed off on her side, which is good for her. Looking at her credibility to lead among independents and other voters, which remains non-existent, that’s good news for us, at least for 2012, because the same people who picked Hoffman run the GOP presidential primary system and there is no evidence whatsoever that they can win nationally.
But for 2010 none of this offers comfort; though in politics the winds can shift quickly, especially if a better health care bill than what’s being touted comes out of the Democratic majority. But the signs aren’t good right now.
Though I do agree with Frank Rich when looking at the runoff in Afghanistan. If Abdullah does indeed bow out, which we’ll know very soon, it will be portend potentially disastrous developments for us all.
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