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Obama’s Numbers, Afghanistan and Other End-of-Year Realities

If you want to understand Obama’s problems, the latest polling is representative. So is this:

“Labor is looking to make the bill better,” American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten said after the meeting. … …Another labor official warned that while labor leaders will very likely grudgingly support the legislation, some may be bitter enough to sit out the midterm elections, dealing a blow to Democrats.

That Mr. Axelrod is joining Gibbs in spewing “insane” nonsense illustrates the White House’s desperation as the year ends. Not exactly where they began, now is it. That’s how badly they’ve screwed up this year.

Segue to Afghanistan…

obama_nobel

On Afghanistan, where most Democrats disagree, especially Obama’s base, the public is behind the President, according to the latest polling. Of course, I support Obama’s plans for nation building, though no one in the Administration dares be that honest about what we’re doing. That said, I’m against the troop increase, which no expert I’ve talked to thinks will matter. I’m also truly puzzled why Pres. Obama and Sect. Clinton continue to emphasize, if secondarily, democracy in places like Afghanistan. It’s a fool’s errand. In fact, Clinton got some flak last week on her human rights Georgetown speech, as she trumpeted Pres. Obama’s strong commitment to human rights, particularly in Afghanistan, one of the main reasons why we fight. Some saying she didn’t stress democracy enough. Using the word democracy and Afghanistan in any context is ludicrous.

Dr. Zbig on “Morning Joe” this week explained perfectly a possible way through and it isn’t Sen. Levin’s idea of a national militia. After hearing Levin at the Rand event in the famous and beautiful Caucus Room, I agreed with him up to a point, but hit a wall every time I envisioned anything in Afghanistan on a national level. It’s nonsense, as they have never operated that way, so our efforts won’t change that embedded history. Zbig explained that we must not only pay the local Afghans more than the Taliban, to keep them from uniting, but also to protect their own territory, but encourage Afghan militias to stand up for their local jurisdictions. It was the Soviet Union who began the dismantling of organic Afghan society, with the vacuum left after they withdrew, helped along by Ronald Wilson Reagan (and Bill Casey’s war), causing mass chaos and an opportunity for Al Qaeda to grow. But Bush-Cheney’s warlord strategy made matters worse, destroying the tribe fabric further. By empowering local Afghans to police their own territory, while giving them the means to do so, aka money, with our troops as backup, we might find a way through this. Though as Obama said on “60 Minutes,” we are there for the long haul, something I’ve known for a very long time (see podcast for full story). It gets down to what we’re doing and trying to accomplish. But democratizing Afghanistan? It’s laughable. Where democracies already exist, we can support, but our military engagement must be left for clear and present danger situations in strategic regions that impact us directly, though extraordinary humanitarian crises should also draw our attention and action, but not knee jerk “send in the troops” mentality, only if international involvement is also present. Deluding ourselves about democratizing Afghanistan is 20th century thinking that leads to a dark abyss. See George W. Bush and Iraq.

Back to Obama’s poll numbers as the year ends. From the Wall Street Journal:

The biggest worry for Democrats is that the findings could set the stage for gains by Republican candidates in next year’s elections. Support from independents for the president and his party continues to dwindle. In addition, voters intending to back Republicans expressed far more interest in the 2010 races than those planning to vote for Democrats, illustrating how disappointment on the left over attempts by party leaders to compromise on health care and other issues is damping enthusiasm among core party voters.

But public displeasure with Democrats wasn’t translating directly into warmth for Republicans. [...]

…And in one arena, Afghanistan, Mr. Obama appeared to have some success in winning support for his planned troop surge. Liberals remain largely opposed to the strategy, but in fewer numbers compared with before Mr. Obama made his case in a speech at West Point. Overall, by 44% to 41%, a plurality believe his strategy is the right approach.

Still, the survey paints a decidedly gloomy picture for Democrats, who appear to be bearing the brunt of public unease as unemployment has risen from 7.6% to 10% since Mr. Obama took office. Just 35% of voters said they felt positively about the Democratic Party, a 14-point slide since February. Ten percent felt “very positive.”

I’m just wondering how you stand on Obama and the Democrats, thinking beyond the health care debacle. Or can you even separate that right now?

The American people are well beyond the health care debate, pushing it off of their table entirely, as Democrats have taken way too long, revealed way too much of the sausage making, if you will, while voters are struggling to make Christmas merry with less.

With Bernanke now getting a nod, including as Time magazine’s man of the year, it once again illuminates the one thing Democrats have been missing all year in the combustible dynamic. How people feel about the economy and j-o-b-s. It’s a major reason Obama’s in a rush over health care all of a sudden. But after a year of neglecting the subject, the election year push may be too late, as is this. It also happens to be the one opening for Republicans, with Mitt Romney gnashing his teeth to jump in.

About Taylor Marsh

Veteran political analyst and author of "The Hillary Effect - Politics, Sexism and the Destiny of Loss," now available in print at Amazon.com, and 1 of 4 books chosen by Barnes and Noble to launch their "NOOK First" Featured Authors Selection program. Former Miss Missouri, Broadway dancer, & relationship consultant at LA Weekly, produced & wrote one woman show "Weeping for JFK."

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22 Responses to Obama’s Numbers, Afghanistan and Other End-of-Year Realities

  1. Lake Lady 17 December 2009 at 2:19 pm #

    I hate it that this is true for me but I have lost all confidence in the Obama administration to be effective at much. It seems that the big money interests come first no matter the subject. They seem clueless on the subject of jobs. For a man who bragged about being about to walk and chew gum, I have heard no good ideas on job creation and fear tax cuts will be their answer. He needs to badly to clean house and build another economic team and I don’t see any moves in that direction.

  2. www.democratz.org 17 December 2009 at 3:37 pm #

    You have the power.

    Demand congress fix the prescription drug benefit

    go here http://bit.ly/drug_benefit

    Send a message to traitor Joe Lieberman demanding he help enact a strong single payer public option into law.

    http://bit.ly/traitorjoe

    Send this message wide and far. Thank you.

  3. texan4hillary 17 December 2009 at 4:54 pm #

    sen nelson a no. dean said reconcilation. now valentine’s day looks to be a new deadline says cohn
    http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-treatment/ben-nelson-still-big-problem

  4. Lake Lady 17 December 2009 at 5:12 pm #

    Tweety is becoming a real hack for the WH. Yesterday he tried to discredit Dean. Today he postulated that Obama’s numbers are sinking because he is LEADING! Right now he is allowing Axelrod to disemble after saying he had done homwwork today on the bill.

  5. kris 17 December 2009 at 5:16 pm #

    This is way off topic but I don’t give a damn.

    The esteemed Nancy Pelosi is heading to Copenhagen with a 21 MEMBER DELEGATION using TWO AIR FORCE JETS to get to the climate change summit. That piece of nonsense and chaos that has turned into an embarassment.

    I am pissed as hell. I am fed up with the Congress, the President and who the hell knows who else. When are we going to say enough.

    Pelosi and the rest need to go and go now.

  6. djjl 17 December 2009 at 5:33 pm #

    Lake Lady

    tweety would be a real hack for the WH – he was a real hack for Obama before he even got to WH – ya know – thrill up his leg and all.

  7. nzanh 17 December 2009 at 5:55 pm #

    I would have been very pleased to be wrong about Mr. Obama but to date, I think I was correct in my estimation of him as a candidate and then as President. And that is he is proving to be weak and ineffective. He is showing his inexperience in a way that is really quite embarrassing. He has clear majorities in both houses of Congress. He had the wind at his back when he came into office and he came in with a lot of good will and he’s not been able to make headway in any substantial way on ANYTHING.

    Despite having elected Barack Obama last year, Americans are basically conservative in their positions. I believe that most Americans thought that Obama would govern from the center. They really didn’t think he would prove to be the ultra-liberal leftwing ideologue that he is indeed proving to be. Independents are fleeing Obama in droves.

    As Bill Clinton knew very well, it’s about the economy. If Obama and his economic team had instituted substantial TAX CUTS, personal and corporate, I believe he would have been in a much better position. This is not a Republican idea. John Kennedy proposed these very tax cuts in 1962. His proposed tax cuts was passed 3 months after his death in 1963 and was responsible for reinvigorating the economy then. Tax cuts are a very direct way to put money in peoples pockets and allow business to invest and create jobs. Personally, I would have welcomed having more money in my pockets to be able to loosen my own purse strings. But at this point, I really don’t have much disposable income to inject into the economy. I suspect a lot of citizens are in the same position.

    At the same time Obama has got to get serious about reigning in spending–he’s spending us into oblivion. Most Americans can’t look to anyone for a bailout when they have mismanaged their finances. It’s gotten to the point that the Chinese are preaching to us about fiscal responsibility! He is bankrupting our county.

    I think our blogmistress can see the writing on the wall. There will be substantial Democratic losses in 2010 and that will be mainly because of Obama and Congress’s insistence on seeing Obama’s job destroying legislative program through. And I think barring a miracle, Obama himself will suffer the same defeat in 2012 that Carter did in 1980.

  8. kris 17 December 2009 at 6:02 pm #

    OT Again, but CNN keeps talking about a coup happening in Pakistan. Has anyone else heard rumors of this?

  9. www.democratz.org 17 December 2009 at 6:09 pm #

    I just called these 2 organizations.

    Omaha Steaks 800 228 2778

    Nebraska Beef Council 800-421-5326

    and told a person in both organizations, one a beef seller and the other an organization that promotes Nebraska beef that

    I communicate with thousands of people on the net and that

    UNLESS their CEOs get Senator Ben Nelson to get all Anti abortion language out of the health care bill they can forget me doing business with them and also forget about me buying Nebraska bred beef at the Supermarket which I will make sure that the local Supermarket does not sell.

    Now it appears your turn to call them.

    Thank you.

    http://www.democratz.org

    and spread the word please.

    Demand congress fix the prescription drug benefit

    go here http://bit.ly/drug_benefit

    Send a message to traitor Joe Lieberman demanding he help enact a strong single payer public option into law.

    http://bit.ly/traitorjoe

    Send this message wide and far. Thank you.

  10. nzanh 17 December 2009 at 7:19 pm #

    kris says:
    17 December 2009 at 5:16 pm

    This is way off topic but I don’t give a damn.

    The esteemed Nancy Pelosi is heading to Copenhagen with a 21 MEMBER DELEGATION using TWO AIR FORCE JETS to get to the climate change summit. That piece of nonsense and chaos that has turned into an embarassment.

    These people have no shame. They are so cut off from the people they purport to represent and feel so self entitled that they really don’t care. This is a rogue congress. They do exactly as they please–to hell with their constituents! They almost dare us to vote them out. We have one of the most corrupt congresses in American history. I will remember this insolence and do whatever it takes to defeat these parasites.

  11. Imhotep 17 December 2009 at 7:24 pm #

    Obama is NOT in Afghanistan to “nation build.” He is there to ‘Afghanistanization’ (like Vietnamization) the place. Those are two very different things. It was NOT “the Soviet Union who began the dismantling of organic Afghan society.” Afghanistan had a King from 1926 until 1973. His name was Mohammed Zahir Shah. He had very close ties to the Soviet Union and they pretty much left him alone to run his country. In 1973 his cousin Mohammed Daoud overthrew him with the backing of the CIA. Daoud was overthrown by pro-Marxist elements in 1978 led by Babrak Karmal. Karmal feared that a civil war (backed by the CIA) was about to break out so he INVITED the Soviets in to calm the situation. The Soviets were resisted by pro-Islamic forces from every ethnic backround (all backed by the CIA and later Texas Rep. Wilson. They used the “godless communist” fear tactic to rally the troops.) Reading history in the correct way indicates that it was the USA (CIA) which “began the dismantling of organic Afghan society” and not the Soviet Union. Propaganda will rot your mind and cause you to go to war unnecessarily. But the facts will set you free. Peace

  12. djjl 17 December 2009 at 7:25 pm #

    just curious…. should any delegation go to Copenhagen from the US……if so how many would be an appropriate number………….based on the number what would be the most reasonable transportation……….keeping in mind whatever the transportation it must be reflective of the law.

  13. Imhotep 17 December 2009 at 7:39 pm #

    It was the USA through its CIA who “began the dismantling of organic Afghan society” and NOT the Soviet Union. See my comment above. Peace

  14. Lake Lady 17 December 2009 at 8:14 pm #

    nzanh…I need to respectfully disagree with you. Obama is as about as far from a left wing ideologue as a Democratic President can be. He hasn’t accomplished anything because he has not stood for Democratic ideals he has stood for corporations and he has not spent the time framing anything well. I also disagree that the country is bacially conservative that is corporate propaganda. The right has done a very good job of demonizing all things liberal and they have screwed with the truth of things so well, and recieved so much cover from the MSM, that the counry is basically misinformed as to what liberalism really means. If a poll were taken on Democratic values without them being identified as such I think a large number in the country would agree with them.

  15. djjl 17 December 2009 at 9:05 pm #

    Lake Lady

    I agree.

  16. nzanh 17 December 2009 at 10:12 pm #

    Lake Lady, according to a gallup poll done earlier this year, most Americans self-identify as conservative. Of course, whether or not these people are “true” conservatives can be debated. But I would suspect that most of these self identified conservatives would not support Barack Obama and/or his agenda.

    http://tinyurl.com/lpm3bc

    You are very right that Obama has not framed his issues and agenda well. He is so busy trying to rush things through and cramming his agenda down our throats, that I would suspect that there is no time to adequately frame the issues.

    My main point at any rate that Obama has been feckless in his leadership. The American people were so tired of Dubya that they were willing to give the Obama upstart a chance, inexperienced as he was. But as Obama shows his hand, folks are realizing that his brand of governance is not what they signed up for. The thrill is gone. The bloom is off the rose and I believe Americans will not hesitate to rectify what is increasingly seen as a mistake.

  17. PissedOffAmerican 17 December 2009 at 11:35 pm #

    So lets see, you’re at LAX, waiting for flight to Miami. You strike up a conversation with a coupla Marines, in uniform, headed for Afghanistan.

    Your comment goes something like this……

    “Gee, fellas, I really appreciate what you’re doing. I’m a strong advocate of our mission in Afghanistan. Personally, I consider Obama a poor leader, incompetent, unable to rally his party, dishonest, and an abject failure at fullfilling and adhering to the various platforms that he campaigned on.”

    “But I have every faith that he has your back, and will execute his duties as CIC with the utmost competence, honesty, and concern for your welfare.”

    “Good luck, guys. You’re gonna need it.”

  18. kris 18 December 2009 at 12:31 am #

    Geez djjl….you and I used to agree alot, but lately not so much and I’m not sure why.

    Do you really, really believe that Nancy Pelosi and entourage need to attend the chaos in Copenhagen? What the hell does she bring to anything? The SOS is there, the President is on his way….well maybe her way huh?

    Nance and 21 extras at taxpayer expense. I can’t believe you see the virtue in that.

  19. djjl 18 December 2009 at 9:48 am #

    kris
    I think we are both incredibly frustrated. ;-)

    But I was serious about the question. There are times I sense some of us are shin kick’in for the sake of shin kick’in. Everything Pelosi does is not wrong. Nor, imo, is it foolish to have 21 American Representatives there – having only Clinton and Obama there would be futile and an insult to the work at hand.

    BTW,
    Australian 114,
    British 71
    The Yukon 11
    Japan has asked 50 Japanese NGO representatives to work with the official governmental representatives

    Here’s a bit of info on the general dynamics involved:

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121220373

  20. djjl 18 December 2009 at 9:49 am #

    My guess is that all governmental representatives from around the world are attending at “tax payer” expense.

  21. PissedOffAmerican 18 December 2009 at 9:58 am #

    When Pelosi declared that the President did not need Congressional approval to attack Iran, she pretty much showed her true colors. When one scratches off the veneer, one finds very little difference between the two parties when it comes to making excuses for more war.

  22. Imhotep 18 December 2009 at 10:26 am #

    War means profits. After all this is a capitalist country. Send a guy or gal to war and make a profit. Suck the last health care dollar out of somebody’s pocket and then cut off life support. My house is bigger than your house and so’s my carbon footprint. And so it goes. Peace