The forum I attended earlier this afternoon at the New America Foundation was on “Engaging Israelis on the Road to Final Status,” with survey results released that turned conventional wisdom about Obama on its head. For months, including in all the events I’ve attended, the CW was that with the help of the Israeli press, Pres. Obama’s approval was down to 4%, which this new survey rebuts (full results here).
Israelis express a mixture of emotions and assessments toward President Obama. A majority of 52 percent believe that his election is good for addressing the world’s problems (including 63 percent of Israelis under 30 years of age), and more Israelis give him a favorable rating than an unfavorable rating (41 percent favorable / 37 percent unfavorable). In fact, Obama is better-liked than Israel’s current Defense and Foreign Ministers, and his unfavorable rating is only four points higher than the unfavorable rating for George W. Bush, who is routinely characterized as very popular among Israelis. But there are also a lot of doubts centered on whether the President understands the threats facing Israelis, with large numbers believing he is weak on terrorism (50 percent) and naïve (43 percent). Overall, 42 percent of Israelis believe Obama supports Israel, compared to 55 percent who do not. This is certainly not a high level of confidence for an American President, but it is much stronger than the abysmal and frequently (but incorrectly) reported 4 percent approval rating that has driven conventional wisdom on Obama’s support in Israel.1
This came as Michael Oren, Israel’s U.S. Ambassador, continues his public relations offensive, as in, Oren is being truly offensive. Oren’s Wall Street Journal op-ed yesterday, which Daniel Levy cited today in an hilarious moment of sport directed at Oren for his fantastical yarn making skills (my words, not Daniel’s), in trying to concoct a storyline where Netanyahu is seen bravely and heroically going out on a limb politically by stopping settlement building.
By taking risks and accomplishing the unprecedented, Mr. Netanyahu has demonstrated his commitment to peace. – Michael Oren
…as visions of sugar plums danced through his head.
Oren conveniently forgetting this Netanyahu nugget: “This [freeze] order is one-time only and it limits the duration of the suspension. There are nine months and three weeks left. Once the suspension has expired, we will continue to build. I want to make it clear.”
But Oren doubles down by going after J Street, saying they are “a unique problem.” MJ Rosenberg’s response is priceless, so read it.
Daniel Levy on anyone believing the Netanyahu-Oren dance, with the following what I recorded via Twitter: “As long as people are willing to sit thru a farce & call it a peace process nothing changes”.
But Levy’s genuine surprise at why PM Netanyahu didn’t go on a charm offensive is important. To quote Levy, “the Israelis love Clinton,” so Netanyahu had nothing to lose, because Pres. Obama could in no way one up him.
Brian Katulis delivered several glib moments and direct jabs on Afghanistan, especially where we will get the money to pay for it, which was a strong point he delivered on final status as well. If we draw the line on what we can produce perhaps we might make something happen. However, it’s when Katulis said he was “less certain about our impact in Pakistan” that I felt I had found a brother. Coming to the conclusion quite some time ago that Pakistan was the real tinderbox, I never have been able to convince myself of what type of impact we can actually coerce, manipulate, buy, that will have any lasting affect. Katulis’s remark filled me with foreboding.
The NAF poll on Israeli feelings is very important, as few things are as pressing as trying to break the frozen status of talks on the Middle East. As Shibley Telhami said, “…very, very concerned about where we are… If (peace) doesn’t happen we’re going to have more trouble than we can imagine.”
Mr. Telhami also noted that we should expect a decision from the Obama administration on Iran in the next weeks, as a policy has yet to be set there either. Health care has taken all the oxygen out of the room, but it can’t for much longer.
~~~~~~~~~
Live Twitter Report from NAF on New Israel Poll on Road to Final Status
12:19:22 PM: Panel w Brian Katulis, Daniel Levy, Shibley Telhani, moderator Amjad Atahalla
12:24:14 PM: Shibley Telhami: Arab world approves of Obama, but he’s not @ top of world leader list, “not a love affair.” #israel
12:29:47 PM: “Very, very concerned about where we are…if it(peace) doesn’t happen we’re going to have more trouble than we can imagine”-Telhami #israel
12:34:29 PM: Daniel Levy: 4% approval for Obama needs to be “put to bed & buried,” as NAF’s new poll shows O @ 41% approve/37% unapprv #israel
12:37:21 PM: Levy surprised Netanyahu didn’t go on charm offensive, bcuz O can’t talk over his head. See Clinton, whom Israelis loved #israel
12:42:33 PM: In new poll 37% Israelis thing O a Muslim; “Israelis don’t feel urgency”; Telhami: Arabs don’t think he’s Muslim #israel
12:47:35 PM: Levy says it’s “all about incentive-disincentive structure”, which US needs new policy; “settlement freeze not a policy, esp a non-freeze”
12:49:38 PM: @briankatulis “as you define strategy there isn’t one” in the Middle East; “tactical thinking” primarily #israel
12:52:15 PM: Katulis: Don’t need the latest reiteration of the Clinton parameters; “cost of completion” needed #israel
12:58:34 PM: Katulis made point of citing Afghan cost, as well as pending bankruptcy in a side joke. Room laughed as Afghan cost hovers over all
1:05:06 PM: Telhami: “There will be an Iran decision (plan) in next few weeks.” #israel #iran
1:07:25 PM: Katulis: “All politics is now global.” More strategic, active ME PR campaign needed
1:12:49 PM: Levy: “Thomas Friedman is apparently unconscous” when he says ‘disengage,’ not getting ramifications of this. #israel
1:16:03 PM: Telhami seconds Levy’s points on the Jerusalem issue, which is ratcheting up on all levels #israel
1:37:41 PM: Levy: “As long as people are willing to sit thru a farce & call it a peace process nothing changes”; slams Oren’s WSJ column re settlmnts
1:40:29 PM: Katulis added he was “less certain about our impact in Pakistan.” Something that has bothered me, regardless of imp of our focus there.
This post has been augmented from the pure live Twitter reporting from earlier today.
Comments are closed.