The pictures and scene out of Iran today continue to inspire, as Iranians fight for justice by commemorating an historic day, when the Shah of Iran killed three students amidst the beginning Islamist revolution that changed Iran and our relationship with that country since.
This plays out in a backdrop that David Ignatius wrote about yesterday, which depicted war games on the Iran – Israel issue.
How will the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program evolve during the next year? If a simulation game played at Harvard last week is any guide, the situation won’t look pretty: Iran will be closer to having the bomb, and America will fail to obtain tough U.N. sanctions; diplomatic relations with Russia, China and Europe will be strained; and Israel will be threatening unilateral military action. [...]
… [...] Gold said the game clarified for him a worrying difference of opinion between U.S. and Israeli leaders: “The U.S. is moving away from preventing a nuclear Iran to containing a nuclear Iran — with deterrence based on the Cold War experience. That became clear in the simulation. Israel, in contrast, still believes a nuclear Iran must be prevented.”
This is the dividing line in a nutshell. Anyone who has followed the region and the issue has come to the same conclusion, which has become the fault line in Middle East policy, as well as the difference between Democratic and Republican strategies over Iran. With most Democrats having a realistic viewpoint, while Republicans continue to stand on the 20th century line that Netanyahu continues to push. There are few issues more inflammatory on the fault line of U.S. foreign policy than the issue of Israel.
Laura Rozen has an extended section on the recent Harvard wargames from Gary Sick, someone who knows Iran.
4. Just as we largely ignored the ineffective pressure tactics originating from the US, our own words and vulnerabilities were equally ignored by most of the other players. Why did no one go back to the Iranian offer of a negotiating agenda presented in 2003? Or the more recent catalogue of issues introduced as part of the Geneva/Vienna meetings? The reason seems to be the all-consuming obsession with the nuclear issue and the apparent belief that Iran’s words, in whatever form, are irrelevant. The nuclear issue is indeed important, but AfPak, Iraq, Hezbollah, Persian Gulf stability, etc. are also not to be dismissed out of hand. And Iran over the years has offered some interesting suggestions that have never been explored. Why not use the meetings with Iran to create some working groups to explore the possibility of progress on issues other than the nuclear one? By broadening our scope, we might actually improve the environment for constructive work on the nuclear issue.
Meanwhile today, from the New York Times:
Videos posted to Youtube, Twitter, and opposition Web sites showed students gathering in large crowds in Tehran and the northeastern city of Mashad. Police had gathered around universities and in public squares to head off the protests, and by early afternoon there were widespread reports of tear gas, beatings and arrests.
The government-run IRNA news agency and Press TV confirmed there were clashes.
The protests came on National Student Day, an official holiday in which the government commemorates the 1953 killings of three students by the shah of Iran, who was overthrown 30 years ago by Islamist revolutionaries. Antigovernment activists had signaled they would take advantage of the day to protest despite repeated warnings by the authorities.
More from ABC’s Jim Sciutto via Twitter:
Sec. forces using all the familiar tactics from June: police on motorbikes, blocking cellphones, arrests…
SMS and cellphones down in many parts of Iran, crackdown on today’s student protests…
Tehran10: Reportt 30 buses have brought Sec. Forces to Tehran from other provinces…
Let’s see if the Obama administration says anything publicly or releases a statement commemorating National Student Day in Iran, whether from the White House or State. The politics is loaded, but what the protesters are doing in Iran deserves U.S. acknowledgment, if not wholehearted support.
The political perils of the Iran nuclear situation for Obama remain dense and choking, especially given the infrastructure of the right in this country. Practical reality never mattering much to that crew. It all revolves around one question: Will people be able to set aside old thinking for what is our reality today, or will they blame Obama for the inevitable of Iran becoming a nuclear nation? While negative political ads play in Republicans consultants’ heads.
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