Nate Silver weighs in, also the provider of the graph here.
Democrats should be asking themselves how they let this happen, because it’s turned into a run away train. Just take a look at Memeorandum this morning. With the right energized and moving into Massachusetts because they smell political blue blood.
At stake is health care, which is part of what is driving the Scott Brown upsurge, not to mention some Democrats who are disgruntled. But in a National Journal new media poll, Obama’s also getting poor grades on the economy, from the left and right. Average voters feel this even more intensely, including in Massachusetts.
Helping Scott Brown’s troops, the Boston Herald puts Brown ahead.
But all of this is just noise to fill the interminable waiting now.
Massachusetts has elected many Republicans statewide. The Kennedys, contrary to popular belief, have never had strong coattails, as Lawrence O’Donnell reminded people on “Countdown” last night. But this is Kennedy’s seat, which has been in the Democratic family for decades. The other thing to remember is that Hillary Clinton beat the Kennedy machine, with Kerry’s endorsement of Obama meaning little, back during the primaries.
But the big thing, win or lose, is that the Massachusetts race, as I said earlier this week (thanks Marc Ambinder for taking note of it), gives real power to what Tea Partiers are trying to build. An anti-Obama, anti-Democratic movement that they can push over the finish line this year. Because people don’t like to vote for far flung losers, but with Tea Partiers mounting serious challenges that come closer and closer to big upsets, there is evidence the Tea Party tipping point is near. If the moment comes in Massachusetts, all 2010 bets are off.
Why top officials in both parties tell us Tuesday’s special election in Massachusetts could produce one of the biggest upsets in political history, with Republican Scott Brown on a track to beat Democrat Martha Coakley for Senator Kennedy’s seat, shattering the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority: Trajectory, momentum like this rarely turn around. Voter intensity is too low for the machine to work its magic. She has run a clumsy campaign, taking time off, neglecting retail politics, and holding a fund-raiser with D.C. lobbyists in the closing days of the campaign. (Who could have thought the optics of that would be bad?) Some top Dems remain irked that she did not wait longer after Senator Kennedy’s death (Aug. 25) to announce (Sept. 3). Women candidates have trouble in Massachusetts — Rep. Niki Tsongas, elected in 2007, was the first woman from Massachusetts elected to the U.S. Congress in 25 years. Some in the White House believe the race stabilized yesterday, in part because of an ad attacking Brown. Dems say Brown’s opposition to Obama’s bank fee is ‘a game-changer.’ And the GOP has limited turnout machinery in the Bay State. Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg both moved the race to ‘toss-up’ yesterday. – Mike Allen’s Playbook
Remember how everybody was so sure that Hillary was toast in New Hampshire? Scott Brown might have Joementum, but that doesn’t mean he’ll take down Marth Coakley.
It appears that Politico is pushing a minor meme to blame Coakley. I wonder if the Kennedy machine was slow on the uptake when she announced due to grief and not being ready to see someone else in that seat. I know there has been some reporting that some in the machine are miffed at the speediness of her announcement following his death.
Also isn’t MA under a insurance reform very similar to the one being proposed and finding their costs skyrocketing?
I would love to know what the WH is telling themselves about the demoralization of the base?
Hey Barak, I’ve got a deal for you. Ready to listen?
Revise the health care plan to include a robust public option. Use your vast rhetorical skills to sell it to the house and senate. Then announce in MA.
Having FINALLY won something of value this may motivate the base to turn out in droves for Coakley.
Or, keep things as they are with your centrist plan, and they stay home, she looses, and health care goes down the tubes.
You choose.
Supposedly he was at the table with the union people for hours yesterday and the night before…dosn’t sound like he is going to backtrack at all. He seems determined to finance healthcare on the backs of the middle class. Seems insane to me but much of this year has seemed insane to me.
Peggy Noonan: “There is a disconnect, a detachment, a distance between the president’s preoccupations and the concerns of the people.”http://tinyurl.com/ylpdvbg
I know, some won’t listen to the wingers, but you should. You often say the same things, believe it or not.
rahm is “weighing the benefits” of a last minute obama visit for coakley. good lord! hmm wouldnt it be pretty bad in so many ways to lose te kennedy’s OWN seat? btw viki is up with a great pushback ad against brown this am-
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/15/AR2010011500544_2.html
lady lake- the wh wants the sen bill and has from day one. labor got the excise modified etc and according to fdl rep courtney and some others arent behind the compromise yet either.
taylor-
right about the kennedy’s not having the machine in ma anymore. its a myth. if dems lose the seat what ramifications do u think it has for the dem party re fallout? do u think obama is wise to not do last minute stops in ma?
Jeralyn Merritt at TalkLEFT:
“I hope if you live in Massachussetts, you don’t vote for Martha Coakley.”
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2010/1/14/11647/2670
(1) In “Another Reason Martha Coakley Should Not Be Senator,” Merritt writes:
I’ve never thought Martha Coakley would make a good U.S.Senator. I’m even more convinced now that she has signed her name to a brief restricting death penalty appeals, while claiming to be against the death penalty. … Read the details.
[...]
Martha Coakley hasn’t changed a bit since she prosecuted nanny Louise Woodward. Or was involved in the Fells Acre case. She’s no Ted Kennedy, that’s for sure. I wouldn’t vote for her for dogcatcher.
(2) In “Martha Coakley’s Bait and Switch on Abortion, Merritt writes:
Can’t say I didn’t warn you about Martha Coakley. The latest: a Bait and switch. During her campaign to replace Sen. Ted Kennedy, she said she wouldn’t support a bill with restrictions on abortion.
Today, she announced her support for the health care bill with its restrictions on abortion funding.
…
[...]
Martha Coakley is not someone we need in the U.S. Senate. She certainly is no Ted Kennedy. (More here.)In my opinion, she’s as unprincipled now as she was during the prosecution of nanny Louise Woodward.
(3) In the January 14th post, “Martha Coakley: Too Big a Risk for Senator,” Merritt — rather passionately — writes:
At Politico, Radley Balko summarizes Martha Coakley’s prosecutorial over-reaching during her career and the threat she poses to those who care about criminal justice reform.
As a member of the Senate, not only would Coakley be creating new federal criminal laws; given her record as a prosecutor, there’s a good chance she’d serve on committees with oversight over the Justice Department and the judiciary. She’d also be casting votes to confirm or deny federal judicial appointments. Advocates for criminal justice reform should be wary. Coakley may share Kennedy’s opposition to the death penalty, but her record as a prosecutor leaves plenty of doubt about her commitment to justice.
I hope if you live in Massachussetts, you don’t vote for Martha Coakley.
t4h
I doubt Obama will go to Ma – he avoided everywhere pretty much, be thought he might lose so’s to be able to say imo – hey I didn’t even campaign there. He won’t want to take any responsibility that he could figure in to a possible loss.
Don Bacon
I really can’t stand Peggy Noonan – wince at the sound of her voice. But she is right on this:
“Don Bacon says:
15 January 2010 at 10:05 am
Peggy Noonan: “There is a disconnect, a detachment, a distance between the president’s preoccupations and the concerns of the people.”
Lake Lady says:
15 January 2010 at 9:53 am
Oh, he’s not going to backtrack. He never backtracks where his base is concerned. They are the first to be thrown under the bus.
Another observation I’d like to make is this: These Unions leaders. I was so thrilled when Trunka was chosen as head of the AFL-CIO. No need to repeat all the things he promised and all the threats he made about those who did and did not support workers. So it was surprising to me that on his first big test when he had to stand up for his workers, he too caved.
The conservatives hold on to their convictions no matter the issue as if they are biblical, and they never move, while the left are ever so easily swayed supposedly for some ephemeral larger good.
And finally, has anyone noticed that MSNBC (Keith & Rachel) has toned down their criticism of Obama and health care reform?
Peggy Noonan: “There is a disconnect, a detachment, a distance between the president’s preoccupations and the concerns of the people.”
Amen, thanks Don, for posting that. Noonan’s often wrong, but in this case, she’s just nailed it.
Democrats don’t get it. There is a fury out there in the country. People are fed up with this HealthCare Reform effort, which they supported initially in broad terms, but are dismayed and disgusted by the complete perversion of any “reform” as just another giveaway to corporations who rob the people blind. First it was the Banks, then it was Automakers, now it’s Insurance and Big Pharma.
The people are fed up. Democrats in some districts are trying to warn Obama about that, but he’s not listening at all. He’s the disconnect here. His arrogance on this is clear in a response to worried Dem pols:
“But I also know what happens once we get this done, once we sign this … bill into law: The American people will suddenly learn that this bill does things they like and doesn’t do things people have been trying to say it does. The worst fears will prove groundless.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31530.html#ixzz0cgmCmwSd
That is Obama saying he knows better than the American people, by the way. Not pretty.
But fully 75% of the American people don’t support the “mandate” from the federal government to buy insurance under penalty of fine. So, Obama is ignoring the American people; not to mention the Senate Dems scuttling the amendment to have an expedited Judicial ruling on its constitutionality.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=2E33DCAF-18FE-70B2-A8609CF474274010
So basically, Scott Brown is turning into the voice of the disaffected and disgruntled, and dismayed Americans all over the country, who want him to put a stop to this administration.
You want to see what’s happening out there? Here’s what’s happening:
America Rising
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0bh77k2Wdk
Coakley is not very well liked in Massachusetts. She’s run only one state wide race in which she didn’t do all that well. Her campaign has been run as though she was the default candidate, being the Democrat, and as long as she didn’t “screw” up by saying something stupid, which she often does, she would back into a win. On a few days around the 5th, 6th and 7th she didn’t even schedule any campaign events. When asked why she replied “Well, what would you have me do stand outside of Fenway Park and shake people’s hands?” Joe Kennedy, the Independent candidate, is the Teaparty’s guy. Coakley refused to debate Brown unless Kennedy was included. She figured that Kennedy would take enough votes away from Brown so that she could use that as her cushion. Except that Kennedy was polling at 3% before the deabate and he’s polling at 3% today, so that tactic failed. In short Coakley is a disaster as a political candidate and she’ll be a disaster as a US Senator if she’s elected. Unfortunately, if Brown is elected he’ll be an even worse diaster. It sure is good to live in a democracy that has a representative form of government. Peace Peace
How sad that someone as worhty as Martha Coakley might be the victim of dissatisfaction/rage against President Obama and the democrats.
This has become a national race and it’s about the Obama agenda not Martha Coakley.
hark they finally have got it- go after brown over his lack of support for obama’s bank tax. i agree dems must bludgeon this in ma- i blunts the bank rage-
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0110/A_defining_difference.html
No, c chicago, it IS about Coakley and her lack of work ethic on the campaign trail. It has nothing at all to do with Obama. Coakley has been a poor legislator and has said some of the dumbest things imaginable over a long period of time. She’s a machine politician whose machine has finally run out of gas. Peace
i will tell u this- im doing all i can for martha here in tx. i have friends in ma and- they are women who were big hillary supporters in the primary there. they tell me what the pollsters and pundits are not seeing like they did when hillary was running was how passionate dem women are for their candidates. coakley won the primary there bc of the hillary women in ma who are very loyal to her bc coakley was a vocal clinton backer and bc coakley would break the glass ceiling in ma becomming the 1st woman sen from there. i think msm etc are underestimating the women’s vote in ma. it wouldnt be the 1st time the power of women would be unederestimated now would it?
c chicago- i agree with u- coakley is a very worthy candidate. this si the only atty gen in america who has taken doma to court to get it thrown out. martha has taken the big morgage firms to court over their subprime practices. while obama’s admin defended doma in court martha was challenging it. that means something to many. i do think coakley, like most dems in ma, got caught way off gaurd by the right wing populist rage.
And Obama’s bowing and scraping to big money while throwing Main Street under his big, bad bus.
Noogan says:
15 January 2010 at 10:11 am
Jeralyn has been *very* consistent about Coakley, to her credit, whether you agree with the analysis or not.
To add something, Coakley said in an interview with Chris Matthews that she thought Hyde should be rewritten to reflect current law. She’s swung wide from that point, not wanting to touch what she’d previously said in the interview I did with her. One of the reasons I became interested in her was her courage to say what she did on “Hardball” re: Hyde. So, the reviews about her shape-shifting have merit, even if you are in the She’s Better Than Brown camp, who will vote to kill health care.
Worth noting that if Coakley goes down, many Dems may back away from the health care bill, because as written by the Senate, it’s not worth dying for.
You know noogan I am just not a Jerylyn fan. I read her during the primary and campaign and I really don’t think she has great judgement.Just my HO.
I hope Coakley pulls it off and then learns from it. She had absolutely no choice but to say she would support the HC bill.She needs the WH and the DNC for goodness sake!!
This whole thing is making me think I better get cracking for Carnahan in my state.I am so pissed at the Dems I can hardly make myself do it. But if both she and Coakley win that is two more women who have been on the right side of my issues for their whole careers. Numbers matter.
coakley is on ma radio on brown’s support fo the conscience clause for med workers. armstrong on mydd is saying some bitter folks from the ma primary who backed capuano are cuasing problems for coakley’s camp. im glad to see some of the defamatory sexist garbage on coakley fb page has been removed. folks were posting “go run for pta lady” and “iron my shirt please.” ma has neevr elected a woman to senate. i wonder if sexism is notpart of what is going on here. if coakley wins it will be bc of those hillary women in ma.
Taylor Marsh:
“Worth noting that if Coakley goes down, many Dems may back away from the health care bill, because as written by the Senate, it’s not worth dying for.”
I think you are exactly correct. And IMHO, this would all be Obama’s fault. Why do I blame him? Because I think he should have encouraged Reid to finish it in August as he initially promised, instead of allowing naively pursuing bipartisanship and allowing Baucus and Grassley and Enzy to make fools of him. We know what happened next.
Ramsgate
I agree with you – it doesn’t matter who anyone things really is to blame – the blame will be at Obama’s feet and he wil, imo, deserve it. What masterfully feckless leadership he has shown.
The central failure here is talking about “Ted Kennedy’s Seat.” It is one of the U.S. Senate Seats from the great state of Massachusetts. Nobody, no political dynasty, no political party “owns” this seat. In sporting events one of the worst things you can do is look past your present opponent.
Both locally and national the Donkeys put the Massachusetts campaign on cruise control. Worse, they left the drivers seat and climbed into the back seat for a nap. Is it any wonder the car is headed straight for a ditch?
It appears that the same dynamics are happening in this race as did in NJ and VA. Three things to mentioned from the exit polling in both states: Obviously the swing of Independents, but also the participation of the youth vote, which dropped dramatically and the view that the majority of voters in NJ and VA believed that the Democrats ran the negative campaigns. If these hold true, Brown probably will win by 3-5 points.
As much as we need more women in the Senate, I have to be for anything that might derail the godAWFUL “health” care bill. That means I’m pulling for Brown.
And no, I don’t care about any other considerations.
TaosJohn
Are you under the impression that Brown will work for an imporved healt care bill or will he be happy to have NO health care bill?
Hmmm…Here is what I think is going on in Mass right now 1) Backlash against Obama, 2)Martha Coakley is not a good candidate, 3)The people want a change from a Dem seat.
Look the Dems had a 60 seat majority and still could not run the senate. All the infighting on cable by the party has paid off, plus, this unpopular war does not help Dems…One thing is clear they want Obama agenda stopped and looks like they will achieve it…Personally, I don’t care if Brown wins the seat…No big loss to me since I’m not a Dem and at this point feel both parties crappy…Win or Lose this is a sign Obama maybe experience the first major signs of a serious backlash.
One other thing…Should not Dem Progressives be cheering about the mostly likely loss of Health Care, once they lose Teddy old seat? Because if I remember right didn’t Certain Dems want the insurance loving Health Care Bill passed….So what is the problem?!!! You guys will get what you want…cheers
Where on earth did you get the preposterous notion that any real Democrats didn’t want real health care reform?
Coakley just shouldn’t lose to this neanterthal pretty boy:
Scott Brown on familiar themes, including his “lock-step” Republican votes.
The script:
It’s almost unimaginable but it’s true. The Boston Globe confirms Republican Scott Brown sponsored legislation to allow hospitals to deny emergency contraception to rape victims. Brown will vote to let insurance companies keep denying care because of pre-existing conditions and denying millions of seniors prescription coverage. One thing Scott Brown can’t deny is that he is in lock step with Washington Republicans and out of step with Massachusetts.
And to think that Reid, Pelosi and company thought that Hillary would be a danger to the democratic majority!
Wonder what they will think of Obama should Brown take MA next week?
This mess would almost be funny if the consequences of a Brown victory weren’t so severe.
Maybe Hillary will decide to run in 2016 and maybe Harry Reid will have learned by then that she won’t be so toxic. Of course, in 2016 it won’t matter what Harry Reid thinks since he will have been booted out of the US senate long before then.
Looks like it is Obama to the rescue in MA… Hope this is not another Copenhagen (Olympics) moment..
MSNBC: Obama to campaign for Coakley in MA on Sunday.
“If Scott Brown wins, it’ll kill the health bill,” Democrat Barney Frank, D-Mass., said, underscoring the stakes of Tuesday’s special election.
Not a particularly good way to get the progressive vote out. This is not a health care bill, it is an insurance bill. I don’t think it’s worth passing. I hope the House sticks to it’s guns and say “our way or the highway” and then lets the cards fall where they may.
In a vaguely related issue:
The Connecticut Democrat (Dodd), who announced this month that he wouldn’t run for re-election this year, has discussed the possibility of abandoning the push for a new agency during negotiations with key Senate Republicans as a way to secure a bipartisan deal on the legislation, these people said.
Bipartisanship should be shelved. Dems have to pass bills that their constituency supports…there is no benefit to getting one or two GOPers on board. Just passing SOMETHING is not going to work come election time.
Agreed JoeBeets!
JoeBeets ….You state something similar I said earlier about the chance to kill this bill being a blessing for “Certain Progressives” who felt the bill was just a insurance bill give way… With liberal blogs protesting the bill and screaming kill it, kill it…Well, here is there chance through Mr. Brown…lol
Now, they are starting to cry and moan about how could Obama and the Dems possibly lose Teddy seat and thus, cost us Health Care… My goodness make up your mine liberals do you support Obama Health care bill or not…If you do vote Dem in Mass…But if you want to completely destroy the Health Care bill vote Brown…Simple as that…Side note watching the Dems chase there tail in public like a crazed puppy is the big reason I became a Indie…
whitepaw….For Obama to go to Mass means the Dems are in deep trouble…lamo Yes, all hope our President is not made a fool of again like what happen Copenhagen. But he did end up getting the gold…though not Olympic gold… peace prize gold
Marie205: I can’t say I hope Brown gets elected, but a slap in the face is what is needed. Plus, it would negate the whole 60th vote problem the Dems have. If the Dem leadership KNOWS he can’t get 60 votes, maybe they will either change the rules or use procedural methods to pass bills with a simple majority. Bills that actually help their constituency.
I am a registered Democrat just so I can vote in the primaries…I am certainly an Independent voter myself.
JoeBeets….What your saying and feeling is most likely going in Mass with the voters…I think some voters might be using Teddy seat as a slap in the face to Dems too…The Dems seem to have written off their lossesin Virginia and New Jersey as some sort of fluke…But they can’t this time if Teddy seat is lost. I even hear noise that Obama will lose his old senate seat might to a Republican.
Folks, 2010 midterm elections might after end of being a blood bath the simple minded Dems. You Win Some, You Lose Some!!! That’s life and bad politics for you.
I have so many typos in my statement above…lol Time for me get off the web and watch my TV shows…bye
JoeBeets says:
15 January 2010 at 2:58 pm
“I am a registered Democrat just so I can vote in the primaries”.
That’s about exactly where I am nowadays.
Also, we really should stop talking about “60 votes” as its meaningless. In Democratic hands, or in Harry Reid’s hands, its more of an affliction than an instrument for good.
Marie205: I hear you loud and clear. But, no progressive WANTS TO SEE a Republican elected. What I think we hope to see is an event (could be a loss in MA) that will cause this President to understand and take stock of the unremitting damage that he has done to his once devoted base, which in turn has imperiled his Presidency and his ability to lead and govern in the future. Hopefully this will force him to fire certain members of his staff and to drastically change the way he is presently operating.
Personally, I do not believe there is a snowball’s chance in hell of this happening.