Updating up front (4:00 pm), the remark from Robert Gibbs on the public option is one for the books:
“We have seen obviously that though there are some that are supportive of this, there isn’t enough political support in a majority to get this through,” Gibbs responded. “The president… took the Senate bill as the base and looks forward to discussing consensus ideas on Thursday.” – Sam Stein, Huffington Post
So, if you’re doing the calculation on why the American public is walking away from both political parties you’ve got it. The Republicans are ignoring the support the Medicare buy-in public option has because of their own political egos; while the Democrats are so weak in Democratic priorities, including the people our party has put into office, that not even with a majority in Congress and the presidency can they get through an idea supported by the American public.
It’s no wonder Sen. Jay Rockefeller is a “no” on health care reconciliation. It’s his Harry Truman moment, where he’s telling Dems the truth and many are feeling a blast of hell. But after perusing Pres. Obama’s health care proposal from yesterday, I’d say anyone who signs on to that monstrosity mistake deserves to get his head handed to him by the voters.
What part of the current climate doesn’t the White House understand?
A signature campaign for a public option that the President supports but won’t fight for is hardly inspiring. That’s because since he didn’t put it in his health care bill HE DOESN’T REALLY SUPPORT IT. Sorry to scream, but honestly, Ezra Klein is being obtuse.
That traditional media outlets are saying Rockefeller’s blunt talk is a “very bad sign for the public option” proves how worthless this tribe is at analysis. This whole resurrection tap dance has been pure politics from the start, because Mr. Obama has no intention of fighting for the public option, which means it’s been dead for over a year now.
The White House bill is as bad as any of the proposals to come out of the Democratic Party’s long, twisted, inept, never ending, costly, too long, ineffectual health care efforts since Obama became president. That it won’t help Democrats in November is a side issue, because it doesn’t look like anything will.
Get a load of this chart and this analysis, which is now making the rounds after it was posted this past Sunday.
With current polling in conjunction with Bafumi et al.’s paper predicting a Republican national vote between 53.6% and 54.7%, the Republicans could easily gain 50-60 seats from their current 178. Gains of greater than 60 seats also look quite possible. Even in the best case scenario for the Democrats, it would seem that holding the House would be very, very difficult. It looks like a red blizzard is going to sweep through Washington in November. – Republican Blizzard on the Generic Ballot
The potential for an epic political slaughter in November is very real, according to most analysts who are experts at watching polls, those who have followed electoral history, and from people who have experience in polls via outcomes, including newcomers like “Harry Joe,” who is quoted above. It’s particularly real since the talking points on November this far out continue to get grimmer by the day. The whole notion of a self-realizing prophecy taking hold, especially when you have a Democratic base that really doesn’t give a crap if Democrats are elected or not, because they haven’t done anything worthwhile that people can feel for over a year, so who cares?
Whether you believe the “epic” prognostications or not, which I’m not signing on to one way or the other, those not still mesmerized by the Obama Choir echoes can agree that whatever political carnage is wrought in November the Democrats in Congress, Speaker Pelosi and Pres. Obama have earned.
This post has been updated, with the title changed from “Buh-Bye Speaker Pelosi.”
The Rockefeller link is bad. One hopes that the Congress has reached as Bob Dylan once said “When you ain’t got nothing, you got nothing to lose,” stage and they will begin to do something positive for us common folk. It better be soon because I’m turning quite blue from holding my breath. Peace
The link works for me.
That would be correct, Imhotep, if Obama had shown that he gets it in his health care plan. He didn’t, so it isn’t. There is no evidence that Obama thinks there is anything wrong that will impact *him* at all.
Are you getting the feeling that Obama couldn’t care less about who gets voted out of office in November? “It’s time for a change in Washington.” I’m begining to believe that the entire game is now being played on a completely different level. Maybe it’s just me and my conspiratorial insights. Peace
There is little doubt in my mind that Obama and his White House team believe that he’ll benefit from a Republican Congress going forward into the 2012 election cycle. He can, at the very least, recapture his bipartisan mantle, perhaps.
Yes, but I think that it’s more than just keeping his reelection in sight. It feels much more “revolutionary” than that. Peace
I’m not thinking about his re-election, just his bipartisanship record right now.
As for “revolutionary,” well, that doesn’t exactly comport with Obama for me, so on that you’ve lost me.
I agree with you, Taylor. All the health “reform” bills suck. Obama is every bit as “moderate” as I feared. And the Dems are hopeless. What a mess!
I’ve been thinking for a while that Obama was going to sacrifice the House and Senate to set himself up for a run in 2012. In a certain sense that’s the game Clinton played after he got elected the first time.
The thing Obama & Co. doesn’t yet understand is this time we have seen that game before and we are better informed about what has and is happening. Clinton was never really seen as ignoring/attacking his base like Obama has (we can argue that one I know but he never alienated them like Obama has) so they gathered around Clinton once the shit hit the fan and he came back. If Nov turns into the disaster indicate by the graph above then I don’t expect a repeat of the Clinton years. Sure some folks will come home but its gonna be awfully lonely in 2012. My only question is who will primary Obama. If shit happens in Nov then expect that conversation to start in Jan of 2011.
The sad thing is that the Speaker has done her job. She got health care passed. She passed cap and trade. The Senate has fucked up everything, not the House.
Of course the problem in the Clinton years was that by handing the Republicans a majority, he got to live through things like the impeachment. If the Republicans get a majority in either house of congress, they will crank up all sorts of investigations of Obama, make life miserable for him in a way he doesn’t seem to imagine. The idea would be to generate misinformation and publicity for 2012. Given the way the Administration has handled things so far, I would give that Republican strategy an excellent chance of success.
In addition Democrats, and the Village act as if the Democrats lost in 2008. If the Republicans retake even one house of Congress, the narrative from that day forward will run as if the restoration were already underway.
Buh-Bye Speaker Pelosi? It would be a dream come true. I’ve heard Gallup and Rasmussen predict otherwise recently but I hope they are wrong.
Why would Obama supporters think that the president would cherish and honor those ideas and principles they hold dear? After all, even friends and family have seen the underside of the Obama and Co. bus. Public option isn’t and has never been sacred where Obama is concerned–SURPRISE SURPRISE SURPRISE! Public option is an inconvenience right now so…it too takes its place under that bus. Good Luck and God Bless.
All indications do seem to suggest that Mr. O would indeed not be particularly unhappy with a Republican congress. How sad. I thought it was Democratic voters that put him where he is.
With little support from Mr. O, Speaker Pelosi appears to have done her best. Neither president nor Senate have done much to help. To the contrary.
Democratic voters, and Independent voters supported him. Will they continue that support? I would doubt.
I was delighted to hear that passing health Insurance, access,readmission, infection and error reduction, cost control and delivery REFORM, etc. is not urgent and not sorely needed. I am happy to know it is not necessary because 145 people are not dying everyday anymore for lack of access to timely care. I am overjoyed that Hospital delivered infections have been greatly reduced or altogether eliminated. In addition medical error is at a standstill. There is no need for Tort reform anymore. Malpractice is very rare. And that those 36,000,000+ that have no Insurance, and have to wait till disease becomes and emergency; it’s great they can still go to the ER on our nickel. That is the very least we could do. it is also great that readmission has been greatly reduced.
Is it not wonderful that Health Care expenses are stable and decreasing while quality of outcome is rising quickly? Wow, a simple NO has done it all. Brilliant. Unbelievable. Our work is done.
TM NOTE: Please see update at the top of post, along with changed headline, due to Gibbs’ statement on public option. Thanks.
Mad Kane says:
23 February 2010 at 2:15 pm
They’ve made the *worst* possible mess out of the biggest opportunity in recent memory.
Pilgrim says:
23 February 2010 at 3:41 pm
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What a convoluted way to get things done. On Obama’s 2008 election, the stars had never been so nicely aligned. But instead of presenting a modest series of legislative packages and appealing for both Democratic AND Republican support, the president throws his support behind a massive piece of legislation that was bound to go down in flames. I do believe Rahm Emmanual did counsel Obama to go the piecemeal route. And Obama refused this advise. But now since the going got tough and he’s got very little to show for in his year in office, he figures that it would be better to have Republican majorities in Congress? If this is the case then yes, it is sad that Obama is actually ready to throw his own Democratic congress under the bus as well.
A Republican majority sounds exactly like the sort of gift Obama prays for. It would take him off the hook with his own base and set the scene for him doing exactly nothing about a host of topics. I honestly think Obama has accomplished all he wanted to accomplish with his life- being elected the first black President, his place in history is assured regardless of the outcome.
Sorry. I neglected to give credit where credit is due. My VA 7th District Representative, with his brilliant effort in unifying 178 Republicans to oppose everything, is responsible for this “NO” miracle. It is over. It is done. Time to move on to more important legislation to block.
WE have had enough reform. We can just wait another couple of years.
What is the big rush anyway? Why don’t we really start over? Lets go back to the 19th Century were Conservative ideas made some sense. Not much. Just some. Conservative ideology is anachronistic.
Losing Jay “jello” Rockefeller? What a joke. The fact that he pushed for anything, particularly the public option was just a trick on harry Reid. Like Jello Jay was ever gonna grow a spine.
its been patently obvious since this summer that the President had no intention of pushing for a public option, hell, he’s trying to pass a bill. with Senator’s like jello Jay, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad, Max Baucus, Blanche Lincoln, Mary Laandreiu, he doesn’t have many options.And that’s 7 of the 58 people.And don’t get me started on Joe Lieberman. There’s no guarantee that he can get reconciliation even for the bill he proposes You can argue that it was a mistake to try and bring Republicans on board, and that its still a mistake, but I believe that the President’s actions of late are putting pressure on the GOP. If they want to double down on obstructionism this year, that’s their choice, and maybe it will work out for them, but I don’t particularly think that there’s a lot of enthusiasm for the Republican brand right now, I do believe that the media loves them a good narrative, and “Democrats prove to be total losers” is one their all time faves.
Frankly, the best thing that could happen would be for Democrats to have much smaller majorities. The 60 vote threshold put unrealistic pressure on the Dems to go it alone, and it gave the GOP the opportunity to sit it out. They don’t have compromise because their votes aren’t theoretically needed. plus the have the added advantage of being able to point out how ineffective Democrats are.
And finally, things are extraordinarily bad out there, but the idea that this President wants a Republican congress is an outrageously stupid thing to say. He’s had alot of bumps in the road this past 13 months, but he remains more popular than anybody else, or either party.
“He’s had alot of bumps in the road this past 13 months, but he remains more popular than anybody else, or either party.” There is one person in the administration who’s even more popular and holds MUCH higher poll numbers than Mr.Obama- SOS Clinton.
Congress is Circle Jerk de’ Soule. Mostly.
You know, GaBuck, the popularity state to state for Obama right now is problematic for Democrats. The issue is Obama doesn’t seem to much care.
Point to Iceblinkjm.
heh-heh… No kidding, WVMJ. They’re too busy trying to keep their jobs (raising money, kissing lobbyist ass) to do their jobs, which should include standing up to a president who doesn’t know how to lead.
Iceblinkjm says:
23 February 2010 at 4:16 pm
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I had to laugh at this one. For most of us, showing up and being black has never been enough. I for one have always expected to PERFORM as well. I’ve never received a dispensation on that count. I am certainly no Obama partisan but even I give him more credit than that. I truly believe Obama came in wanting to do everything he promised, but the truth of inexperience, amateurism and ego finally manifested and broke the spell.
Maybe he ought to pull a Palin” and turn it all over to Joe ?
WVMJ- I’d settle for a real and democratic primary in 2012.
“Standing up to a President who doesn’t know how to lead”
Who Taylor? Jello Jay? What a ridiculous statement. You mean Joe lieberman? Or how about Joe Wilson.
How are state to State popularity polls problematic for Obama? Who is the Republican that can beat him right now?
Ya’ll tell me who the 50 Senators are that support a Public option. Ya’ll tell me what kind of arm twisting is necessary to round up that 60th vote. You seem to know what needs to be done
Gabuck~ Ever heard of the Electorial College? I know Taylor is talking about maintaining Dem majorities but maintaining his popularity on the coast is not going to be enough. I think if Romney could get past a Repub primary he could beat Obama in a general.Remember all the independents and repubs who voted for him? I would not count on them next time around and the base has no where near the enthusiasm.
I would love to know what all the backstabbers in the Senate are thinking now and Pelosi who used all of her power to turn things for Obama.
Consider this if you will:
If President Obama were the CEO of a Multinational Manufacturing, Research and Development, and Retail Distribution Network, with excellent product support, maintenance and repair. And a Century of Business. With some pretty cool products from time to time.
And he was just hired to reverse the losses they have suffered over decades, and turn the company around. His board of directors is in derision and cannot come up with even a general course of action to save the Company. Nearly half of his upper management is clueless. And those that have genuinely good and productive ideas are shouted down at every meeting. Middle management is generally cooperative, but 178 of the best managers you could have are frightened and in revolt. Besides all those challenges, his competition is distorting the quality of his products and demeaning him personally and his ability to do his job. A good bit of that comes from inside the corporate structure as well. He would have to persuade his employees, that we all can succeed, and the company can grow again, with some cooperation, some compromise, and the best efforts of everyone.
And then he might charge all of them to go ahead and do their best, for their own benefit. With that success is assured. Oh, I almost forgot he is the CEO pluperfect of General Motors. He has more than one plate.
Hail to the Chief.
Where did all the I N D I A N S go?
GaBuck says:
23 February 2010 at 4:46 pm
Mr Rockefeller is not a favorite of mine on national security matters, especially where Sen. Roberts is concerned.
On the public option, including in committee, he’s been a very good advocate.
But then again, who’s the leader of the Democratic Party; securing votes from the American people to implement CHANGE? Last time I looked, GABuck, it wasn’t Rockefeller.
the popularity state to state for Obama right now is problematic for Democrats. The issue is Obama doesn’t seem to much care.
It’s problematic for Dems running in 2010, which I think the statement above makes clear; including that it’s not something Obama is going to love sleep over.
Reconciliation doesn’t need 60 votes; it needs 51, though there are procedural hurdles getting there that do require 60.
That we’re even in this predicament, still talking about health care, but now on the defensive after over one full year of Obama’s presidency should be all the evidence that you need that he can’t lead. I wish it weren’t so believe me.
Additionally, I don’t think Rep. have a candidate that can beat Obama right now, which isn’t the topic. However, that doesn’t prove Obama can lead.
Like I’ve said before, the bad news is that Obama is a bad leader. The good news is that Rep. are worse.
Bad Congress! Bad! When the Left circles around and meets the Right, in this case Ron Paul, both Party’s had better duck. Peace
I am beginning to think that other than a tin ear and stubborn reliance on putting through misguided “landmark legislation” for his legacy, that Obama is really not very smart.
His behavior about HCR and his remarks about Republicans are one kind of stupidity. But his open praise of Reagan and constant courting of Republican bi-partisanship when it was never possible are a fantasy he’s acting out in public and it’s kinda repulsive.
Obama is fundraising endlessly as is the rest of the congress, but to even suggest he seems capable of being President is foolish.
After over one full year, what Obama & Dems are about to do is nuts, morris1030, just nuts.