Big primary day in the 2010 election season, with all sorts of things happening. Under the radar the 2012 season also begins, as does a battle likely to come in the Senate Democratic leadership fight, with feelings that Sen. Harry Reid may be heading for a loss. Amidst this we get a one-issue marketing magazine all about Sarah Palin. You might wonder why? Driving everything is something I mentioned yesterday, which David Sanger analyzes fully today, though no one should bet on 10-year forecasts, while voters may simply focus on the obvious.
Or, as Mr. Obama’s chief economic adviser, Lawrence H. Summers, used to ask before he entered government a year ago, “How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?”
Consider this ruminations on the current state of political play.
All you have to do is look at the Rubio race in Florida, with Charlie Crist now falling behind. The right is no longer an organized mass, with different factions vying for relevancy. Crist’s connection to Obama driving voters away, with Rubio’s “conservatism” the reaction to what people are feeling.
Off year election seasons are always about energizing the base. But this year emotion politics is the beginning and the end. Few candidates stressing their party affiliations at all, these associations simply a conduit for getting in. But depending on the state, tapping into constituency emotions is bigger than party. Whereas emotions used to come through the national identity, partly because of money, now something else is happening, with national parties struggling as people become more independent, splintering forces.
Take what the Virginia legislature just did. The Democratic-led Virginia legislature made it illegal to mandate health insurance, putting themselves as far away from Obama and the national Democrats as is feasibly possible. Mandating health insurance something I’ve railed about, including on TV, once it was clear there would be no competition in whatever health care bill Dems were proposing. Obama’s failure on health care manifesting through Virginia law. As a warning, let’s just say Obama’s fortunes for taking Virginia in 2012 have soured some what.
Take Harold Ford, Jr., the candidate of Wall Street in a state where that crew matters. He went on Colbert last night and laughed at himself, with “Morning Joe” host Joe Scarborough doing Ford a lot of good, the show’s involvement even forcing Gillibrand to make an appearance. Once an unknown, Ford has jumped in the polls, with one-quarter of the public undecided. Ford has also run against national Democrats, calling Gillibrand a party “parakeet,” which is bad these days, no matter what party is invoked.
But back to the “independent” Palin mag. This is further example that whatever Mitt Romney’s plans are for 2012, including a perfect economic set up, a wall is now rising against his presidential ambitions. Not a Palin wall as much as an emotion deficit, the opposite of Romney what Palin represents. Huckabee also has it, but will he survive a “Willy Horton” type attack on his security vulnerabilities? Too soon to tell. Romney’s a presidential catalogue candidate at a time when politics is getting messier and party lines smudging. Mitt has a lot of things, with the economy and deficit a set up for him, but he doesn’t have the emotion thing. This time around neither will Barack Obama unless he changes his game plan significantly, something we haven’t seen so far.
We’re heading into a time where politics is becoming more and more a jump ball, but that doesn’t mean you can get by without ideology, as Obama did blurring those lines in 2008. Pres. Obama is locked into an image that is associated with the king’s fortress at the shoreline. The rising tide against, not Obama personally whom people like but what he represents, is amassing into an emotional tsunami that threatens to wipe away his foundation. It doesn’t matter that Obama is trying to fix what went wrong, since he missed last year’s opening for a big stimulus when his approvals were sky high, instead unloading a whopping budget when his influence has waned and skeptics abound. All that people feel is that he’s part of the problem.
One thing about emotions, they’re not based in facts or details, but they can wipe you out all the same, especially when there’s a venting conduit in another direction. Emotion politics, which is always important, now overtaking party politics completely.
Beautifully written Taylor.
But how depressing. What all began so well. Obama could rightly pride himself on having a genuine mandate. There was no one to challenge it. The Republicans had been utterly routed. Their neoliberal philosophy, which was concisely summed up by the new president (“we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else”), was in tatters. And the Democrats had a large majority in both houses of Congress. Millions of young people threw themselves into the political struggle, reckoning that with Obama as president, nothing would be as it was before. But now he too is engaged in horse-trading, buying votes that he needs, courting and appeasing those we despise. He’s sleeping with the enemy.
Not for one second has this president resembled the radical adolescent described in his memoirs – the Obama who attended socialist lectures; who was shocked by the anti-communist coup in Indonesia in 1965; and who worked in Harlem for an association with links to Ralph Nader. The Obama whose mother was dunned by Insurance companies on her sick bed.
In the past I desperately sought the smallest evidence that some of these passions were still there, some compassion, some shred of conviction . . . Nothing.
Now I know that our days are numbered. This man will never change. He will never fight. He will continue on his course pursuing Republican love, as they pursue his jugular. Next November’s legislative elections, will take place in a gloomy economic climate, and will thin the Democratic ranks. At everything will be a hell of a lot worse.
I guess this is OT, so sorry for that, but I wanted to make one further comment about the budget introduced by the Admin.
The budget assumes 150 billion in savings from health care reform and revenue from cap and trade. Neither one of course exists. Unbelievable.
Emotion politics? Maybe because being lied to over and over again creates an emotional response. Or maybe, if you are a “liberal” Democrat and hear yourself referred to by Rahm as a “retard”, you have an emotional response.
I could go on but you all get the picture.
Mornin’ kris, and please feel free to “go on.” Thanks Ramsgate.
The Obama administration and the O choir underestimated the importance of the first term as president, overestimating the abundance of capital that he brought into office, while ignoring history that proves voters are an impatient bunch. The fact that Dems completely missed the amassing jobs panic indicative of an out of touch party that used to represent & champion the little guy. It’s the same set up Reagan had in 1980, though no one else has said so yet, mainly because the national security aspect that fueled Reagan is missing, because Obama’s *image*, another emotional value, has been such a help to the US image around the world, even as any hope of real progress is missing.
News on Blanche Lincoln -
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0210/Lincolns_woes.html#comments
That’s right. He had his chance, and he blew it. HE, more than most Presidents before him had an opportunity to change the world and he absolutely pissed it away.
When he grows up, he’ll see what he did. And what he lost.
I’ve been reading here and there that at least leaders abroad are growing dismayed and disappointed and I can’t see how him getting weaker at home can add any strength to his international leadership.
Let’s remember that 2012 is a long way off, with anything possible, including that Obama will prevail. After all, it’s not like Rep. are respected or trusted, with Obama a good campaigner even if he can’t lead. The wild card here is if a 3rd party candidate enters, someone like Michael Bloomberg, who now has Howard Wolfson on staff. Then all bets are off. BUT again, 2012 is a long way off.
From kris’ link:
And Boozman has a 66-20 lead with independents as well.
Lake Lady says:
02 February 2010 at 11:55 am
Absolutely correct, but no one is discounting that Obama has changed America’s image abroad from when Bush-Cheney reined. But compared to the promise of Obama? That’s where their “dismay and disappointment” enter.
Obama WAS a good campaigner. He has done nothing for other candidates. No coattails at all it appears. But neither has Bill Clinton come to think of it.
No doubt the world is delighted to have the cowboys out of power. With the possible exception of Osama and his followers.
I wouldn’t bet on the Osama thought LL.
kris~ I think an argument can be made that Obama’s political staff has really fallen down on the job. They send him in at the last minute when the die has been cast. One wonders if there is some intent involved? I mean have they paid any attention at all to his old Senate Seat? I guess during the primary is not the time but no support for Coakley and now big support for Nelson? What gives?
Well kris if part of their strategy is for the US to go broke in Afganistan they can’t be too disappointed.
Kindergarten hour LL. Can’t blame everything on the staff. Obama’s a big guy, he can make his own decisions and tell the rest of them to shove it. He’s the President and head of his party for gawd sake.
kris says:
02 February 2010 at 12:01 pm
That’s one thing that always infuriated movement progs. re: WJC. (They used it against Hillary in some places, including Nevada, through fliers.) Obama is the same as WJC in that regard, because neither are movement politicians, unlike Reagan.
It’s what sets up the “emotional” arena being ushered in. Tea Partiers, love ‘em or hate ‘em, are a movement of some sort right now, though it remains to be seen whether they’re just an idea, a label to mean upstart, renegade, independent fighter, as opposed to someone with a set of principles. Because as you drill down on people like Scott Brown, he’s pro women’s civil rights, and we don’t know if Tea Partiers are simply emotional on economics or if cultural issues will be part of it. If McDonnell & Scott Brown are the model they won’t be, at least not in 2010, though neither McD or Brown will claim Tea Partiers as influential in their rise, afraid that the wacko brand established earlier through the TP activists will stick, though as things settle down it remains to be seen if independents also claim the populist message of the TPers and if these people will represent something beyond the “birther” crowd that helped first rev them up.
Taylor’s post is on emotion. When I can identify mine I guess the description that comes closest is frustration but that does not really describe the power of it. I am furious. Unfortuantely for a liberal there seems no clear path in electorial terms.
Didn’t Scott Brown disavow the Tea Party recently? With barbara Walters.
Lake Lady says:
02 February 2010 at 12:11 pm
Ah, but you’re still tied to policy, which tethers you to the Democratic Party.
That era is ending.
If you don’t solve our problems, you’re part of our problem, is replacing it.
Democrats have for too long promised and under-delivered. If Obama doesn’t get something done by leading, instead of begging Congress to answer his problems, he’ll be the last political party straw on allegiance.
No clear path indeed LL.
I watched Bill O’Reilly last night. Guess who two of the guests were….Joe Klein and Gavin Newsome. GAVIN NEWSOME. Mr. Newsome believes he is becoming more moderate than he used to be. I never knew he was moderate at all, but evidently he has had an epiphany. Watch for more.
Lake Lady says:
02 February 2010 at 12:15 pm
Yes. Neither McDonnell nor Brown will claim them. Sarah Palin isn’t exactly claiming them, but she is respecting them.
Political collapse will do that for you, kris. But it’s not that Newsome was radical, it was that he appeared a charlatan, too slick, elite, etc. He needs more Jon Tester, less Nancy Pelosi.
But he’s damn good looking
Absolutely, and that’s a plus. But in a package that isn’t creepy slick.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32310.html
Intersting Poll …all things considered.
Koz has a poll coming out today in about 25 minutes. He says it got some crazy results.
This explains what Rahm has always said and why the WHouse isn’t worred about “the base”; call it the LakeLady phenomenon: In the end Democrats will always come home.
This is what is slipping right now, depending on how the question is asked. Because even affiliated Democrats are moving away from Dems, something that no one has yet polled or found a question to ask that represents the current emotional mood.
As to looking toward 2012, it’s too far out to predict.
My ties to the Democratic Party are weakening by the day. I won’t give them a dime. Can you imagine your money going to Ben Nelson! I won’t go to local meetings because I know I would get into a fight.I almost did during the primaries. I need to start working for Robin Carnahan because the Repub alternative is so repulsive but have not been able to motivate myself to do a thing.
My activist energy is going into stictly local things that are non political like the Farmer’s Market and raising funds to improve our park.
I believe Dr Dean and the DNC touted that Obama brought in all these new Democrats – no he didn’t. And we see how fickle all his new “democrats” were.
Mornin’ djjl.
Any time voters are attached to a personality – politician instead of policies it will be short-lived.
Democrats have yet to produce a Reagan, who had a core ideology that is also forgiven all sorts of practical policies predicated on necessity like immigration amnesty, raising taxes, etc.
We knew that all along djjl. I know if I went back to local meeting they would be trying to defend Obama and I could not tolerate that. This has always been a blue county but since Crystler closed it’s plant and moved all the equipment to Mexico,my guess is it is up for grabs now.
I for one won’t come home.
In the CA state races this year I am watching everyone, Repub. or Dem. closely. Hell I might not even vote as a protest.
BTW – Tea Party folks are challenging Congressman Wally Herger who represents my area, is Republican and is and always has been very conservative. Who would have guessed?
We produced one but the party in all it’s wisdom rejected her.
Amen to that LL.
Well, Obama is creating a ton of fear in me that he’s setting us up to be under the facists on the right. If the GOP takes over the house and senate in Nov he’s no Bill Clinton and won’t stand up to them i’m willing to bet. the ones here are already talking about cranking up the fundamentalist jihad again should they take over. If Obama won’t stand up to the fundamentalists on policy then why should anyone show up to vote in 2012 for him? I don’t see him turning it around despite the few bright spots here and there.
Wonder if the notion of the Dem’s losing “the One”‘s former Senate seat will get his attention? Probably doesn’t care -DINO.
Don’t forget the AAs,hispanics and young people many of whom don’t turn out for midterms.
Sam is waking from his Am nap..gotta go..BBL~
Can Palin Save the Country?
Oh, ferchrissakes.
More cult of personality politics?
I’m outta here.
I hope no one falls for this sort of BS again.
I know I’m old when I start longing for the “good old days” [they were never that good, I know!] when candidates had actually achieved something in their lives before they ran for President. Maybe it’s crossing that fault line of having a president whose younger than you are! I don’t know. But Sarah Palin can’t “save” anything. She’s just one political voice. We really need civics education in our lives again; everyone’s forgotten how our Republic works.
Good analysis, Taylor.
“Civics education” surely you jest. The corporateers who own this country aren’t likely to allow that – too expensive. Besides “can’t keep ‘em down on the farm after they’ve seen Paris” and all. Where’d the Feudal Lords be without the servile peasant class?
Yeah, djjl, it was a serious fantasy.
Salient quote from Sanger’s article regarding our fiscal disaster and how it impacts everything, from domestic initiatives to foreign policy:
“Stein’s law has been recited in many different versions. But all have a common theme: If a trend cannot continue, it will stop.”
Yeah. But sometimes it stops because it’s literally the end. Sometimes it stops because it runs into a wall. We’re on course to run into a fiscal wall; not this month, or even this year, but in a few years. Frankly, I’m not sure there’s not a damn thing Obama can really do about the course we’re on–unless of course he really wants to be a one-term President and can fight for some initiatives to cut spending [so that he really makes a positive impact on this country].
We have a Congress who has to provide for their constituents at home, or they’re out; so they won’t cut spending. As I understand it, the Defense Budget is chocked full of earmarks, because every Representative and Senator knows the bill passes, and that’s where they get their money for constituents at home [or themselves, if they want an airport].
So, we’ll just keep on spending until the “trend cannot continue” and it stops. We hit the wall of spending our entire GDP to rollover our debt.
Everyone is going to “feel the pain” at that point, whether they’re ready for it or not. We can’t sacrifice ANYTHING as it stands now. You can’t sacrifice social security, or medicare, because it would be inhumane for the elderly [and it would be!]. You can’t sacrifice defense because we have to provide for our national security. Can’t sacrifice infrastructure because we’re a nation of roads, bridges; they support commerce. Can’t sacrifice anywhere; until it stops. And, then, we all sacrifice everything. So, save your money, get out of debt, and pay attention to the economic trends [read the top economic bloggers]. Because it will impact your life. Seriously.
For example:
Did you know about the annuitization plan this administration has for your 401k? Oh, yeah. Treasury has a plan for your money; they want to take it. They want to take your money in exchange for a promise to provide you with an annuity of 2%–at some point in the future. This is happening because China is no longer buying enough of our debt and in order to prevent disclosure of the real state of our economy, Treasury has come up with a plan. Better read about it, so you can be prepared; you can send Treasury your thoughts about it:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-soliciting-your-feedback-regarding-proposed-annuitization-401k
This next link is to a great little blog which links to stories around the nation and the world by both blogs and mainstream news:
http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/
Here’s a list of good blogs, a non-partisan list everyone can use:
http://www.currencytrading.net/2007/the-top-100-economics-blogs/
Noogan -
I can’t tell you how much I appreciate your comments on the economy. You fill in where I dare not tread because I would go on and on.
You are right on the money as usual, no pun intended. I am doing exactly as you suggested, save money, no debt, etc.
Here’s hoping the dollar will be worth anything in the long run.
Thank you, Kris, glad to know I’m not the only “cassandra” around here on the economy.
Check it out!
This made me laugh out loud.
The Republicans May Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory in 2010!
They sure will if they listen to that dodo-head Frank Luntz! You just can’t make this stuff up. If they think DERAILING Financial Reform is their ticket to a majority, they’re dumber than they look. People aren’t going to be fooled by this, and all it does is play right into Democrats hands when they blame the GOP for being obstructionists, and for being corporatists. Well, take heart Democrats:
This will be their Waterloo:
“Nine months after he penned a memo laying out the arguments for health care legislation’s destruction, Republican message guru Frank Luntz has put together a playbook to help derail financial regulatory reform.
In a 17-page memo titled, “The Language of Financial Reform,” Luntz urged opponents of reform to frame the final product as filled with bank bailouts, lobbyist loopholes, and additional layers of complicated government bureaucracy.
“If there is one thing we can all agree on, it’s that the bad decisions and harmful policies by Washington bureaucrats that in many ways led to the economic crash must never be repeated,” Luntz wrote. “This is your critical advantage. Washington’s incompetence is the common ground on which you can build support.”
Read Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1925-The-Republicans-Learned-Nothing…..html
Krugman pushes back on conventional wisdom.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/fiscalizing-failure/
Has anyone even noticed that Canada is doing just fine?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/opinion/01krugman.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
I wish it was not so cold up there! I can’t think of one warm country with a stable government.
Come on up, Lake Lady, the weather’s fine.