As you’ve evidently seen her at work, interesting input.

Sarah *wishes* she was Ronald Reagan, that’s for sure. In communication skills she’s not even close.

Heya Scott, Pilgrim.

Lake Lady says:
10 February 2010 at 9:02 am

Everything is in flux right now. But there’s absolutely no tell on what will happen in 2012. That article an interesting read, with the obvious “Caveats abound, of course.” A good way to look at it is IF the election was held today. Obama would lose Virginia, with many voters who came out in 2008 deserting him by not voting or leaving the presidential slot blank; this includes Democrats, young people as well, but a boat load of working class too. I don’t know if Obama will ever get back my husband, someone who was *very* excited about his presidency when it began.

So what? The bottom line is, if Obama gets 40% of the white vote, he will win. Here is the flaw in the analysis from the Weekly Standard, which the author is candid enough to admit: It artificially claims three distinct Democratic candidates as generic proxies for Obama—and even uses a preelection poll sample in lieu of actual exit poll data. This can’t count for science, even on the Internet.

Now, it appears that Obama’s coattails are not nearly as long as he and others have supposed. But it’s hard to argue that the likes of Coakley and Deeds are adequate proxies for Obama. When Obama is on the ballot again, the voter demographics will look very different. Maybe the win won’t be as impressive. But it will still be a win.

That’s why Palin is important. Republicans are coming to a fork in the road. They can nominate someone who, while espousing conservative principles, presents him- or herself as a solutionist to independents. I can’t think of anyone for the top slot right now, but Paul Ryan would make a very intriguing Veep candidate. Even Democrats privately acknowledge that many of his ideas have substance and are not the typical Republican obstructionist fare. A ticket like that would pose serious problems for Obama, as it would attract the white independents that carried him to victory.

Or they can nominate Sarah Palin. Palin will generate a lot of enthusiasm among her base. But, equally, she will rally Obama’s base, even the disaffected Democrats we’re so worried about. And as the campaign rhetoric gets harsher and harsher, you can expect many white independents to likewise revolt and vote for Obama. The nativist, “I’m a real American, and you’re not” argument goes over like a lead balloon with that crew.

Right now, the smart Republicans know that, in Palin, have a tiger by the tail. Can’t win with her, can’t win without her. My heart hopes they run her. In which case, Obama wins going away. But my head tells me they’ll come to her senses, and not nominate her. That’ll make it tougher, and Obama will have to tack rightward — as WJC did — to bring disaffected white voters back. The table of voter demographics from the attached link tells the story: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992#Voter_demographics

To wit, Clinton’s share of the black vote in 1992 and 1996 was remarkably consistent: 83% and 84%. In neither election did he win a majority of the white vote: 39% and 43%. But he increased his numbers substantially in the following cohorts: Liberal Republicans (17% to 44%); moderate independents (43% to 50%); moderate Democrats (76% to 84%); and conservative Democrats (61% to 69%). WJC’s numbers increased among liberal Democrats as well, by only by 4 percentage points: 85% to 89%.

Moral: Obama wins by tacking right. Them’s just the facts.

Scott – I think you may be underestimating Ms. Palin, and I’m no fan of hers, but I always remember George W. Bush. I don’t underestimate her; she may not be intellectual or knowledgeable but she is politically savvy. And if people think of her only for comic relief that could be a mistake.

Scott Brown won because of the anti-health care and bailout backlash…Plus, Coakley was just ran a bad campaign. Christy was going to win no matter what Corzine was hated. Obama will lose his former seat too because the guy pick to keep is seen as corrupt.

oops! forgot to leave the link.

Edit

Not really he polls well with White women its White men he is losing. I bought this subject up once before about how Obama seems to be losing White men faster then other racial groups. Obama is connecting well to the minority middle class…its the White blue collar folks who don’t get him… The opposite is true for Palin these people love her and she speaks their language.

Look for Sarah to start reaching out to minorities around 2011…I can already picture her making a trip to Africa on some Christian mission.

But no, this woman is very shrewd. She reminds me of Reagan. Reagan was a person who didn’t have a command of the intricacies of policy, but Reagan was a man of his times. He was there when America needed a kindly avuncular type. He smiled, told stories, told us how great we were and how our best days await us. He had a common touch.

I’ve seen Sarah operate and she really is not a nuts and bolts person. But she has the same MO as Reagan. She articulates a policy and she hires good staff and then she stands back to let them make it happen. She has a common touch that people appreciate here and throughout the country. I call her a Republican with blue collar sensibilities. I think she is in touch with what drives the “common” man. And people seem to understand and respond to that. On top of that, it doesn’t hurt that she is very attractive, tall and leggy.

Like many people in this country, I had to come to a point where I had to grudgingly respect Sarah Palin’s political power and appeal. After that, I actually came to like her. I think she did a good job for our state while in office always with an eye with what was in the best interest of the people. So Taylor, you are very shrewd to understand the power and potential of this woman.

My husband is asking his boss to let him trans for to Japan around 2012…Only if the election goes in the Republicans favor that year…lol
Seriously, I’m not a Dem but Sarah Palin scares the crap out of me…I know of a couple Republican friends who can’t stand her…but their is many Republicans who support her just because they feel she can beat Obama…I keep asking them after she does help you guys win back the White House how will you control her…they never give a answer back…

You forgot turning America into a theocracy. My husband will be taking sabbatical around the time of the 2012 election and we’re already thinking about what “country” we want to go to.

It could all very well happen…scary

I suppose that is one way of looking at it, but maybe for a lot people it’s just plain STUPID. Let’s see a indecisive administration, some health care thing floating around somewhere in DC, unemployment, deficits, a general incoherent message by the administration, but some how they can manage to spend time to come up with a juvenile comeback.

I guess everyone has their own priorities.