–updated–

Of metaphors and moments swirling amidst international and domestic history, we find ourselves tied in knots.

As global leaders meet with Pres. Obama to discuss the weight matters of the world, while riding her bicycle in D.C., a 68-year old woman was killed when she was hit by a military vehicle, which was protecting motorcade traffic for Pres. Obama’s nuclear security summit (photo via Matthew Yglesias).

A bicyclist was stuck and killed by a military truck at the intersection of 12th Street and New York Avenue, just five blocks from the Nuclear Security Summit meetings Monday evening.

Sources say the woman who was killed lived in Northwest DC and she was 68-years-old. [...]

If that doesn’t say it all.

That the National Guard is ascertaining whether a 68-year old woman was at fault when they killed her is an embarrassing CYA situation that defies credibility and confidence.

Never mind that while Pres. Obama and world leaders jaw-bone nuclear security, the fanfare will not manifest any type of ratifying agreement, just “a political statement,” which isn’t worth much in the scheme of things.

And as much as I hailed Obama’s revitalization of nuclear zero, calling it Reaganesque, I just don’t see the same “nuclear wizardry and the Iran factor” as Steve Clemons outlines today in Politico. Take this one section, which dances Pres. Obama’s real PR strategy on the head of the we’ve not seen anything concrete manifest yet pin.

Obama is changing the direction of global gravity. He is also confronting Iran without the shallowness of bombing vs. sanctions vs. public humiliation that his administration has been flirting with. In the past week, and over the next month, Obama is showing what a U.S.-led world order should look like.

This is a huge shift, for the world hasn’t had much faith in America’s abilities to deliver. For example, in taking on strategic challenges like getting the Israelis and Palestinians on a two-state pathway; or ending the anachronistically simmering Cold War conflict in U.S.-Cuba relations; or persuading Iran to forgo a nuclear weapons track, most of the world has seen an America unable to achieve the objectives it sets out for itself.

There is no doubt that Obama has moved beyond the “shallowness of bombing vs. sanctions vs. public humiliation,” not of his Administration, but of the Bush-Cheney era. Pres. Obama is definitely showing leadership on the nuclear issue as well. But that’s where Steve’s exuberance falls apart. Pres. Obama is still in confrontation mode with Netanyahu of settlements, with a lot of coercing still to go, whether we’re talking the Middle East, Iran (including with China over sanctions), or U.S.-Cuba relations, the latter not exactly on anyone’s radar.

I’ll let you decide where Mr. Obama’s invoking of a mushroom cloud fits in:

“If there was ever a detonation in New York City, or London, or Johannesburg, the ramifications economically, politically and from a security perspective would be devastating,” Obama said Sunday.

However, Daniel Levy does see a shift, which Obama did direct.

It is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has, inadvertently, confronted the administration with Kurtzer’s truisms and helped create a learning curve of what one might call “policy review by painful experience.” Netanyahu helped provide a moment of clarity, demonstrating that confidence cannot be built incrementally, that settlements will not be frozen, and that East Jerusalem cannot be ignored. If one is to ascribe strategic foresight to the Obama administration (and that may be merited), then what they have done is to walk the Israeli prime minister down a corridor in which, in part due to his own actions, the exit routes are being sealed and a moment of real choice is approaching.

As I argued here back in September, the Obama settlement-freeze strategy took Netanyahu out of his comfort zone (of interim measures and economic peace). In rejecting the freeze, Netanyahu found himself not only facing but embracing the thing he most abhors — endgame peace negotiations. The latest round has taken this a step further, now making a discussion of Jerusalem inescapable. The more Netanyahu demands recognition of Israeli neighborhoods in East Jerusalem, the more obvious and unavoidable the flip side becomes — namely, that Palestinian East Jerusalem and Palestinian neighborhoods will need to be recognized as part of the Palestinian capital and state. He continues to be walked down that corridor.

Then there’s the perpetual Israel v. Arab leaders narrative, which the Wall Street Journal offers today:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government said it would reject any moves by the Obama administration to set its own timeline and benchmarks for Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, potentially establishing a new fault line between the U.S. and Israel.

Key Arab leaders, such as Jordan’s King Abdullah II, have publicly called for U.S. President Barack Obama to impose on Israel the parameters for negotiations, arguing that otherwise the process will stall interminably.

Pres. Obama is still entrenched on the diplomacy-negotiating side, with concrete outcomes in the distance. The expertise of my friends Steve Clemons and Daniel Levy must be considered first and foremost, because there are no two people whom I respect more on the issues they are covering. As viewpoints from optimists, however sober they can sometimes be, they are pushing the narrative in the correct direction, which I obviously applaud.

However, there is no evidence of an outcome in sight, for whatever “wizardry” Obama is exhibiting. Credit where it’s due to Pres. Obama is important, but let’s be careful not to set him up for the fail narrative. These are big blocks of international objectives he’s leaning into, so caution is warranted when projecting.

Speaking domestically and politically, the American people are not focused on national security or foreign policy, as in this election year neither of these issues will help struggling Democrats. That the White House continues down the road less traveled, drawing attention to important weighty matters that interests me is thrilling. But it won’t buy Democrats a single vote.

Meanwhile, amidst the fanfare and the glitter of world leaders talking about a new nuclear world, a 68-year old woman was struck and killed by a military vehicle inside Washington, D.C. As metaphor alone, especially when looking at the Middle East, but also the delicate balance of the people of Iran v. their heavy handed leadership, something is clearly way out of whack.

Pres. Obama’s efforts are certainly laudatory, but it’s way too soon to say it’s “wizardry,” especially when no one of whatever level of expertise can yet explain how anyone will stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, though there’s no evidence right now that is their goal. So, accepting it isn’t, there isn’t much maneuvering Obama has at all, because Iran will continue to enrich uranium.

We’ve been here before with Barack Obama. Since the nuclear security summit will not produce any agreement, let’s wait to see what manifests before we hail the conquering hero.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, we get a piece from the Christian Science monitor by Shadi Hamid asking Can Obama erase ‘Bush nostalgia’ in the Middle East? A snippet is below, which reminds me of the constant back and forth between Netanyahu and Jordan’s King Abdullah.

While President Obama’s domestic position has been strengthened considerably by the passage of health-care reform, there is nothing – yet – to suggest global support for American foreign policy will follow suit. Outside the US, there is a sense of “Bush nostalgia,” including in a rather unlikely place – the Middle East.

This is particularly the case for Arab reformers who, while disliking the Bush administration in almost every way, were fully aware that Bush’s “freedom agenda” helped usher in a promising moment for Arab reform. [...]