The video is compliments of the RNC press release announcing “November Starts Now”. They’re using Hillary Clinton’s 3:00 a.m. ad to hit Pres. Obama on the BP oil spill. How’s that for re-writing history on what Bush-Cheney did to MMS to allow the groundwork to be laid for the disaster? As for “November Starts Now,” the website is a joke. That says it all.
Meanwhile in New Hampshire… Beyond ego, I have no idea what possessed Sarah Palin to jump into New Hampshire and endorse New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, sweeping her into the “mama grizzly” fold, but it does show naïveté when mixing in a volatile maverick state like New Hampshire. Now, Ayotte may still win, but Palin’s endorsement has changed the dynamic in the race and it’s not all good for Ms. Ayotte.
Republicans like Sarah, but moderates and independents run from her like she’s carrying a political plague.
There’s not much doubt that the shift in the race is all about Ayotte. Hodes’ favorability numbers have seen little change over the last three months. Where 32% of voters saw him positively and 39% negatively in April, now 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 40% with an unfavorable one. But Ayotte’s seen a dramatic decline. Her favorability spread of 34/24 in April was the best we’ve measured for any Republican Senate candidate so far this year but her negatives have risen 15 points since that time while her positives have increased only 2 and she now stands at 36/39.
Most of the movement both in feelings about Ayotte and in the horse race has come with moderate voters. Moderates make up the largest bloc of the New Hampshire electorate at 47%, and Hodes’ lead with them has expanded from just 8 points at 47-39 in April to now 21 points at 51-30. Ayotte’s favorability with them has gone from +5 at 32/27 to -19 at 27/46.
This doesn’t surprise me, as when I think of a possible Palin 2012 run for the Republican nomination, the state I don’t count in her column is New Hampshire. It’s why she’s concentrated on Iowa and South Carolina, with a swing into Michigan on her book tour, though that’s Romney country, so who knows in the end. All speculation at this point, but still.
Nick Baumann of Mother Jones asked “Does Kelly Ayotte Have a Sarah Palin Problem?” last week (h/t David Corn). I don’t know if she does, but it’s clear Sarah Palin’s endorsement comes with stank on it if you’re trying to reel in moderates or independents, something that’s been predicted for quite some time.
On another note, Christine O’Donnell has been endorsed by the Tea Party. O’Donnell is a hard right-winger in the Sarah Palin mold running for U.S. Senate in Delaware. She’s an avowed anti feminist who used to do the talking head circuit years ago and was a favorite among the boys. She was chirpy, cheerful and filled with wingnuttery goodness, which suits her perfectly for the Tea Party crowd. But she’s no Nikki Haley, but then again the boys have John Ensign, so there are pretty politicians filled with hot air on both sides of the gender card.
This post has been updated, the title changed.
I just don’t see her getting the nomination. Sure, she’s creating buzz right now and raising money, but she’s poison. Independents hate her – heck all my female Republican friends hate her! R’s might like her energy, but they want to win more. In 2012, if Obama appears to be on the ropes, they will not chance it with her at the top of the ticket. (My guess is the nominee will be Romney.). Don’t forget, the entire focus will be on the Republicans, as the Dem primaries will be pro forma.
The only way she gets the nomination is if the economy rebounds, we pull out of Afghanistan, and everyone really does get a pony – then she’d be a great sacrificial lamb candidate, as McCain was in 2008.
I’m not so sure McCain was a sacrificial candidate. The GOP has had a pretty shallow talent pool for years, and you could argue that John McCain had been waiting at the top of it since 2000. Their radicalization now makes it even harder.
With few exceptions, the GOP is very imperious in how they assign nominees. Candidates are expected to wait their turn, and the party in the past has exerted enormous influence. There is no split of delegates — states are winner take all, so the math precludes a long, drawn-out primary battle.
If Sarah Palin were to somehow survive Iowa, I imagine they’d pretty quickly rally behind the most viable candidate and snuff her out.
Even if they feel they have no choice at the top of the ticket, the GOP is still going to want to turn out their base for all the down-ticket races. They will control more House Seats, if not the House, and governorships and 33 Senate Seats will be up for grabs. They would never send her off as a sacrificial lamb simply because it would kill their chances down-ticket.
You’re right – they didn’t have a deep stable, but after the SC primary fiasco in 2000, Mccain was owed. That’s why I think he was allowed to play “maverick”. Palin, except to her truest followers is a national joke that will only get worse over the next 2 years.
I know you see her as a player Taylor and you know more than I do about such things but I am increasingly BORED by all thing Palin.
It’s pretty sad when Lindsay Lohan’s 15 minutes are lasting longer.
When the campaign is one and a half years away and you are already begin to grate on peoples’ nerves and bore them, I believe you are witnessing nothing but a profound limitation of skill.
Yes. Boring.
It’s not me seeing her as a player, LLady, she is a player in the Republican Party. But again, there is no evidence she can take it wider, but she only has to win the nomination. You know Republicans, maybe they’ll give Obama the gift of Sarah Palin. I’m not betting on it, however.
As for endorsements, in New Hampshire she finally ran into a wall.
That wall would be common sense, Taylor. There are only certain pockets of the constituency in which she is a plus as an endorser, as opposed to a pariah for those regions where moderates and old school Republicans reign.
ppp polls ca and finds another palin backed candidate fiorina as losing 9pts to boxer. why? same thing- mods and indies are going to boxer strongly. will this last through nov? i pray.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/7/27/888147/-CA-Sen:-Boxer-pulls-into-clear-lead-over-Fiorina
No one should ever underestimated Boxer. That Fiorina’s views are outside the norm in CA should be obvious to anyone, though on Carly I don’t think her problem is Palin. People likely remember well the headlines when she ran Hewlett-Packard, as well as the huge scandal surrounding her tenure.
Its hard to tell whats going to happen in November. I would have thought Sarah Palin would go in the southern states and midwest and some states out west than in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is moderate to independent and Sarah Palin is conserative. But there are more republican women running this year than I have seen. I think Oklahoma GOP voted for a woman to run for governor if I am not mistaken. And with Nikki Haley in South Carolina and Karen Handel that might win the GOP race in Georgia August the 10th. Sarah Palin endorcments might win some and might lose some but she remains one of the biggest names in the GOP. I think sadly we could see more republican women being elected to office. The democrats didn’t help with Stupak leading the charge with going against womens rights and now were seeing the effect.