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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Archive | October, 2010

You Don’t Want To Know

By on 05 October 2010



Gallup earns its reputation for “volatile” polling with this one.

Nate Silver does the analysis.

…But then at about 5:45 p.m., this poll — Gallup’s weekly tracking of the generic ballot — hit the newswires. The poll gave Republicans a 3-point edge among registered voters — well within the range that Gallup has shown in recent weeks. But Gallup also introduced its likely voter model this week, and there, Republicans’ advantage was much larger: 13 points under one scenario — what Gallup calls a “higher turnout” scenario — and 18 points in another, “lower turnout” version of the model.

Those are absolutely terrifying numbers for Democrats. Although it’s not completely straightforward to translate the generic ballot into actual votes, were Democrats to lose the House popular vote by anything resembling that margin, their losses could be catastrophic. According to one formula that models turnover in the House based on the Gallup likely voter model specifically, a 13-point lead for the G.O.P. would translate into a gain of 71 (!) seats — and an 18-point, lead, a gain of 86 (!!) seats.

I mentioned the Newsweek poll from over the weekend in passing on Monday, but didn’t say much else, because I honestly didn’t believe the data, unlike the NBC/WSJ poll, which specifically said Democrats were paying attention, but Republicans kept the advantage. I’ve been combing over a lot of data from the poll geeks, finding that Newsweek poll just screwy optimistic, which I don’t think helps anyone.

Now Gallup is predicting a wave that has the GOTP capturing 71 to 86 seats in the House, which mimics what Dick Morris has been predicting, for whatever that’s worth. Seems as outlandishly negative as Newsweek’s was positive.

It’s the chaos politics in play that allows for Gallup to predict likely voters in such a tsunami for the GOTP, as well as Newsweek to wax optimistic. The only thing on which everyone agrees is that this seems like no ordinary year going into November, regardless of the comparisons to previous wave elections.

Below is Nate Silver’s handy dandy graphic on poll averages leading to his conclusion that Gallup’s 71-86 prediction based on their likely model is at best gutsy and at worse outlandishly over the top.

I’ve thought for quite some time that the House is not only going, but long gone, with Dems potentially losing in the 50-seat range. But 86 seats? Speechless.

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Sarah Palin’s Candidate, Christine O’Donnell: ‘I’m not a witch’

By on 05 October 2010

Meanwhile, independents continue to lean heavily toward the GOP in their voting intentions, a sharp change from both 2006 and 2008. Among independent voters most likely to cast ballots this year, 53 percent say they favor the Republican in their district, compared with 33 percent who favor the Democratic candidate. – Democrats gain in poll but GOP still leads as midterm elections near

This campaign ad is one for the history books.

For all the energy the Tea Party Republicans have provided, they stepped over the cliff in the Senate race in Delaware, with Sarah Palin the person who led them over it. So, though Sarah Palin has been the leader of a movement that has given the only life to the Republican Party they currently enjoy, her choice to back Christine O’Donnell is a colossal embarrassment. Ms. O’Donnell is getting creamed and proclaiming in this weird ad “I’m not a witch” won’t help. Whoever thought that was a winner must have been a Democratic saboteur masquerading as a Republican.

Another Tea Party candidate, Linda McMahon, got some bad poll news today. Richard Blumenthal is up by 12 points according to the latest PPP poll, which comes as a real relief, since other polls have showed McMahon much closer. McMahon joining Miller in saying she’s against the minimum wage being enforced on businesses. Hey, that’s your GOTP, because Republicans have never been crazy about the minimum wage or unions, which fuel the middle class.

However, Congress is so disrespected by likely voters that one-third, according to today’s WashingtonPost/ABC poll, think that Tea Party candidates would “change the culture of Washington” if they were elected, most in a positive way. The energy behind this belief is what is fueling likely voters who hold the House in their hands, which will very likely flip to a Republican majority after the elections.

There are a couple reasons this is true. First, as predicted, voters aren’t listening to the Democratic campaign theme that this election is about “a choice” that would turn everything back to the Bush era. The second reality is that negative ads will get you only so far, which ties in with Indies and other likely voters siding with GOTP candidates no matter what comes at them. From Greg Sargent:

* The Dem argument about “extremist” GOPers isn’t resonating: One other finding that has to be frustrating for Dems: Only 35 percent say GOP candidates are “too conservative,” versus 40 percent who say they’re about right — meaning the public may not be listening to another core Dem message, that the party has been hijacked by Tea Party whackjob extremists.

But all this attention on Christine O’Donnell, which everyone is enjoying, will not take the sting out of what’s happening in Wisconsin, but other states as well (Pennsylvania and Ohio, to name just two, though West Virginia is also giving Dems fits). I wouldn’t have even done this post on her, except the ad was so creepy and desperate, calling attention to it was a must. Because with Russ Feingold in a lot of trouble, it’s very real that Democrats may lose one of the most independent voices in the Senate, simply because he’s been in Washington a long time and has got a “D” behind his name. But anyone thinking Sen. Feingold is an insider hasn’t been paying attention. But that’s the price of chaos politics. It’s indiscriminately cruel in how the hammer comes down.

This post has been updated.

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That Sinking Feeling

By on 04 October 2010

… Most Democratic incumbents who are going to lose in November will get at least 45 percent of the vote. Many will get much more, losing by only 2 or 3 points. That’s what happens in elections. The Democratic base in most competitive districts is at least in the low to mid-40s. Given that, it isn’t surprising Democratic Members are even or slightly ahead at this point in some races. They aren’t going to get much of the undecided vote, so they need to be up near the 50 percent mark on Election Day to win. … – Stu Rothenberg, Roll Call (via HuffPostHill)

Obama’s approval among African Americans remains sky high; it’s the same with die hards in the Democratic base, then you get to subgroups. Overall his approval is staying around 45%, which still foreshadows a House takeover by Republicans (like what happened with Reagan and Clinton, also remembering both also got reelected), even with the signs that Democrats are tuning in and signing up. There are, however, other numbers that will have visions of subpoenas dancing in your head, because if Republicans take the House they won’t flinch with wasting time. The Senate’s been doing it for years.

When you look at where Obama’s numbers dip below 50% approval it gives you an idea of what could happen if the anti insider and anti Obama wave hits on November 2nd, which it could. In fact, I still think that’s a better bet than Democratic enthusiasm outweighing the right. The LA Times calls the numbers “ominous,” which is accurate, as far as I’m concerned. From Gallup:

Among women Obama comes in at 47%;

College graduate, no post grad degree, 46%;

30 to 49-year-olds, 45%;

Midwest voters, 45%;

West voters, 45%;

Some college, 45%;

Monthly income $2,000-$4,999, 45%;

50- to 64-year-olds, 44%;

Monthly income $7,500 or more, 44%

Men, 43%

Monthly income, $5,000-$7,499, 43%;

High school or less, 42%;

South, 41%;

Independent, 40% (which is why I’ve been writing that Indies are going right, but also going to vote Tea Party or GOTP candidates, even though they think less of both than of Dems);

Married, 39%;

65-year-olds and older, 38% (they always vote);

Non-Hispanic white, 36%;

Conservative, 23%;

Republican, 12%.

The next question, which is a bit early to ask but jumps into your mind, is: How does Pres. Obama get the voters who rate his approval below 50% back?

…as for the “Family Guy” episode video with Rush Limbaugh at the top, I simply think it’s hilarious. Considering it a laugh cocktail after digesting Gallup’s subgroup numbers.

This post has been updated.

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Dems Still In It, Because the Alternative Is Frightening

By on 04 October 2010

Once-despondent Democrats now believe that they may be able to avert a total midterm wipeout, as a series of important states now appears to be trending in their direction or growing more competitive. The bad news: In a sign of how hostile the election environment remains for the party, the cautious optimism is largely due to the view that the impending political hurricane could be downgraded from category 5 to category 4. … – Democrats seize on signs of hope



The One Nation rally and the latest Newsweek poll, coming after the NBC/WSJ poll, offers more hope for Democrats, even as the underlying challenge stays the same.

The midterms has been all about the Tea Party up until now. We’re just beginning to head into the pay attention period of the election season. This will be the most dangerous time for the Tea Party and the far right, which is already being proven, because as people tune in the contrast between Democrats and people running on the Republican right is as real as it is frightening.

Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and the right-wing radio crew, along with Fox News, are all going full tilt to back the extremists. Rush saying these “regular people” have simply lived “real lives.” One can only imagine what the wingnut radio crew would be squealing if Ms. O’Donnell was a Democrat claiming to have practiced witchcraft. Rush calling Mr. Paladino “Trumanesque” when he threatened to take out New York Post State Editor Fred Dicker. This election season has turned Limbaugh’s analysis into a parody parade of not to be believed propaganda that I haven’t heard from him since he speculated on air that Pres. Bill Clinton was a murderer.

The race that most defines the midterms is Sen. Harry Reid versus Sharron Angle. Reid is disliked by many Nevadans, but also gets low marks in just about every national poll. However, when you look at Sharron Angle there is real danger in being so cavalier as to think she’s a sober choice for the Senate. This race is a microcosm of what’s happening in other places across the country, with the Tea Party candidates that are succeeding revealing their inner adult, which has been Marco Rubio’s strength, no matter his far right reach. Still, the bottom line is that for many likely voters the choice remains none of the above or the lesser of two evils, which actually is the only thing standing between the Democrats and oblivion.

Meanwhile, Thomas Friedman made the case Sunday for an independent candidacy for 2012, which spun Steve Benen and others into a hissy fit over it. Granted, Mr. Friedman doesn’t get much right (see Iraq), with Benen saying Friedman is simply part of a “long list of centrist media figures to call for a third party to offer a sensible alternative to Democrats and Republicans.” Benen finds Friedman’s argument “unpersuasive.” But if Benen is going to grumble about “unpersuasive” he should check his own argument, though he’s got a lot of company on this one.

There’s a reason people aren’t crazy about both parties, even if they like Democrats more, including what they say they stand for, with Republicans coming in second to Democrats. Campaigning on the public option then killing it without a fight isn’t inspiring. Republicans killing everything is even worse. Speaker Pelosi inviting the Catholic Church to help write health care was an outrage. Republicans killing any hope of expanding health care even worse. It’s the type of leaders that rise in both big parties, which many believe has gotten us in the mess we’re in, but is also keeping us stuck. Likely voters are turning to outsiders, while longing for a choice beyond the big two, for a reason.

It’s a problem when Rand Paul and Jack Conway, clearly the better choice for Kentuckians, both say they think the Bush tax cuts should be extended. Both afraid to upset the tax cart, because someone might run a negative ad saying they’re raising taxes. Bill Clinton raised taxes in the 1990s, but that didn’t work out too badly, now did it? But of course, Bubba could sell it.

Now, it wouldn’t be a shocker, since Friedman is a New Yorker, that he’s secretly hoping for a Michael Bloomberg run in 2012. That’s not the issue and neither is the Donald Trump fantasy candidacy. The issue is that people are sick of the same old political formula with the same types of creatures the big two parties churn out, which now includes Barack Obama for many likely voters, because people feel the campaign marketing hasn’t lived up to the man’s actions. It’s why the number one issue in the midterms is outsider status.

Take Linda McMahon in Connecticut. She’s left her wrestling wildness in the dust and is coming off as a serious businesswoman who wants to go to Washington to change what’s been happening. She’s also got the outsider, independent quotient, which is the number one identifying element for all candidates who are rising to the top, including being a woman, something that makes her the ultimate political outsider. As an aside, Charlie Crist going conveniently Independent has been clearly seen as perfunctory, with Florida voters knowing an insider pol when they see one, rejecting Crist for Rubio. McMahon’s opponent, Mr. Blumenthal, is as insider as you get in Connecticut, so with McMahon’s sober campaign countering the crazy of other right-wing candidates, she’s moved into striking distance. Whether she can win is another matter, which is still the question haunting all the outsider types who have come a long way, but still have to get elected.

As for Democrats, they’ve got real problems, which are making people restless and looking elsewhere. With Pres. Obama the instigator of the “Debt Commission” that is targeting fundamental changes to Social Security, with Democrats going along so far, why shouldn’t voters be questioning the loss of their political soul? When Democrats won’t fight for middle class tax cuts and make the case before an election, why shouldn’t people look for an Independent who will?

What will put the outsiders in office is that Democrats may come out for candidates as they would in normal midterms, but Tea Party, Independents and Republican numbers will likely be much greater. What shakes out in the balance is the election, but also the House, with the Senate remaining safe for Democrats, though considering their weak leadership it hardly matters.

Looking forward, what the chaos politics of the midterms continues to unleash is a further acting out of voters showing their dissatisfaction with both Democrats and Republicans. It won’t go away after November no matter how much partisans want to ignore it and whether Tea Party candidates win or lose.

This post has been updated.

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Gay in America: Coming Out, and Recent Suicides

By on 03 October 2010

TM NOTE: This is a diary by Joyce Arnold, originally posted “In the News.”

October 11 is National Coming Out Day. Coming out can still be dangerous. As can being “outed.” Recent suicides by young gay men reveal this, or rather, reinforce the reality in which significant numbers of LGBTs (of all ages) still live. Discrimination is real, in spite of gains ranging from tolerance to acceptance to active support.

In Washington, D.C., on the 11th of October, 1987, the second major LGBT demonstration occurred in the nation’s capital. Amazingly, a half a million people showed up. The energy from the “March on Washington for Gay and Lesbian Rights” carried over, and four months later about 100 LGBT activists from around the nation met. The result was the decision to have a day that would celebrate “coming out.” One major reason for that decision was a recognition that the LGBT community was frequently on the defensive. Why not turn that around? Rather than defending who we are, why not celebrate it? The October 11th anniversary date of that 1987 March was chosen for NCOD

And even with all the changes for the better since 1987, NCOD is still important, because “coming out” is still necessary, and while it is surely easier, safer to do now than even five years ago, it’s also still done in a society in which a fairly significant number of people think “homosexuals” are abnormal if not evil. A few right-sighted sites:

American Family Association
Family Research Council
Our American Values

Or you can just listen to some among the DC Elite who are defending the need for DADT (or read the infamous questionnaire), and opposing the need for ENDA.

Check out the important message, via YouTube (above) from Ellen DeGeneres about the recent suicides of young gay men — high school and college ages. “Bullying” seems to be perceived, rather often, as a no big deal, “kids will be kids, suck it up,” kind of thing. Or as “the fags and dykes deserve it.” Parents, community members in general, administration, teachers, school boards, local, state and federal government all share responsibility. As, of course, do the students of whatever age who think, as in the case of one of the recent suicides, that it’s perfectly okay to secretly live stream sexual intimacy between two “fags.”

This isn’t new, of course. But I think the fact that in significant ways, it is “easier” to be out, that it’s a “no problem” kind of thing for many … I fear that it’s easy not to notice the discrimination and harassment that does, in fact, exist. Kids, at very young ages, are marked as “gay” and different and therefore targets of everything from playground taunting to being chased down school hallways to being left to die hanging on a fence. In various professional roles, I’ve had many conversations with targets of such, and with parents and teachers and administrators. The range of harassment is wide. Hallway, loudly voiced jabs: “Hey, are you a dyke?” “Look at the queers!” Shoving and pushing. Hitting, with fists or baseball bats, or whatever is handy.

This reality isn’t limited to any age group, of course. The fact that “homosexuality” remains something many feel quite comfortable openly judging, mocking, demeaning … this is one reason why it is important how DADT, ENDA, DOMA, etc., are handled by the White House, as well as Congress.

To read about the current suicide stories among young gay men, among multiple sites check out:

Pam’s Houseblend
Box Turtle Bulletin
The Bilreco Project
The Dallas Voice
National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association
Electric Blue

TM.com edited the above diary to embed links, as well as YouTube clip.

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The Sunday News Round-Up: Autumn Edition

By on 03 October 2010

Good morning! I hope everyone is having a good weekend. Here in Boston it is a beautiful Autumn weekend- this is my favorite time of year here with the leaves turning, it’s absolutely beautiful.

On this day in history, October 2, 1942 President Franklin D. Roosevelt established the Office of Economic Stabilization.

Here are some links to go with your morning coffee. Feel free to drop links you recommend in the comments:

~The One Nation rally took place in DC yesterday. The rally featured progressive, labor and civil rights groups and some coverage can be found here.

~Too Big To Fail? TARP Part 2? Yup. So much for financial reform getting to the root of the problem which causes the collapse of the largest financial institutions. It’s this sort of thing that Obama doesn’t seem to understand when people criticize his great legislative victories.

~The media seems to be selectively ignoring the news that the State Dept. has given a lucrative contract to the Defense Contractor Formerly Known As Blackwater. Taylor wrote about it here and if you missed it, check it out because it’s galling. In fact, don’t just check it out, email the State Dept. and the White House and and ask why U.S. taxpayers will be funding this mercenary army of criminals.

~Glenn Greenwald was one of a small cadre of people who drew attention to the just-released UN report finding that Israel used excessive force in its handling of the boarding of the flotilla the Mavi Marmara. While Israel has declared the report “biased” some of the forensic findings raise serious questions about whether the Justice Department has a responsibility to investigate further. In particular, it appears that U.S. citizen Furkan Dogan may have been shot several times at a distance when he was filming what was taking place on deck and then shot again while lying on the ground at very close range. Silence from the US government and most in the mainstream media.

~Can the Nevada Senate race get any more bizarre? Yes it can.

~19 year-old Tyler Clementi posted these words on Facebook via his cell phone before jumping off a bridge and ending his life: ““Going to jump off the gw bridge sorry.” As everyone now knows the reason for his suicide was that his Rutgers college roommate put hidden cameras in the room to videotape Clementi and a male schoolmate engaging in sexual activity. This is the fourth suicide of a gay teen in three weeks. Clearly, despite all our gains in the area of gay rights and tolerance, we have to stop and reflect on the fact that we still have not come nearly far enough. Dharun Ravi and Molly Wei have been arrested and face a maximum of 5 years in prison for invasion of privacy. Somehow that seems inadequate and apparently the prosecutor agrees as they are now considering hate crimes charges.

~And how has the right wing responded to these horrible acts of bullying? With compassion? With a sense of spiritual giving and offers of comfort and support? Nah, this is how they responded.

~Hey, Democrats and Republicans are working together on something- they have agreed to block Obama’s ability to use the Congressional hiatus to make recess appointments.

~Why is the Michigan Assistant Attorney General Andrew Shirvell stalking a gay U. of Michigan student? Have people lost their minds?

~Did we declare war on Pakistan and someone forgot to tell us? Things are really heating up in Pakistan as they continue to bar NATO convoys from entering Afghanistan through the Khyber Pass after the death of several Pakistani soldiers who they claim were killed by NATO (ie. US) helicopter fire.

~See ‘ya later Rahm.

~Right wing Karl Rove wannabe Jame’s O’Keefe’s plan to try to seduce a CNN reporter and videotape it, not only shows that O’Keefe wouldn’t know investigative journalism if it bit him in the ass, but it also likely demonstrates that the kid may very well be not right in the head. I’m serious about that now.

~And when Andrew Breitbart speaks out against O’Keefe’s latest stunt, then you know how twisted it must be.

~Osama Bin Laden is back in a new audiotape and uh, he’s talking about climate change and flood/disaster relief.

~Another Harry Potter book? Maybe? Possibly? Please?

~Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urging the Palestinians to continue direct negotiations despite continued illegal settlement construction beyond the Green Line. Much will depend on the results of the Arab League meeting later this week.

~Salon disses Bob Woodward’s tactics in getting high-profile government and military officials to let him listen in on their high-level conversations/deliberations for his latest book Obama’s Wars. In return for access, he flatters them not only in person, but in his books. That raises some questions though- exactly how objective is Woodward if in order to maintain access, he must flatter those who are the subject of his writing?

~Staff changes in the White House seem to bode unwell for progressives. There is nothing bold or energizing about the new people replacing the old ones. This raises the question of whether Obama is too insulated by those he knows and trusts. Like so many other Presidents he seems to prize loyalty and status quo ideas over those who might express bold, diverse opinions. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t begrudge anyone who wants a few loyal advisers around, but had Obama thrown out some of the names of these folks (Summers, Emanuel, Goolsbee) during the 2008 election season, it likely would have caused many progressives to go “huh?” Pete Rouse will replace Emanuel, at least for the short term.

~And who exactly is Pete Rouse? The Washington Post did a slavishly flattering profile of him which resulted in Slate dissing both the WaPo and NYT for their shameless and quite transparent efforts to kiss both Rouse and Emanuel’s you-know-what for the purpose of maintaining top level White House access. It would be quite a funny read were it not for the fact that it displays how the MSM are really just stenographers for the powerful.

~GOP Senator Jim DeMint seems to be a wee bit drunk on Tea Party power and it may anger some Republican senators as much as it does Democrats.

~Speaking of Senator DeMint, he recently opined that gay people and unmarried women who sleep with their boyfriends (but not unmarried men who sleep with their girlfriends?) should NOT be teaching our children! And when confronted with his draconian bigotry (and sexism) he actually made HIMSELF the victim by claiming his views were being targeted by people intolerant of his religious beliefs. Or something like that. *sigh*

~Robert Gibbs for DNC Chair? Now, I’m not a Beltway person but I was wondering, does anyone like Robert Gibbs except Robert Gibbs and Barack Obama? Because it always seems to me that his sarcastic, arrogant style of communication rubs a lot of people the wrong way.

~Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. throws another million dollars at conservatives, this time through the Chamber of Commerce.

~How can anyone take Jan Brewer seriously?

~So, who is the big winner in the Iraqi elections after months of being unable to form a government? Iran! [per Professor Juan Cole over at Informed Comment]

~Brazilian candidate Dilma Rousseff may be headed for the presidency pending the results of today’s voting in Brazil.

~Frank Rich has a provocative opinion piece in today’s NYT about Christine O’Donnell being the GOP’s useful idiot and how her detractors may not have the last laugh in November. According to Rich, one of the functions she serves is to provide faux populism to a party entrenched in corporate protectionism. Whether one agrees or disagrees, it’s an interesting read.

~I was surprised to read this opinion piece in the WaPo because it’s not often that I agree with their views on foreign policy and national security/defense as they tend to lean in a quite hawkish direction. But today they have a column about how when Defense Secretary Gates retires, President Obama could do the Democratic Party a big favor and break with precedent and appoint an actual Democrat to that position. The Democrats’ constant need to fill the post with Republican scions of the defense establishment suggests an appalling lack of self confidence and it also sets the stage for rifts in the administration when it comes to defense policy, something we now see has plagued the Obama administration since day one.

The End.

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My $0.02: An Inconvenient Hope (and some Bollywood)

By on 02 October 2010

Wonk the Vote here with my Saturday reads, rants, and recommendations.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dYb-g8MZt4&w=300&showinfo=0]
Mohd. Rafi Sahab, English recording,
“Although we hail from different lands…”

I’m actually starting this roundup on Friday night while getting my Bollywood fix–if that kind of thing bores the daylights out of you, by all means, skip down to the newsy part of this post. I have Rafi playing in the background as I type, and I just can’t pass up a chance to frontpage a bit on filmi stuff. If you haven’t scrolled past already, here’s the Times of India’s Nikhat Kazmi on the blockbuster that is breaking a lot of box office records right now:

“For anybody who wants to know what is the on-screen definition of Bollywood, Dabangg is truly text book fare. It’s loud, crazy, zany, exaggerated, larger-than-life, almost nonsensical, totally make-believe, comic book like, complete kitsch, generously peppered with the mandatory desi tadka (garnishing) of songs and dances that keep popping out of nowhere and is literally oozing with star charisma. Most importantly, it’s not meant to make sense. It’s only meant to entertain. And entertain, it does in overdoses. No, this isn’t meant for people who are looking for different cinema. Nor is it meant for the viewer who likes movies to appeal to his head. Yet, for those who celebrate and serenade the `silliness’ of mainstream masala movie lore and swear by its popcorn quotient, Dabangg is the greatest getaway of the season.”

That’s basically spot-on, except that I enjoyed Dabaang (literally “Fearless”) even though I’m a cinephile lover of all that is heady, slow, and cerebral in Indian parallel cinema (which, in my personal experience, most people don’t even realize exists when they bash Hindi films). I grew up on masala films, though, and love it for the good dumb fun it can be when it’s done fearlessly. Indian cinema so often gets a bad rap, and I mostly brought the topic up just so that I could sneak in my abridged list of my recommends from the last decade or so (some are arthouse indies, others are actual Bollywood fare believe it or not):

  1. Rituparno Ghosh’s Raincoat (2004), my all-time favorite; adaptation of O’Henri’s “Gift of the Magi.”
  2. Nagesh Kukunoor’s Dor (“the Thread,” 2006), women-centric and another all-time fav of mine.
  3. Aparna Sen’s 15 Park Avenue (2005), my favorite movie on the mystery of madness.
  4. Chandra Prakash Dwivedi’s Pinjar (“the Skeleton” or “the cage,” 2003), based on the 1970s novel of the same name, set against the backdrop of Hindu-Muslim tensions during Partition time. A look at gender-based violence in areas of social unrest. The conclusion is difficult, but the movie prokes thought and discussion.
  5. Deepa Mehta’s Water (2005) as well as Mehta’s Heaven on Earth (2008), these are technically Canadian, because Mehta is too controversial for the misogynist asshats in India who protest her.
  6. Ram Gopal Verma’s Kaun (“Who,” 1999), my favorite Indian suspense thriller.
  7. Prakash Jha’s Gangaajal (“holy waters of Ganga,” 2003), the plight and uprising of ordinary people. Loosely based on the 1980 Bhagalpur blindings.
  8. Ek Alag Mausam (“A different season,” 2003): groundbreaker, broke the silence on HIV/AIDS in Indian movies.
  9. Subhash Ghai’s Yuvvraaj (2008), one of my guilty pleasures. Shameless ripoff of Rain Man but with its own whimsy up the wazoo.
    10. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-OAIAGzrFc&w=300&showinfo=0]
  10. I could really go on forever, but I’ll wrap up with a movie I saw just the other week — Anusha Rizvi’s Peepli Live (2010) dark comedy on farmer suicides in the fictional village of Peepli satirizing the media and political reactions; India’s submission to the 2011 Oscars.

Ok, now onto the news. I’ve already done my lil’ miss politically independent rant for the week (see: “Thing One and Thing Two…”), so this is just going to be a rundown of headlines with quick blurbs from me.

Continue Reading →

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State Dept. Awards Blackwater $10 Billion Deal

By on 01 October 2010

“From this war’s very beginning, this administration has permitted thousands of heavily-armed military contractors to march through Iraq without any law or court to rein them in or hold them accountable. These private security contractors have been reckless and have compromised our mission in Iraq. The time to show these contractors the door is long past due. We need to stop filling the coffers of contractors in Iraq, and make sure that armed personnel in Iraq are fully accountable to the U.S. government and follow the chain of command.” – Senator Hillary Clinton, circa 2008

This is really embarrassing for the State Department, but especially for Sect. Clinton. The above statement makes a mockery of what just happened under her watch. After all of Clinton’s protestations as a senator, but also presidential candidate, awarding a whopping contract to the notoriously unpredictable Blackwater, now doing business under another name, is reprehensible hypocrisy. This is the same crew who allegedly got drunk before going on a shooting spree.

From Spencer Ackerman:

Blackwater and the State Department tried their best to obscure their renewed relationship. As Danger Room reported Wednesday, Blackwater did not appear on the vendors’ list for Worldwide Protective Services. And the State Department confirms that the company, renamed Xe Services, didn’t actually submit its own independent bid.

Instead, they used a blandly named cut-out, “International Development Solutions,” to retain a toehold into State’s lucrative security business. No one who looks at the official announcement of the contract award would have any idea that firm is connected to Blackwater.

Blackwater’s “affiliate U.S. Training Center is part of International Development Solutions (IDS), a joint venture with Kaseman,” according to an official State Department statement to Danger Room. “This joint venture was determined by the Department’s source-selection authority to be eligible for award.”

Last year, a Blackwater subdivision, the Blackwater Lodge and Training Center, changed its name to U.S. Training Center. Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Carl Levin (D-Michigan) blasted Blackwater in February for setting up shell companies in order to keep winning government security contracts despite its infamy. [..]

It’s very hard to believe that due diligence wasn’t done to check each contracting outfit, look at their background, as well as the lineage of the company. It’s not like we don’t know Blackwater is setting up shell companies to hide their identity.

Oh, but maybe the outfit has changed, or maybe there are new regulations making everything hunky dory.

The other task order issued under Worldwide Protective Services is to protect the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. That contract’s gone to EOD Technology, a global firm which has in the past guarded the British and Canadian embassies in the Afghan capital. And that means ArmorGroup North America — last seen with its guards taking tequila shots out of each others’ butts and engaging in extracurricular sex trafficking — has lost a contract worth nearly $274 million over five years.

According to a different statement from the Department of State, the new Worldwide Protective Services contract comes with new safeguards to prevent abuse. Those include mandatory cultural awareness training, the addition of interpreters on all protection missions, financial penalties for poor performance, and a formal ban on alcohol. (Yes — after years of alcohol-related contractor incidents.) Despite these new protections, the department still sees fit to continue business with the most infamous member of the private-security world.

It’s inexcusable to award Blackwater, under whatever name, a mercenary contract given their track record. These are the types of guys who give our country a very bad name, but also hurt the U.S. mission.

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The Day That Rahm Left, Dems Couldn’t Be in a Worse Position

By on 01 October 2010

–this post has been updated–

… Our last national poll found that 19% of voters both disapproved of Barack Obama’s job performance and disapproved of the Republicans in Congress. Those folks are planning to vote Republican for Congress by a 76-6 margin this fall. They may not be happy with either side but when it comes to deciding how to vote in November their feelings against Obama are a much more decisive factor than their feelings against Republicans in general. – Public Policy Polling

Midterm voters aren’t crazy about Republicans, but they’re intense feelings against Pres. Obama outweigh that feeling. The closer we get to election day, unfortunately for Democrats, the more this reality is going to grow.

The mantra continues to be by most that this is all economy driven. While there can be no question that the economy is making things worse, the feelings of anger, disappointment and frustration go well beyond the economy for Democrats, but particularly for Pres. Obama. It’s one reason Andrew Sullivan’s plea to watch Obama’s speech on C-SPAN just won’t work and in fact sounds remarkably out of touch.

People have heard the words. They remember candidate Obama and the hope they felt that he was going to be different. It’s not that he didn’t accomplish everything. It’s that as the months have passed in his first term, once health care was passed, the auto industry was bailed out, and the stimulus was in motion, what your average middle class American is feeling doesn’t seem to have registered with Pres. Obama. In his words and speeches he talks about “not going back,” obviously invoking Bush without saying it. The trouble is no voter today wants to go back, but they also don’t want what Mr. Obama’s been doing and want to make sure that doesn’t continue.

Considering Pres. Obama and the Democrats haven’t said what they’d do going forward, mostly because they dont’ know, the sour taste in everyone’s mouths is all people are left swallowing.

There is another thing working against Pres. Obama that goes well beyond the economy. Many people feel the President is above it all, because he just won’t admit he’s part of the problem. That he doesn’t understand this, doesn’t relate to the charge, but just keeps on pressing forward telling voters about “the choice” just leads Obama and the Dems into a ditch, because “the choice” right now doesn’t include them.

Pres. Obama’s lack of humility is killing Democrats for the midterm.

The question is how come the White House and the DNC doesn’t know this is their reality? Even Speaker Pelosi is ignoring it, talking of “spirit of optimism” as her caucus leaves to fight the midterms. Is she kidding? The better choice for Democrats would have been to head straight into voter discontent, acknowledge it, then say we hear you and we’re going to do better if you give us two more years. Then name the top five priorities, something for Pres. Bill Clinton has also suggested.

Instead, Obama, Biden and the White House has blamed everyone else for not bucking up. They should have tried something unexpected, taking responsibility and being humble, saying “we need your help, because we can’t do this without you.” Better yet, Pres. Obama should have signed an Executive Order stopping military discharges for gay soldiers, then pushed in public the case for middle class tax cuts. Stood on a line.

None of this happened, choosing the amorphous message of “the choice,” which is falling on deaf ears, because Obama isn’t one of them either with most likely voters, especially Independents.

There is a sour feeling about Pres. Obama out in the electorate that is not only toxic, but goes well beyond economic answers. It’s a feeling that the President won’t admit he’s part of the problem. He seems a league a way, in his own world.

The most telling moment was yesterday during Dylan Ratigan’s show when Steve Hildebrand Hildebrand, Barack Obama’s 2008 Deputy National Campaign Manager, was his guest. He was brought on to make the case for Obama. In an ironic turn, however, Mr. Hildebrand ended up making the case of why the base was so mad at Obama and the Democrats. At one point Ratigan said that he was supposed to make the case for Obama, not against him. If the White House was watching, no doubt they simply called Hildebrand another “whiner.”

There will be a lot of changes once them midterms have come and gone. Mr. Rouse taking the place of Rahm Emanuel who is leaving today, which is getting a lot of press. Unfortunately, even though Rahm’s a favorite whipping boy, because of his antipathy towards Obama’s critics, his abrasiveness, and because Democrats cannot get rid of the boss, it won’t solve the problem. Still, it does give the Obama White House a chance at a reset. However, Mr. Rouse, who is evidently a very nice man, from what I’m hearing, is still a loyalist insider. But a New York Times article points to Rouse as helping Elizabeth Warren make it in. That’s something. Still, as far as I can ascertain, the White House bubble is not in any danger of being pierced with a dose of reality, something the Democratic base has been trying to deliver for months.

You can move the deck chairs, even fire the crew, but if the captain doesn’t have a compass, he’s never going to find his way.

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