… Most Democratic incumbents who are going to lose in November will get at least 45 percent of the vote. Many will get much more, losing by only 2 or 3 points. That’s what happens in elections. The Democratic base in most competitive districts is at least in the low to mid-40s. Given that, it isn’t surprising Democratic Members are even or slightly ahead at this point in some races. They aren’t going to get much of the undecided vote, so they need to be up near the 50 percent mark on Election Day to win. … – Stu Rothenberg, Roll Call (via HuffPostHill)
Obama’s approval among African Americans remains sky high; it’s the same with die hards in the Democratic base, then you get to subgroups. Overall his approval is staying around 45%, which still foreshadows a House takeover by Republicans (like what happened with Reagan and Clinton, also remembering both also got reelected), even with the signs that Democrats are tuning in and signing up. There are, however, other numbers that will have visions of subpoenas dancing in your head, because if Republicans take the House they won’t flinch with wasting time. The Senate’s been doing it for years.
When you look at where Obama’s numbers dip below 50% approval it gives you an idea of what could happen if the anti insider and anti Obama wave hits on November 2nd, which it could. In fact, I still think that’s a better bet than Democratic enthusiasm outweighing the right. The LA Times calls the numbers “ominous,” which is accurate, as far as I’m concerned. From Gallup:
Among women Obama comes in at 47%;
College graduate, no post grad degree, 46%;
30 to 49-year-olds, 45%;
Midwest voters, 45%;
West voters, 45%;
Some college, 45%;
Monthly income $2,000-$4,999, 45%;
50- to 64-year-olds, 44%;
Monthly income $7,500 or more, 44%
Men, 43%
Monthly income, $5,000-$7,499, 43%;
High school or less, 42%;
South, 41%;
Independent, 40% (which is why I’ve been writing that Indies are going right, but also going to vote Tea Party or GOTP candidates, even though they think less of both than of Dems);
Married, 39%;
65-year-olds and older, 38% (they always vote);
Non-Hispanic white, 36%;
Conservative, 23%;
Republican, 12%.
The next question, which is a bit early to ask but jumps into your mind, is: How does Pres. Obama get the voters who rate his approval below 50% back?
…as for the “Family Guy” episode video with Rush Limbaugh at the top, I simply think it’s hilarious. Considering it a laugh cocktail after digesting Gallup’s subgroup numbers.
This post has been updated.
That number amongst women is a killer. He needs a good 20 points higher on that one. These numbers are not enough to keep the house right now and I’m not sure how the sky high african american approval translates into any wins because most of their votes are already in safe districts.
Yeah, these subgroup numbers are stunning.
If Obama’s Catfood Commission opens the door for Social Security changes, beyond raising the taxed income ceiling, it’s only going to get worse.
How does Obama get his approval ratings higher? Well with retired and disabled people he could have the HHS quickly write new rules on Medicare Part B to expand the existing drug benefit in Medicare Part B
to COVER EVERY DAMN PATENTED AND GENERIC PRESCRIPTION DRUG DRUG AT 80 percent coverage and making sure no extra premium or cpverage gap gets put into this benefit. 1 hefty $96 medicare part B monthly premium appears enough, and no coverage gap for the existing drug benefit gets written in these rules.
If Ms Sebelius does this by the end of October, the RepubliKLAN party will
GET FLUSHED DOWN THE TOILET OF HISTORY WHERE THE COMMUNISTS ENDED UP.
Buying votes does not seem like a winning strategy at this point.
Let’s try some word games too: If Ms. Sebelius does this by the end of October, the Demococksuckingwhorats party will GET FLUSHED DOWN THE TOILET OF HISTORY WHERE THE COMMUNISTS ENDED UP.
I think that mine works better as the Democrats are much more closely associated with communists.
Congratulations! You’ve just won the most ridiculous comment of the day and it’s not even noon.
#1 rule in making a political argument: If you invoke Nazis, communists or fascist you’ve destined your opinion to the unhinged bin.
Not making a political argument, just mocking ‘democratz’ for his/her name calling and unprovoked mean-spiritedness.
In my post, I intimated a similarity between communists and democrats (two political parties which share a sliver of commonalities) while ‘democratz’ does the same between republicans and the KKK (one a political party and one a group founded on hate – I’m sure that ‘democratz’ would likely say that I’m repeating myself thus violating rule #1 but that seems to be de rigeur when the comments come from the left side of the political spectrum).
I’ve heard a quote somewhere about the splinter in your neighbor’s eye and the log in your own…
I do act mean spirited to those KLANSERVATIVES who act mean spirited to the poor and less fortunate by not wanting government to help the poor and less fortunate.
Who gave you the notion that Liberals, progressives acted kind and loving all the time?
I don’t at least not to dumb conservatives who have proven themselves the most boorish idiots on earth. Oh and Hitler appeared a right winger.
Don Pardo please tell this idiot PWT what he has won.
Yes, Democratz, Mr PWT has won a one way trip to Antarctica where he will pay no taxes and government will not oppress him. Enjoy your one way trip you Anti American PWT
Well, I obviously didn’t get that at all!
My apologies, PWT.
Award rescinded.
This post is so typical Taylor, no context! This reminds me of the poll numbers that came out at the beginning of the Democratic primary campaign in the fall of 2007 that showed Obama 30 points behind Hillary Clinton! Hovering just below the 50% threshold after two years of dealing with a bad economy, being race baited and called every name in the book! These are some damn good numbers!
oh, c’mon…surely, they forgot to call him SOME names
shorter Solo: with my hands in front of my eyes, you can’t see me
****How does Pres. Obama get the voters who rate his approval below 50% back?*****
How does a “fierce advocate” who just happens to be Commander-in-Chief sleep at night when hundreds of men and women are being discharged from HIS armed service for their sexual orientation? He is always talking about empathy. Where’s HIS empathy?
The answer is: Less speeches and lies and more ACTION.
That’s just one of the many things he could do to get voters back.