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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Archive | November, 2010

McClatchy: Obama Admin. Moving Away from Afghanistan 2011 Date

By Taylor Marsh on 10 November 2010

Just in time for the Republican Tea Party entrance into the foreign policy debate.

As regulars know, I have support Pres. Obama on Afghanistan from the jump. …right up until Gen. Stanley McChrystal imploded, revealing just how much trouble the U.S. policy is in. That was a freeze everything moment for me. The July 2011 date only important, because Obama was calculating towards his reelection campaign, nothing more; these arbitrary dates nothing more than a dart board thrown at the calendar, which is exactly what Bush did on Iraq withdrawal with which Obama simply complied.

If the McClatchy report is true, Pres. Obama is doing what was always likely once given the realities of what drove McChrystal to his Rolling Stone meltdown. Now that Obama is in political trouble, which he equates with having to appease the Right in order to survive, he’ll likely have friends on the Republican side that back a policy that will keep us in Afghanistan in numbers Obama formerly didn’t agree was the right policy.

McClatchy reports, Pres. Obama doesn’t have a policy problem as much as he has a perception challenge:

The Obama administration has decided to begin publicly walking away from what it once touted as key deadlines in the war in Afghanistan in an effort to de-emphasize President Barack Obama’s pledge that he’d begin withdrawing U.S. forces in July 2011, administration and military officials have told McClatchy.
The new policy will be on display next week during a conference of NATO countries in Lisbon, Portugal, where the administration hopes to introduce a timeline that calls for the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan by 2014, the year when Afghan President Hamid Karzai once said Afghan troops could provide their own security, three senior officials told McClatchy, along with others speaking anonymously as a matter of policy.
…”This administration now understands that it cannot shift Pakistani approaches to safeguarding its interests in Afghanistan with this date being perceived as a walk-away date,” the adviser said.

July 2011 may still see a shift in Afghanistan policy, regardless of what McClatchy is reporting, but it’s a cinch it won’t be a decoupling of Afghanistan from the Pakistan policy, which progressives and even some conservatives have been calling for to happen. Withdrawals of significant troop force from Afghanistan the bottom line.

It would be ironic if Democrats in Congress actually found themselves with new allies in the Tea Party members, people like Rand Paul, Jim DeMint, even Marco Rubio, but even more so on the House side. But that would depend on what their definition of conservative really means. We’re about to find out.

The possible McClatchy foreshadowing of a “walk away” by Pres. Obama on the July 2011 shift in policy signals something else. It’s simply more proof of the Iraq fairy tale that won him the nomination. Because as president, Mr. Obama has shown absolutely no strength of character whatsoever that would have been needed to be the only Senate member running for president to vote against authorization for the Iraq war.

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‘Yes We Can’ in Smithereens

By Taylor Marsh on 09 November 2010

The social movement politics that some of his most fervent followers ascribed to him—the idea of electing a “post-partisan” president as the leader not of a nation or even of a political party but of a personalized social movement—has failed. – “Live By the Movement, Die By the Movement,” by Sean Wilentz

There’s a reason the Obama loyalists are so cranky. The winds of hope died down and all they’ve been left with is a politician without a clue or a plan, standing naked before America who is disgusted with the remnants. People who are drowning on their mortgages, health insurance, scared they’re going to lose their jobs, then have to disappoint their kids. Meanwhile, Pres. Obama is trying to pack his ego in ice. It’s not near enough so far and he’s not got much time to get it together. More from Mr. Wilentz:

Fundamental to the social movement model is a conception of American political history in which movements, and not presidents, are the true instigators for change. Presidents are merely reactive. They are not the main protagonists. Obama himself endorsed this conception constantly on the campaign trail, and has repeated it often as president, proclaiming that “real change comes from the bottom up.” Supposedly, all of our progressive presidents have been preternaturally cautious, self-interested men who originated nothing themselves. Only forceful pressure from outside movements led them to undertake the audacious efforts for which history has wrongly given them credit. Hence, Abraham Lincoln would never have become the Great Emancipator had the abolitionists not pushed him to do so. Hence, pressure from the radical left and organized labor forced FDR into launching the New Deal.
A good example of this way of thinking arose during the 2008 Democratic primaries, when Obama, campaigning in social movement mode, sought to claim the mantle of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. by celebrating oratorical force over grubby politics. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, noted that it took a president, Lyndon B. Johnson, to push through Congress the civil rights reforms for which Dr. King had fought, as well as the programs of the Great Society, and she pointed out that the job being contested for was president of the United States, not head of a social movement. For this, she got called a racist. …

Pres. Obama and his loyal supporters now find themselves in a hostile world where the campaign that was devised cannot help. That’s because it wasn’t driven by ideology, concrete policy prescriptions, or even a Democratic dream. Obama was always a notion based on emotion.

… The civil rights movement’s eyes were on the prizes of desegregation and voting rights. Cesar Chavez’s United Farm Workers, where Ganz learned so much about political organizing, also had its emotive side—summed up in its slogan, “Si, Se Puede,” which the Obama campaign directly appropriated in translation, “Yes, We Can”—but it also had in mind the recognition of organized fieldhands and the negotiation of fair contracts involving wages. The point of the Obama campaign-as-movement was conceived differently: exciting people with the thrill of empowerment, and collective self-empowerment, by electing to the White House a community organizer who believed in “hope” and “change.” Why electing Obama was imperative required no explanation among the faithful; it was enough to get the spirit, share the spirit, and revel in the candidate’s essence, which, by definition, no other candidate possessed. The leader was the program.
Sketchy on specifics, such a movement would have been practically useless after Obama’s election, except as a cult-of-personality mass cheerleading squad to back the president over any decision that he chose to endorse.

Beyond emotions there was the persona, the grandeur of Barack Obama himself, which was always meant to be the draw, his very personality the reason for the ruckus. It’s why he shunned ideology, so he could make anyone’s policies his own even amidst conflict between two opposing forces, Democrats and Republicans, playing the Wizard of Washington. It’s why I’ve gone back time and time again to the interview he did with George Stephanopoulos in May 2007, where he revealed what his game plan for the presidency would look like. Naturally, being a creature of his own orbit, Mr. Obama assumed that the two representative parties would sit at his side and allow him to craft a compromise so everyone would walk away happy, accomplishments for everyone.

Working-class America is choking on his hubris.

Obama in office upheld the community organizers’ post-partisan credo, trying to bring together opposing forces and finding common ground, in part under the pressure of the organizer’s own reasonableness. But that was not how it worked in Washington during the past two years; nor had it worked that way for 20 years. A ruthless and right-wing Republican Party spurned talk of common ground as a sign of weakness, and did everything it could to ensure that Obama’s presidency would fail. But oblivious to the long-standing internal dynamics of the Republican Party, Obama continued to vaunt his brand of “post-partisanship.”

Pres. Obama’s naivete has caused a calamity, the list long, the latest DADT, where we’re back to an Executive Order or bust, something that could have been done months and months ago, but Mr. Obama didn’t want to take a stand and possibly alienate… whomever. It can be seen on ducking a foreclosure moratorium, or the middle class tax cut fight only to end up caving to Republicans, sending a message of weakness that has been evident from his lack of convictions all along, because he came to a hostile city without a compass that could map his own mind. It’s why the Tea Party was able to take so many Democrats out last Tuesday in a political bloodbath of historic proportions.

Barack Obama stood for nothing at a time when people were looking for answers from leaders who knew where they were going, so it’s not like they had a choice on whom to follow.

Of course, all of this can be altered. But a different Barack Obama would have to show up to do it.

“Obama’s doomed theory of politics” is the subtitle to Mr. Wilentz’s piece for good reasons. Unless Mr. Obama and his team admit he’s failed utterly and completely, turning to take on the politics and his new political normal, while finding the inner Chicago street fighter who took out Alice Palmer, Hillary Clinton and John McCain, his presidency is doomed as well.

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Extending Bush Tax Cuts is Obama Politics as Usual

By Taylor Marsh on 09 November 2010

With a Democratic majority in Congress during the lame-duck session, Obama still has the upper hand. But yet he caved to Republicans offering them a short-term extension of the Bush tax cuts, with a long-term middle class tax cut plan. Rep. Eric Cantor rejected it. Why shouldn’t he? There is little evidence Pres. Obama will fight back on economic policy, let alone Democratic principles.

Pres. Obama is not going to win anyone over by appeasing Republicans on taxes. But the politics as usual game may make him do it, which will send a message to Tea Party Republicans that he can be rolled.

Republicans have their patter down and they don’t care if the Bush tax cuts are paid for or not.

The Obama administration’s hopes of reaching a tax deal with Republicans that would decouple rates on the rich from the middle class appear dead. House GOP Whip Eric Cantor (Va.) threw cold water on the proposed plan, which would temporarily extend tax cuts for the wealthy while permanently extending tax cuts for the middle class. “Taxes shouldn’t be going up on anybody right now,” Cantor said.

There’s also a notion out there that the Republicans “win either way.” That’s only true because Pres. Obama won’t fight for real economic policy over political preening and refuse to extend the Bush tax cuts. He’s too weak to argue the economic lunacy of tax cuts for the upper 2%, preferring to play into the political narrative, and because Pres. Obama will not stand on any line he makes it possible for Republicans “win either way.”

The election is over and it’s time to send a message to the middle class. Too bad Pres. Obama doesn’t play hardball with anyone but the Left.

If the American people telegraphed anything in the 2004 election with Bush, as well as the midterm elections just last week, it’s they they will follow anyone who stands on a line and says straight out what they stand for, and will turn their backs on a politician who looks like he doesn’t know what he’s doing.

From James Carville’s group, Democracy Corp, who always wanted the tax cut fight before the election, as did I, we get the midterm message from voters:

What Message Voters Were Sending

Make no mistake about the seriousness of what the voters said on Election Day. Voters expressed their deep discontent – voting against the Democrats and the Obama agenda and very conscious that they were seeking to end Democratic control of the Congress.

* Voters wanted to punish Democrats. Voters were angry over an economy stuck at 10 percent unemployment and economic policies that apparently failed to move the jobs numbers.
* They were angrier still at the lack of focus on jobs, as evident in the year-long struggle over health care.
* The president and Democrats offered no economic framework, economic vision, or campaign message appropriate to the scale of the crisis and that would provide voters with context for the spending, bailouts, and debt.
* The Democrats lost white non-college voters in general, and working class voters in particular, who were put off by the Democrats’ assertions about economic progress – they were not certain that Democrats stood with them, rather than Wall Street. Many of these were voters cut out of a Reagan-Democratic mold and who rejected Bush’s economy in the last two elections – they have to be won back. The road back to the industrial Midwest runs through their communities.
* And voters were angry with the continuing partisan warfare, the lack of change in Washington and lack of economic progress – at a time of acute crisis.

So, voters had plenty to say. As Whit Ayers notes in his memo, independent voters were the carriers of that message, cutting their vote for Democrats by 13 points, giving the Republicans an 18-point margin.

Voters recognize weak from a mile away. So do Republicans. The only way to change the narrative is to draw a line and begin building a new reputation.

David Stockman, former Reagan budget director, on “This Week,” who is against extending the Bush tax cuts:

But it’s just common sense fact that, when you raise the rates, you get more revenue. Normally, it’s a bad thing to do. But we are in such dire shape that we have no choice but to accept the negative trade-off of some harm to the economy to start paying our bills. Otherwise, we’re dependent on the Chinese, we’re dependent on OPEC, we’re dependent on a bunch of hedge fund guys to buy our debt, and this game is about over. … Two years after the crisis on Wall Street, it has been announced that bonuses this year will be $144 billion, the highest in history. That’s who’s going to get this tax cut on the top, you know, 2 percent of the population. They don’t need a tax cut. They don’t deserve it. And, therefore, what we have to do is focus on Main Street, and that means getting our house in order fiscally, not tax cuts that we can’t afford.

If Pres. Obama extends the Bush tax cuts it will send a bigger message to Republicans than simply on taxes. It will also signal that Democrats can’t do simple math and are not in the least serious about economic policy; remembering that ducking the tax fight earlier was how they got in this mess.

The transactional presidency of Barack Obama drubs on.

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Palin’s Reagan Gambit

By Taylor Marsh on 09 November 2010

“Is it Palin’s fault for Rossi not winning his Senate bid? Or Raese, Fiorina, McMahon, Buck, & Angle (who she didn’t endorse in the primary)?” SarahPAC’s Rebecca Mansour asked, adding, “Sarah Palin didn’t cost the GOP the Senate. We were nowhere near winning control of the Senate. Deal with it Beltway GOP.” – TRENDING: GOP Rep: ‘Palin cost us control of the Senate’

What to do about Sarah? That’s what the Republican boys’ club seems to be asking. Their tactics so far are obvious and heavy handed. Meanwhile, Sarah just keeps on building on.

Ronnie came from Hollywood, which made him accessible to Americans across the country. It looks like with Sarah Palin’s TLC/Discover show this coming Sunday she hopes a little of that will wear off. Her negatives are so high that she has to try something.

From the New Yorker:

Bundled with the news of Palin’s upcoming show, which débuts November 14th, was the eyebrow-raising fact that it would be produced by Mark Burnett, who created “Survivor” and “The Apprentice.” Burnett’s mastery of the reality-TV formula would keep the show from being a certain kind of disaster but would also keep it from being truly revealing. And what could Palin’s agenda possibly be? Supposedly, it was to show us the wonders of Alaska (the show is called “Sarah Palin’s Alaska,” after all), to acquaint us with the state’s resources and its people, and, to some extent, with her own family. Why she thought that was a good idea, considering that she complained regularly about the media’s intrusion into her family life when she was John McCain’s running mate in 2008 (while, at the same time, frequently putting her children on display), is a mystery. Moreover, you might ask, how seriously will people take her as a political candidate—a Presidential candidate—once she has participated in a reality show? Karl Rove, the executive producer of the Republican Party, wondered the same thing. A couple of weeks ago, he said to Britain’s Daily Telegraph, “With all due candor, appearing on your own reality show . . . I am not certain how that fits in the American calculus of ‘That helps me see you in the Oval Office.’ ” Of course, Rove has reasons to want to undermine Palin, and this was an obvious opportunity to do so, but if Palin fails to win elective office in the future it probably won’t be because she did a reality show; it will be because of real-world reality—a shift in the political climate or a strong opponent.

Karl Rove is powerless to stop Sarah Palin, and all the whining about Sarah losing the Senate for the GOP, which was never in play, is painfully obvious.

The only thing that will stop Palin is another person from the Right who resonates more strongly than Sarah. It’s obvious the GOP boys’ club don’t think they’ve got anyone. Acting out won’t change that fact.

What’s really ironic is that with Obama’s brand crashing, women tilting to the GOP, and the general disaffection of voters with Democrats, nothing can make Republicans try to craft a bridge to Sarah Palin. Part of it is because of her experience in ’08, with her own stubbornness against the establishment dug in. While the GOP simply doesn’t respect her. Considering the power of her grass roots supporters it’s a bigger problem for the Right than anything Obama can construct. Because if the establishment and Sarah Palin could make peace, with Sarah willing to do some rehabilitation of her own, especially on foreign policy and economics, there is a marketing plan not unlike how George W. Bush won that would carry Palin an awfully long way. Could she beat Pres. Obama?

It wasn’t the Republican establishment that came up with “death panels,” a phrase that ignited a backlash against what became known as “Obamacare,” which inspired seniors, among other voters, to tilt Republicans in states across the country in the 2010 midterms. That most of the Left and Obama loyalists scoffed at the effectiveness of such a squeal just further illustrated the tone deaf nature of Democrats towards the Tea Party, who kicked Pres. Obama’s ass in a historic midterm election that changed the power in enough states to now make 2012 a nightmare for Democrats. That the Senate will be in play in 2012, with Republicans having a very good chance to take a majority, is another subject all together.

Nobody in the White House believed Obama could be humiliated so thoroughly as he was last Tuesday, two years after he won a historic victory and people pronounced conservatism dead. If George W. Bush can beat Democrats twice, with the establishment behind her there is no reason Sarah Palin can’t at the very least make a good run of it, though without a lot of help and some rebranding it’s never going to happen.

That’s the reason Sarah went reality show on TLC/Discovery. She’s taking a page out of Ronnie’s playbook hoping it might help. It’s going to take a lot more than roaming Alaska. The Republican establishment knows this all too well and they have no intention of helping.

This post has been update.

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The Dems’ Inner O

By Taylor Marsh on 08 November 2010

Congressional Democrats consider him distant and blame him for their historic defeat on Tuesday. Democratic state party leaders scoff at what they see as an inattentive and hapless political operation. Democratic lobbyists feel maligned by his holier-than-thou take on their profession. … But many Democrats privately say they are skeptical that Obama is self-aware enough to make the sort of dramatic changes they feel are needed — in his relations with other Democrats or in his very approach to the job. – President Obama isolated ahead of 2012

POLITICO got hit from all sides for this story today, which was filled with anonymous sources and anecdotes. Unfortunately for the critics of the reporting there is a thread of truth running through it that anyone can recognize. It’s how a lot of regular people feel about Pres. Obama, including that the loss on Tuesday was as much about him as anything. That Obama loyalists are circling the wagons instead of clamoring for Pres. Obama to exact his own kind of change starting with his own White House is not surprising, but it is part of the problem.

It’s always ironic, however, when an Obama blog embraces their own inner O. The arrogance of Pres. Obama can be seen in the snippet below. Like icon, like follower:

For a week shy of 10 years, and especially since we opened our Washington Bureau in 2009, we’ve tried to stick to a basic mantra about our coverage of Washington, DC: in it but not of it. It’s the motto of TPMDC. We want to be completely immersed in the facts and details and hints and allegations of the capital because covering politics is our core competency. But we never want to be part of it, identified with it, swept up in the histrionics, conventional wisdom and fads of it. That is not an easy balance to keep. And I won’t say we’ve always managed it perfectly. But that’s our goal. …

There was no one that was swept up more thoroughly in the Obama mystique, while ignoring real policy prescriptions and competence questions, than Josh Marshall. The bold section above reveals hubris that’s embarrassingly lacking in self-awareness from TPM’s founder, something that mimics the man they love no matter what he does or how his rhetoric and actions demoralize the Democratic Party and what it’s stood for since F.D.R.

Marshall not only bought into the Washington “histrionics, conventional wisdom and fads of it” in 2008, but he spewed them by the page load. Seeing him go through the exercise of exalting his own efforts is stunning, but it does reflect the general problem with Obama and his loyalists. That the greatest cheerleaders have the same blind side is how Democrats got in this mess.

Turning on POLITICO, who I agree is the very notion of conventional wisdom many times, would be understandable if for one thing. What they’re writing in this article rings true. Ask any disgruntled Democrat who stayed home and didn’t vote this election or held his/her nose to vote, but didn’t like the experience. Ask women who voted Republican this time, or Independents, or even seniors. That list of anti Dem midterm voters should be enough to prove the point.

Democrats lost the rust belt, industrial Midwest, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, 19 state legislatures… the list goes on and on. So the real question is why people don’t believe the POLITICO story, because it fits the carnage delivered against Democrats on Tuesday by some of the voters they lost.

There are a lot of people in denial right now, because they just can’t believe how badly the midterm elections were screwed up and that Pres. Obama is mostly to blame. It’s even harder to face because there’s no sign so far that he’s going to do anything about it but tack further right.

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Pres. Obama Channels His Inner Republican

By Taylor Marsh on 08 November 2010

Pres. Obama’s interview on “60 Minutes” last night was something else. As we await the Democratic cave-in on the Bush tax cuts, which is not only horrific monetary policy but proves the current crop of Dems can’t do simple math, we got Mr. Obama running as fast as he can away from what it means to be a Democrat.

KROFT: No one at the news conference yesterday asked you about the Tea Party. According to the exit polls, four out of ten voters on Tuesday said they supported the movement. How seriously do you take the Tea Party, and will it make the task of finding common ground with the Republican Party more difficult?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, it’ll be interesting to see how it evolves. We have a long tradition in this country of a desire for limited government, the suspicion of the federal government, of a concern that government spends too much money. You know? I mean, that’s as American as apple pie. And although, you know, there’s a new label to this, I mean those sentiments are ones that a lot of people support and give voice to. Including a lot of Democrats.

This is rich. The person who is supposed to be the Democratic Party leader using right-wing talking points to destroy the purpose of government by not even making a case for it. Instead he props up the limited government is as “American as apple pie” malarkey that could have come from any Tea Party activist, including Rand Paul.

Next Mr. Obama spouted his other right-wing belief that people have a “suspicion of the federal government,” instead of providing a reasoning for the purpose of government, especially in hard times.

There has never been a more reckless and destructive political strategy coming from a Democratic White House.

Jim Webb gets it, even if he’s conservative on way too many issues. But when it comes to economics he’s dead on:

“I’ve been warning them,” Webb says, sighing, resting his chin on his hand. “I’ve been having discussions with our leadership ever since I’ve been up here. I decided to run as a Democrat because I happen to strongly believe in Jacksonian democracy. There needs to be one party that very clearly represents the interests of working people … I’m very concerned about the transactional nature of the Democratic Party. Its evolved too strongly into interest groups rather than representing working people, including small business people.”

Looking at his own reelection in 2012, assuming he runs again, Webb has to be concerned.

But maybe all of this capitulation and further compromising to the right will pave the way for Obama’s reelection in 2012. The story goes like this: Republicans will overreach making Obama look like a grown-up, so voters will give him the nod. At the very least, Pres. Obama gets to finally reveal his Republican political heart.

Consider this a preview on one scenario looking to 2012. Voters will have two exact Republican replicas from which to choose, Republican-lite (Obama) versus Republican hard right (Romney or Daniels or Thune or Palin, etc., etc.). Considering there is no Republican in name worth voting for yet, maybe the Republican in Democratic clothing will win the day. It won’t do anything for the Democratic Party, but that’s not Obama’s primary focus, as was proven Tuesday. It’s to win a second term at all cost, any cost, whatever it takes. It’s all about Obama.

At least you now know why Mr. Obama couldn’t make the Democratic case in the midterms. He won’t sell it, because he doesn’t believe in it.

People doing post-midterm analysis this Sunday were all talking about the only factor in the elections being the economy. There is no doubt whatsoever that the economy is the number one thing on people’s minds, but the Obama-Pelosi Democratic health care debacle was up their on the emotion scale. The other issue is character and competence, leadership ability, which was tied to every voter, though the White House won’t admit it. Pres. Obama failed all three, which is why Independent, seniors and women fled to the Right, with the rest of the ’08 Obama coalition not showing up. They don’t believe Obama has the leadership chops and so far they’ve been proven correct.

People aren’t going to vote for any politician who doesn’t stand for something and look like he or she knows where they’re leading. In dire times that goes double.

This post has been updated.

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Pelosi and Reid Should Step Down as Leaders

By Taylor Marsh on 08 November 2010

Why Democrats don’t see this is beyond me, but I’m not surprised. It’s in line with their general tone deafness of the midterms when they thought talking about foreign money “stealing” elections would be a good closer. That not addressing the real need for a foreclosure moratorium might send a signal to the middle class. The fact that Pres. Obama and Dems are actually considering caving on the Bush tax cuts. You know, because actually standing for something, including solid monetary policy over political cowardice, is harder. Because when you can’t make the argument it’s easier to just go along.

The New York Times weighed in today:

Ms. Pelosi announced on Friday that she would seek the post of House minority leader. That job is not a good match for her abilities in maneuvering legislation and trading votes, since Democrats will no longer be passing bills in the House. What they need is what Ms. Pelosi has been unable to provide: a clear and convincing voice to help Americans understand that Democratic policies are not bankrupting the country, advancing socialism or destroying freedom.
If Ms. Pelosi had been a more persuasive communicator, she could have batted away the ludicrous caricature of her painted by Republicans across the country as some kind of fur-hatted commissar jamming her diktats down the public’s throat. Both Ms. Pelosi and Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, are inside players who seem to visibly shrink on camera when defending their policies, rarely connecting with the skeptical independent voters who raged so loudly on Tuesday.

Speaker Pelosi has been a formidable House advocate for Pres. Obama. The trouble is that advocacy of Obama’s health care preferences was a prime cause a historic Democratic defeat last Tuesday. Not only did 56% of Independents vote Republican, but 59% of seniors did too. Women basically split the vote with Republicans and in some states tilted Republican, which is why 19 state legislatures switched too. Under Pres. Obama, Pelosi, Reid and the DNC (aka OFA), the Republicans now control 26 legislatures at a time of redistricting and reapportionment, losing more seats in the House since Harry Truman.

We could only be so lucky that last week was like ’94, but it was far, far worse.

On the bright side, the Republicans and Tea Party may come to blows, making Pres. Obama look sane.

But nothing will stop what Republicans are going to run on in 2012, which is saying to voters if they want to repeal “Obamacare,” as they call it, you have to defeat Barack Obama.

Speaker Pelosi is a great money raiser for Democrats, but there is something greater than cash… Oh, wait. In today’s politics, no there isn’t. Never mind. Long live minority leader Pelosi.

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Welcome to The New Education Normal

By Taylor Marsh on 07 November 2010

The film “Waiting for Superman” changed the education conversation forever. Former Mayor Fenty and Michelle Rhee played a huge role in the debate and for their stance and courage one got sacked, the other fled. Enter the conservative and the Tea Party factor after the midterms and what you’ve got is a new education normal. The status quo has been blown to bits.

I’m a union girl, but I also know that in some companies they don’t work, but still keep non-union places honest. I know from my own life that a great teacher can change a student’s life and that our failing system isn’t their fault. I’m also in favor of charter schools. None of this should surprise anyone. I’m a modern feminist, but I don’t belong to NOW, NARAL or Planned Parenthood. The fact is our education system has failed and it’s time to put all means on deck. This includes the teachers unions, business, public and private efforts, and teachers, doing whatever it takes to bring education back in America.

Lawrence O’Donnell has stated he’s on the board of a charter school; Alec Baldwin raved about “Waiting for Superman” on Huffington Post; with charter schools now supported by liberals who have long been allies of teachers unions and remain so, but champion any method or model that can work. Not all teachers are good; not all charter schools are either.

Political battles are won before the main stage battle begins. In politics, nothing matters if you can engage people’s emotions. That’s exactly what’s happened with “Waiting for Superman.” The teachers unions got outflanked.

Critics of the film say teachers are being demonized. I just didn’t see it. Anywhere. In fact, I don’t understand the defensiveness of teachers in the press, whether traditional or new media. As for the teachers unions, they’re on the defensive for good reason. They missed their own “Waiting for Superman” marketing moment.

Geoffrey Canada talks about teacher tenure as easy to get as breathing in “Waiting for Superman.” You can’t be much more alienating than that, but he also states unequivocally that he loves his teachers and needs them to be great. I also agree that if you make a great school the community will change, because it becomes the hub, the nucleus of life’s thinking and creating revolution.

Couple the film with the new conservative politics coming to Washington, which Obama helped plant, and the rise of people like Gov. Chris Christie, and what you’ve got is a powerful push from the Right, nothing the Democrats ever planned or imagined.

Just one of the many critical pieces on the film, the Nation offered this in “Grading ‘Waiting for Superman’:

[...] The movie, though, does not attempt any such balancing act. It presents Rhee as a heroine whose hands are tied by the union. Yet in April, after Rhee’s administration finally collaborated with education experts and the union to create a new, detailed teacher evaluation system tied to the district’s curriculum, the Washington Teachers Union and AFT agreed to a contract that includes many of Rhee’s priorities, including her merit-pay plan and an unprecedented weakening of tenure protections.
The film doesn’t acknowledge that Bill Gates, who began his philanthropic career deeply skeptical of teachers unions, has lately embraced them as essential players in the fight for school improvement. His foundation finances a program in Boston called Turnaround Teacher Teams, which works with the district and its teachers union to move cohorts of experienced, highly rated instructors into high-needs schools, while giving them extra training and support.
In July Gates spoke at the American Federation of Teachers convention in Seattle, saying, “If reforms aren’t shaped by teachers’ knowledge and experience, they’re not going to succeed.” A few protesters booed, but he received several standing ovations. Members of the Gates Foundation staff later met with AFT executives, and the two teams discussed ways to collaborate, despite lingering differences on issues like teacher pensions.
When I spoke with Weingarten in late August at her office on Capitol Hill, she was livid about Waiting for Superman, referring to its charter school triumphalism as an example of “magic dust.” “There’s always pressure to find the one thing that’s going to be the shortcut,” she said. But she was ecstatic about improved relations with Gates and angry that, in her view, the mainstream media have ignored the news of their rapprochement. “The media want conflict,” she said. “They don’t let us tell our story.”
Younger teachers are often the driving force behind union-backed reforms. In Denver in 2008, a group of them launched Denver Teachers for Change, which grew into a 350-member coalition dedicated to supporting performance pay and other student achievement–focused reforms while preserving organized labor’s voice at the negotiating table. In Colorado earlier this year, the AFT state affiliate signed on to the state’s Race to the Top application, which promised to make student achievement data count for up to 50 percent of a teacher’s evaluation score, potentially totally reforming the process by which tenure is granted. …

Ms. Weingarten’s “magic dust” comment is as offensive as Mr. Canada’s “breathing” baloney. This is also not about “triumphalism.”

At least the teachers unions don’t have Michelle Rhee to kick around any longer. However, Mayor-elect Vincent C. Gray has promised that reforms launched by Ms. Rhee will continue saying, “We cannot and will not return to the days of incrementalism.”

Pres. Obama is a supporter of what was done by Fenty and Rhee in D.C., as well as what has been done by Canada. With new conservative and Tea Party energy in Washington he will have allies, so that education may become an issue where agreement can be found.

It will leave another part of the once powerful Democratic coalition, the teachers unions, feeling a cold wind.

Political battles are won by those who incite the strongest emotional response. “Waiting for Superman” has become the catalyst for change in America at a time of dire national challenge. Pres. Obama, along with the help of the conservative tide his Democratic policy and message failures have ushered in, will do the rest.

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Your Sunday News Round-Up: Fall Back

By Stacy on 07 November 2010

Good morning! I hope everyone enjoyed their extra hour of sleep this morning. I know I won’t be enjoying the darkness at 4:30p.m. every afternoon.

On this day in history, November 7,1944, President Franklin D. Roosevelt won a fourth term in office, defeating Thomas E. Dewey.

Some links to go with your morning coffee/tea:

~I mentioned this in the comment section of Wonk’s fabulous post yesterday but I thought I’d bring it up here- the Democrats are starting to have a gay problem. Exit polls showed that 31% of voters who self-identified as glbt cast their lot for the GOP.

~Strange but true. A professional couple (read upper income) wanted to buy a unique, energy-efficient home outside of Washington D.C. but couldn’t get a mortgage lender- not because they were at risk of default or had bad credit but because the house was…round. I’d live in this house in a NY minute.

~I wanted Zenyatta to win the Breeder’s Cup. So did millions of other people.

~After the election, Peggy Noonan took aim not only at Barack Obama, but at Sarah Palin for comparing herself to Reagan. You know how ‘ole Peggy gets about Reagan! After all, she knew Ronald Reagan and she wants Palin and her fellow Tea Partiers to know “honey, you’re no Ronald Reagan!” (my words, not Peggy’s).

~In today’s WaPo Frank Luntz gives a self-serving interpretation of What Voters Want.

~In case you missed it, on Friday’s ‘Morning Joe” Lawrence O’Donnell and Glenn Greenwald went at each other with such ferocity I thought they either needed to take it outside or in the alternative, get a room. You can see the video here. No fighting!

~~Hey, in case you were vacationing in a cave for the past week, Keith Olbermann got sent to his room for a time out after it was revealed he gave money to Democratic candidates without getting permission from ~~mom and dad~~ Phil Griffin! Then MSNBC tapped Chris Hayes, editor of ‘The Nation,’ to be the fill-in for an unspecified period of time. You know Hayes…he always fills in for everybody- Maddow, Olbermann, etc. But it turns out Hayes has contributed to Democrats too so he was pulled! But here’s the funny thing, CNBC’s right-wing crank Larry Kudlow gave money to a Republican candidate in 2009- did heget permission from NBC prior to doing so? In fact, most of the CNBC line-up gave political contributions to candidates. So now the question is, do these NBC rules even apply to MSNBC? And if so, do they also apply to CNBC? Murky, no doubt about it. But inquiring minds want to know!

~Nancy Pelosi wants another bite at the apple.

~Obama is in India as part of a ridiculously long trip to Asia which will surely backfire politically. Why? Because even though the trip has been planned for forever and has nothing to do with the midterm election results, that won’t matter to his more vociferous critics on the right. Also, given underwhelming press conference the day after the “shallacking” it does sort of leave the impression, even if untrue, that he’s high-tailing it out of DC at a time when he should be rolling up his sleeves and figuring out what the hell he’s going to do now that those car keys he didn’t want to give to the Republicans, are now in the hands of… the Republicans. The White House is stressing this trip is all about jobs, jobs, jobs. On Saturday he announced $10 billion in new contracts for U.S. exports to India.

~China has put it’s most famous artist under house arrest for criticizing the government. If China wants to call attention to it’s ruthless authoritarian regime, this is a fantastic way to do it. The artist is Ai Weiwei and he happens to be a co-designer of the 2008 Beijing olympic stadium (aka the Bird’s Nest).

~While speaking to Indian college students today Obama said he needs to make some “midcourse corrections” but he didn’t go into specifics.

~Charles Ferguson, writing over at Foreign Policy, argues that Obama needs to get rid of his economic team. I concur. He has an interesting take on it though and the article is a good read.

~Israel is ratcheting up its rhetoric against Iran. It’s clear Israel wants either a) a green light to attack Iran or b) the U.S. to do it for them. The problem is, it would not solve the problem of a potentially nuclear Iran and worse, it could totally backfire and strengthen Iran’s position in the region.

~Along those lines, ~If you think a GOP controlled House won’t change or undermine Obama’s foreign policy, think again.

~In an unbelievable turn of events that clearly portends trouble ahead for the repeal of DADT, the new Marine Corps commandant Gen. James Amos told the media that DADT shouldn’t be repealed. Amos has a major role in the Defense Department’s review of the policy change and in justifying his position he falls back on stupid stereotypes and reinforces the military’s obsession with sleeping quarters and housing (and showers). The timing of these comments is interesting given the GOP now controls the House. Gen. Amos also talked to the press about Afghanistan and makes it very clear he that doesn’t give a damn about any namsy-pamsy timetable for withdrawal because the Marines are staying dammit! I continue to be amazed at how the top brass shows absolutely no respect for the Commander in Chief. Whenever they don’t like Obama’s policies they run to the media and run their mouth or they leak memos in an attempt, usually successful, to paint him into a corner (see Afghanistan). I would respectfully argue that the military becomes emboldened when wars drag on and on- their power increases and they start to openly rebel against the civilian leadership. And when that happens, they need to be reigned in quickly and decisively.

~I highly recommend reading this 2010 report which looked at how the 25 nations which allow gay people to serve openly have fared after the laws/policies banning gays were overturned. I’ll give you the short version- Many actually believe morale has increased and the best results were achieved when the policy reversal was implemented quickly and consistently (read: with minimal drama, second guessing, attempts to undermine the policy change and hand-wringing).

~Myanmar held civilian elections for the first time in 20 years. It’s too bad they were sham elections and nobody can do anything about it.

~Nick Kristoff has a commentary over at the NYT which basically points out that the GOP economic “plan” of extending all of the Bush tax cuts, makes no economic sense. It didn’t work before and it isn’t going to work now.

~Haiti was thankfully not hit as hard by Hurricane Tomas as some feared it would be, but they were still hit hard enough to to cause even more suffering in a country that has had more than it’s share of disaster and heartbreak. The situation is going from bad to worse as cholera continues to spread and the living situation for millions of Haitians is just simply not improving. It’s a great credit to their character that large-scale violence hasn’t broken out.

~I don’t want to ruin your Sunday (if I haven’t already), but Rep. Joe Barton could be poised to take over as Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee although some are saying he is going about it the wrong way. If you want to see an example of just how badly the GOP wants to reward Wall Street and Big Business for their malfeasance, look no further than this article which describes the letter Barton sent to his colleagues, begging for their support.

~Lion Man.

~Here is how the GOP plans to undermine health reform and keep the issue in play for 2012.

~And here are a few more details about what the GOP plans to do in terms of spending cuts. Keep in mind that behind all this talk of spending cuts and numbers and percentages and debt ceilings, there are real human beings who will bear the brunt of this. It’s not some abstraction. That obvious fact seems to have been lost in all the heated rhetoric and lousy messaging leading up to the midterms. The more I read, the angrier I get at the Democrats.

The End.

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My $0.02: Saturday is for Sisterhood

By Wonk the Vote on 06 November 2010

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton receives a Hongi (Maori Greeting) during a welcome ceremony at Parliament on November 4, 2010 in Wellington, New Zealand. (H/T to stacyx at secretaryclinton.wordpress.com)

Good morning, everyone. Wonk the Vote here, with my Saturday offerings. First up, some odds and ends from down under in New Zealand, where Secretary Clinton has been traveling the past few days. She fielded a couple questions yesterday about the chances of her running for president again. The following tidbit was from an interview on Friday, with Guyon Espiner of TV New Zealand (link goes to the Foggy Bottom transcript):

QUESTION: A final question: You’re in a country which has had two female prime ministers. You’re heading to a country –
SECRETARY CLINTON: (Laughter.)
QUESTION: — that has a female prime minister. Is your country ready for a female president?
SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, I hope so. It should be and –
QUESTION: Could that be you?
SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, not me, but it will be someone. And it is nice coming to countries that have already proven that they can elect a woman to the highest governing positions that they have in their systems.

…and from another interview on Friday, this time with Duncan Garner of New Zealand’s TV3 (once again, the link goes to the State Department’s transcript):

QUESTION: Just looking long term, do you still rule out standing for top office, for president –
SECRETARY CLINTON: Yes, I –
QUESTION: — even as going as far as 2016?
SECRETARY CLINTON: Oh yes, yes. I’m very pleased to be doing what I’m doing as Secretary of State.

Hey, don’t shoot me, I’m just the messenger.

At any rate, it looks like it doesn’t matter whether Hillary ever runs for president again or not–she will forever be confused for one. From Thursday, via 3 News in NZ:

“So anyway, President Clinton…” Mr Key said before bowing his head with a broad smile on his face
Prime Minister John Key made a slight gaffe in closing US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s press conference this afternoon – referring to her as ‘President Clinton’.
“So anyway, President Clinton…” Mr Key said before bowing his head, a broad smile on his face and mumbled something inaudible.
“Secretary Clinton… close…” he continued before concluding the conference.
Ms Clinton saw the humour in Mr Key’s gaffe, covering her face with her hand and smiling along with Mr Key while those gathered laughed.

Oh, and this next story was the highlight of my Hillary reading this week — it was from Monday, not in New Zealand but at a townhall in Cambodia with the youth there. I love the way Hillary connects with the grassroots in every country she visits. Here was one of the questions posed to Madame Secretary (via state.gov’s transcript):

QUESTION: Wow, I’m so excited. Good morning, good afternoon. (Laughter.) I would love to hear your own experience since you (inaudible) how to become very successful and powerful like you, because you are my idol, actually. (Applause.)

Another… this one just made my day:

QUESTION: Good afternoon, Madam Secretary. I am (inaudible) I am from (inaudible). So I would like to ask you two questions, so I think there are a lot of challenges(inaudible) so I would like you to share about the techniques to (inaudible) and the technique to win the (inaudible) with the negotiations.
SECRETARY CLINTON: I didn’t understand the question.
MODERATOR: He would like to understand what is your skill in order to win the debate and also in negotiations.
SECRETARY CLINTON: Oh, oh, just in general? In general?
QUESTION: Your secret personally (inaudible). (Laughter.)

What a smart kid to ask Hillary that question. Hillary is a debate pro. Always focused like a laser. She connects policy to people and people to policy. She doesn’t waste time on word salads or empty burrito rhetoric.

If you want to know Hillary’s secrets to success and debating, go read the transcript!

And, in case you did not know, here is where Hillary is today (via state.gov):

Hillary and Julia on October 30, 2010 in Hanoi, Vietnam at the 17th ASEAN Summit
On November 6, Secretary Clinton will travel to Australia to join U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, and Australian Defense Minister Stephen Smith in Melbourne for the 25th anniversary of the annual Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) to discuss regional and global security issues. Secretary Clinton will also meet with Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

I can’t wait to get news and photos of the latest meeting between Hillary and Julia.

Earlier in the week, the Australian had this to say about their meeting in Hanoi — “Julia and Hillary get to know each other“:

Julia Gillard is in Kuala Lumpur today to talk about her regional processing centre. Ahead of the meetings in Malaysia, the PM held a brief meeting with US secretary of state Hillary Clinton on her trip to Vietnam, a week before the bilateral AUSMIN meeting in Melbourne.
Phillip Hudson writes that Ms Gillard and Ms Clinton will spend next Sunday together in Melbourne to discuss Afghanistan, regional security and, in their own words, have some fun.
“An enthusiastic US Secretary of State told the Herald Sun she was looking forward to her visit to Melbourne.
“I cannot wait to get there. I was just telling the Prime Minister how excited I am,” Ms Clinton said.
The two met at the weekend at the East Asia Summit in Hanoi, where Ms Gillard was the only female leader and Ms Clinton was attending as an observer.”

I’d love to be a fly on the wall for those talks on Sunday. Powerful women pow-wow!

Hanging in the balance is the fate of another powerful woman’s career. The Hill reports: “Dems split over Pelosi bid for minority leader.” Here’s Politico’s coverage. I cannot help but find it surreal that we live in an era where the outgoing Speaker of the House announces she is running for Democratic leader in a tweet via her blackberry.

Continue Reading →

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MSNBC Suspends Olbermann After Donations to Dems Disclosed

By Joyce Arnold on 05 November 2010

Keith Olbermann has been suspended.

I’m seeing this at many LGBT blogs, with Raw Story and Politico cited.

“Mediaite quotes MSNBC President Phil Griffin as saying, ‘I became aware of Keith’s political contributions late last night. Mindful of NBC News policy and standards, I have suspended him indefinitely without pay.’”

SIGN the PETITION SUPPORTING KEITH OLBERMANN

TM Note: I frontpaged Joyce’s “In the News” diary, because this is important. What, did MSNBC not know Keith was a Lefty? This is where some on the Left run into problems with their campaign philosophy. Is free speech money? The Right says yes, the Left says no, with me coming down on the side of full disclosure and transparency. If speech is money then Keith has every right to do what he did. There’s allegedly a contract issue, which I cannot address for obvious reasons. Frankly, he should have disclosed his donations, but seriously, it’s not like anyone watching his show didn’t know he’s coming from the Left. I know many Hillary supporters still hold a grudge and don’t remember how important Olbermann was during the Bush tyranny. I’ve added the video as a reminder. …and I can’t believe I’m going to write this, but I agree with Bill Kristol.

First, he donated money to candidates he liked. He didn’t take money, or favors, in a way that influenced his reporting. Second, he’s not a reporter. It’s an opinion show. If Olbermann wants to put his money where his mouth is, more power to him. – Bill Kristol

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Obama Thought He Would Make the Difference

By Taylor Marsh on 05 November 2010

Actually he did, but not in a good way.

In January of 2010, when Rep. Marion Berry expressed concern over the upcoming midterms, Obama scoffed at any warnings or problems in his path. When Berry specifically referenced a possible ’94 reoccurrence Obama reportedly gave the concern “no credibility.” Berry told the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, reported also by Jake Tapper of ABC News, “They just kept telling us how good it was going to be.” He went further, quoting Pres. Obama:

‘Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.” – Pres. Obama

It didn’t mean squat.

The Republican Tea Party kicked his arrogant ass.

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Free Trade Deals for Everyone!

By Taylor Marsh on 05 November 2010

You get a free trade deal. ….and you get a free trade deal… And you get a free trade deal! That should be the banner accompanying Pres. Obama on his trip today.

This video is why I used to look forward to watching “Hardball.” Before Chris Matthews was taken ill with a permanent case of Clinton derangement syndrome, his blue collar, working-class sensibilities, minus his overly pious religiosity, made his show must see TV. What he’s talking about here is what I mentioned yesterday about what splitting the union vote cost Democrats. It cost us Joe Sestak. The job losses in what is called the “rust belt,” which Matthews refers to as “Scranton to Oshkosh,” have been decimated by the decline of American building power. It’s these people that Barack Obama just might have lost for the duration.

Ironically, one of the Left’s arch nemeses Patrick J. Buchanan was on this case over 16 years ago, talking about the decline in the manufacturing base and what it would eventually do to this country.

No one will ever be able to sufficiently explain to me why Pres. Obama’s first action as president wasn’t to begin a green energy jobs moon shot to match J.F.K.’s target to get to the moon. Or better yet, why “Bullet America” wasn’t launched, with the goal of constructing a coast-to-coast bullet train to connect fly-over country with everyone else. I’ll simply never understand the puny priorities of Mr. Obama, which led the only place it could on Tuesday given the needs of this country.

Pres. Obama has no vision. He’s transactional all the way.

Ducking out as quickly as he could after the midterm carnage and beginning his to Asia, planned long before reality landed because someone in the White House showed a political pulse after it was too late, Pres. Obama has a plan. It’s not a good plan, but he’s on a roll of disastrous consequences so doubling down shouldn’t surprise anyone.

It proves Mr. Obama hasn’t learned squat.

From The Hill:

Ford has launched an aggressive advertising campaign against the South Korea free trade agreement (FTA), which it argues would lock in unfair trade between the countries. In newspaper advertisements running within and outside the Beltway, Ford argues that for every 52 cars Korea ships to the U.S., the U.S. “can only export one there.” The ad states: “We believe in free trade, and this isn’t it. In fact, Ford has supported every trade agreement approved by Congress since 1965 — until this one.” [...]
While the GOP is seen as reflexively more free-trade, Ford Vice President for International Governmental Affairs Steve Biegun said the company has received strong support from Republicans in Congress on the trade deal. The company is the only U.S. automaker that did not accept a bailout from the government in the aftermath of the financial recession, and is seen as having clout on Capitol Hill.
South Korean auto producers sold 552,000 cars and light trucks in the U.S. in 2009, many of them made at U.S. plants, but Ford sold fewer than 3,000 cars in South Korea that year. Ford argues the reason is non-tariff barriers and other unfair rules. ..

I swear to God, it’s hard to be surprised anymore. The economic policies and priorities of Pres. Obama and his administration couldn’t be much worse. After his “shellacking” all we’re going to get is a more drastic right-ward tilt, something that never cured anything and only exacerbated our challenges.

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Splitting Union Voters Gives Nod to GOP

By Taylor Marsh on 04 November 2010

After venting, now some numbers… that is besides the 19 state legislatures won by Republicans, and Obama losing Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, plus the industrial Midwest to the old southern Confederacy states.

From the WSJ:

Union households, a key Democratic voting bloc, turned out in force last night and accounted for a quarter of the vote in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and Ohio, exit poll showed.
The problem: They didn’t always vote for Democrats, despite six-figure ad campaigns and get-out-the-vote efforts by their unions encouraging them to do so.
In the Pennsylvania Senate contest, for example, exit polls showed that 44% of union household members who voted Tuesday picked Republican Pat Toomey, rather than Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak. Mr. Toomey narrowly won, 51% to 49%, according the latest numbers from the Associated Press.
What’s going on? Nearly half, 45%, of Pennsylvania’s union household voters said someone in their house had been laid off in the past two years. President Barack Obama carried this state by 10 points in 2008, and campaigned there repeatedly this fall. But on Tuesday, 36% of the state’s electorate said they voted to register their discontent with Mr. Obama.
In the Ohio governor’s race, nearly a third of the labor vote backed Republican John Kasich, who narrowly defeated incumbent Democrat Gov. Ted Strickland.

Yeah, and about the wheeling and double dealing on the Cadillac tax in the health care plan, how’d that work out?

You think this is bad? Just wait until Pres. Obama cuts a deal on education.

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What’s Next?

By Taylor Marsh on 04 November 2010

…beyond making Barack Obama a one-term president? The eyes of the right are fixed on 2012 and nothing else. Why not? Considering the “shellacking” they gave Pres. Obama and the Democrats what reason do Republicans and their Tea Party pals have for cooperating? As Sean Hannity revealed yesterday on his radio show, “phase one” is complete, now it’s on to “phase two,” which is defeating Pres. Obama. They’ve got the Democrats right where they want them, so to not build on the Tea Party energy wave would be silly.

The bookend to that question is whether Pres. Obama will be challenged in 2012 and who it might be? It wouldn’t just be about taking the nomination away from Mr. Obama, which is as close to impossible as it gets, but about Democrats sending a message to the establishment, channeling their own version of Tea Party anger at where the lack of messaging, Democratic policy clarity has gotten the party. The main thing stopping a challenge is the dred, the paralyzing flop sweat that accompanies any conversation about a challenge for fear of alienating the African American vote forever.

As for the biggest winner on the political scene after the elections, Sarah Palin, she is where she only once dreamed of being after the midterms. Who you callin’ “quitter,” sucker, she seems to be saying in the video below. A woman primarily responsible for the energy wave that had at its foundation a message to which so many people related. In her new video taking credit for what she did, because she knows nobody else will give it to her, Palin once again teases her 2012 plans yet to be announced. She does it by channeling Ronald Reagan, which she’s done a lot lately. Her TLC/Discovery show about Alaska a way to channel a little of Ronnie’s Hollywood star power, at least that’s how she sees it. From the video below:

“This is our movement, this is our moment. This is our morning in America. …and it may take some renegades going rogue to get us there. It may take shaking it up to get there… We got to do this together.”

Reading the story in Politico about the supposed “failure” of Republicans to win the Senate, blaming it on the Tea Party, while looking at the rout across the country that blew Democrats out in the industrial midwest to the old Confederacy states, it reads like it came out of an alternate universe. The energy the Tea Party wave pushed voters to act out against Congress and is the emotion on which Republicans took power in the House.

It’s also what continues to take the Democratic Party to the right, along with our politics.

Call it preemptive political rationalizing, but it sounds to me like the Republican establishment is setting up their reasoning for why they won’t take up some of the wackier notions of the Tea Party crowd that will make them unpopular with the larger majority. From Politico:

Long-simmering tensions within the Republican Party spilled into public view Wednesday as the pragmatic and conservative wings of the GOP blamed each other in blunt terms for the party’s failure to capture the Senate. With tea party-backed candidates going down in Delaware, Colorado and Nevada, depriving Republicans of what would have been a 50-50 Senate, a bloc of prominent senators and operatives said party purists like Sarah Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) had foolishly pushed nominees too conservative to win in politically competitive states.

The Tea Party energy wave, whether they agree with Palin or her principles or not, brought women to the side of Republicans for the first time in decades. The youth that elected Obama stayed home in numbers exceeding 2006. Hispanics stayed home, too.

The Obama coalition was shattered and scattered to political oblivion and if they ever come back it will never, ever be the same.

Pres. Obama hasn’t shown any political energy or will to stand up to Republicans on policy so far and in his weakened position now who believes he’ll suddenly grow courage? All we’ve got is what he came into office with, hope.

The colossal political, policy and message failures that brought about the midterm wave or tsunami or avalanche or whatever weather metaphor you choose makes Pres. Obama vulnerable to a primary challenge, even if there is no one who can beat him. But the event alone could also be his saving grace, shaking Barack Obama out of his malaise and igniting something that we haven’t seen from him so far. Again, we can only hope.

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Dear Barack Obama: Word Salads Aren’t Enough

By Taylor Marsh on 03 November 2010

The Tea Party victories by Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida underscored the extent to which Republicans and Democrats alike may have underestimated the power of the Tea Party, a loosely-affiliated, at times ill-defined, coalition of grass-roots libertarians and disaffected Republicans. In exit polls, four in 10 voters expressed support for the Tea Party Movement. And Mr. Paul called his win part of “a tea party tidal wave” in his victory speech. – Victories Suggest Wider Appeal of Tea Party

If there is one thing that wasn’t done around her it’s underestimating the “Tea Party Movement.” I’ve been warning this was coming since before August 2009. Both big two parties were sent a message by voters. The one who gets it will win the next time around too.

New media headlines from the New York Times to Politico to Daily Caller to Huffington Post look like this…

Republicans and the Tea Party energy won more House seats than at any time since 1948. Congratulations Pres. Obama, two years after a historic presidential win your coalition has been trashed.

Obama, Speaker Pelosi, Democratic legislators, and Obama loyalists thought they could pass health care legislation by throwing the American people into a corporate monopoly system against their will, while using seniors’ money to pay for it, sacrificing women, while lying to the people that it wouldn’t cost more, as you push so called “benefits” off into the future. In fact, Obama and his loyalists actually thought they’d even get rewarded. The political malpractice is epic.

Today Pres. Obama will come out and say something to the effect that “we get the message,” people don’t want obstruction or partisanship they want us to work together. The man is clueless. Following tested partisan and Democratic principles going back to F.D.R. might have saved some of last night. But Obama’s Monty Hall, “let’s make a corporate deal,” screw the policy principles mentality was always doomed to take Dems down. It was just a matter of waiting for the moment to manifest.

What voters want is for their lives to get better or at the very least to believe that the people in charge making policies understand their plight and know what they’re doing. Pres. Obama does not and, unfortunately, too many elected Dems thought their job was to walk in lock-step with a president who couldn’t find a democratic policy answer with F.D.R.’s road map.

Obama and Pelosi passed an abominable piece of health care legislation, and got their heads handed to tehm because of their collusion with big insurance, big Phrma, with the backdrop of Wall Street coddling growing larger by the day. People seeing corporations and banks being bailed out as they were left with the bill at a time when they couldn’t pay their own compounded the problem.

Unfortunately, lots of other Democrats got wiped out too, with 15 state legislators going Republican.

Seniors 65 and older want “Obamacare” repealed by 58%, with the national average for repeal 48%. Guess why? Democrats actually thought that if they took away the most reliable voters’ most coveted entitlement they’d reward them with votes. When $500 million comes out of Medicare to pay for health care for others you’re going to hear from those voters.

This was foreshadowed, but Mr. Obama and the Democrats just kept on making deals with corporations, drug makers, hedge funders, car makers, banks, and everyone else, thinking that they were still living in 2008 and anything Obama will do will be accepted. His loyalists kept clapping.

On top of this is the optics of ducking a middle class tax fight. Ignoring a chance to impose a foreclosure moratorium, which directly impacts people’s bottom line. With the basic message from Obama and Democrats being they won’t fight to make the lives of Americans better, because playing it safe to save themselves is their goal.

Refusing to fight, even if you might fail, for people who need an economic champion, something Democrats have always been for people, gets you what you deserve.

Say what you will about the Tea Party, in all of their disparate groupings and unaffiliated relating elements, but they were willing to go down fighting for what they believe in and fighting against what they thought was wrong.

All the while the message was being sent the Obama White House laughed at them, the left derided them through the help of their cable enablers, which because of their Sarah Palin – Tea Party derangement still won’t admit it, with many of the progressive drivers missing by a mile what was building.

With Sarah Palin as their celebrity media spokesperson, whether each Tea Party person liked her or not, a loosely tethered group of disaffected people got national attention, helped by right-wing radio and Fox, then on Election Day joined together in separate voting booths across this country to say Pres. Obama, you blew it, and so did the guys helping you do it.

The election results of 2010 are a result of Mr. Obama’s philosophy of cutting a deal for the sake of an “accomplishment” and in order to further your own political marketing. This craven self-serving political egotism means political catastrophe if what you’re doing doesn’t actually make the lives of people better or at the very least doesn’t make them feel as if you’re making it worse.

Pres. Obama’s cheerleading word salads are a thing of 2008. So far what Americans have witnessed and experienced through their own lives is the realization that this is all he’s got.

It’s the third turn out the bums election in as many cycles. It’s going to happen again in 2012 and if Pres. Obama doesn’t get his act together he will be turned out too.

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Ed Rendell: ‘Democrats are Wussies’

By Taylor Marsh on 02 November 2010

That’s the quote of the midterms. Pres. Obama came into office two years ago, with people proclaiming conservatism is dead. He let the right off the mat and we’re seeing the results of what happens when you negotiate with yourself when you’ve got a majority. The Democrats under Obama have indeed been “wussies.”

Speaker Nancy Pelosi had a very short tenure. So much hope, but she goes down with an 8% approval with Independents. Her health care leadership, bringing the Catholic Church into the room to help craft legislation was a huge signal to women from the Democratic leadership, with Pres. Obama’s Executive Order to appease Bart Stupak a sign the Democratic Party’s long-held principles had shifted away from women’s freedom.

Then when Pres. Obama and the leadership ignored the chance to weigh in with foreclosure moratorium, as well as ignoring middle class tax cuts, women’s concerns about Democrats’ understanding their economic worries compounded.

Virginia went red tonight, as we wait to hear about VA11.

CNN also reported that senior citizens voted against Democrats for fear of what the health care legislation meant for them. No one should be surprised.

The wave has hit and the night’s still young.

UPDATE VIII: Harry Reid holds on to his seat, sending Sharron Angle home. What a herculean effort by Reid and his people. Never bet against Harry in NV.

UPDATE VII: Charlie Cook now sets House gains by Republicans at 67 seats.

UPDATE VI: John Kasich takes Ohio, handing a loss to Strickland, with another important state going to Republicans (along with Pennsylvania). Pres. Obama loses his Senate seat, with Kirk taking it Republican. Another tough one looking at 2012. Rory Reid goes down in NV, a man who would have been a great governor, but loses to Sandoval.

UPDATE V: ABC News calls it for Toomey, Joe Sestak losing in PA, a real disappointment, because there would be no better senator than Sestak. Ike Skelton, veteran Chair of Armed Services falls, as does Rep. Spratt, Budget.

UPDATE IV: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiornia. The resilient Jerry Brown gets it done again, defeating Meg Whitman who unloaded tens of millions of dollars but lost anyway.

UPDATE III: Maverick hero Sen. Russ Feingold goes down. Thank you, Sen. Feingold for all the fights you waged. Wisconsin Republicans are coming back. Along with Indiana, the rest of the rust belt and the Midwest foreshadows a real fault line for Obama in 2012.

UPDATE II: Nikki Haley wins in South Carolina.

UPDATE: Roy Blunt wins in Missouri.

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Exit Polls: Dems Have 10-point Favorability Gap

By Taylor Marsh on 02 November 2010

UPDATE (9pm): Rick Perry reelected in Texas. Andrew Cuomo beats Carl Paladino. Rep. Allan Grayson also went down tonight, which should be noted as well. Gillibrand, as well as Schumer, win in New York. Thune wins, John Hoeven wins in North Dakota.

UPDATE (8:30pm): Joe Manchin wins in West Virginia (by running way right). Richard Blumenthal beats McMahon; Elaine Marshall goes down to Burr in North Carolina. GOP picks up another seat in Indiana, which is going deep red.

UPDATE (8:20pm): Microcosm for Democrats, which is foreshadowing of a very bad night to come… Boucher in VA9 losing, Dem Glenn Nye losing VA2, Dem Perriello in VA5 losing, via @chucktodd. 1st election 4 me in “DC suburbs,” Connolly VA11 no good numbers yet, but he’s down right now (this is considered the “DC suburbs” where I live). Indiana wins for GOP are also sobering, as Obama loses a state he won in ’08.

UPDATE (8:00pm): Kelly Ayotte (Sarah Palin’s candidate) wins in New Hampshire, Chris Coons wins in Delaware, Marco Rubio, a rising national star for the GOP, wins in Florida. To note, Mike Castle’s seat goes Democrat, so “Thank you, Sarah Palin,” at least one happy note on the House.

UPDATE (7:31pm): Bushie Rob Portman wins in Ohio.

UPDATE (7pm): NBC News… Rand Paul wins in Kentucky; Dan Coats wins in Indiana.

Democrats have a 10-point favorability gap: 43 percent of voters have a positive opinion of the party, while 53 percent aren’t thrilled. The Republican Party also gets a thumbs-down from 53 percent of the nation’s voters, with just 41 percent saying they’re happy with the GOP. – CNN

Developments before final tally turn on whether you believe Gallup’s model for turnout. They register 63% to 44% enthusiasm for Republicans versus Democrats, which blows away the ’94 model, which I’ve never thought was completely apt. Using Gallup’s numbers as a possible backdrop, here’s the scuttlebutt circulating.

This is what comes from believing your own talking points, not to mention Newsweek’s polling (and Jonthan Alter’s analysis), that there isn’t really an enthusiasm gap between right and left.

There is a meme developing in what I’m reading and hearing that points to some underlying jitters insider Dems are now reportedly having over turnout.
Take Marc Ambinder:

But privately, senior Democratic officials with access to the boiler room data say that they’ve seen nothing to indicate that these anecdotes are evidence of a Democratic surge, or will lead to a surprise in the story tonight. That’s not to say that there won’t be a surprise, just that nothing Democratic officials are seeing actually gives them real confidence that there will be one.
If anything the early boiler room data makes the Democrats quite nervous.

Democrats are even nervous — wait for it — in Delaware.

In a noon email alert to supporters, Coons campaign manager Christy Gleason said close monitoring of voter turnout in the state’s 41 representative districts showed “lower turnout in New Castle and Kent counties than we’re comfortable with.”

People, it’s bad, but Delware?

There’s also reports that turnout in West Virginia is huge, as well as in Missouri, which means to me the Roy Blunts machine is working at full throttle.

Lastly, there were reports very early today that weather in Alaska was awful. It matters when it comes to turnout, as the most committed wins.

…and apropos of nothing, ABC cans Andrew Breitbart. Let the pr war begin!

Dear Mr. Breitbart,
We have spent the past several days trying to make clear to you your limited role as a participant in our digital town hall to be streamed on ABCNews.com and Facebook. The post on your blog last Friday created a widespread impression that you would be analyzing the election on ABC News. We made it as clear as possible as quickly as possible that you had been invited along with numerous others to participate in our digital town hall. Instead of clarifying your role, you posted a blog on Sunday evening in which you continued to claim a bigger role in our coverage. As we are still unable to agree on your role, we feel it best for you not to participate.
Sincerely,
Andrew Morse

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Bright Spot Amidst Carnage

By Taylor Marsh on 02 November 2010

The Obama effect on today’s elections is going to be sobering and all bad. Two years after being elected, on a day where political analysts across the spectrum wondered about the death of conservatism, it’s back with a vengeance. Pres. Barack Obama, David Axelrod and his political team should take a bow. I bet Rahm Emanuel is glad he’s back in Chicago.

Very few Democratic candidates closed the election sounding like Democrats. But when they did they didn’t have Barack Obama by their side. He was off spinning tales of a Bush return to his own choir since everyone else had stopped listening to him, talking about something no one was buying, because the group with the most energy this cycle, the Tea Party led by Sarah Palin, sure as hell wasn’t pushing that and neither was any other Republican. When Pres. Obama and the White House wasn’t talking about a return to the past they were yammering about foreign money “stealing” the election. Money and transparency are critical issues, but aren’t a closing argument during dire times. Once again turning to a subject that wasn’t on the voters minds. Neither Obama nor his political shop ever found a cohesive storyline that would sell the Democratic case, making it seem like they didn’t have one to offer.

That job was left to the master and Democratic campaigner in chief, former Pres. Bill Clinton. Oh, if we only could have cloned him.

Democrats are going to lose Russ Feingold today, with Joe Sestak having a very hard time of it. They didn’t get any help from Pres. Obama, whose presence over the election hovers over every voting booth, because he never bothered to cite the things bothering voters, but instead got lost in the haze of his own incomprehensibility. Many voters will be voting against Pres. Obama and the Democratic Congress who passed lame legislation that pissed so many off. Things like the health care bill and paltry finreg, leaving the middle class tax cut fight on the floor of the House, and the case for a foreclosure moratorium ignored by Obama, so the votes against him will be much more heart felt than the votes for Republicans.

There are many reasons Democrats are going to lose big today in the House, while keeping a slim majority in the Senate. The economy sucks and people are worried about their own futures, with midterms notoriously cruel. But it didn’t have to be as bad as it’s going to turn out.

It’s not often the supposed leader of the Democratic Party chooses to be loyal to an Independent running for governor over one of his own, as Obama did with regard to Rhode Island. This lack of fealty representative of Barack Obama also ignoring the foundational tenet of what makes Democrats who they are, which is the focus on the economic health of middle class workers and the assurance that Democrats have their back.

Voters aren’t sure about much this Election Day and that includes where Democrats stand on making their lives better and more secure. Because of this uncertainty they’re going to vote for Republicans over the party that has a history of fighting and supporting the little guy, the underdog. No one is more responsible for this than Pres. Obama.

The outcome of today’s elections will be about a lot of things, but it won’t be about Obama’s “overreach” as will be cited, or a vote against liberal policies in favor of conservative answers. It will be about political incompetence and the inability to craft legislation that actually works instead of conservative compromise that produces legislative mush on the altar of getting something done even if what it manifests doesn’t do the job.

People don’t care about liberal or conservative as much as they do about effectiveness. Democrats have always known the purpose of government and how to use it to its maximum effectiveness on the people’s behalf, especially when times are tough. So, if you want to talk about the epic fail being voted on today, this is it, because Pres. Obama simply doesn’t know what he’s doing.

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Dems Last Pitch: ‘Don’t Let Palin Win’

By Taylor Marsh on 01 November 2010

As for any question about Sarah Palin’s 2010 prowess, let’s consider case closed.

It’s being reported as the Democrats’ “best performing” ad not featuring Obama, though I’d add that no add spotlighting Obama right now would be much of a draw.

Pres. Obama will be on with Ryan Seacrest tomorrow at 7:15 a.m. Pacific time. Seen as a reaction to his abysmal performance with Jon Stewart it seems a little telling. Seacrest is taking question on Facebook. It’s kind of alarming that there were only around 70 at the time of this post, even though the entry was uploaded at noon time.

Not sure what the Palin add juxtaposed against the Seacrest interview means, but it seems a fitting ending to chaos politics 2010.

Dems also might want to save the “Don’t let Palin win” ad graphic. They might need it come 2012, though if the Republican establishment has their way… You know the drill.

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