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Sarah Steps Closer to 2012



What many won’t admit, even her enemies, is that without Sarah Palin in the race it won’t be nearly as exciting…. for Republicans especially. The level of interest without Palin on the primary docket will fall like a rock from an Alaskan bush plane.

Sarah Palin confirms what’s been obvious for a very long time. She’s considering seriously running in ’12. As you’ll see in her interview, via ABC and Barbara Walters, she also believes she can beat Pres. Obama. After the midterms, every Republican feels this way.

In fact, if Obama was a stock the advice would be sell.

At a private meeting on Tuesday afternoon, George Soros, a longtime supporter of progressive causes, voiced blunt criticism of the Obama administration, going so far as to suggest that Democratic donors direct their support somewhere other than the president.

It’s this feeling that Obama’s beatable that will drive everything Republicans do in Congress until the 2012 elections. Legislation isn’t their goal, nor is addressing issues. It’s all about taking full control, the White House and including the Senate. It’s the only way they can gut health care.

Palin’s interview in the Sunday Times Magazine is part of the end of the year tour by a woman who has had a remarkable 2010 by anyone’s standard.

The caricature of Palin as a vapid, winking, press-averse clotheshorse proved irresistible to late-night entertainers. Less well known was the Palin who agitated for more access to the media (other than Katie Couric), who was seen more than once passed out on her hotel bed half-buried in briefing books and index cards and whose thriftiness when it came to her wardrobe was so obvious that one senior strategist clucked of the Palins, “These people shop at Dillards!”

[...] Palin became testy when I asked her about the books I heard she had been reading. “I’ve been reading since I was a little girl,” she snapped. “And my mom is standing 15 feet away from me, and I should put her on the phone with you right now so she can tell you. That’s what happens when you grow up in a house full of teachers — you read; and I always have. Just because — and,” she continued, though in a less blistering tone, “I don’t want to come across sounding caustic or annoyed by this issue: because of one roll-of-the-eye answer to a question I gave, I’m still dealing with this,” she said, referring to her interview with Katie Couric. “There’s nothing different today than there was in the last 43 years of my life since I first started reading. I continue to read all that I can get my hands on — and reading biographies of, yes, Thatcher for instance, and of course Reagan and the John Adams letters, and I’m just thinking of a couple that are on my bedside, I go back to C.S. Lewis for inspiration, there’s such a variety, because books have always been important in my life.” She went on: “I’m reading [the conservative radio host] Mark Levin’s book; I’ll get ahold of Glenn Beck’s new book — and now because I’m opening up,” she finished warily, “I’m afraid I’m going to get reporters saying, Oh, she only reads books by Glenn Beck.”

I explained to Palin that in my view, at least, this line of inquiry wasn’t gratuitous — that questions did in fact linger about her “gravitas gap.” Didn’t she think, for example, that the Republican kingmakers who were now supposedly scheming to kneecap her were mainly just concerned about how voters viewed her? “If that were the case, then they need to be courageous enough to put their names behind their criticisms,” she said, referring to anonymous quotations attacking her. “As I replied to Politico, these fellows want to be trusted to tend to our nation’s economic woes? They want to be trusted to take on the likes of Ahmadinejad, but they won’t take on a hockey mom from Wasilla? Until they do that, I dismiss them.”

Murkowski prevailing in her Lieberman-esque move to oust Joe Miller, who collapsed in on himself through his own mistakes, means nothing to Sarah. Nor does the other endorsement failures. Palin has been on a trajectory that no one can stop.

Sarah Palin’s “death panels” squeal was the cry heard round the nation that invigorated the Tea Party and beat Obama and the Democrats who were too busy laughing at her and resting on their hubris to realize she was about to cause the biggest problem for Democrats by demonizing health care legislation in a way that couldn’t be turned around.

Because Palin often works 20-hour days, so does Mansour, because “the governor reads, checks and approves everything that’s under her name.” Mansour regularly spars with the media on her private Twitter account for perceived inaccuracies about Palin. At the same time, she acknowledged, “I love it when they underestimate her.”

In truth, few are underestimating Sarah Palin anymore. In that endearing manner of the Beltway echo chamber, the prevailing narrative of Palin in 2009 was that that she was an incompetent ditz. This year’s story line is that she is a social-media visionary who purposefully circumnavigated the power-alley gasbags and thereby constructed a new campaigning template for the ages.

As a feminist who wants to see a female president, it’s just too bad Sarah Palin’s politics are so antithetical to mine. However, I’ve never once discounted her political instincts or talent. In fact, what’s happened is pretty much following a script.

I’ve also warned continually about the incompetent political machine of Pres. Obama, his White House, the DNC and OFA, beginning back when Democrats lost the health care messaging campaign to Sarah Palin.

So there’s a reason Palin thinks she can beat Obama. She’s done it before.

About Taylor Marsh

Veteran political analyst and author of "The Hillary Effect - Politics, Sexism and the Destiny of Loss," now available in print at Amazon.com, and 1 of 4 books chosen by Barnes and Noble to launch their "NOOK First" Featured Authors Selection program. Former Miss Missouri, Broadway dancer, & relationship consultant at LA Weekly, produced & wrote one woman show "Weeping for JFK."

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63 Responses to Sarah Steps Closer to 2012

  1. Marie205 17 November 2010 at 6:21 pm #

    I have been saying for the longest time that Sarah Palin is running for President. People on the left that continue to believe she will be an easy kill in 2012 against Obama are daydreaming. Sarah Palin is going all out Battle Royale against Obama for the title of First Female President.

    With the right marketing by her media team…she could bring up her positive numbers in two years. People should not underestimate Mrs. Palin. Remember Bush was elected twice…lol

  2. politicsnootch 17 November 2010 at 7:19 pm #

    Ready or not… She is so running. And you’re right, WHO on the right could generate as much excitement? I’m baffled by people who think she will be a walk in the park to beat.

  3. section9 17 November 2010 at 7:46 pm #

    Of course, Taylor, it will get to the point that the shrewdest Democrat of all, Bill Clinton, will realize that there is ONE Democrat who could actually go head to head with Palin in 2012 and give the country a decent, issues-based campaign. And, I regret to say, probably beat Palin.

    And take her revenge on Obama for the thievery of 2008.

    In early 1963, Kennedy and Goldwater were having private conversations about having Lincoln/Douglas style debates all over the country in 1964. Sadly, it never occurred.

    But it is getting to the point where those of us in Palinland can actually divine a path to victory for Sarah. Right now, she’s running a guerilla campaign. This is classic asymmetric warfare in which the weaker party leverages her strengths and uses them in ways that become force-multipliers against an apparently stronger opponent.

    What’s hurting Palin among GOPers is that so many establishment types bought into the notion of an Obama second term that they are surprised at his sudden turn to incompetence. Now THEY want to pick the drapes in the Oval Office, too.

  4. Joyce Arnold 17 November 2010 at 8:28 pm #

    “the Democrats who were too busy laughing at her and resting on their hubris …” – TM

    They still seem to be resting on their hubris. Hubrises. Hubri.

    But they don’t seem to be laughing so much.

  5. Smooth Jazz 17 November 2010 at 8:29 pm #

    Hello Ms Marsh,

    I do not post here often (I am a Repub), but I do stop by because I find you one of the most reasonable and balanced left of center observers – And believe your synopses of the landscape (from both the left and right perspectives) to often be on the money. I must commend you for another balanced piece on Gov Palin. She has a long way to go to repair the 2008 damage and media caricature of her, but you are able to assess her, without malice or emotion, and I believe your counterparts on the left would be wise if they paid attention to your balanced perpective.

    Above all, you avoid the hyterircs and Palin bashing that one would find on Huff Post, DailyKOS, Firedoglake, etc. And you have the prescience to correctly assess the landscape and acknowledge that Obama may be vulnerable. Vulnerable to perhaps another first, a woman President. I know you wanted that to be Hillary Clinton, but if Gov Palin can hold her own in debates and on the stump, a phenomena will take place in this country that will overwhelm Obama, Dem ankle biters and snipers, and establishment Repub like Peggy Noonan, Karl Rove, Kathleen Parker, etc.

    Full Disclosure: I am an African American and Moderate Republican (Fiscal conservative, Liberal on social issues) from the Northeast who supported Pres Obama in 2008. I am very disappointed in him, primarily in the exploding deficits. I must admit I am still skeptical of Gov Palin. I DO want her to win, but she has to convince me (and countless others) that she has the chops to govern as President.

    • whitepaw 17 November 2010 at 10:24 pm #

      Hi — I love your post and hope you post more. But I’m confused about why you would support Palin over other Republican candidates… I may be wrong, but was under the impression that she is conservative on social issues as well. Thanks!

      Full disclosure here — white female… liberal all the way! :)

    • whitepaw 17 November 2010 at 10:26 pm #

      Also — As you are a Republican, can you tell me why you voted for Obama in 2008? I’m just really curious. Thanks!

    • fairmindedindependant 18 November 2010 at 1:28 am #

      Thanks for posting on here Smooth Jazz, I hope you post more often. I agree, there are people that go too far about going after Sarah Palin and even her family. I am a moderate myself, was a democrat now a independent. You look at all the women Palin helped during the primaries like Nikki Haley of South Carolina and countless others in congress and governor races. I also think Sarah Palin has to convince others, and thats what I think her reality show is for. I am so ticked off right now at the dems that I can honest say my vote is up for grabs.

    • Taylor Marsh 18 November 2010 at 9:25 am #

      Thanks SmoothJazz and I appreciate you stopping by.

      Palin seems to understand that she still has to convince people like yourself in order to make the final sale. That’s the first step.

      Considering her fan base, who could tilt the primaries, if she jumps in, say this time next year, the energy behind her may be too great for any other Rep. to hold off.

  6. klassicheart 17 November 2010 at 10:12 pm #

    I recommend listening to Tina Fey accepting the Mark Twain award recently…it is so funny and so true….PBS edited out the “controversial” material (liberal fear, of course)but it is so accurate. About Sarah Palin. She would be great…if not for some very extreme views…But if the public dislikes Obama enough and if he continues on his weak and Jimmy Carter like path, nothing can be ruled out. Many women want to vote for a strong woman…and the midterms underline what they think of Obama and Democrats..Lisa Murkowski fought back and the voters supported her against tough odds, against the party nominee and against Sarah Palin …too bad these women are all Republicans…or too sad…

    • myiq2xu 18 November 2010 at 1:23 am #

      Are you referring to the debunked rape-kit lie that Tina repeated?

      Or the lie about evolution? (Sarah believes in it, she just thinks God made it happen)

      Tina was right about Palin opposing gay marriage. But then so does Obama.

    • cjoblak@hotmail.com 18 November 2010 at 1:14 pm #

      boy, that just says it all.

      I hope not too many people in the Great USA takes their cues on how to vote from a comedienne. Talk about …too sad.

  7. klassicheart 17 November 2010 at 10:15 pm #

    Though I like Kristen Gillibrand of New York…but it’s too early to know…

    • whitepaw 17 November 2010 at 10:28 pm #

      I LOVE Gillibrand!

  8. kris 17 November 2010 at 11:26 pm #

    I haven’t commented here in months. So first of all, hey Whitepaw, Go Ducks….

    I take exception to Taylor’s comments that she has never discounted Palin’s political instincts or talents. In 2008 when I was a regular here and before McCain chose Ms. Palin as his running mate I predicted he would do just that, energize the Republican base and make a difference in the campaign. Also remember remarking how smart this woman is. Word salad at the time didn’t mean crap. Ms. Marsh, whom I have supported in the past, and still do took me to the cleaners for my opinion.

    Just dropped by to say….told you so. Occasionally my ego needs to be stroked, even if I have to do it myself :-)

    2012 will be a remarkable year. Count NO ONE out.

    • Taylor Marsh 18 November 2010 at 9:54 am #

      “Anyone underestimating what Sarah Palin can do for John McCain but also for the Republican Party, starting tonight, better strap themselves in.” from this link, 9.3.08:

      http://www.taylormarsh.com/2008/09/03/sarah-palins-priorities/

      Actually, you misjudged the moment in 2008. You were absolutely wrong about Sarah Palin, because you were one of those who actually believed Hillary Clinton voters would cross over.

      Let’s also remember it was the general election where partisanship ruled for me and others who didn’t want to elect McCain.

      But I said from Sarah’s beginning that Republicans had “Sarah Palin religon.”

      http://www.taylormarsh.com/2008/09/11/palin-offers-tough-talk/

      From the above link:

      Palin’s patter on national security is obviously thin and she didn’t seem to know or understand the Bush Doctrine. Compared to Biden, she’s just not in the same league, but
      who is? Unfortunately, that won’t be her hurdle. But what she’s saying is that honoring our responsibility as a NATO ally we would be obliged to come to the aid of any country under serious threat, as would others in NATO. Can anyone prove she’s wrong? … .. I didn’t think so. Right, we don’t have the troops, which Putin
      knows all too well. However, that’s not the issue in this interview.

      Sounds to me like we’re at the water’s edge on this one.

      Review? Lowered expectations going in. Quick study. Holds her own. Point to Palin.

      Deadly outcome for Democrats. Palin just might be the gift that keeps on giving… to the Republicans.

      But did I think Palin’s religion-based foreign policy ideas were and are dangerous? You betcha.

      http://www.taylormarsh.com/2008/09/02/palin-our-national-leaders-are-sending-u-s-soldiers-out-on-a-task-that-is-from-god/

      What I wrote about Palin was fact-based only. That the pick in 2008 was McCain’s “hail Mary.” That Palin’s Alaska investigations would hurt her, which they did and in fact these ethics investigations led to her leaving the governorship, because she was hounded almost to financial indebtedness. That Palin had no foreign policy or jobs position, but also that McCain’s team didn’t know who she was and the Right was apoplectic.

      I focused also that it was the Right who wanted her out.

      Every single thing I wrote was factual, on point and not personal, strickly on the business of politics.

      When I interviewed Carly Fiorina, she admitted that they were hoping Hillary voters would cross over because of Palin. They knew at the time this site was a place where female voters lurked, so they targeted the place with ads, you name it.

      The fact remains that when Sarah Palin came on the scene neither she nor the McCain campaign was prepared for her entrance. There’s no one on the scene at the time who denies this fact.

      I treated Sarah Palin equally to a Republican man going up against a Democrat after George W. Bush sent this country over the cliff.

      • kris 18 November 2010 at 10:03 am #

        You must have me confused with someone else. I never stated, nor did I believe, that Hillary voters would support Gov. Palin.

    • whitepaw 18 November 2010 at 11:48 pm #

      Hi kris! I don’t post a lot but I do read and lurk. So happy to see your post. And yes… thanks for the Go Ducks (just that I’m a Beaver fan)… but as we Beavers SUCK this year…and U of O is #1…and I have two sons at U of O now… well… I’m learning to love the Ducks…. But I have to admit I have a lot of issues with all the $$$ Phil Knight (Nike)sends their way. Oh well.

      Thought of you when my husband and I took a road trip in late August/September… as we drove down I-5.

  9. Ronc99 18 November 2010 at 12:24 am #

    Smooth Jazz posted: I must admit I am still skeptical of Gov Palin. I DO want her to win, but she has to convince me (and countless others) that she has the chops to govern as President.

    Welcome Smooth Jazz. I have a question for you about Sarah Palin. She quit her four-year term as Governor of Alaska over 600,000+ citizens, half way through. She didn’t have the chops to be a governor of that small citizenry state. She left to make money and join the civilian sector. What about that, plus her reality show, makes her having earned *chops* to govern as President of America in 2012?

    Where is Palin’s foreign policy experience to be Commander in Chief? Palin was on John McCain’s hit list for being one of the most PORKING Governors of all the governors in America BEFORE he selected her to be his VP. Proof positive she’s not a fiscal conservative. Plus the deal she made with ExxonMobile to give Alaskans part of what ExxonMobile owed them for Alaskan oil. She screwed her own citizens out of what they were owed by over 50%.

    This is not bashing Palin, this is stating the facts about her that are a matter of PUBLIC RECORD.

    Like Whitepaw said: I would not call Palin a conservative on social issues. I would call her a far right whackjob on those issues. And you say you are a liberal on social issues?

    I also take issue with Taylor on whom is to blame on Democrats losing over two weeks ago. No mention of Steny Hoyer and his Blue Dogs pushing all legislation WAY TO THE RIGHT causing the base to stay home.

    Also, no mention of the Democratic Leadership Council. Those Democratic Senators continuously pressure Obama to make deals with Republicans while pretty much always voting WITH the Republicans.

    When Bush was president and the GOP were majority over both Houses, those Blue Dogs and DLC Senate Democrats voted with the Republicans, consistently. Then debt or deficits didn’t matter. Enter a Democratic majority and these so called centrists, conservatives, moderates voted with the Republicans because all at once they “found” their fiscal conservatism. Hypocritical liars, more like. They are Republicans in Democratic clothing. They are to blame for the huge losses to the Democratic party.

    Another question? Where were all the critics against Steny Hoyer remaining as the #2 leader (Whip) in the House minority? Wasn’t he #2 the last four years, to which, as House Majority Leader, the Dems lost big. Just Nancy was questioned by our media and Taylor.

    Yep, Obama who is just like the Blue Dogs, DLC Democrats and Steny Hoyer is blamed while they get a pass on this site. That is JUST wrong. Please stop it, as until the Democrats come way back Left, the Democratic party will NOT win the White House or the majorities of BOTH Houses, back!

    • Ga6thDem 18 November 2010 at 7:38 am #

      We lost the experience argument when we nominated Obama. Obama himself repeated said that he was qualified because he could run a campaign. How on earth is Sarah Palin any less qualified that Obama was four years ago?

    • section9 18 November 2010 at 8:59 am #

      Actually, this is bollocks.

      McCain picked Palin precisely because she WASN’T on his pork hit list, and because she had had a falling out with his nemesis, Ted Stevens, over pork and the famous bridge.

      One of the problems Obama people have when trying to rewrite history is the actual history. Palin did reduce actual earmarks when she was governor and left the state with a surplus. And she was able to reach across the aisle with Democrats to do it.

      The notion that she was some sort of pork puller was propaganda developed by Obama opposition researchers who were parachuted in after McCain picked her in August of 2008.

      It’s very pleasant trying to watch the extreme left blame Obama for not being extreme enough. Meanwhile, Bill and Hillary Clinton are marking time until the Obamist house of cards collapses and they take their Party over and move it back to the center where it belongs.

      I’m a Republican. But even I know that a centrist Democratic Party is better for the country. What we’ve got now is some Peronist Rube Goldberg thing that’s too easy to run against.

    • getty1206 18 November 2010 at 9:37 pm #

      If you are asking thse questions of Sarah palin, I certainly hope you had the forsight to also ask these questions of Obama when he was running. If not, your credibility to even ask these questions is pretty much shot.

  10. fairmindedindependant 18 November 2010 at 1:19 am #

    I would not rule out Sarah Palin either. Compared to the rest in the field. She seems to be everywhere including her family. Since 2008, she has kept herself in the public eye, being the topic of conversation ever since, People didn’t think she would be front and center this long. She has staying power and I hardly have ever seen a political that has been this famous for this long. I think Sarah Palin planning which moves she is going to make. Everytime I go to a bookstore there are so many books about her. I never seen something like this before. I voted for president Obama before but I can honestly say my vote is up for grabs.

  11. Ronc99 18 November 2010 at 2:22 am #

    Here is Obama and Hillary’s pal, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, yesterday:

    ***Secretary Gates: On deficit, Defense Department is ‘not the problem’

    Defense Secretary Robert Gates took a swipe on Tuesday at the proposal from the co-chairmen of President Obama’s deficit commission to slash the Pentagon budget by $100 billion.

    Gates said that such drastic cuts could devastate the military’s force structure without any big impact on the nation’s red ink.

    “The truth of the matter is when it comes to the deficit, the Department of Defense is not the problem,” Gates said at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council on Tuesday. “I think in terms of the specifics they came up with, that is math not strategy.”***

    Why is Gates talking to the Rupert’s WSJ CEO Council??? It was just last year Gates was telling Obama we needed to cut defense. Time to LOUDLY invalidate Gates by calling him John Kerry — he was for it before he was against it. *rimshot*

    Here is President Eisenhower making Gates his whipping boy along with Gates’ allies, Obama and Hillary:

    “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population . It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.”

    Powerful, eh? Yes, Ike might of made this speech on April 16, 1953, but it’s even more relevant, today. This is the kind of Democratic statesman America needs, ASAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Fire Gates and replace him with a REAL LIBERAL — something Obama or Bill Clinton never have done *sigh*

    • section9 18 November 2010 at 9:13 am #

      The only reason why Barack Obama is even treated as an adult is because he has Hillary Clinton and Bob Gates in his cabinet. The rest of them are time-servers and hacks.

      Bob Gates is a superb public servant. I disagree with him on some things, but on the whole, his willingness to serve a Democratic President in time of war has burnished his reputation for service of country above party.

      Eisenhower understood war. He also understood the costs of forestalling it. That same Eisenhower went on to fully fund Curtis LeMay’s Strategic Air Command with 1,000 B-52 bombers and the nucklear weapons with which they carried. He did so because he understood that while spending on weapons was theft, it was a down payment to deter war, which was infinitely more expensive.

      Between 1953, when the Korean Armistice was signed, and 1959, when the first American Advisors began arriving to help the corrupt Diem Government in Vietnam, not one American soldier died in combat during Eisenhower’s term in office. Not one.

      Smart American Presidents emulate Eisenhower. Reagan did. Palin would do well to follow Ike’s example. Speak softly. Never intervene. But have the biggest stick on the planet.

  12. texan4hillary 18 November 2010 at 2:49 am #

    im almost certain 2012 wont be just repub vs dem. u will have 3rd and maybe 4th party challenge. 1912 is said to have been the most exciting election in american history- full of suspense and debate. frmr pres teddy r vs pres taft vs wilson. 100 yrs later it appears a wild unriuly race is set. high unemplyment and a dysfunctional wh and congress on top of the 8 yrs of bush i think is priing the country for something very different.

    what i wonder is does palin really believe all the stuff she says? oh like abolishing spereation of church and state. is she using the tea party concept to ride into power and then in the general election pivot to a more centrsit populist sharp edged type campaign. my sense is that is what she may be doing. using the tea party folks to get her the nom then make the pivot to win the general.

    palin’s biggest 2 issues are independants who wildly oppose her candidacy thus far esp in nh etc and her being woman. after watching hillary savaged day in and out by every power that could in america i just wonder if this sexist nation is capable of putting a woman into the wh. if palin surges next yr obama has a mega problem- no i think 2. if palin is very controversial and hounded by the sexist media, but surges over her rivals then a big problem for dems. but then there is the bloomberg problem. bloomberg will only run if he can really win. if indies continue to abhor palin, obama keeps flailing then i think bloomberg will run.

    im still unsure how bloomberg can win bc i think he wil sphon mostly dem votes- he is for gay marriage, pro choice, pro afirm action etc.. im sure bloomberg’s folks think on this one too- how to form a coaltion that can beat the 2 party system. now Obama can give bloomberg the boost he needs should obama move to back the def comm on dec 1. backing ss cuts would sow a dem primary challenge from hell and maybe give bloomberg his 3rd party opening.

    the smartest- or one of the smartest- in hillaryland was and is howard wolfson. had this guy been in charge fro day 1 things would have turned out different many have said. ive had many communications with him- he was presonally resppnisve to many hillary volunteers in the 08 primary. he got the need for grassroots engagement and the campaign finally did just that when wolfson took a very central role in march 08.

    i had one other thought on bloomberg- judging from some responses ive seen on articles on him online, emails and reactions from some dems in person he does seem to have an appeal with a good number of dems and indies- esp frmr hillary voters. my bet is bloomberg would aim at the hillary coalition with wolfson targeting message. palin will try at the hillary coalition as well. and lord knows with obama. i simply do not know- yet.

  13. guyski 18 November 2010 at 4:27 am #

    Putting Sarah Palin aside for the moment. 2012 is shaping up good for a Republican candidate becoming the next President.

    The mid-term elections counting; not just, the House and Senate wins, but also the Governors and state legislatures is advantageous for a Republican candidate.

    By not gaining control of the Senate and Harry Reid keeping his position is good for Republicans. Some now blame the Tea Party/Palin for this, but in hindsight the Republicans will be grateful that they did not gain control of the Senate.

    The House leadership remains the same for the Democrats, even thow they are now the minority party.

    There does not appear to be any major personal shake up coming in the administration, just a possible reshuffling.

    2012 will be all about Obama.

    Who knows what’s happening with the DNC.

    Someone running as an Independent will effect the Democrats more than the Republicans. Someone like Bloomberg really can’t win, that person would be just a spoiler.

    The big question is the economy. Even if the unemployment rates improves, GDP increases, and all the other economic indicators improve, but the housing situation stays the same it will be advantageous for the Republicans. In politics time is not constant. Two years is plenty for readjustments for a President, but when is comes to the housing sector. The time is almost up.

    Now back to Palin. Taking the above into consideration, if she can get the Republican nomination, she can become President.

  14. guyski 18 November 2010 at 6:31 am #

    Another thing to consider for 2012 and Palin. The Media. If it is new media, old media, internet, TV, print and all across the political spectrum. They all want her to run (they migh not say it out loud). Now that doesn’t mean they want her to win; in fact, some would be giddy at the opportunity to bring her down. But they all want her to run.

    Why? Because she is a cash cow. How much revenue can she generate for the media? 100′s of millions? A billion?

    She understands this, but is the media prepared?

  15. AliceP 18 November 2010 at 8:56 am #

    Just what we need as president – a former governor who quit in the middle of her term so she could go make more money and whose family thinks they have successful lives because they dance with the stars and rake in the cash.

    Wake me up when the bad dream is over.

    • cjoblak@hotmail.com 18 November 2010 at 1:07 pm #

      What’s wrong with Making Cash??? It is the American Dream! It isn’t like Obama didn’t try to make a boatload with his books. Or anyone else for that matter! I say Go Sarah, make more money!

      Why do some people deny her the right to make lots of money? some people just can’t handle the fact that she has been successful.

      I will vote for her. She is bright, did well for Alaska while she was governor. Personally, I think she needs to meet with a few foreign leaders and spiff up on her forein policy, which I sure she will be able to master much more successfully than our current Bow er in Chief. she has some time to do that.

      It would only make her more appealing as a candidate for the Presidency.

    • getty1206 18 November 2010 at 9:42 pm #

      I am so tited of the same old meme about how she quit to “make money and be star”. So, she personally told you why she quit? She has explained in countless ways and in countless sources why she quit, but you seem to know better than she did why she quit. Unstuck yourself and find out why, from her own mouth, she quit being Gov. You give me a headache with your same old PDS symptoms.

  16. Smooth Jazz 18 November 2010 at 8:57 am #

    Thanks to all who welcomed me here. Gov Palin obviously brings out the passion in a lot of people, and I suspect she will not be popular on a left of center blog, so I will not respond to all the questions, but I will respond to this one: Why I voted for Obama even though I’m a Repub.

    I grew up in Brooklyn, NY and currently live in the Philadelphia area. I still stay close with friends and family in Brooklyn, and I must concede that a big part of it was the historic significance of being the first African American President. Beyond that, I felt he could bring our country together. Instead, I’ve been horrified by the debt & deficit the country is running up.

    I realize most commenters here are Palin Haters, so anything positive or neutral that is posted about her on this forum is subject to attack or ridicule. She still has a VERY HIGH threshold to cross in my mind, and only time will tell whether she will be able to cross it. I’m willing to listen and observe. As for the other Repubs, none of the others excite me. It is as simple as that.

  17. AliceP 18 November 2010 at 10:08 am #

    Obama didn’t run up the debt. George “The Decider” Bush did.

    • cjoblak@hotmail.com 18 November 2010 at 1:16 pm #

      oh please, Alice P. Where have you been?????

      Obama has tripled Bush’s debt in only 2 years.

      Holy Toledo!

      • Jell-OH Schott 18 November 2010 at 2:21 pm #

        Do you understand the difference between the debt and the deficit?

        • pmichael 18 November 2010 at 3:23 pm #

          deficit is the annual figure borrowed – debt is the total accumulated borrow (since the beginning). Each year the deficit is added to the dept (or subtracted if there is a surplus)

          Right?

      • Taylor Marsh 18 November 2010 at 3:56 pm #

        cjoblak, not even Joe Scarborough believes that line. AliceP is correct.

        • cjoblak@hotmail.com 18 November 2010 at 5:11 pm #

          ok, so how did we get 3 trillion dollars in debt??? Please explain it to me. Please don’t tell me it was George Bush’s fault. I’m really sick of hearing that.

          It didn’t just happen. Obama and his democratic congress did it. That congress is so incompetent they don’t even have a budget. How despicable and stupid, especially with the state of our economy.

          • pmichael 18 November 2010 at 5:23 pm #

            Actually in Oct.2009 the ‘debt’ was about 12 trillion. As of now it’s about 13.7 trillion. This was done with 1/2 billion dollar annual increases since 2003 then with increases of $1 trillion 2008, $1.9 trillion in 2009, and $1.7 trillion in 2010. Obama’s administration has certainly added to the pot – but “tripled”? – not even close.

          • cjoblak@hotmail.com 19 November 2010 at 3:12 pm #

            13 trillion

    • getty1206 18 November 2010 at 9:43 pm #

      Get your facts straight. See above.

      • pmichael 19 November 2010 at 5:41 am #

        Thank ya, getty.
        It’s gettin’ kinda weird how people just pull numbers out of their butt these days – like – ‘damn! half a million people came to our rally’

        • cjoblak@hotmail.com 19 November 2010 at 10:51 am #

          Oh, so what was the debt in 2006????? and what is it now??? It has tripled since the Democrats took over the Congress in 2006. do the math.

          I stated Obama AND his Democratic Congress ran up the debt. learn to read.

  18. Jell-OH Schott 18 November 2010 at 10:52 am #

    Oh, how I wish she would be the Republican nominee in 2012. My prediction, however, is that the Republican party apparatus will never allow that to happen.

    • Taylor Marsh 18 November 2010 at 3:55 pm #

      Best bet remains Romney – Rubio, barring any foreign policy eruption.

      That said, no one should doubt Sarah Palin has the fan power to push her through Iowa and South Carolina, then forward, again, barring any foreign policy eruption.

      Anything can happen.

      • fairmindedindependant 18 November 2010 at 9:02 pm #

        It just ticks me off so bad when I hear some say “The guys are going to stop her” the guys have no right to decide who runs and who don’t. I don’t think people are going to like it if they mock Sarah Palin with any sexist rants !!! Sarah Palin has way more influence than Christine O Donnell, Sarah was the first republican woman to be put on a national ticket and well as only the second woman in American history, as well as being Alaskas first woman governor.

        • pmichael 19 November 2010 at 5:46 am #

          Sarah Palin was the Republican Party’s “Hail Mary Pass” in 2008. In 2012 she’ll be their “Punt!. Just my opinion, but if you think the ‘Good ole Boys’ network is going to change in that short a period of time – I think you’re naive. Sorry. But I honestly wish it wasn’t so.

  19. pmichael 18 November 2010 at 2:58 pm #

    I have to laugh when I read these “Obama versus Palin” conversations. Sarah has quite a few very powerful and very rich Republican men she’ll have to get through before that happens. These gentlemen are simply going to turn her into another Christine O’Donnell and trounce her. What I said a long time ago applies even more now. “Let her talk.” She may catch a phrase now and then (like a blind cat catching a mouse) – such as “death panels” – but every time she writes a book or makes a video (such as the show which was *supposed* to be “Palin’s Alaska” – but turned out to instead be attacking her neighbor, staging a skit to prove that boys aren’t allowed upstairs [too bad you didn't have that rule two years ago, heh Sarah?], and literally finding Alaska doing a bunch of things she’d obviously never done before. Oh and loved in the new book how she attacked American Idol for putting people out there who couldn’t actually sing. Like Bristol can dance?? LOL
    Sarah Palin is highly entertaining – but so is Rush Limbaugh. BOTH are a joke to any intelligent liberal and in the coming election, Republican men will not let it happen. She will be dropped by the rightwing just as they did O’Donnell. She thought the Dems had fangs? *L*

    • getty1206 18 November 2010 at 9:44 pm #

      Oh my. After all you have witnessed and you still underestimate her? Good luck with that!

      • pmichael 18 November 2010 at 11:20 pm #

        I carefully gave the facts I have witnessed and there are many many more. As one ‘elderly’ rightwing lady told me today, “I’m getting as tired of that crazy woman as I am Betty White.”

        Along with regularly making a fool of herself (like that wonderful quote in her first book ‘from’ Coach John Wooden about his ancentors dieing for their country – which was later determined to actually be from Native activist John WoodenLeg – talking about his ancestors at Little Big Horn LOL) –
        Sarah is also “peaking too soon.”

    • cjoblak@hotmail.com 19 November 2010 at 10:53 am #

      The Democrat women and Republican women should unite for the Common Goal of beating the Old boys club. The world would be a better place.

  20. cjoblak@hotmail.com 18 November 2010 at 5:12 pm #

    We shall see, michael, we shall see.

  21. nzanh 18 November 2010 at 5:41 pm #

    Kudos to Taylor for being the “fair and balanced” of the blogosphere. I applaud her ability to acknowledge Sarah Palin, though she is the antithesis of her politics. I supported Hillary because I believed her to be the best man for the job. I still think that we would have been better off. Though I was open to being pleasantly surprised with an Obama presidency, all of my worst suspicions about this man are coming true. I wish there was a scenario that would make Hillary challenge Obama the incompetent but I don’t see it. Saying that, if the choice is between Sarah Palin and Obama, I know I will be voting for Sarah. I liked what she was doing up here in Alaska. She may not be as sharp as Hillary but she has the ability to surround herself with good people and let them do what they do best. She reminds me of Reagan in that way. She talks a good conservative line but I saw her govern like a moderate. I think I could live with that.

    • pmichael 18 November 2010 at 5:52 pm #

      and if the choice is between Palin or Obama/Clinton ?

      (please note, I did not ask if you thought that would happen – just how you might vote if it did ;-) )

      • nzanh 18 November 2010 at 7:41 pm #

        OMG, that’s a hard one! You know what they say and I think it’s true that people vote the head of the ticket. If I thought that there was a good chance Obama would leave office before completing his term and early on, I could envision voting and Obama/Clinton ticket. Most of us mortals don’t have that kind of foreknowledge however, including myself, so chances are good that I’d probably vote for Palin anyway.

        • pmichael 18 November 2010 at 8:09 pm #

          even if Obama/Clinton 2012 would probably mean Clinton 2016 ? (which would be likely)

  22. pmichael 18 November 2010 at 8:32 pm #

    I find it interesting Sarah (in an obvious attempt to ‘capture’ a Founding Father) quotes Thomas Paine in the book dedication. She really needs to look into these things as Thomas Paine, like Jefferson, was a Deist and I doubt she’d appreciate his other quotes, such as:

    “The opinions I have advanced … are the effect of the most clear and long-established conviction that the Bible and the Testament are impositions upon the world, that the fall of man, the account of Jesus Christ being the Son of God, and of his dying to appease the wrath of God, and of salvation, by that strange means, are all fabulous inventions, dishonorable to the wisdom and power of the Almighty; that the only true religion is Deism.”

  23. pondskipper 18 November 2010 at 9:04 pm #

    Wow I drifted past this site today having not visited it for some time and find a strange collective fantasy has taken over. Apart from a vague longing or a very real desire to see a women stick it to the men (which I share) are there any solid reasons to believe Palin can get anywhere in the primaries let alone win the White House? Her numbers are poor. Sure her favourability with Republicans is good (88% currently)but there a big difference between liking someone and supporting them for President. In most of the polling I’ve seen from the states only 1 in 4 republicans support her for the nominations. Her latest figures amongst independents are awful (35% favourability, the lowest they’ve been) and most moderate democrats would rather poke their eyes out with a rusty stick than vote for her (all but 15% anyway)Its all very well Palin being ‘mavericky’ and running in her own way but to win the nomination she has to win the primary and she has to do that under the rules that the Party sets. Yes I know the primaries are still along way off and things can change but I suspect as GOP members start to concentrate more on who should get the Republican nomination and challange Obama things will not get easier. The economy will be the main issue (81% said it was their main vote decider in the 2010 midterms) it always is and especially when the economy is struggling. I find it hard to believe Palin can beat Romney/Huckabee/Pawlenty in a debate on the economy – my grandma could beat Palin in a debate on the economy on her present showings. Having Palin in the primaries would certainly be fun but her chances of winning at the moment look poor.She needs to do som serious preparation and work if she is going to run (which personally I doubt) you can’t tweet the debates!

    • Taylor Marsh 18 November 2010 at 11:00 pm #

      For me, this has nothing to do with a woman being president. It has to do with the fact that Sarah Palin is the strongest force in Republican politics today. It’s inarguable.

      Palin’s politics are obviously not mine, so I take issue with her on that front, but there are many reasons to think she can run and could win the nomination. Start with Iowa and South Carolina.

      The other issue is that her fans may propel her to run.

      You also seem to completely ignore what drives primary elections: emotions and the base.

      The Republican elite are scared to death she’ll get in the race, so they’ve started the Sarah Cost Us the Senate meme. But the Senate was never in play in any serious way. The insiders know they have to stop her before she decides to run, because afterward it will be hard to stop the energy behind her, which will take on power of it’s own.

      I’ve been writing this for a long time. Long before people like Mark Halperin started weighing in:

      Sarah Palin in ’12? Why She’s for Real

      http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2003944,00.html

      It’s absolutely stunning to me that people forget the story of George W. Bush, someone who beat Dems twice. The big difference is that Bush had political pedigree and the Republican intelligentsia behind him. Sarah Palin doesn’t have either, but in the current political era that may be to her benefit.

  24. getty1206 18 November 2010 at 9:50 pm #

    Taylor, I concur with SmoothJazz. I, as you know, check in almost every day, too, because I want to get the liberal perspective. Not some irrationa rant, but someone who really has it together and is…well, all the things SmoothJazz said. I tell people I know who want to read both sides of an issue, “To get an intelligent and fair liberal view, you must include TaylorMarsh.com in your daily readings…I trust the woman…don’t always agree with her, but I trust her.” And that trust I have in someone to be fair is the most important thing I can ask for when I read or listen to anybody’s opinion/viewpoint.
    Thank you once again, Taylor. Your piece on Sarah Palin was more than fair.

  25. M Simon 18 November 2010 at 10:58 pm #

    What you are all leaving out in your political calculations of Sarah is her husband Todd. He works very closely with her. VERY closely. And he is a staunch libertarian in the “Libertarian Republican” mode. In fact the site Libertarian Republican is a Palin fanatic site.

    Palin in her private life is very social conservative – as is Ron Paul. Both are social liberals (as in “leave us alone”) politically. Palin’s main differences with Paul are in the area of foreign policy. Palin is for a strong national defense – she very aware of the threat from the jihadis.

    As to her ability in the political arena – I have written a short piece on that. I have been told it is most amusing.

    http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2010/11/is-sarah-palin-good-or-is-she-lucky.html

    She is not an Old Republican social conservative. i.e. “we need a law”.

    Do not misunderestimate her. You might find yourself refudiated.

    • pmichael 18 November 2010 at 11:28 pm #

      It’s difficult to “misunderestimate” (love the Bushism *L*) – someone who is so ridiculous she’d probably name Todd as her VP (because we work so close) ;-)

      Anyone who thinks Palin could get nominated has no respect for the right-wing ‘machine’ headed by the white male contigent.

  26. pondskipper 19 November 2010 at 10:20 am #

    Taylor if you mean by strongest the one who gets the most media attention and the one who has the most vocal and passionate followers then yes I agree with you Sarah Palin is the ‘strongest force in Republican politics today’. However there is a stronger one and that is the Republican’s desire to win the White House and make Obama a one term President and the majority of the Republican Party much as they admire and like her do not seem to believe Palin is the candidate to do it. Yes she has enthusiastic followers pushing her to run and they may help her get a good result in the Iowa caucus (third would be good, second would be excellent) although the New Hampshire Primary will be tougher for her. South Carolina isn’t looking that good for her, I’d be interested to know why you think it is. I don’t underestimate the part emotion plays in primaries but I don’t underestimate the part cold economic reality plays also. Palin is seen as influencial because she is seen as leading the Tea Party Movement. But the TPM is a fiscal conservative movement at heart and Palin’s platform is based on social conservative issues. When the economy is at best weak and unemployment is high the election is going to be fought on fiscal not social issues. Palin’s performance is weak here and that will show in the debates and interviews making that part of her base fragile if she seems to stumble. I remember the story of George W well. As I recall he won the first election only by a Supreme Court ruling and the re-election largely because of post 9/11 sentiment and the country being at war neither of which I think (pray) will rescue a candidate in 2012.