The United States economy ended the year by adding 103,000 jobs in December and with a lower unemployment rate, the Labor Department said Friday, but as thousands of Americans gave up looking for work, the numbers suggested that joblessness could continue to weigh on the recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent last month from 9.8 percent, its lowest rate since July 2009, the department said in its monthly report. But the figures also showed that the civilian labor force declined by 260,000 in December, as many Americans stopped applying for jobs. – U.S. Added 103,000 Jobs Last Month
The good news is that Pres. Obama is ticking up in approval, however Gallup reports that a small majority (46% to 40%) want to repeal health care. The bad news is that it’s been down hill for the Democratic Party since 2008, with every year since Pres. Obama was elected, showing a decline in Democratic party identification culminating in the worst numbers in 22 years. Question is whether the identification matters to Democrats as long as Pres. Obama’s chances of getting a second term improve.
In 2010, 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, down five percentage points from just two years ago and tied for the lowest annual average Gallup has measured in the last 22 years. While Democrats still outnumber Republicans by two points, the percentage identifying as independents increased to 38%, on the high end of what Gallup has measured in the last two decades.
Segue to the jobs number with the unemployment rate falling, though it’s unfortunately coupled with the reality that some Americans just gave up looking for jobs.
Unsurprisingly, Republicans remain below Democrats, with not much excitement on i.d., except for the Tea Party contingent, which was the only energy in the midterms, saving Republicans from themselves.
However, under Pres. Obama, OFA and Tim Kaine’s DNC, not only has there been no allegiance to Democratic Party messaging and values, it’s very hard to tell what Democrats stand for today, except compromise, capitulation and making deals with conservatives like extending the Bush tax cuts, all of which has taken Democrats to the right, but after midterms, also the country.
So, is anyone surprised that in the last 22 years there has never been a lower number of people who choose to identify with the Democratic Party? Nobody’s looking out for the working class, let alone the poor.
Obama’s signature legislative compromise on health care has yielded details coming due that won’t help him going forward. For one, and as Howard Dean and many of us predicted, the individual mandate continues to be a loser and energy for killing it is building, with Dems in trouble for ’12 supporting this action. Additionally, Blue Shield’s latest move in California is a stunner that will simply fuel conservatives’ marketing on their repeal efforts (even if they ultimately fail and have to settle for starving the program), with the new Speaker very likely to be a more formidable foe than originally anticipated. From the LA Times:
Another big California health insurer has stunned individual policyholders with huge rate increases — this time it’s Blue Shield of California seeking cumulative hikes of as much as 59% for tens of thousands of customers March 1. … San Francisco-based Blue Shield said the increases were the result of fast-rising healthcare costs and other expenses resulting from new healthcare laws.
However, all the capitulation has given Pres. Obama a 50% approval, because it’s easy to be liked when you’re not standing up and making waves. The new approval something the President hasn’t enjoyed in quite a while. The news of Bill Daley taking over as chief of staff will also push Wall Street to give the President another chance.
Meanwhile, the Democratic activist base and voters who believe in their message have never been more in the cold. Obama continuing to bet they’ll come home after seeing the alternative.
As things stand today, the Obama White House has absolutely no clue how to inspire economic growth or isn’t interested in economic fundamentals like trade policy and investments, with the Tea Party crowd and conservatives now in charge. Budget cuts and spending caps are fine, but as the party of no ideas, the Republicans, meets President Obama who hasn’t a plan, scapegoats for our economic ills abound. With the additions of Daley, but also Clinton consigliere Gene Sperling, hopes are that this will change, however, it will be with a twist for Democrats.
First Obama came for the federal unions, now Cuomo is coming after state workers, the chirpy call for more tax cuts the Democratic mantra. “Morning Joe” is now a cacophony of caterwauling about “rich” union employees. Ironic from a group who touted tax cuts for the rich as the answer. Even Joe Scarborough is ranting about “irresponsible” police unions in Newark, as Democratic Mayor Cory Booker asks them to suck up cuts. They’re risking their lives while the wealthiest get a tax cut, but Mr. Scarborough, who’s a nice, well meaning guy (I’ve had enough one-on-one exchanges to know this first hand) not only wants to demagogue cops, but calls them “irresponsible.” The economic confusion on “Morning Joe” is like watching a squirrel chase. The targeting of unions now the in thing to do on both sides of the aisle.
Want to bet that Obama and Republicans, with Daley’s help, come to a compromise on education?
Meanwhile, it was the best year ever for the Wall Street fat cats in 2010, the same people Pres. Obama and Democrats in both Houses handed tax cuts, while leaving the “99ers” out in the cold, some likely literally.
But that’s okay, because the Democratic Party isn’t Tim Kaine or Obama Inc.’s concern. They’re targeting Independents, Obama’s new base.
Pres. Obama is looking stronger as his reelection team gears up, no matter how tattered the Democratic Party is on purpose and principles.
Ambition and political ego knows no bounds, with the presidency the ultimate political prize that must be kept at all cost. There are simply too many think tanks, foundations and organizations sucking on this teat. Feeding the frenzy is Obama Inc., a political organization without a core ideological compass that never met a principle it wouldn’t compromise to win, something the Democratic Party idealists and activists have now seen first hand.
Hey, but if you’re not in power you can’t implement your policy priorities, right? The problem is that even when Pres. Obama had a full majority his first instinct was to make a conservative compromise without ever fighting for the ultimate before making a deal on the possible. It may keep Obama in power, but so far it’s done squat for the Democratic Party.
If it gives Pres. Obama a better chance at a second term, as the old saying goes, it will, however, be mission accomplished.
Why is it *good* news that Obama is up in the polls?
It’s absolutely good news for Pres. Obama, that’s inarguable.
TM NOTE: The first two comments here are from yesterday when a programming glitch uploaded this essay in draft form.
“It (Obama’s ‘conservative compromise’) may keep Obama in power, but so far it’s done squat for the Democratic Party.” – TM
Yep. And I’m skeptical that gaining a second term will change things. The first year and a half will be spent anticipating the mid-terms, and the last two anticipating 2012, along with the usual lame duckiness that often characterizes the ending of a WH gig.
On the other hand, who knows? Maybe a second term Obama would suddenly grow a left wing … ? I know, very unlikely.
IF I RECALL IKE DIDNT DO SQUAT FOR HIS PARTY BUT KEPT HIS APPROVALS UP TO WIN AGAIN IN 56. his very moderate positions ran against the conservative gop wing but he left office popular. i know obama aint ike but its a thought
Look at George W. Bush, who inspired the Tea Party, beginning with Ron Paul.
Obama bringing on William Daley is a good start for him and sends a message to Wall Street & Republicans, both of whom were very pleased.
As for a lefty, Gene Sperling’s appointment is a progressive move, even more so when you compare him to Larry Summers.
Joyce, Obama doesn’t need a “left wing.” He needs Independents, while keeping his based appeased.
Oh, and one more thing I forgot to add. The National Journal’s article today:
http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/in-2012-obama-may-need-a-new-coalition-20110105?page=1
Fully 60 percent of whites nationwide backed Republican candidates for the House of Representatives; only 37 percent supported Democrats, according to the National Election Poll exit poll conducted by Edison Research. Not even in Republicans’ 1994 congressional landslide did they win that high a percentage of the white vote.
Moreover, those results may understate the extent of the white flight from the Democratic Party, according to a National Journal analysis of previously unpublished exit-poll data provided by Edison Research.
I don’t expect him to grow the left wing, no. He’s never wanted one. I’m guessing he’ll continue doing what he has all along, and yep, that requires significant numbers of “independents.” Though I will add that as I consider myself a liberal independent, he still won’t have my vote
Paging Donna Brazile!
May 2008 on CNN:
BRAZILE: Well, Lou, I have worked on a lot of Democratic campaigns, and I respect Paul. But, Paul, you’re looking at the old coalition. A new Democratic coalition is younger. It is more urban, as well as suburban, and we don’t have to just rely on white blue-collar voters and Hispanics. We need to look at the Democratic Party, expand the party, expand the base and not throw out the baby with the bathwater.”
Yep, they have the coalition but it seems to be a worthless one.
Very clearly Obama is a disaster for the Democratic Party. Then, Obama has always been about Obama.
Great article about Obama’s narcissism here…
American Narcissus
The vanity of Barack Obama
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/american-narcissus_516686.html
The Weekly Standard? Seriously?
Good grief.
Read the article.
Not to defend the President (although he DID turn out to be the centrist we all expected him to be) but the Democrats did preside over one of the worst economies since the great Depression. Couple that with obstructionist Senate Republicans that forced Democrats to compromise with the likes of Lincoln, Ben Nelson and Lieberman to pass anything. You always look weak when you have to negotiate with yourself, especially when you toss aside your ideals in the process. Republicans did a fantastic job of exposing the internal fractiousness of the Democratic party, and the Democrats didn’t help themselves out by exhibiting their usual timidity.
All in all they look unfocused, feckless and weak, which is to say, the way they normally do.
Going after Independents in this way only works if you assume that all Independents are actually secret Republicans. The concept that many Independents are liberals who have given up on the Democratic party (as many posters here seem to be)is not considered in this approach. I think that many Independents are more disappointed in and pissed at Obama, and moving to the right is not going to get their vote.
Gallup in June 2010 breaks down Independents the following way:
Moderates 41%
Conservative 36%
Liberal 19%
It should also be mentioned that even thow Republicans, Wall Street, and the Chamber of Commerce among others are ‘pleased’ by some of Obama’s recent moves, that doesn’t make them BFF.
Boehner should fake a turn to the left and play with BO’s mind. I say “fake” because the Repugs aren’t capable of letting go of their abolish-all-taxes and starve-the-government mantras.
I believe theres a chance President Obama will be reelected again, but this time I hope there will be more people to vote for, I hope for a independent canididate besides Nader !! People are leaving in both parties in droves, and I really hope for a multi-party system soon !! Were screwed if the same two parties that don’t represent anything but the RICH !! I also accept the republicans to go after eachother in the upcoming primaries !! Which will proberly will work well for Obama.
Well, I for one, think those numbers for Obama are way off. I’m wondering if there’s a Bradley effect or something going on because a President with his approval numbers should not have lost over 60 seats in the house. Those kinds of losses are for Presidents with numbers in the 30′s.
Did you buy his robotic pleas for a minute? Nobody did. He threw the entire party under the bus.
That was obvious to me.
I can’t quite grasp why the Democrat party actually would imagine that many people would be loyal. They have offended darn near everyone in the entire country.
This business of calling entire states too “stupid” to be taken seriously was truly letting anti-middle-America out of the bag.
And, yes, people did notice.
And they are downright offended, too.