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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Tag Archives | Iraq

Of Iraq and Iran

Michael Ware on Iraq.


The wild speculation needs to stop. But with Fox
\”News\”
blaring things like White House Holding Back Report
Detailing Iran\’s Meddling in Iraq,
can there be any doubt there\’s an agenda
already afoot? Conservative bloggers are grabbing hold. Fox is saying that the report is being held back for fear of
Ahmadinejad\’s reaction. Are they kidding?

Read Juan
Cole
.


Note that the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which controls
Najaf, is Bush\’s major ally in Iraq even though it is close to Iran. Those
fighting the Najaf government and Iraqi army forces were anti-Iranian. Rightwing
bloggers seem confused on these points.

Robert Baer brings up the IRGC, Iran\’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, five
of whom are still in custody and charged with helping Iraqis kill Americans.


I called up an American contractor in Baghdad who runs convoys from Kuwait
every day and asked him just how much damage.\”Let me put it this way,\”he
said.\”In Basra today the currency is the Iranian toman, not the Iraqi
dinar.\”He said his convoys now are forced to pay a 40% surcharge to Shi\’a
militias and Iraqi police in the south, many of whom are affiliated with IRGC.

Are
the Iranians Out for Revenge?

Nobody should doubt that Iran is involved in Iraq. Look at a map. They share
a huge border. But the stories currently circulating simply aren\’t believable, though it\’s certainly not crazy to think Iran is training people. We just don\’t know anything for sure.

Wouldn\’t it be ironic if the oil men in the White House revved up a real
incident with Iran, when all they really wanted to do was tweak the Iranians
enough to be able to put some of the blame on them for Iraq falling? As I\’ve
stipulated before, they didn\’t put Adm. Fallon in charge for nothing. But do the White
House oil men want gas at $5/gallon, as Jim Cramer has warned, with economic chaos not far behind?

The military escalation, aka build up, which Maliki says he does not want isn\’t
for Iraq. It\’s for Iran. But is it all for show? Unfortunately, Bush has earned
the reputation he\’s got and many are convinced he\’s ready to rumble all the
way into Iran. I am not. (Let me add to be clear, this does not preclude airstrikes. But boots on the ground will not happen.)

There is no way the Joint Chiefs or any respectable commander in U.S. military
would tell Bush to pull the trigger on Iran. It would be utter madness. Our
soldiers in Iraq would be slaughtered.

Baer wonders if the Iranians are out for revenge. It could be about making them sweat. Ahmadinejad is at a low point in Iran.
All this revving up might be to make the Iranian power bench and the mullahs nervous.
It\’s hardball played by a team known to have an itchy trigger finger.

Somebody needs to start talking or making concessions. The former is out and the latter depends on just how weak Ahmadinejad is.

It doesn\’t get any more dangerous than this.

UPDATE (1:16 p.m.): Tucker Carlson has decided to mimic Fox. He just had an interview with Arnaud de Borchgrave the editor in chief of UPI on Iran. Borchgrave said flatly that we are \”headed to a military showdown\” with Iran as \”part of the war on terror.\” That\’s not all, as for what\’s in the works and what Congress would do about it, Borchgrave gets awfully specific.


\”As I understand it, it\’s a three night campaign of bombing; some 700 aim points throughout Iran, including 58 that would require deep penetration bombs. Of course, there would be a lot of shouting, but all of that would be over rather quickly.\” – Arnaud de Borchgrave

UPDATE (8:44 a.m.): The Pentagon has stopped selling F-14 parts to Iran. Good move. More of this type action, please. On another note, we may see target practice from sea on certain points, but Bush will not invade Iran. We need a larger strategy than war on this one. Stopping F-16 sales is a start. Diplomacy would also be nice.

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Avoiding Kaganistan

guest post by Mash



"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;"

- King Henry V at the siege of Harfleur, Act III, Scene 1, William Shakespeare\’s "Henry V"

Iraq is not France and Baghdad is not Harfleur. And George W Bush is not Henry the Fifth. The rumor is that George W Bush is enamored of the notion of a "surge" in Iraq – a "surge" that will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in Iraq. It is all very manly. The word itself invokes a powerful rush of strength, a rush of victorious energy, a rising tide of manliness – in short, very George W Bush.

After the Iraq Study Group cut Mr. Bush from his secure "stay the course" moorings by making the fantasy of "progress" in Iraq unsustainable, a change in direction at the White House was inevitable. Waiting in the wings were the neo-conservatives with their pet theory of neo-colonialism at the barrel of a gun. Building upon their first disaster in Iraq, some neo-conservatives are finding their inner-Kissingers in full bloom. Just like Kissinger, who has yet to quench his appetite for war crimes, the neo-Kissingers are also finding a willing, albeit less discriminating, ear in the Oval Office.

Enter Fred Kagan and the "surge". Not too long ago, Mr. Kagan was of the opinion that Iraq was going swimmingly, and Mr. Bush should stay the course:



If the U.S. were to keep its troop levels constant over the next 18 months, the manpower available to perform all of these critical tasks would increase dramatically as Iraqi forces became available to handle basic security functions.

Unfortunately, it does not appear that the Bush administration favors such a course. Repeated rumors–including a report about U.S. plans to withdraw, leaked by the British Ministry of Defense recently, and statements by the new U.S. ambassador to Iraq–indicate that the administration would prefer to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq as Iraqi forces become available in larger numbers.

Understandable though that desire is, it is wrongheaded. Now, above all, is the moment when determination and perseverance are most needed. If the U.S. begins pulling troops out prematurely, it runs the risk of allowing the insurgency to grow, perhaps becoming what it now is not–a real military threat to the government.

If, on the other hand, Bush stays the course and pays the price for success, the prospects for winning will get better every day.

Mr. Kagan, always an advocate of more troops in Iraq, was more concerned about Mr. Bush paying the price for success than our troops paying the price for Mr. Bush\’s "success".

Mr. Kagan has been hawking his "surge" idea for a while now.  In the spring of this year Mr. Kagan proposed a two-phase plan for "victory":



With an additional 7 brigades devoted to active combat operations, it should be possible to conduct clear-hold-build operations in two phases, totaling perhaps 12 to 18 months of significant combat, followed by a longer-term commitment of substantially smaller numbers of "leave-behind" forces. The general concept of the operation is to move from the outside in.

The first phase of the operation would clear the three river valleys except for Ramadi. U.S. forces would advance town by town from the upper Euphrates, upper Tigris, and upper Diyala rivers toward Baghdad, clearing and holding as they went and leaving behind a significant ISF presence, leavened with U.S. forces, to consolidate.

When clearing operations were completed, the ISF troops that had participated would remain in place to consolidate, supported by about 5 American battalions (2.5 brigades). That would leave about 9 battalions (4.5 brigades), in addition to those already deployed in Iraq, to continue active operations in the second phase: clearing Ramadi and the southern suburbs of Baghdad, and beginning to clear Baghdad itself.

It may be that the fastest way to turn Iraq over to the Iraqis and draw down American forces is not a steady decline of troop numbers. Instead, the fastest possible "exit strategy" may require one last surge effort to bring the insurgency down to a level that the indigenous forces can handle on their own. [Emphasis added by me.] 

He is old school – he believes that a determined local population can be "pacified" by an occupying power if the right amount of force is applied and the right number of locals are killed. Unfortunately, history is replete with examples of insurgencies that have outlasted the occupying power\’s will to fight. Mr. Kagan and his neo-Kissingers would argue that if only the occupier would have stayed longer and been more brutal, the outcome might have been different. If only.

My hope is that not a single American soldier has to lose his or her life in the service of armchair ideologues like Fred Kagan and their pet theories. It appears that the joint chiefs are making an effort to put an end to this hair-brained scheme called a "surge". Let us hope they succeed.

While the press has been obsessed with the "surge", the International Crisis Group released their proposal for rescuing Iraq from the abyss. In a report entitled "After Baker-Hamilton: What to Do in Iraq" the ICG lays out 27 recommendations that deserve serious attention. However, the report was released with barely any press attention at all.

I will have a more detailed post on the ICG report tomorrow, but for now, I wanted to give the report some airtime on the blogosphere.

While the ICG report agrees with the ISG report that the situation in Iraq is dire, it takes issue with the ISG recommendations for not going far enough:



Slowly, incrementally, the realisation that a new strategy is needed for Iraq finally is dawning on U.S. policy-makers. It was about time. By underscoring the U.S. intervention’s disastrous political, security, and economic balance sheet, and by highlighting the need for both a new regional and Iraqi strategy, the Baker-Hamilton report represents an important and refreshing moment in the country’s domestic debate. Many of its key – and controversial – recommendations should be wholly supported, including engaging Iran and Syria, revitalising the Arab-Israeli peace process, reintegrating Baathists, instituting a far-reaching amnesty, delaying the Kirkuk referendum, negotiating the withdrawal of U.S. forces with Iraqis and engaging all parties in Iraq.

But the change the report advocates is not nearly radical enough, and its prescriptions are no match for its diagnosis. What is needed today is a clean break both in the way the U.S. and other international actors deal with the Iraqi government, and in the way the U.S. deals with the region: in essence, a new multinational effort to achieve a new political compact between all relevant Iraqi constituents.

A new course of action must begin with an honest assessment of where things stand. Hollowed out and fatally weakened, the Iraqi state today is prey to armed militias, sectarian forces and a political class that, by putting short term personal benefit ahead of long term national interests, is complicit in Iraq’s tragic destruction. Not unlike the groups they combat, the forces that dominate the current government thrive on identity politics, communal polarisation, and a cycle of intensifying violence and counter-violence. Increasingly indifferent to the country’s interests, political leaders gradually are becoming warlords. What Iraq desperately needs are national leaders.

As it approaches its fifth year, the conflict also has become both a magnet for deeper regional interference and a source of greater regional instability. Instead of working together toward an outcome they all could live with – a weak but united Iraq that does not present a threat to its neighbours – regional actors are taking measures in anticipation of the outcome they most fear: Iraq’s descent into all-out chaos and fragmentation. By increasing support for some Iraqi actors against others, their actions have all the wisdom of a self-fulfilling prophecy: steps that will accelerate the very process they claim to wish to avoid.

The report\’s recommendations are novel because they put three issues squarely on the table: the withdrawal of American troops and American bases, movement from fighting the insurgency to protecting the civilian population, and stepping away from supporting one group over another in Iraq\’s civil war. These three issues, it seems to me, are essential ingredients of any stable future for Iraq.

The report offers recommendations for Iraq, for its neighbors, for the international community and for the United States. Among its recommendations are some urgent steps that United States should take to stem the violence:



18.  Adopt a less aggressive military posture in Iraq by:



(a)  redirecting resources to a program of embedding U.S. troops in Iraqi units; and

(b)  moving away from fighting the insurgency to focusing on protecting the civilian population, and in particular halting blind sweeps that endanger civilians, antagonise the population and have had limited effect on the insurgency.

21.  Avoid steps to engineer a cabinet reshuffle aimed at side-lining Muqtada al-Sadr, which would further inflame the situation.

23.  Free and compensate Iraqi prisoners detained by the U.S. without charge.

24.  Compensate Iraqis who have suffered as a result of the U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign.

26.   Abandon the super-embassy project and move a reduced embassy to a more neutral location.

27.  Publicly deny any intention of establishing long-term military bases or seeking to control Iraq’s oil.

The recommendations are aimed at fostering reconciliation and shifting to a less belligerent posture. In that they are the exact opposite of the "surge" approach. While the ICG recommendations may save lives, the "surge" is guaranteed to take lives, both Iraqi and American.

The goal of the ICG report is the stabilization of Iraq and the reduction of the American footprint in Iraq. These twin goals can serve as the underpinnings of a strategy to extricate ourselves from George W Bush\’s mess and avoid the "surge" that leads to the quagmire of Kaganistan.

 

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The U.S. Body Count in Iraq

by Winslow T. Wheeler, Director, Straus Military Reform Project

In the month of October 2006, 104 Americans in uniform died in the war in
Iraq
. That makes this October the fourth most deadly month in Iraq for Americans
since the war began in March 2003. (In April 2004, 135 Americans were killed;
in November 2004 there were 137 killed; and in January 2005, it was 107). While
it is impersonal to manipulate the statistics, it is also informative.

The Department of Defense (DOD) has made available significant data on the
dead and wounded from the war. Among others, two particularly useful entities
have analyzed DOD’s and other data to help us understand the numbers.
One is the website for the Iraq
Coalition Casualty Count
; another is a study released last August by the
Population Studies Center of the University of Pennsylvania: “Mortality
of American Troops in Iraq.” It can be found here.
The material below summaries their data.

Total Dead: As of Nov. 1, 2006, 2,817 Americans have died in Iraq of all causes;
239 military personnel have been killed from other countries (U.K.: 120; “other:”
119), for a grand total of 3,055 casualties from the coalition forces. (See
these and more data at here.)

The data at www.icasualties.org for American military fatalities include:

  • 2,268 deaths from hostile fire, which occurs in many forms; and
  • 550 non-combat deaths.

Among the deaths resulting from hostile fire:

  • improvised explosive devices (IEDs) caused at least 998, or 35 percent of
    all deaths, which exceeds all other causes.

Although the other subcategories at www.icasulaties.org includes some causes
listed more than once and other poorly organized or unexplained entries (from
what DOD appears to have provided), other hostile fire causes attributed in
the data include:

  • unspecified hostile fire: 425, or 15 percent;
  • small arms fire: 272, or 10 percent;
  • mortar attacks: 85, or 3 percent;
  • rocket propelled grenades (RPGs): 104, or 4 percent;
  • cars bombs: 76, or 3 percent;
  • suicide car bombs: 54, or 2 percent;
  • other suicide bombers: 30, or 1 percent.

The leading cause of non-hostile deaths were vehicle accidents (201 deaths,
or 7 percent of the total). Other causes included:

  • helicopter accidents: 74, or 3 percent;
  • weapon accidents: 76, or 3 percent.
  • “friendly fire:” 8, or 0.3 percent;
  • homicides: 7, or 0.2 percent; and
  • suicides: 3, or 0.1 percent.

    (See various details here.)

Wounded: Contrary to the approximate 20,000 wounded that the press typically
reports, the www.icasualties.org website reports the following:

  • 14,414 wounded – no medical air transport required;
  • 6,273 wounded – medical air transport required;
  • 6,430 non-hostile injuries – medical air transport required;
  • 17,662 diseases – medical air transport required.

Assuming medical air transport is an indicator of serious wounds, injuries,
or sickness, these data can also be described as follows:

  • 6,273 seriously wounded;
  • 6,430 seriously injured in non-hostile events (e.g. vehicle accidents)
  • 17,662 seriously ill (e.g. serious heat prostration)
  • A total of 30,365 seriously wounded, injured, or sick – all causes.

For those not receiving medical air transport:

  • 14,414 wounded who could be treated without air evacuation.

Grand Total: 44,779.

Thus, counting all forms of wounds, injuries, and illness, the total “casualties”
are more than twice the number typically reported in the press.

Branch of Service Fatalities: The distribution of U.S. fatalities by branch
of service, as reported by www.icasualties.org, is as follows:

  • Army (active duty): 1,435
  • Marines (active duty): 712
  • Army National Guard: 377
  • Army Reserve: 103
  • Marine Reserve: 97
  • Navy: 46
  • Air Force: 25
  • Navy Reserve: 13
  • Coast Guard: 1
  • Air National Guard: 1
  • Department of the Army: 4
  • Department of the Air Force: 2
  • Department of Defense: 1

    (See here.)

Using data for the period between March 21, 2003, and March 31, 2006, the University
of Pennsylvania study provides some analysis of these numbers, as follows:

  • Compared to the war in Vietnam, the chances U.S. military personnel will
    be killed in Iraq are significantly lower. With 56,838 deaths over a period
    of 2,608,650 “person-years of exposure,” the Vietnam “death
    rate” was 21.8 per 1,000, compared to 3.9 for Iraq. Vietnam was 5.6
    times more deadly for deployed troops as Iraq. Reasons cited in the study
    for the difference are improvements in military medicine, faster evacuation
    to closer medical care, and more and better body armor. (It is also possible
    – but not reported in the study – that the nature of the combat
    in Vietnam was different – and perhaps more lethal. For example, U.S.
    combat training may now be better, or the enemy may have been more dangerous.)
  • The number of deaths compared to the number wounded was also higher in
    Vietnam; 0.24 in Vietnam; 0.13 in Iraq, presumably for the same reasons the
    study articulated.
  • The death rates for branch of service in Iraq also vary considerably:
    – the risk of death is greatest in Iraq for Marines (both active and reserve)
    at 8.5 per 1,000;
    – Army (active and reserve) personnel are experiencing 3.4 deaths per 1,000
    deployed;
    – Navy personnel are less exposed at a rate of 0.83;
    – Air Force personnel are the least exposed at a rate of 0.4.
  • The average death rate across all services is 3.9.
  • Put another way, the chance of a deployed armed services member dying in
    Iraq is one out of every 255 per year.

The comparable death rate for military age civilian males in the U.S. is 1.5
per 1,000, about 40 percent less than that of military personnel in Iraq.

Rank: Generals and admirals in Iraq are safer than their age cohort is in America;
none have died in Iraq. However:

  • 30 majors, lieutenant colonels, and colonels have died;
  • 156 lieutenants and captains have died;
  • the vast majority of the dead are:
  • sergeants (738 dead); and
  • privates, corporals, and specialists (1,359 dead).

    (See the absolute data for all ranks here.)

The University of Pennsylvania study assessed the relative risk:

  • Army and Marine enlisted personnel have 40 percent and 36 percent higher
    mortality than all officers, respectively.
  • However, Army and Marine lieutenants, who typically lead combat patrols,
    have a higher mortality rate than more senior officers and enlisted personnel;
    Army and Marine lieutenants have a mortality rate 19 percent and 11 percent
    higher, respectively, than all personnel in their respective branches of service.

Gender: All but 64 of the deaths in Iraq have been males. With women not permitted
to hold positions primarily intended for combat, their mortality is 5.5 times
less that of males.

Race and Ethnicity: The University of Pennsylvania study reports that DOD’s
data do not make analysis of mortality across race and ethnicity easy; the study
did, however, find that:

  • Hispanics have a mortality rate 21 percent higher than non-Hispanics;
  • blacks have a mortality rate about 60 percent that of whites, and less
    than 50 percent the rate of “other” ethnicities (American Indian,
    others natives, and “multi-race.”)

The study did not explain the higher Hispanic mortality rate but did explain
the lower mortality rate for black personnel as a result of higher representation
in categories with less exposure to combat, such as the female gender and perhaps
technical or support services.

Other Categories: Icasualties.org reports a “partial list” of 367
civilian contractors from all non-Iraqi nationalities as fatalities and 116
fatalities among journalists from all nations.

As Republican and Democratic candidates for elective office position themselves
on the politics of the war in Iraq for advantage in the upcoming congressional
elections, it is useful to inform ourselves about who and how many are experiencing
the real risks. Currently, the politicians are waiting for a more favorable
environment after the elections to sort out what they are actually going to
do, if anything, about the war; meanwhile, the military personnel in Iraq –
all of them – have more important things to worry about.

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WOODWARD: Katrina Foreign Policy Laid Out in a Book

The man just doesn't care. Nothing can reach through his thick, stubborn skull.
Coming on four years in Iraq, Mr. Bush still doesn't understand that stay the
course isn't a plan and is just getting people killed. Hey, but as long as he
doesn't have to fight the fight he'll be happy. If only Laura and Barney support
him, he's in.

The title of the New York Times article is: Book
Says Bush Ignored Urgent Warning on Iraq
.

Well, if Bush is going to ignore a PDB stating BIN LADEN DETERMINED TO ATTACK
INSIDE U.S., it's unlikely he's going to give two hoots in Texas hell about an
Iraq warning.

Yesterday is gone. The heat is on. Now we learn that 2007
will be worse
in Iraq than this year.

First came FIASCO.

Now State of Denial, by Bob Woodward.

Evidently, Bush and Cheney knew it was
going to lay Iraq out so this time they wouldn't sit for their old friend Bob.

This book is long overdue, especially since Woodward has been kissing the king's
ring for years. The evisceration he took over the Plame event obviously went
deep and he decided he had to do something other the let the Administration
cherry pick the facts. If he didn't, his Watergate reputation would be gone forever. It's not something I'd give up easily, especially for this crowd.

From what's been written about in papers so far, Cheney comes off as part of
the tin foil crowd. Picture his aid in his pajamas calling the chief weapons
inspector very late at night.


Mr. Cheney was involved in the details of the hunt for illicit weapons, the
book says. One night, Mr. Woodward wrote, Mr. Kay was awakened at 3 a.m. by
an aide who told him Mr. Cheney’s office was on the phone. It says Mr.
Kay was told that Mr. Cheney wanted to make sure he had read a highly classified
communications intercept picked up from Syria indicating a possible location
for chemical weapons.

Desperation drips from the few tidbits leaking out about the book. The New
York Times bought an advance copy to get an early look (and evidently beat the Washington Post on their own story). The article travels
a different path from FIASCO and COBRA II, but with Woodward at the wheel the
outreach should be massive.

As for weapons, they knew in 2003 it was a bust.



The fruitless search for unconventional weapons caused tension between Vice
President Cheney’s office, the C.I.A. and officials in Iraq. Mr. Woodward
wrote that Mr. Kay, the chief weapons inspector in Iraq, e-mailed top C.I.A.
officials directly in the summer of 2003 with his most important early findings.

At one point, when Mr. Kay warned that it was possible the Iraqis might have
had the capability to make such weapons but did not actually produce them,
waiting instead until they were needed, the book says he was told by John
McLaughlin, the C.I.A.’s deputy director: “Don’t tell anyone
this. This could be upsetting. Be very careful. We can’t let this out
until we’re sure.”

Book
Says Bush Ignored Urgent Warning on Iraq

Finally, Condi the Incompetent just might get what she deserves. I say “finally,” because
like Bush, she has gotten a pass on her national security failings, which are
so monumental as to possibly convince people that women can't handle security issues. Let's face it, if she were a man she would
have gotten the Medal of Freedom and been shuffled off to a wingnut think tank
long ago.



The 537-page book describes tensions among senior officials from the very
beginning of the administration. Mr. Woodward writes that in the weeks before
the Sept. 11 attacks, Mr. Tenet believed that Mr. Rumsfeld was impeding the
effort to develop a coherent strategy to capture or kill Osama bin Laden.
Mr. Rumsfeld questioned the electronic signals from terrorism suspects that
the National Security Agency had been intercepting, wondering whether they
might be part of an elaborate deception plan by Al Qaeda.

On July 10, 2001, the book says, Mr. Tenet and his counterterrorism chief,
J. Cofer Black, met with Ms. Rice at the White House to impress upon her the
seriousness of the intelligence the agency was collecting about an impending
attack. But both men came away from the meeting feeling that Ms. Rice had
not taken the warnings seriously.

It is certain that Republicans and Bush will try to slam Woodward. But considering
they've been kissing his ass with access for years, there isn't much to complain
about.

No wonder Andy Card quit.

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Maliki in the Well

Annan:
Israel bombed UN base for hours

A Code Pink member (12:45 p.m. – link added) was dragged out of Prime Minister Maliki's speech this morning.
Bring the troops home now – end the occupation, was the basic message.
One has to wonder her fate if it would have happened in today's Iraq. With all
due respect to Maliki, we all know she wouldn't last very long, never mind his
nod to “women's rights” in his speech.

The Iraqi Prime Minister continued on.

Bush can't even keep security tight in the well of the House. Talk about losing
control. Speaking of that…


… Military officials said the U.S. contingent brought into Baghdad could
be as large as a brigade, which would mean 2,000 to 5,000 more troops joining
the 30,000 now deployed in the capital area. A reserve force held in Kuwait
has already moved largely into Iraq, so officials said additional U.S. forces
for Baghdad could come from areas recently passed to Iraqi control, such as
Muthanna province in the south or Mosul in the north. …

Bush
to Add Troops in Baghdad, Citing 'Terrible' Sectarian Strife

After the speech, CNN's Arwa Damon talked about how bad things really are in
Iraq. As for women's roles, they are “more restricted” and being threatened
by extremists. What we get from Maliki is happy talk, no doubt inspired by Cheney's
swift boot up his rear end after yesterday's frank discussion about Israel.

But did you get those numbers? So there will now be around 35,000 troops in
Baghdad. I know our troops are the best on planet earth, but someone please
tell me why 30,000 Iraqis can't do the job. Can you imagine the violence, the
anarchy if 30,000 troops can't get the job done?

Meanwhile, back in Lebanon, there's quite a dust up over Israel's target practice
of U.N. peacekeepers.

Now I'm no fan of Kofi Annan, but here's UNIFIL's
press release
from yesterday. You can find the rest of them here. UNIFIL was targeted as the enemy.

Frankly, things look grim for the Israelis. They have botched their handling
of this badly and are running out of time. They supposedly have a couple of weeks,
though I don't buy it. I think the countdown has begun and at the end of it
Hezbollah is going to come out stronger. For the life of me I don't understand
why Israel wasn't more prepared to move faster on the incursion. They had to
have known the world wouldn't sit by and watch the dismantling of Lebanon, at least not for too long.

The Bush administration and the Israelis need to come to grips with their hatred for terrorism, which we all share, and their incompetency in fighting it. These two camps can't seem to make it to the other side of their collective brain that is screaming: militarized foreign policy isn't working; time to try something else.

It's the fly syndrome. Trying the same thing day after day and not getting that it's not getting you anywhere. But we're humans, so we're supposed to be able to reason.

We've got duel tracks of terrible news for us today. First, Israel may barely
come out of Lebanon saving face for the second time. That means they'll likely
turn their embarrassment on Gaza. Good luck with that. Second, we're losing
Iraq in real time now. Both of these realities could turn our worlds upside
down, with everyone believing the U.S. and Israel have been broken on the battlefield.
Bush's solution? He's going to pass this mess on to the winner in 2008. Whomever
wants that job isn't right in the head.

Now, back to the circus. Oh, and by the way, Condi failed in Rome, or rather she got what she wanted: no ceasefire. More incompetence on top of utter ineptitude. Lovely.


I spoke to Mr Olmert and he definitely believes it was a mistake and has
expressed his deep sorrow, ” Mr Annan told a press conference in Rome.

“But the shelling started in the morning and went on until after 7pm.
You cannot imagine the anguish of the unarmed men and women peacekeepers who
were there.”

Annan:
Israel bombed UN base for hours

· UN chief proposes joint investigation
· No sign of ceasefire agreement
· Aid agencies criticize Blair

UPDATE (10:25 a.m.): …and for those of you comparing numbers.

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Deconstructing Hillary

The Warrior Queen is on the political war path.

Hillary isn't channeling Eleanor Roosevelt any longer. It's Margaret Thatcher
all the way. \”Warrior Queen\” here we come. That's how Andrew Sullivan
described her last week on the \”Chris Matthews Show,\” saying it may
be the way to victory for Hillary. It's a cinch that Americans aren't ever going
to elect a female dove for commander in chief, not in our lifetime, at least.

This is my take on it.

Since Senator Hillary Clinton got booed
at Take Back America for her position on Iraq, she's done some serious reevaluation. She had to. The boos
threw her and her team for a loop. In fact, it was the \”inevitability\”
tipping point. Now all bets are off.

I was there. I saw her face. It was obvious. If her jaw had been clamped any
tighter she would have crushed her teeth.

The next thing that surprised her was Senator John Kerry's incoming across her
bow, on the same day, the same stage, not too long after she was turned away. Now she's
firing back and so are others in her name.

The first thing she did was sign on to Levin-Reed in favor of a way of withdrawing
from Iraq. She'd not gone near that reality until she was booed. Did she get
the message that was delivered in D.C., but that is representative of most of the Democratic
Party? Your call. Levin-Reed was her only choice, because she simply would
never sign on to Kerry-Feingold. You see, it doesn't matter all the things Hillary
gets right, all the issues she triumphs. Because if in the middle of a presidential
campaign a military crisis occurs, the person leading Democrats simply must
be equal to kicking ass.

Next she hired Peter Daou, one of the most respected message handlers on the
web. He's working on her 2006 Senate race, but it can hardly hurt
going beyond that date. Peter has introduced me into a fascinating project,
which you'll know about soon enough. Anyone who reads the blogs knows who he
is and what he has to offer. Hillary was no dummy to hire him. She needs him.
It's also a reach out to the most powerful community on the web, the progressive
blogs
. But will we listen?

A question to consider: What will happen if Hillary gains power and becomes
the nominee without the biggest progressive blogs? (Is that even possible?) I wonder if anyone is thinking
about that one. Many discount her, but I simply do not.

The other thing to consider: Post being booed, Hillary became vulnerable in
a serious way she wasn't before. Now it's all out offense because she's lost
her inevitability. She's now showing significant movement in our direction, which is representative of mainstream America: we all want out of Iraq.

There is also blood in the water. The reality is that Senator Clinton could be headed for a very big fall if something isn't done.

So, in today's Post, two of Hillary's biggest fans, besides hubby Bill, one
of whom is actually working as a consultant to her, though it's not disclosed
in the editorial, has come out swinging on her behalf.


We've heard all this \”Hillary can't win stuff\” before. In fact,
the quotes above aren't from recent weeks but from six years ago, when many
pundits — and Democrats — said there was no way that Hillary could get elected
to the Senate. She won by 12 percentage points.

We don't know if Hillary is going to run for president, but as advisers who
have worked on the only two successful Democratic presidential campaigns in
the past couple of decades, we know that if she does run, she can win that
race, too.

Why? First, because strength matters. Our problems as a party are less ideological
than anatomical: Our candidates have been made to look like they have no backbone.
But the latest Post-ABC News poll shows that 68 percent of Americans describe
Hillary Clinton as a strong leader. That comes after years of her being in
the national crossfire. People know that Hillary has strong convictions, even
if they don't always agree with her. They also know that she's tough enough
to handle the viciousness of a national campaign and the challenges of the
presidency itself.

(snip)

Hillary's candidacy has the potential to reshape the electoral map for Democrats.
Others argue they can add to John Kerry's 20 states and 252 electoral votes
by adding Southern states, or Western or Midwestern, depending on their background.
Hillary has the potential to mobilize people in every region of the country.

Certainly she could win the states John Kerry did. But with the pathbreaking
possibility of this country's first female president, we could see an explosion
of women voting — and voting Democratic. States that were close in the past,
from Arkansas to Colorado to Florida to Ohio, could well move to the Democratic
column. It takes only one more state to win. …

The
Power of Hillary

I've been studying Hillary Clinton for a very long time, reading most the books
about her, from her own autobiography to the late Barbara
Olson
's to Gail
Sheehy
's and beyond. As an aside, Sheehy was in the audience at TBA to hear
Hillary's speech and the subsequent furor over it.

I'm one of the few people out here who believes Hillary can indeed win. As
for her power, nobody needs to be convinced of that reality.

But for the very first time she's no longer the one to beat, though she never was
out here in the blogosphere. Her position on Iraq has been untenable for many,
including myself, but her recent moves signal she's getting the message. She
still has a big problem, however, which Pachacutec outlined when some of Hillary's
own constituents tried to see their Senator. It
didn't go very well.

All the known Democratic names have challenges right now, starting with John
Kerry
, though even Jon Stewart has covered Kerry's new line of straight talk. \”Lie and die\” was a hit for Stewart as it was for many others. Kerry is not the same man that he was in 2004. Don't write him off.



KERRY: \”Stay the course\” is not a plan. And what this administration wants is to have a fake debate, as usual. Uh, they're–you hear the drumbeat on every television show from every commentator, \”cut and run, cut and run, cut and run, cut and run.\” That's their phrase. They've found their three words, they love to do that, and they're gonna try to make the elections in November a choice between \”cut and run\” or \”stay the course.\” That's not the choice. My plan is not \”cut and run.\” Their plan is \”lie and die.\”

Kerry says Republican Iraq plan is 'lie and die'

Few believe Russ Feingold can take it all
the way, regardless of his righteousness. Others are waiting to see if Al Gore jumps in. John Edwards is looking
good
. Others are putting up Mark Warner, whom I just do not get and doesn't
do it for me. The last time he talked about Iraq it was in the most circular
rhetoric that made me dizzy from the spin. We need that like we need another
Republican in the White House. Then there's Obama. But if we're talking outsiders, let's talk Brian Schweitzer.

No one is inevitable anymore, least of all Senator Hillary Clinton. But regardless
of all the talk about wanting a progressive candidate, most Democratic voters
still long for one thing and one thing only: a candidate who is electable.

Before Hillary's disastrous TBA speech she was touted as the one to beat. That is no longer the case. If she were,
James Carville and Mark Penn, a current adviser to Hillary's Senate campaign, wouldn't be pleading her case in the Post. Right now Hillary's on damage control, because if she loses her luster not only will she not be inevitable, but the choice to run in '08 will already be made and not by her.

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Taheri Not Trusted by the Real Experts

By on 01 June 2006

As several readers pointed out yesterday, some who chose to remain anonymous, Taheri was
on a pr blitz from the Washington Journal's C-SPAN show to NPR in some places.
Damage control takes effort. But why was Amir Taheri invited
to the White House
yesterday? After all, the only people who trust this guy are neocon wingnuts, because he sings their song. Bingo.

Justin Rood asks the same thing today, because given Taheri's lack of credibility, “doesn't
this make his White House visit all the more perplexing?”

As long as organizations like the Simon
Wiesenthal Center
back people like Taheri it's hard to imagine him not having
a seat at the grown ups table.

This follows the question I've been asking for days: Who is behind the
Iranian badge story? Why was it floated? The second question was answered when
Israeli P.M. Olmert showed up in America. As for the first question, just keep reading.

We certainly know that Ahmadinejad is amassing huge amounts of power, expanding
his Iranian Guards to control more elements of the government. Bob
Baer
said exactly that yesterday on MSNBC. But starting with Deadeye Dick,
the Administration has certainly elevated the Iranian president's status.

But Taheri wasn't at the White House talking about Iran. He was there as an “expert” on Iraq, which makes his piece
in the June edition of Commentary
even scarier. It's entitled “The Real Iraq,” of all things. Considering
Taheri's Iranian badge propaganda it's for sure we can't take this one seriously
either. He calls what's happening in Iraq “messy.” Yes, I
guess you could say Iraq
has indeed gotten “messy,”
especially for America.
From badges for Jews and non-Muslims in Iran to Iraq is “messy.”
This guy needs a vacation.

However, when you read Taheri's “The Real Iraq” you'll get the answer
to the first question. Why was Taheri in the White House yesterday? Because
“stay the course” is the action he's not only suggesting, but supporting
through yet another fairy tale that paints a wholly different Iraqi reality
than any of us have come to know. He's associated with a pr firm for a reason.
But that doesn't mean he should be invited into the White House as an “expert”
on Iraq, Iran or anything else, except maybe foreign policy copywriting or
marketing. If Bush listens to this man just to feel good about his “stay
the course” Iraq policy, we are screwed for sure.

What do you care more about, Iraq or your own country? Because I can guarantee you Taheri's
main interest is not America.


… As for the insurgency’s effort to foment sectarian violence—a
strategy first launched in earnest toward the end of 2005—this too has
run aground. The hope here was to provoke a full-scale war between the Arab
Sunni minority and the Arab Shiites who account for some 60 percent of the
population. The new strategy, like the ones previously tried, has certainly
produced many deaths. But despite countless cases of sectarian killings by
so-called militias, there is still no sign that the Shiites as a whole will
acquiesce in the role assigned them by the insurgency and organize a concerted
campaign of nationwide retaliation.

(snip)

Finally, the U.S. and its allies have a key role to play in training and
testing Iraq’s new army and police. Impressive success has already been
achieved in that field. Nevertheless, the new Iraqi army needs at least another
year or two before it will have developed adequate logistical capacities and
learned to organize and conduct operations involving its various branches.

But will the U.S. stay the course? Many are betting against it. The Baathists
and jihadists, their prior efforts to derail Iraqi democracy having come to
naught, have now pinned their hopes on creating enough chaos and death to
persuade Washington of the futility of its endeavors. In this, they have the
tacit support not only of local Arab and Muslim despots rightly fearful of
the democratic genie but of all those in the West whose own incessant theme
has been the certainty of American failure. Among Bush-haters in the U.S.,
just as among anti-Americans around the world, predictions of civil war in
Iraq, of spreading regional hostilities, and of a revived global terrorism
are not about to cease any time soon.

But more sober observers should understand the real balance sheet in Iraq.
Democracy is succeeding. Moreover, thanks to its success in Iraq, there are
stirrings elsewhere in the region. Beyond the much-publicized electoral concessions
wrung from authoritarian rulers in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, there is a new
democratic discourse to be heard. Nationalism and pan-Arabism, yesterday’s
hollow rallying cries, have given way to a “big idea” of a very
different kind. Debate and dissent are in the air where there was none before—a
development owing, in significant measure, to the U.S. campaign in Iraq and
the brilliant if still checkered Iraqi response. …

The
Real Iraq
– by Amir Taheri

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Taheri Invited to the White House

By on 31 May 2006

Wait until you read this one. It is simply incredible.

I've been all over the Iranian badge story, as you undoubtedly know by now. But this latest development defies all rational thinking.

The man who fabricated the whole story was invited to the White House as an “expert” yesterday. You just can't make this stuff up.

I'd heard about the meeting yesterday, which included Wayne Downing, Barry McCaffrey, Michael Vickers and Fouad Ajami, but I wasn't told about Taheri until today.

Two weeks ago, Amir Taheri published an op-ed in Canada's National Post about an Iranian law that forced Jews to wear a yellow stripe. The story, reminiscent of Nazi Germany, quickly provoked outrage, but was just as quickly revealed to be a total fabrication. It also ran in the New York Post.

Apparently this is just the sort of reliable advice that President Bush needs. Yesterday, Taheri had a face-to-face with the President as one of a small group of “experts” on Iraq that visited the White House.

According to Press Secretary Tony Snow, the experts were invited to the White House for their “honest opinions” on Iraq.

TPM Muckraker

Honest to God, I'm speechless.

BUT LET ME ADD… to answer your comments below, not in the least surprised.

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Who Started the Iranian Badge Story?

By on 22 May 2006

(cross-posted at firedoglake)

UPDATE: Amir Taheri has been pressured to release a statement.

Regarding the dress code story it seems that my column was used as the basis for a number of reports that somehow jumped the gun. As far as my article is concerned I stand by it.

The law has been passed by the Islamic Majlis and will now be submitted to the Council of Guardians. A committee has been appointed to work out the modalities of implementation. …

PRESS RELEASE: AMIR TAHERI ADDRESSES QUERIES ABOUT DRESS CODE STORY

This isn't the first investigative piece I've done, because it's something I've enjoyed for years, having done investigative work into the sex trade in all ways, manners and places. But if you haven't been following this story, welcome to the latest Iranian intrigue misinformation push meant to move us closer to a strike against Iran. That's my assessment so far, with more questions popping up and few answers, the further into it I look. So, let's
unwind it. For regular readers, you've seen some of this, but there's even more that's trasnpired today.

After hearing about the story early last Friday, I spoke with Aaron Breitbart, a senior researcher of the Simon Wiesenthal Center, who was eager to confirm it, using words like “throwback” to the Nazi era, “very true”
and “very scary,” as well as offering that the dean and founder of
the Center, Rabbi Marvin Hier, had been on the phone for “four hours”
confirming the story. As someone said to me today, it makes you wonder what
the Rabbi was doing on the phone for 4 hours. After all, how long does it take to confirm something so incredibly frightening?

Reporting
that the Simon Weisenthal Center confirmed the story made it around the web
and beyond, as did subsequent
posts and follow
ups
. Because when an organization like that confirms something as alarming as the Iranian government passing a law to identify Jews and non-Muslims, it rightly causes four alarm Holocaust revisited hysteria. That was the intention.

After the story was thoroughly debunked,
I put in another call to Breitbart late on Friday, then called back again today. I wanted to get a comment from him about the discrediting of the story and see if I could ascertain why the Simon Wiesenthal Center would unabashedly back such an outrageous falsehood. He still hasn't answered his phone or returned my calls. I was eventually transferred to Avra Shapiro, Director of Public Relations, who said someone would get back to me. They have not.

A conversation earlier today inspired me to look closer at the facsimile, including times and dates. There is not only a cc to Ms. Shapiro, but also a Michele Alkin, the Director of Communications for the Simon Wiesenthal Center. I've forwarded the fax to someone I hope can take it further. We shall see. The names at the top are above the main text, which looks like it has been cut off and was originally sent to the Rabbi Marvin Hier. This is what appears next.

Subject: Taheri on Iran

Rabbi Cooper,

As per our conversation, I'm looking at running this but I have not been able to confirm its veracity. Particularly, I want to make sure that the part saying Jews will have to wear a yellow stripe and Christians a red stripe
is in fact true. Now the law has not yet come into effect, but it
is moving closer to becoming law and I think we need to draw attention
and much of it to this right now.

Any assistance you can give us in confirming this info would be much appreciated.

Best,

jte

The initials refer to John Turley-Ewert of the National Post, which used to
be owned by Conrad Black, but is now controlled by two brothers of the Asper
family that I've been told are actively involved with Israel's Likud party.
The National Post has an editorial policy similar to Brit Hume's at Fox “News.”
They are interchangeable and far leaning to the right. But the above section
I emphasized seems to show that not only is Turley-Ewert asking for confirmation
of the Iranian badge story, but a sort of collaboration on promoting the story.
Someone I spoke to today confirmed that was indeed their assessment, too.

But who got the Simon Wiesenthal Center to stick their necks out on this bogus
Iranian badge story, risking their very reputation and funding credibility,
and who had what to gain by doing so?

Could this story have something to do with Douglas Feith's Office
of Strategic Influence
PSYOPS plan to plant false stories in foreign press?
Sure, that was supposed to be shut down, but was it? After all, Canada is foreign
press and once a story gets printed it's all stops out for spreading the propaganda.


''Our inability to seize the initiative in the 'War of Ideas' with Al Qaeda
is perhaps our most significant shortcoming so far in the war against terrorism,''
said the document, dated Sept. 17, 2003. ''We do not fully understand Al Qaeda
and its relationship to supportive communities in the Islamic world, and so
are not yet able to develop an effective strategy for countering its propaganda
in those communities, let alone for winning the information campaign in the
war against terrorism.''

The document said one goal was to establish a ''road map for creating an
effective D.O.D. capability to design and conduct effective strategic influence
and operational and tactical perception-management campaigns.''

Pentagon
and Bogus News: All Is Denied
(Times Select, dated 12.5.03)

In the aftermath of the Iraq war, it's important to find out the facts regarding the obvious drumbeat for a strike against Iran. Asking important questions is a good place to start.

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Has Bush’s Iran War Propaganda Begun?

By on 19 May 2006

UPDATE II: Thanks to Juan Cole, who is an expert on Middle Eastern matters, for linking to this post. It helps people understand that on this side at least, we're after the truth and not just pumping up war propaganda, which seems all the wingnut war-o-sphere is all about (see note below for more).

NOTE: Also see IMPORTANT UPDATE to this story, which includes New York Post links on “Fourth Reich.”

Here we go again?


Bush and the neocons want war in Iran, this is not news. Bush is weak, so war would rouse his base. Got it. So, obviously, the Iranian badge story plays right into their hands. So, we all have to take this story in our stride. Right now, it's my belief that we've got a p.r. campaign going to pump up the volume for war with Iran, because there is plenty of information out there that Bush is already planning to strike Iran. That said, the Iranian badge story could also be true, because the Simon Wiesenthal Center confirmed it to me today. Either that or their lying to anyone asking to aid the cause: a strike against Iran. We'll have to wait and see. But here's the letter they sent to Kofi Annan.

Via Raw Story, we get the following out of Canada, which says the story is
bunk.

But independent reporter Meir Javedanfar, an Israeli Middle East expert who was born and raised in Tehran, says the report is false.
“It's absolutely factually incorrect,” he told The New 940 Montreal.

“Nowhere in the law is there any talk of Jews and Christians having to wear different colours. I've checked it with sources both inside Iran and outside.”
“The Iranian people would never stand for it. The Iranian government
wouldn't be stupid enough to do it.”

Iran report of Holocaust-style badges questioned

Sounds firm to me.

As I said, I spoke with Aaron Breitbart right before noon, a senior researcher for the Simon Weisenthal Center. Aaron said the story shooting across the web about Iranian badges is “absolutely true.” According to Aaron, Rabbi Hier has been on the phone for over four hours confirming the story, which they have now done. They consider this new Iranian law a “throwback” to
the bad old days of Hitler, which is an understandable reaction, given what they do at the Center. In confirming the story, Aaron said it's “very true” and “very scary.” He went further to say that Rabbi Hier has talked to experts in Iran who've confirmed his worst fears. No names were provided. Aaron also offered that “Iranian diplomats” who have been contacted about the story refuse to answer any questions at all. Obviously that's very vague and nothing further was given, so I have no way of helping you decipher if this is worth anything at all. However, Aaron said something else: “It's on Drudge.”

Stop everything.

I just received a fax from Aaron, which contained the original article that
was written by Iranian author and journalist Amir Taheri. It's a fax also asking a Rabbi Cooper for some information on the Iranian law, which has not gone into effect yet, but is definitely headed in that direction, according to them. Now let's talk about Amir Taheri for just a second. It didn't take long to find out he's part of Benador Associates. Guess who's also part of Benador? Charles Krauthammer and many other neocons.

Are you getting that feeling yet?

It's obvious from my conversation with Aaron Breitbart that the Simon Weisenthal Center takes this seriously. That's their business.

But you simply cannot come to this story without a sense of the politics involved either, to do so would be mingling naiveté with rank stupidity. So, I remind everyone of what you're likely aware: Iran and Israel are enemies; the U.S. and Israel are allied; plus the fact that Ahmadinejad and George W. Bush have opposing interests and similar solutions: war.

If you mix in this a very toxic political situation at home, with Bush on the ropes, you've got to wonder who's being played, or if war propaganda has just been started in earnest. I'll give you two guesses. But trust your first instincts on this, which will likely lead you back to Iraq.

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WHY DIDN’T COLIN POWELL RESIGN?

By on 12 April 2006

I queried Powell at a reception following a talk he
gave in Los Angeles on Monday. Pointing out that the October 2002 National
Intelligence Estimate showed that his State Department had gotten it right
on the nonexistent Iraq nuclear threat, I asked why did the president ignore
that wisdom in his stated case for the invasion?

“The CIA was pushing the aluminum tube argument
heavily and Cheney went with that instead of what our guys wrote,” Powell
said. And the Niger reference in Bush's State of the Union speech? “That
was a big mistake,” he said. “It should never have been in the speech.
I didn't need Wilson to tell me that there wasn't a Niger connection. He didn't
tell us anything we didn't already know. I never believed it.”

When I pressed further as to why the president played
up the Iraq nuclear threat, Powell said it wasn't the president: “That
was all Cheney.”

Now
Powell tells us

As Jane
Hamsher
said, “Powell didn’t need Joe Wilson
to tell him there wasn’t a Niger connection? Well the rest of us sure
did.”
No kidding.

Through Scheer, we learn that Powell never believed Iraq posed
an “imminent nuclear threat.”

This is such an insult, such a disgusting admission, an unmitigated
cowardly confession at this late date, that it completes the ruination of former
general Colin Powell's public persona, not to mention his career. For a military
man of his stature to sit by and not only watch, but participate, as a false
case was made for preemptive war, after all he'd learned in his life, is to
dishonor the service and what the U.S. military means. I simply cannot come
up with words harsh enough to express my outrage.

It shows no bravery whatsoever for Powell to put a shiv in the
president's preemption pimp, Dick Cheney, three years into this bloody, costly
and ruinous war. Being “a good soldier” and supporting the boss, when
you know the case being made is not factual, is not being “a good soldier.”
It is being a patsy. It is allowing yourself to be used. It is laying down your
ethics for a cause and a president who doesn't deserve the loyalty you are giving.

It is betrayal.

Betrayal of the thousands of men and women sent to fight a war
against Saddam on false pretenses, which you helped prop up and push forward.
Does Colin Powell not understand that point? Does the person who was General
Colin Powell not understand the weight his appearance at Bush and Cheney's side
meant throughout the march to war?

Since Powell knew all along that the case being made for war was
not supported by facts, why didn't Colin Powell resign? Because Saddam was a
bad guy and deserve to be ousted, regardless of the facts used in the case being
made? That is not his decision to make. For that matter, it isn't the president's
either. It is the Congress, along with the activism shown by the American people,
who have a vested interest in why and when this country wages war.

We were cheated out of the chance to make a judgment based on
facts and so was Congress.

Again, we have Republicans putting their party ahead of country,
much like what the Republicans are doing today by backing Bush no matter what,
leaving the country to suffer so they can keep their election hopes alive, as
well as their party.

Where is the loyalty to America, to the citizens for whom the
people in Washington work?

It is disgusting to read the confession of Colin Powell today.
It is alarming. It is unacceptable for anyone in public life to vouch for evidence
that opens out on to policies that take us to war based on faulty evidence.

Without Joseph Wilson, we would still not know the truth, which
is why an organized smear campaign was waged against him. Jane is right. Colin
Powell may not have needed Joseph Wilson, but the American people needed him
desperately, because Powell didn't have Wilson's courage.

However, Powell's disgrace won't matter much on the lecture circuit.
He'll continue to rake up the fees amidst his collapsed credibility. He is the
poster child for what a leader is not.

In fact, without Joseph Wilson, Colin Powell would likely still
be playing the part of the “good soldier,” refusing to admit that
at the heart of his masquerade was a man who had lost his nerve, his spine and
his conscience. He should have resigned. Just imagine how different the world
would be today if he had.

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Iraqi Cleric Sides with Iran

By on 23 January 2006

The Iraqi cleric who once led two uprisings
against U.S. forces said Sunday that his militia would help to defend Iran
if it is attacked, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

Muqtada al-Sadr, speaking on the sidelines
of a meeting with the top Iranian nuclear negotiator, said his Mahdi Army
was formed to defend Islam.

“If neighboring Islamic countries, including
Iran, become the target of attacks, we will support them,” al-Sadr was
quoted as saying. “The Mahdi Army is beyond the Iraqi army. It was established
to defend Islam.”

Iraqi
Cleric: Militia Would Defend Iran

Hey Karl, babe, what now, huh?

We know that Israel is ready to attack Iran, which is understandable,
since President Ahmadinejad wants to wipe them off the map.

But as we scoff at Ahmadinejad, he's become the
“Arab poster boy” and hero
, because they want a strong man who
stands up to the west. To use an analogy that Chris Matthews could understand,
Ahmadinejad is becoming the Arab world's George W. Bush. A real gun toting,
hard charging, blunt speaking cowboy. He's a lunatic to us, a hero to them.
I don't like it either, but there you have it.

President Bush let Iran simmer, plot and plan while he played
preemption in Iraq. Now the situation is on boil and he's outsourced the diplomacy,
because he's not trusted, not believed, not taken seriously on anything but
blowing things up. Unfortunately, we've run out of bombs and troops, right when
Iran is starting to rock 'n roll into real power. Now that's leadership.

I'm all for staying out of things, but this isn't one of them.
Serious sanctions have to eventually be slapped on Iran if they don't comply,
through the U.S. Security Council, going the full mile in all things diplomatic.
However, one thing is absolutely certain in my mind. Iran cannot get the bomb
or get any closer to having it.

John McCain said it best yesterday, “we
cannot take the military option off the table, but we have to make clear it's
the last option.”

This is worth fighting for, but we can't with our troops in Iraq,
and Ahmadinejad knows it. We've got to draw down, prepare, re-equip, while simultaneously
turning to ready what we have to do on Iran.

What we should have been doing but didn't, because of Bush's Saddam
fetish, is fund the pro-democracy forces inside Iran, including whatever opposition
network that exists in the region. However, it doesn't look like we can now
wait until that gets done.

Ahmadinejad is a mad man who wants to destroy Israel, and now
he's got a true ally in Iraq that will join forces.

Nice planning, Mr. President. Did anyone bring this possibility up when you and your buddies
were planning preemption?

So, hey Karl, what next, pal? Mr. National Security, Mr. we're
so post-9/11 and the Democrats are so pre-9/11. What about Iran, post Iraq war,
with Iraqis pledging solidarity with their Muslim brothers? Or don't you do details.

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The M-16, and the AK-47 in the Iraqi Desert

By on 26 March 2003

“It (AK-47) is a means of securing peace. I feel sad when I hear about its misuse.” – General Mikhail Kalashnikov

Sandstorms in the middle of a war are a bitch, especially when you have to depend on an M-16.

To be more specific, I’m talking about a Colt M-16, which is the American made weapon most of our troops are using against the Iraqis.

Not long ago, I had the pleasure of shooting the very same M-16.

And before you set your gun-control harange ready to fire, let me also state that while I believe wholeheartedly in the 2nd Amendment, I do not genuflect to gun owners who disingenuously tout that federal registration and regulation is against the 2nd Amendment, which is patently paranoid. (Also include mandatory gun show background checks and safety locks to the litany of paranoid positions anti-gun control people tout as dangerous to gun owners.)

Anyway…

My new husband, who also happens to be a gun expert, owned all the weapons I shot, which included, besides the M-16, the German HK-223.

What a rush.

Bullets coming out one end.

Spent cartridges coming out the other.

And dirt kicking up everywhere.

By the way, it takes only three and one-half seconds to go through thirtyrounds.

Count it: one thousand one, one thousand two, one thousand three.

Get it?

Good.

(As an aside, the pistol I’m looking at right now, as a sort of wish weapon, is the HK-USP compact, 40 caliber. What a beauty.)

In the old days, Colt came out with “The Peacemaker,” which was the six shot revolver.  And then, as legend has it, the advertising slogan that made history was rolled out as well: “God made man. Samuel Colt made them equal.”

Ask many women who live alone, or who have ever been in danger and had to protect themselves, and we would agree that there is nothing like a warm gun to keep you safe when evil encroaches on your reality.

Of course, when I shot the M-16 with my friend, though I was out in the middle of nowhere, I made the mistake of shooting this powerful weapon without head gear on.

The sound just about knocked me out of my boots.

However, to my astonishment, the kick was minimal, even on the fully automatic setting.

The power was unmistakable.

But what I learned recently about the M-16 really surprised me.

First, a little history…

Though I’m only a student of the military, not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, in Vietnam, when the M-16 was first given to our troops the powder used in the bullets clogged the guns up and they ended up jamming at the worst times.  In fact, there is a famous story about a combat group whose guns jammed during an engagement in Vietnam, rendering our troops helpless in a battle that ended up costing them their lives.

There have been improvements made over the years, obviously, but the same trouble still exists, especially in the desert. In fact, my gun friend said that one particular soldier in Desert Storm mentioned to him that the mechanism of the M-16 gun structure has such a close fitting that sand and the fine dust of the desert would often cause the gun to jam.

The Arabian desert may turn out to be a bigger problem for our soldiers than the jungles of Vietnam.

This same Desert Storm soldier also told my friend that he personally wrapped the action of his M-16, the part of the gun that moves during firing, in plastic to keep the sand from clogging up the mechanisms.

In addition, the soldiers are obviously cautioned and trained to clean their guns daily, no matter what. Their lives may depend on it.

By the way, remember those stories we’ve all seen in movies… where a service man runs around the compound reciting “this is my gun, this is my rifle,” referring to the inherent differences in his genitals and
his M-16, respectively? To a military soldier, man or woman, the M-16 is not a gun, it is a rifle.

Anyway…  Considering the above reality, imagine what our troops must have been going through yesterday in the middle of the Iraqi desert as the sandstorm kicked up to over 60 m.p.h.

It’s one thing to keep your mouth and nose free so you can breathe.

It’s quite another to keep your rifle cleared of all sand so you can stay alive.

It brought me back to that day when I fired the M-16 on full auto… the power… the majesty of this weapon.

Yet, upon learning of its temperamental nature, I couldn’t imagine the stress involved with the responsibility of a weapon in wartime on desert terrain.

The real beauty of the weapon that I had the pleasure, and it was an extreme pleasure, of shooting was that it was the M4 variation, which is what the Special Forces use in combat.

Here are the specs: 14 and one-half inch barrel and retracting stock, which is about 2.5 pounds lighter than the standard issue  It also has a 20 inch barrel and fixed stock.

Again, the biggest difference between the M4 variation that I fired and the conventional weapon used by the regular military is around 2.5 pounds.

This is a huge weight differential, especially when you’re carrying this weapon, gear and everything else over desert terrain overdays and days or weeks and months of fighting.

Though the M-16 is an amazing piece of machinery that is far more accurate than other weapons, to reiterate, it is also more temperamental when it gets dirty.

However, our troops are trained in basic training to dismantle their weapon and put it back together blind folded, in the dark, or at night, which is coming in very handy right now.

Enter the Iraqi desert.

Our enemies in this conflict are carrying the Russian made AK-47, which was designed by General Mikhail Kalashnikov.

The difference between the Iraqi’s Russian designed AK-47, and the American made Colt M-16, is that the AK-47 was designed to fire with very loose mechanical tolerances. This means that dirt can still get into the mechanism, but they can continually use it without it malfunctioning.

It’s interesting to note that the Russians knew and planned ahead of time that when they designed the AK-47 they would be supplying third world countries with the weapon.  The recipients would be unlikely to have cleaning solvents and materials to keep the weapon clean, thus the very loose mechanical tolerances that allows the AK-47 to be so forgiving in inhospitable climates.

Another aside, even the Israelis use a refined, third generation version of the AK-47, which is known as the IMI Galil, adapting all the good points of the AK-47, especially its reliability.

Our soldiers have a bit more of a challenge, however.

The American military’s M-16, when used in the Iraqi desert in the middle of a sandstorm, can cause the type of situation you get, for instance, when you experience a piece of sand landing in your eye.  It causes you to immediately stop and get the piece of sand out NOW, or else you’re left blind, immobile and in pain. The M-16 is a terrific technical tool, but if the Iraqi desert dirt and sand gets inside the mechanism it can make for a very bad encounter, unless the soldier cleans it immediately.

The other factor that is important to note as the battle for Baghdad engages, is that our military is the best in the world, bar none, especially in conventional warfare.  However, that’s not what we’re currently fighting, which is something that military expert Bill Arkin spoke about yesterday on MSNBC’s Hardball.

See, the thing about technology is that it’s great when used for its specific purpose, but when you take it into renegade situations, a lesser weapon can often match the superlative nature of our hyper technical combat tools, rendering the battle field equal in guerrilla or close combat.

An AK-47 may not be as accurate or as technically sophisticated as an M-16, but at 150 yards it still packs a powerful punch.

Case in point, the Apache helicopter that was presumably downed by small arms fire.  An Apache group was quickly dispatched to rescue the two pilots, who were taken prisoner, but even they were turned back by the Iraqi’s AK-47 barrage of bullets.

The AK-47 is one bad ass weapon at close range.

Sure, the military command could send in a jet and bomb the enemy to smithereens, but in this conflict that wouldn’t do the political situation, which is going from bad to worse, any good.

It just goes to prove that when the military is sent in by the politicians it really helps if their mission is seen by everyone as just.  Because our soldiers are doing what their told, even when the political policy that sent them in isn’t worth the paper on which it was written.  And when they can’t use full force all out, it can put our soldiers in jeopardy through military tactics that must be adopted to make up for the political unpopularity of a war.

So, it was odd yesterday to sit here comfortably in the U.S. and watch television, seeing the sand rain down on our troops, especially knowing the impact of the weather and that the only thing standing between life and death for the American military in the Iraqi desert is often their rifle.

It also makes me reiterate, on this page as well as on radio stations around the country, how important it is for Americans to reevaluate our foreign policy, thinking hard about the Republican right’s new Bush doctrine of preemption, which came on a promise of quick surrender, easy battles and quick victory that has rarely been the case in any war at any time in the history of the world.

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