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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Tag Archives | Middle East

Romney Squeezes Out a Win in Ohio

“To be perfectly honest with you, and candid, not being political, I will answer your question, I will let you know I voted for the cheerful one, Newt Gingrich,” Palin told Fox News early Wednesday morning, although she insisted that was not a formal endorsement. – The Hill

It wasn’t pretty.

Mitt Romney barely beat Rick Santorum in Ohio, the state called just before 1:00 a.m. EST. But it’s a win he badly needed.

Now the question is whether Rick Santorum can start beating the pulpit to get Newt Gingrich out of the race. It’s the only chance Santorum and religious conservatives have of taking it to Romney going forward, though the path to the nomination is tough.

Mitt Romney almost got beat by a guy who didn’t even file the right papers to compete in Ohio almost won.

Republican primary voters still don’t want Mitt Romney. But unless Santorum makes Gingrich an offer he can’t refuse, and on which Santorum may never be able to deliver, Romney’s going to eventually outlast his opponents.

What all this means for the fall is unknown, because we all may end up caught between gas prices, Netanyahu and Iran.

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Obama’s Super Tuesday Coup

President Barack Obama talks with National Security Advisor Tom Donilon and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Oval Office, March 5, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)



As we wait for today’s results, one thing we know. Pres. Obama won the day.

And the reason I called Ms. Fluke is because I thought about Malia and Sasha, and one of the things I want them to do as they get older is to engage in issues they care about, even ones I may not agree with them on. I want them to be able to speak their mind in a civil and thoughtful way. And I don’t want them attacked or called horrible names because they’re being good citizens. And I wanted Sandra to know that I thought her parents should be proud of her, and that we want to send a message to all our young people that being part of a democracy involves argument and disagreements and debate, and we want you to be engaged, and there’s a way to do it that doesn’t involve you being demeaned and insulted, particularly when you’re a private citizen. – Pres. Obama, press conference today

What a move.

Not only did Pres. Obama step on Super Tuesday with his press conference, but he showed Mitt Romney how you respond to a media bully, while doing a beautiful bank shot to hit chickenhawk Republicans on Iran.

Now, what’s said on the campaign trail — those folks don’t have a lot of responsibilities. They’re not Commander-in-Chief. And when I see the casualness with which some of these folks talk about war, I’m reminded of the costs involved in war. I’m reminded that the decision that I have to make in terms of sending our young men and women into battle, and the impacts that has on their lives, the impact it has on our national security, the impact it has on our economy.

This is not a game. There’s nothing casual about it. And when I see some of these folks who have a lot of bluster and a lot of big talk, but when you actually ask them specifically what they would do, it turns out they repeat the things that we’ve been doing over the last three years, it indicates to me that that’s more about politics than actually trying to solve a difficult problem.

[...] This is not just an issue of Israeli interest; this is an issue of U.S. interests. It’s also not just an issue of consequences for Israel if action is taken prematurely. There are consequences to the United States as well.

And so I do think that any time we consider military action that the American people understand there’s going to be a price to pay. Sometimes it’s necessary. But we don’t do it casually.

When I visit Walter Reed, when I sign letters to families that haven’t — whose loved ones have not come home, I am reminded that there is a cost. Sometimes we bear that cost. But we think it through. We don’t play politics with it. When we have in the past — when we haven’t thought it through and it gets wrapped up in politics, we make mistakes. And typically, it’s not the folks who are popping off who pay the price. It’s these incredible men and women in uniform and their families who pay the price.

“Popping off” described Mitt Romney on Iran perfectly.

Romney has said Pres. Obama hasn’t stressed “all options are on the table,” which he has, as I wrote about recently. But Romney also denied containment would work, which is not even Obama’s policy, though I’d prefer it. Then Romney whined about diplomacy and sanctions, saying Obama’s weak on Iran. What Mitt Romney doesn’t know about foreign policy would fill the Grand Canyon.

This is a huge problem for Mitt Romney, because by any objective analysis no one has been tougher on Iran in decades, not George W. Bush or Bill Clinton.

People can disagree with Obama’s foreign policy, which I do on Libya, Syria, targeted assassinations and other issues, but what is provable is that he’s been tough on Iran.

Pres. Obama’s point on our military men women paying the price is an important one.

The last time I looked Mitt Romney had five sons, none of whom are in the military.

It’s always the chickenhawks who are so eager to give up other people’s sons and daughters to gunfire. It’s one of the more despicable habits of Republicans in recent memory.

So, not only did Pres. Obama call out Mitt Romney by showing his understanding of women through his daughters, but he also took him to the woodshed on Iran.

High fives all ’round at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

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Obama in Stronger Position than Netanyahu Planned

Photo by Pete Souza

It’s not playing out right now as P.M. Netanyahu had hoped, Republicans either.

Pres. Obama spoke as AIPAC on Sunday in a much different position than he was this time last year, because not only is the economy looking up, but Republicans have caused Obama’s reelection hopes to be on the rise as well. That’s not what Netanyahu was banking on happening.

It’s here it’s important to add that another reason for Obama’s newfound footing is the contraceptive mandate, which has gathered women of all political persuasions to his side, while leaving Republicans from Bob McDonnell, Marco Rubio and Roy Blunt to Rush Limbaugh tripping over their own misogyny, as cable yakkers from Joe Scarborough to Bill O’Reilly make themselves look foolish trying to peddle fiction along the way.

Tzipi Livni’s analysis of Netanyahu’s place is priceless, which is reported in the New York Post, though you’ll have to ignore the headline:

She predicted that there would be a large gap between Obama’s praise for Israel in his speech and what he would say to Netanyahu behind closed doors.

“Relations between Israel and the US have become political during Netanyahu’s term,” she said. “Netanyahu made Israel an issue in the American election and it’s a mistake. Netanyahu must understand that relations with the US are an essential need.

Our deterrence depends on it. He will be tested on whether he is able to draft the US into our interests or whether he will continue just manipulating internal American politics.”

It is not only a mistake for Mr. Netanyahu, but it’s a mistake for Republicans to follow his lead.

“… I have said that when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say. That includes all elements of American power. A political effort aimed at isolating Iran; a diplomatic effort to sustain our coalition and ensure that the Iranian program is monitored; an economic effort to impose crippling sanctions; and, yes, a military effort to be prepared for any contingency.” – Pres. Obama, speaking at AIPAC

The text of Obama’s speech was strong and unequivocally pro-Israel, no surprise there for people who know the President’s stance.

That Netanyahu wants him to draw the line well before “preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon” is something that Pres. Obama simply isn’t willing to do and Obama deserves credit for the critical distinction, which is about weaponizing and not simply enrichment.

Once again, Obama has no problems with the age old wording of “take no options off the table,” while adding a signature twist, “and I mean what I say.”

I guess we just haven’t grown up enough for these last words to be left unsaid. Conveniently, the blame for this can be put on the Netanyahu factor.

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Just Call Him Barack Obama, The Israeli Hawk

“It felt like pandering.” – Steve Clemons

Clemons is talking about the interview Pres. Obama gave to his colleague Jeffrey Goldberg.

Coming just before the annual AIPAC meeting, how could it not be presidential pandering?

For me, it just seemed like the same old political game from a man who knows better, but who is getting incredible pressure from the same people who got us into war with Iraq to get “tougher” on Israel.

To give teeth to the deterrent threat against Iran, Israel and its backers want Mr. Obama to stop urging restraint on Israel and to be more explicit about the circumstances under which the United States itself would carry out a strike. – U.S. Backers of Israel Pressure Obama Over Policy on Iran

The headline above from the New York Times today is typical of traditional media’s myopia at what describes “backers,” but also why Pres. Obama’s interview with Goldberg came out as it did.

Goldberg recently made the case that nobody has been stronger on Iran than Pres. Obama.

Memo to Republicans: Obama Is Tougher on Iran Than George W. Bush

But Obama, while avoiding rhetorical drama, has actually done more to stop Iran than the Bush Administration ever did.

That’s an understatement, especially considering it was on Pres. Bush’s watch, who forced the Palestinians to vote before they were ready, which gave Hamas a path into the governing echelon.

So, the choice of Pres. Obama to sit down with Goldberg is understandably, if predictably, self-serving and comes with all sorts of tangential implications.  It’s getting a lot of attention for tone.

Jeffrey Goldberg, whom I’ve been following closely on Iran and Israel, is one of the political writers on the right who continue to label critics of Israeli policy “anti-Israel” and much worse. Goldberg’s history includes being in the IDF, which is worth bringing up here to give Pres. Obama’s decision to give Goldberg the interview its full context (links are available at the original post).

For those of you haven’t read the book (you can conveniently buy it right here !), the hyper-short version of the loyalty issue is this: As a teenager, I felt a bit like David Ben-Gurion (or Ari Ben-Canaan, more to the point)  set adrift on Long Island. I thought, for various reasons I describe in the book, that Israel might have been meant to be my true home, so I moved there in my early 20s, only to learn that in Israel, I felt like George Washington. I realized, by the time I arrived at the central army intake base as a not-so-happy draftee, that I was irreducibly American, and this feeling was reinforced by my service at an Intifada prison, which I disliked very much, mainly because I thought the occupation (or more specifically, the settlement) of the West Bank and Gaza was counterproductive, brutal and generally un-Jewish.

From the state of the Senate resolution, to Bill Kristol’s front page ad, to the swiftboating of Media Matters and Center for American Progress, to Pres. Obama giving Goldberg this interview at a critical moment in time, the stage craft is purposeful.

Pres. Obama is competing with flyswatters like Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, as well as religious conservatives like Rick Santorum, all of whom are competing for what is our annual ritual.

Who can be more pro-Israel?

As for Mitt Romney, he’ll do what’s expected of any post-9/11 Republican who has no foreign policy credentials: channel George W. Bush.

Pres. Obama is telegraphing he won’t take a back seat to warmongers like Sens. McCain, Graham and Lieberman, even as Josh Rogin reports the anti-Obama forces are determined to prove Obama is not Israel’s friend. Rogin has the trailer for the campaign, which is hyperbole at its worst and something I won’t even post.

But hearing Stephanie Cutter, co-chair of Obama reelect, with Chuck Todd on Friday emphasize “all options are on the table,” on top of Pres. Obama’s hawk bluster with Goldberg, is embarrassingly transparent.

I’m never impressed when a politician talks about military action as a threat against Iran, especially since Pres. Obama will be warning P.M. Netanyahu that a strike by Israel would be catastrophic, especially for the United States.

GOLDBERGDo you think Israel could cause damage to itself in America by preempting the Iranian nuclear program militarily?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I don’t know how it plays in America. I think we in the United States instinctively sympathize with Israel, and I think political support for Israel is bipartisan and powerful.

In my discussions with Israel, the key question that I ask is: How does this impact their own security environment? I’ve said it publicly and I say it privately: ultimately, the Israeli prime minister and the defense minister and others in the government have to make their decisions about what they think is best for Israel’s security, and I don’t presume to tell them what is best for them.

But as Israel’s closest friend and ally, and as one that has devoted the last three years to making sure that Israel has additional security capabilities, and has worked to manage a series of difficult problems and questions over the past three years, I do point out to them that we have a sanctions architecture that is far more effective than anybody anticipated; that we have a world that is about as united as you get behind the sanctions; that our assessment, which is shared by the Israelis, is that Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon and is not yet in a position to obtain a nuclear weapon without us having a pretty long lead time in which we will know that they are making that attempt.

In that context, our argument is going to be that it is important for us to see if we can solve this thing permanently, as opposed to temporarily. [...]

Israel has 200 or so nuclear weapons.

Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

North Korea has nuclear weapons.

Ghadaffi gave up his and look what happened to him.

Saddam Hussein was seen to have WMDs and even when he didn’t, people like Sens. John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Joe Lieberman, Joe Biden, Hillary Rodham Clinton and every other presidential hopeful in the Senate voted to give Pres. Bush power to begin the path to war.

Pres. Obama was lauded by his fans and supporters for being different, which at the time I said he wasn’t on national security, with, once again, my analysis of Obama from 2008 being true, as we’ve seen play out in the Administration’s drone policy, in Yemen, through targeted assassinations that go beyond Osama bin Laden, at Guantanamo Bay, as well as Libya.

Obama made an effort to shift the dynamic with his strong statements on settlements, but was ignored by Netanyahu, while V.P. Joe Biden was humiliated while on Israeli soil. In an election year, Obama’s now trying to talk the language of the neocons to posture strength he’s shown through a strategy that is diametrically opposed to their hair on fire warmongering.

Steve Clemons is correct, it’s pandering.

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Obama Playing Defense Over Gas Prices & GOP Attacks



How did it come to this?

How badly has the Obama administration handled promoting what’s actually been happening on energy production on their watch?

It couldn’t have been worse.

The graph here is from the Wall Street Journal, from back in August 2011. Here’s an excerpt from the report:

1,069: The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. this week.

The figure reflects a huge surge in U.S. oil drilling, up nearly 60% in the past year and the highest total since at least 1987, when oil services company Baker Hughes Inc. began keeping track.

But I bet you if you conducted random interviews across the country with average Americans you wouldn’t get many who are aware that Pres. Obama has presided over a surge in energy production and the decline in U.S. dependency on foreign oil.

With Newt Gingrich squealing about $2/gallon gas, which is a fantasy, while Republicans blame Pres. Obama for the price of gas, it’s clear nobody on the right cares about the facts.

Once a political narrative gets started it’s hard to unlock it in people’s minds.

With Keystone XL as a backdrop, with Pres. Bill Clinton coming out in support of it, as Canada begins the southern section of the pipeline, Pres. Obama denying Keystone in the short-term plays into a false narrative that he’s undermining U.S. energy interests.

It’s false, but it’s a building theme that the Obama administration must have polling is setting in.

The Iran issue isn’t helping oil prices either, which for Republicans simply offers a way to hit Obama on two fronts, even if there is no basis in fact for the attacks.

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If You Dare to Criticize Israeli Policy

Only 19 percent of Israelis support an attack against Iran without the backing of the United States, a new poll released on Wednesday found. In the poll conducted by Shibley Telhami, Brookings nonresident senior fellow and the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, 42% of respondents said they support a strike against Iran only if there is US support for the move. Nearly a third, 32%, of those polled oppose an attack regardless of US support. – ’19% of Israelis support non-US-backed Iran strike’

Bill Kristol runs amok with a full-page ad in the New York Times today.

As you can see, it quotes Spencer Ackerman, who said this on Twitter about it: “So apparently the Emergency Committee for Israel has hijacked a quote of mine for a NYTimes ad. I didnt approve that & ECI are clowns.” It was likely due to his piece for The Tablet, which I covered during the run-up to what Kristol unloaded today.

The poll cited above is illustrative.

Israel is a strong, if small, nation that has at least 200 nuclear weapons. We are allies, but the decision to strike is Israel’s, as I wrote yesterday, though that doesn’t make it smart.

But it’s not the decision of the U.S. and the way Bill Kristol and his crew are conducting their smear campaign on Center for American Progress and Media Matters is more about hurting both groups than anything to do with Israel. Kristol and his ilk don’t appreciate M.J. Rosenberg and others being correct and gaining traction inside the U.S., where being an ally to Israel shouldn’t mean we don’t have differences, especially when it comes to hyperbole on Iran, which could lead to grave consequences for everyone.

No one has yet convinced me that anyone can stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. It’s become a national pride issue, with U.S. policy regime change penchant proving what happens to countries who don’t have weaponized nukes.

What happens if Iran gets a nuclear weapon? That is, besides Pres. Obama being blamed for it.

Bill Kristol and his group want to diminish the power of CAP and Media Matters and he’s using Israel to do it. This has little to do with Israel.

photo via Adam Serwer on Twitter

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Democrats Ratchet Up Rhetoric on Iran, From Gillibrand to Wyden to McCaskill

While a missile retaliation against Israel would be virtually certain, according to these assessments, Iran would also be likely to try to calibrate its response against American targets so as not to give the United States a rationale for taking military action that could permanently cripple Tehran’s nuclear program. “The Iranians have been pretty good masters of escalation control,” said Gen. James E. Cartwright, now retired, who as the top officer at Strategic Command and as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff participated in war games involving both deterrence and retaliation on potential adversaries like Iran. – The New York Times

It must be a presidential election year.

But let’s not pretend this isn’t due to an adversity to enlightenment and our international interests.

Cards meet table, if Israel feels threatened she should strike.  Everyone else will have to deal.  The world has suffered worse and so have the Jews.

So let’s have it, minus the part that nobody wants to jump.

George W. Bush and the neoconservatives proved to the world not having WMDs was as bad as having them, so what’s to keep Iran from flexing?

Some remember public school drills and the underside of desks. Who went soft?

…and what are we going to really do about Iran, past pontificating?

Pres. Obama is to meet with P.M. Netanyahu next week in Washington, just in case you’re wondering why the Senate just got busy on a non-binding sense of the Senate Iran resolution.

I’ve been purposefully ignoring the web pages devoted lately to Israel striking Iran, because I’ve been to enough foreign policy think tank forums to know that little of what’s being written or discussed is grounded in sane analysis. Tune in to one minute of Sean Hannity and you’ll get the worst of it.

Much of the Iran talk where Israel is concerned revolves around a “zone of immunity,” which I’ve written about before. Blake Hounshell has an excellent rundown of what’s been happening leading up to Netanyahu’s visit next week.

The key issue under discussion is what the appropriate “red lines” are — Iranian actions that would trigger a military response by Israel or the United States. For Israel, the bar is lower, but nebulous: Defense Minister Ehud Barak talks about Iran soon entering a “zone of immunity” that will make an attack impossible. …

[...] But threats have consequences, too. U.S. officials haven’t clearly articulated why they believe all this war talk is unhelpful, but I suspect two reasons. One is the rising cost of gasoline, perhaps the issue that terrifies the political side of the White House most heading into November. Tensions over Iran are already adding about $10 per barrel to the price of oil, some analysts say, threatening to choke off America’s nascent economic recovery and make Obama a one-term president.

Sen. Gillibrand joining in on the sense of the Senate resolution on Iran is representative of why I called her out on Afghanistan in my new book, because she’s yet to prove boldness on foreign policy, let alone any leadership. One of the many issues I address in my book, as I have around here, is the rhetoric females use in foreign policy, which has yet to shift beyond militaristic terms.

The Iran Resolution proves why being a sitting senator from New York is complicated, as Hillary’s Iraq war vote the fall after 9/11 proved conclusively. With a heavy Jewish voter base, Gillibrand reveals yet again that Democratic females in the position to show leadership inevitably fall in line with conventional foreign policy thinkers, which keeps U.S. foreign policy from progressing and shifting.

It’s also why I wrote in my book about having great hopes for Elizabeth Warren, but whose progressive leadership remains to be proven. Once in the Senate, Democratic females trend toward mimicking their hawk brothers, which remains a problem for anyone wanting a wider lens on U.S. foreign policy. Since Sen. Scott Brown has joined the sense of the Senate resolution, maybe some enterprising journalist can put the question to Warren. Her answer matters.

If Democratic women politicians don’t stand apart from 20th century foreign policy thinking, which is traditionally militaristic, they threaten to carve a policy portfolio that is domestically driven, leaving the wider world to men, which would be a tragedy for progressivism itself.


IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES

To express the sense of the Senate regarding the importance of preventing the Government of Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

Mr. GRAHAM (for himself, Mr. LIEBERMAN, Mr. CASEY, Ms. AYOTTE, Mr. BLUMENTHAL, Mr. BOOZMAN, Mr. BROWN of Massachusetts, Mr. BROWN of Ohio, Mr. CARDIN, Mr. CHAMBLISS, Mr. COATS, Ms. COLLINS, Mr. COONS, Mr. CORNYN, Mrs. GILLIBRAND, Mr. HATCH, Mr. HELLER, Mr. HOEVEN, Mrs. HUTCHISON, Mr. INHOFE, Mr. MCCAIN, Mrs. MCCASKILL, Mr. MENENDEZ, Ms. MIKULSKI, Mr. NELSON of Florida, Mr. PORTMAN, Mr. PRYOR, Mr. RISCH, Mr. RUBIO, Mr. SCHUMER, Mr. UDALL of Colorado, and Mr. WYDEN) submitted the following resolution; which was referred to the Committee on….

RESOLUTION

Continue Reading →

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Michigan is All the Marbles for Mitt

Michigan Democratic strategist Joe DiSano has taken it upon himself to become a leading mischief maker. DiSano says he targeted nearly 50,000 Democratic voters in Michigan through email and a robo call to their homes, asking them to go to the polls Tuesday to vote for Rick Santorum in attempt to hurt Romney. – Democratic Mischief in Michigan

Poor Mitt, he’s getting hit from all sides.

Talking Points Memo has the robo call from a man with a gruff sounding voice meant to sound like a working man, talking about Democrats needing to get out to vote for Rick Santorum. The tag line is “this call was paid for by the Santorum for president committee.”

I’ve wanted a Romney – Obama match from the start, because of the big money political show it would be and the potential for unmasking the big two parties machines in the worst ways.

But Mitt Romney’s rolling gaffes and his own incompetence as a candidate has been stunning to watch and has put his path to the nomination in jeopardy. That doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be formidable, because of the Super PAC avalanche, but also because there are so many world event variables that could still make 2012 tough for Pres. Obama.

However, as things stand today Republicans are going to have a rough time making the 2012 election a referendum on Pres. Obama, which is their path to victory.

While Romney continues to be unable to close the sale, it’s not hard to see why religious conservatives are excited about the Santorum revival. He can even talk national security the way they like to hear it.

But could Democrats help Santorum and maybe make a difference in Michigan? Read Nate Silver and decide for yourself.

Republicans have bigger problems, because of how badly wounded Mitt Romney is today, much of it his own fault, including how far right he’s gone, especially on immigration. Romney continuing to lose prowess to Rick Santorum, whose extreme views and the power he’s building with religious conservatives threaten Republicans far beyond 2012, has been humiliating for Mitt Romney as a general election candidate.

It’s the set up for Jonathan Chait’s article in New York Magazine.

…Rick Santorum warns his audiences, “We are reaching a tipping point, folks, when those who pay are the minority and those who receive are the majority.” Even such a sober figure as Mitt Romney regularly says things like “We are only inches away from no longer being a free economy,” and that this election “could be our last chance.”

The GOP has reason to be scared. Obama’s election was the vindication of a prediction made several years before by journalist John Judis and political scientist Ruy Teixeira in their 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority. Despite the fact that George W. Bush then occupied the White House, Judis and Teixeira argued that demographic and political trends were converging in such a way as to form a ­natural-majority coalition for Democrats.

The Republican Party had increasingly found itself confined to white voters, especially those lacking a college degree and rural whites who, as Obama awkwardly put it in 2008, tend to “cling to guns or religion.” Meanwhile, the Democrats had ­increased their standing among whites with graduate degrees, particularly the growing share of secular whites, and remained dominant among racial minorities. As a whole, Judis and Teixeira noted, the electorate was growing both somewhat better educated and dramatically less white, making every successive election less favorable for the GOP. And the trends were even more striking in some key swing states. Judis and Teixeira highlighted Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona, with skyrocketing Latino populations, and Virginia and North Carolina, with their influx of college-educated whites, as the most fertile grounds for the expanding Democratic base. [...]

Chait’s piece, “2012 or Never,” makes the case that this is it for the GOP.

Remember where conservatives were in November 2008, after Pres. Obama won?

We wrote about the death of conservatism back then, too, but in Obama’s first two years the Tea Party rose up, with a lot of help from Sarah Palin, who has long since squandered her power. But not before she helped rev up the religious conservative engine to make historic gains in the 2010 election midterms.

The new group of right wing religious conservatives pointed their energy at women, setting off a war on female freedoms we haven’t seen in decades, which went from state to state.

But religious conservatives overstepped, as many of us have been writing, because extremists always do eventually.

It came to a head when Pres. Obama mandated free contraceptive coverage, then took a scalpel to carve out a First Amendment exclusion that was not planned, but brilliantly played when the uproar played out just how David Plouffe’s polling told him it would.

Women of all faiths and none rose up, leaving the political landscape littered with talking heads and cable yakkers, mostly of the white male variety, their mouths agape, as they had to dial back their pompous vitriol and ignorance over what the First Amendment meant to everyone, not just “the church,” but women in the workplace, too.

Then Gov. Bob McDonnell took a very public flogging for Virginia’s Republican extremism that manifested in transvaginal state rape legislation, with the entire comedic universe bearing down on McDonnell, as well as every political new media site, pundit and writer who had a place to opine.

But according to Chait’s argument in his article, using data that’s been around a while, in the end it will all one day come down to demography.

Not tomorrow it won’t. But what was triggered to manifest when Pres. Obama came in to office, another opportunity very similar looks like it’s returned. Now if the world community, Israel, and Greece will cooperate… then there’s Iran.

The short-term depends on whether Rick Santorum can take Mitt Romney down in Michigan. But also whether the stories of Democrats helping Santorum do it amount to anything significant.

Surely Mitt Romney won’t allow Rick Santorum to beat him in the state where his dad was governor and he grew up. There is no overstating how big it would be if that happens.

What a Romney loss would mean for Republicans in 2012, however, is wild to contemplate.

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Clinton Blasts Russia and China on Syria; NATO Pulls Advisers Out of Kabul After 2 U.S. Officers Killed



Secy. Clinton’s statement on Syria from Friday is unequivocal. “The entire world, other than Russia and China, were willing to recognize we must take international action against the Syrian regime,” Clinton said. She went further, calling the action of China and Russia “despicable.” Then asked “Whose side are they on?” Clinton saying neither were on the side of the Syrian people.

Juan Cole writes about Hamas dispersing their interests away from Syria, their long-time patron.

Today, Mitt Romney on Fox News Sunday was asked about Pres. Obama’s apology for the inadvertent burning of Qurans at Bagram airbase, which reportedly had extremist messages inside. Romney asserted “this just sticks in their throat.” Wallace continued the mantra that “winning in Afghanistan” is even possible, whatever that definition means. Romney taking issue with Pres. Obama announce a date to draw down forces, inserting illogical neoconservatism in the place of assessing reality.

When it comes to foreign policy, minus Ron Paul, all of the Republican candidates are 20th century relics when it comes to envisioning America’s role in the world today.

In Afghanistan, the report from the New York Times:

Two American officers were shot dead inside the Interior Ministry building here on Saturday, and NATO responded by immediately pulling all its advisers out of Afghan ministries in Kabul, in a deepening of the crisis over the American military’s burning of Korans at a NATO military base.

The order by the NATO commander, Gen. John R. Allen, came on the fifth day of virulent anti-American demonstrations across the country, and it was a clear sign of concern that the fury had reached deeply into even the Afghan security forces and ministries working most closely with the coalition.

And a word about war with Iran from a friend of Tom Ricks:

The worst possible thing to do is go to war with Iran. The key is the people — and they are sick of the mullahs. Right now the pressure is working to separate the people from the regime. A limited strike would undercut all that.

[...] There is no doubt [that there is a huge divergence between U.S. interests and those of Israel]. We want to stop Israel from attacking so the issue is how to persuade Israel that we are serious about stopping Iran from having a weapon — like a congressional finding that we will take all steps necessary to stop Iran. It means we will define red lines that can’t be crossed.

But the bottom line is, I don’t know a single person in government, civilian or in uniform, who thinks it is in our national interest to go to war with Iran now.

Kiss of death? Rick Santorum gets a glowing tribute by Michael Ledeen in the Wall Street Journal over Santorum’s stance on Iran.

Turning to the GOP primary race, John Heilemann writes a long piece on Romney and the culmination of his candidacy that comes down to Michigan.

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Horror in Homs, Torture Reported Across Syria



The Red Cross has reached the city of Homs. Juan Cole retweeted the link for the video above, as “Friends of Syria” try to maneuver a way through this cricis, which will not be easy.

A CBS News report on what’s happening in Syria is even worse, including a map of documented torture.

Homs — which is mostly Sunni — was an early flashpoint of dissent against Assad’s regime, which is led by the minority Alawite community, which has Shiite power Iran as its main patron.

In April, protesters gathered at the central Clock Square in Homs, bringing mattresses, food and water in hopes of emulating Cairo’s Tahrir Square during the Egyptian revolution. Homs had a reputation for tolerance between Syria’s religions and Muslim sects, said Mohammad Saleh, an opposition figure who fled the city, but Sunnis have increasingly felt pushed into an underclass status by Assad.

A Western intelligence official said the Syrian military has the ability to “level Homs if it wanted to.” But the risks of backlash from Syria’s majority Sunnis — including many military officers — is far too great, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity under briefing rules.

[...] White House spokesman Jay Carney said the Obama administration still opposes military intervention but “obviously we’ll have to evaluate this as time goes on.”

In Geneva, a panel of U.N. human rights experts said the United Nations has a secret list of top Syrian officials who could face investigation for crimes against humanity. The U.N. experts indicated that the list goes as high as Assad.

Experts said the list appears mostly part of international pressures on Syria rather than a direct threat. Syria isn’t a member of the International Criminal Court so is outside its jurisdiction. Russia also would likely block any moves in the U.N. Security Council to refer the country to the Hague-based tribunal.

What we are reading about and seeing through the little news getting out of Syria is genocide. It is also far worse than what happened in Libya.

Speaking with Andrea Mitchell today, former SecDef William Cohen speculated about a “coalition of the willing” mounting a force against Assad, but was correct to emphasize the Arab nations must take the lead. With United Nations Security Council paralyzed, in order to save the Syrian people, the Arab League must step up, but let’s not kid ourselves that the U.S. won’t have an important role.

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Wounded Journalists Trapped in Syria After ‘Assassination’ Attempt

French President Nicolas Sarkozy called it an “assassination” attempt. Now one of the wounded journalists is reportedly in danger of going into shock from her wounds.

The dire situation has led to discussions about an ultimatum for Pres. Assad. From the AP:

The United States, Europe and Arab nations are preparing to demand that Syrian President Bashar Assad agree within days to a ceasefire and allow humanitarian aid into areas hardest hit by his regime’s brutal crackdown on opponents.

U.S., European and Arab officials were meeting in London on Thursday to craft details of an ultimatum to Assad that diplomats said could demand compliance within 72 hours or result in additional as-yet-unspecified punitive measures, likely to include toughened sanctions. The ultimatum is to be presented at a major international conference on Syria set for Friday in Tunisia.

This development comes as journalists in Syria reporting what is clearly genocide at the hands of Pres. Bashar al-Assad are reportedly being targeted. I wrote about it yesterday citing the deaths of Marie Colvin and Remi Ocklik, with the reports on their death throwing suspicion on Syrian Security Forces.

From Reuters:

French journalist Edith Bouvier and Paul Conroy, a British photographer from the Sunday Times, made their plea by video as the sound of rocket fire echoed in the background.

They were two of six Western journalists who came under fire on Wednesday when Syrian forces attacked the building where they were hiding in Baba Amro, an opposition stronghold in the central city of Homs.

American journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik were among 80 people killed in bombardments that day. …

The doctor treating him and Bouvier warned that surgery was critical to prevent blood clots in her leg, which could put her body into toxic shock and put her at risk of death.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy called the rocket assault that killed the journalists on Wednesday an “assassination.” “I saw the pictures, it’s an assassination,” he said, referring to the picture. “Those who carried out the assassination will have to pay for it.”

Meanwhile, Josh Rogin offers background on the first “Friends of Syria” meeting, which will convene in Tunis and focus on humanitarian access.

[...] The Tunis meeting should result in concrete proposal for speeding humanitarian and medical assistance to the civilians inside Syria, but all would require the agreement of the Assad regime, the official said.

The second main focus of the Tunis meeting will be to coalesce around a plan to transition toward democracy in Syria. Members of the Syrian National Council, the opposition group composed mostly of people living outside Syria, has its own plan for transition that it will present at the Tunis meeting. That plan and the Arab League backed plan for transition are not mutually exclusive, the State Department official said.

“Everybody is backing the Arab League transition plan who’s at the conference tomorrow, but it’s incumbent upon the Syrian National Council to talk about how they would translate that transition plan into action on the ground and for them to articulate it in a compelling way that’s comprehensible, understandable to Syrians inside and out,” said the official.

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Trial Date Set in Egypt for 16 Americans and Other Pro-Democracy Workers

NGO’s have rarely, if ever, been targeted this way and have been operating in Egypt and around the world for years.

Egypt sets trial date for pro-democracy workers – The trial of 43 people charged with unlawfully conducting pro-democracy work will begin Feb. 26, state media reported Saturday, in the latest sign that the Egyptian government is disinclined to heed Washington’s warning that failure to drop the matter could lead to a cut off of U.S. aid.

The announcement of a trial date for the defendants, including at least 16 Americans, came as the state-run newspaper, al-Ahram, published several stories that portrayed the work of the non-government organizations as underhanded and a threat to Egypt’s sovereignty.

The al-Ahram report goes on to say that Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, already requested to transport the 7 indicted Americans with him as he departed Cairo recently, with Secy. LaHood’s son one of those being detained. Egyptian officials decline the request.

White House and State Dept. hadn’t released statements at the time of this post.

As an aside, I have always marveled at Egyptian men turning away from the heritage seen in their ancient erotic art, drawings and relics. The earliest erotica can be traced back to ancient Egypt. Any time you see a watering can or vessel in mural or any other Egyptian art, pay close attention to the details, which very likely will lead you to a corporeal setting.

It’s hard to think of this latest development of the Egyptian revolution that ousted Mubarak without thinking of Secy. Clinton’s first words. She came out first to say the Mubarak regime was “stable,” quickly having to eat those words. Can there be any doubt that knowing the Middle East as she does what Clinton was envisioning were circumstances the U.S. could no longer control through our “friend”.

If you believe in freedom you’ve got to also understand that societies kept in bondage for a century are going to unleash fury once freed. That goes double for Egypt, which is the beating heart of where Sayyid Qutb, the godfather of Al Qaeda and leader of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood back in the ’50s and 1960s, lived.

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Secy. Clinton’s Strength at State Seen in Obama Budget

Secretary Clinton is welcomed to Munich conference by host Wolfgang Ischinger. State Dept Image (Feb 04, 2012)

Provides $51.6 billion in discretionary funding for the Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), an increase of 1.6 percent, or $0.8 billion over the 2012 enacted level when including Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) resources. Within tightly capped budget constraints, the Budget makes investments in key priorities including the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, plus continues funding for critical initiatives such as global health, climate change and food security. – Budget: DEPARTMENT OF STATE AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS

It’s the Hillary Effect.

An event that occurs or when something important is impacted because of Hillary Clinton’s presence, her power and strength of persuasion that is built entirely upon purpose.

It’s why she’s been so effective, even when I’ve disagreed with her, like on Libya. This chasm doesn’t change that her cunning helped get people, the Arab League for instance, to listen, then act.

It’s another example of what I write about in The Hillary Effect.

However, looking at Syria through the lens of Libya, let’s be perfectly clear what the Obama administration is saying through policy.

“Ultimately, it’s going to be important to convince the Assad regime that they are leading Syria into the outcome that we all deplore. We do not want to see a civil war in Syria,” Clinton said. “No one wants to see a civil war in Syria. So we have to encourage the Assad regime, and those who support it, to understand that there’s either a path toward peacemaking and democratic transition – which is what we are promoting – or there’s a path that leads toward chaos and violence, which we deplore.” – Clinton: We need Assad’s consent to put troops in Syria, by Josh Rogin

Humanitarian intervention through military might will be utilized, but only when it’s fully convenient; access to water helps. Because if any situation required humanitarian action and intervention by the world it is in Syria, where innocents are being slaughtered and have been for weeks. In Libya there was only a threat of massacre, whereas in Syria it’s playing out now.

However, as Rogin reports, the Obama administration is “looking for a political solution in Syria and won’t consider putting international troops there unless the Syrian regime agrees.” Because of the proximity of Syria to Israel and its primacy in the region, as well as being land-locked, which is no small issue, there is little the U.S. can do without risking very serious consequences, something that wasn’t a threat with Libya.

In Pres. Obama’s new budget, where the State Dept. received a slight increase over last year’s budget, you can see the prowess soft power has gained since Bush-Cheney. You can peruse for yourself, the entire State Dept. budget available on pdf.

I was thinking of Ryan Lizza’s article “The Obama Memos” when the news of Clinton’s budget victory the State Department was reported:

One Cabinet official made it clear that she did not share the President’s growing commitment to coupon-clipping: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She rejected the White House’s budget for her department, and wrote the President a six-page letter detailing her complaints. Some in the White House saw the long letter as a weapon, something that could be leaked if Clinton didn’t get her way. “At the proposed funding levels,” Clinton wrote, “we will not have the capacity to deliver either the full level of civilian staffing or the foreign assistance programs that underlie the civilian-military strategy you outlined for Afghanistan; nor the transition from U.S. Military to civilian programming in Iraq; nor the expanded assistance that is central to our Pakistan strategy.” She went on, “I want to emphasize that I fully understand the economic realities within which this budget is being constructed, and I share your commitment to fiscal responsibility. But I am deeply concerned about these funding levels.”

The letter contained indications of a real relationship between the former rivals. “You and I often speak about the need to restore the capacity of civilian agencies,” Clinton noted. But the general tone was stern and businesslike. It ended with an urgent plea for Obama to intervene on her behalf. “There is little room for progress unless you provide guidance that you are open to an increase in overall funding levels,” she wrote. Obama did indeed fight for some additional money for Clinton.

Mark Leon Goldberg had the same idea when he wrote his piece for UN Dispatches.

As I noted at the time of Pres. Obama’s State of the Union speech, we are seeing the final moves of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She’s stated that if Pres. Obama is reelected she will not serve a second term and I doubt anything will change her mind.

From Goldberg’s UN Dispatch’s piece on the budget, first section in bold below is from his original post, the second is added:

This will be the last foreign affairs budget request in which Hillary Clinton is Secretary of State. At a time when other agencies are seeing their budgets slashed or flat-lined, the State Department managed to receive a slight increase over last year’s funding levels. I can’t help but think that having a politically powerful Secretary of State had something to do with this.

Without a strong secretary of state fighting for diplomatic and soft power priorities, the cuts seen at other agencies would likely be delivered to the State Dept.

I’ve been thinking for some time whether Pres. Obama will pick Sen. John Kerry next; though I must say that Kerry coming out against Obama’s contraception mandate is not a small thing.

There can also be no doubt that Pres. Obama listened to Secy. Clinton’s case for the increase, proving this relationship has indeed been all that I wrote it would be.

State is also drawing down its personnel in Baghdad. Pres. George W. Bush’s boondoggle embassy in Iraq, a titanic monstrosity, is scheduled for massive cuts, which is very good news for everyone, especially the Iraqis.

The expansive diplomatic operation and the $750 million embassy building, the largest of its kind in the world, were billed as necessary to nurture a postwar Iraq on its shaky path to democracy and establish normal relations between two countries linked by blood and mutual suspicion. But the Americans have been frustrated by what they see as Iraqi obstructionism and are now largely confined to the embassy because of security concerns, unable to interact enough with ordinary Iraqis to justify the $6 billion annual price tag.

The swift realization among some top officials that the diplomatic buildup may have been ill advised represents a remarkable pivot for the State Department, in that officials spent more than a year planning the expansion and that many of the thousands of additional personnel have only recently arrived.

Michael W. McClellan, the embassy spokesman, said in a statement, “Over the last year and continuing this year the Department of State and the Embassy in Baghdad have been considering ways to appropriately reduce the size of the U.S. mission in Iraq, primarily by decreasing the number of contractors needed to support the embassy’s operations.”

Everyone remembers what the Cheney-Rumsfeld alliance did to the State Dept.

Secy. Clinton came in to a greatly diminished and in some cases, gravely demoralized foreign service team. What she’s done in Obama’s first term has injected new purpose, meaning and power into State, with the power she wields through the Hillary Effect giving her a seat at the boys’ table.

The Pentagon has won more battles, because the defense industry remains one of the toughest and most formidable lobbying arms in America, with the challenges in the world going well beyond State’s reach.

Issues, however, remain. They begin with Pres. Obama’s foreign policy itself and the eye-in-the-sky predator drone strike priority of his Administration, as well as the choice of surgical assassinations. It has rendered Obama counterterrorism policies a cold, bloodless, and lawless venture for Americans who simply look on from afar; the collateral damage we wreak void of glaring light or witness, except for the elite forces that sweep in and out unseen.

Progressives are looking the other way, with a Washington Post/ABC-News poll just last week showing Democrats approve of Pres. Obama’s tactics. Put the name Pres. Romney behind these same policies and I can hear the caterwauling echo. Both Glenn Greenwald and Greg Sargent made a similar point when the polling was first released.

The sharpest edges of President Obama’s counterterrorism policy, including the use of drone aircraft to kill suspected terrorists abroad and keeping open the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, have broad public support, including from the left wing of the Democratic Party.

The survey shows that 70 percent of respondents approve of Obama’s decision to keep open the prison at Guantanamo Bay. . . . The poll shows that 53 percent of self-identified liberal Democrats — and 67 percent of moderate or conservative Democrats — support keeping Guantanamo Bay open, even though it emerged as a symbol of the post-Sept. 11 national security policies of George W. Bush, which many liberals bitterly opposed. – Poll finds broad support for Obama’s counterterrorism policies

It’s why you have stories like what’s in the LA Times today:

Pentagon working with FAA to open U.S. airspace to combat drones

The military says the nearly 7,500 robotic aircraft it has accrued for use overseas need to come home at some point. But the FAA doesn’t allow drones in U.S. airspace without a special certificate.

It means when hell comes knocking at the hands of people who have scores to settle, nobody will have clean hands.

Secy. Clinton getting a small increase in State’s budget won’t come close to challenging what’s become a foreign policy that adopts a water’s edge philosophy in the worst of what that means. It melds Bush-Cheney with the Obama-Biden era, with the lack of morality and conscience best represented in Libya and Syria.

Being moral and just, committed to upholding U.S. and international laws in the face of great challenges including political pressure, but only when it’s convenient, isn’t something to commend or support.

This column has been updated.

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Dem Lawmaker: Obama Budget Nervous Breakdown on Paper

**UPDATED**

“This budget is a nervous breakdown on paper,” said Cleaver during an interview on CNN’s “Starting Point” Monday morning. “We’re still in a recession, we’re still struggling. Unemployment is still too high,” he said. – The Hill


Pres. Obama is also campaigning for the payroll tax cut to be extended, as you’ll see in the video.

As for the budget, Republican austerity star had a different take, of course:

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) accused the White House on Sunday of “failing … to articulate how their upcoming budget would lift the crushing burden of debt and tackle our nation’s most pressing challenges.”

…and the beat goes on.

UPDATE 3: Obama’s chief of staff Jack Lew misspeaks on Senate numbers to pass budget.

UPDATE 2: Reuters covers the $800 million for the Arab Spring.

UPDATE: Obama’s budget remarks have been added above. Politico has a rundown, which includes “an additional $593 million proposal to do away with tax deductions for conservation easements on golf courses.”

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Obama and the Boiling Middle East

“So what do we do? Well, faced with a neutered Security Council, we have to redouble our efforts outside of the United Nations with those allies and partners who support the Syrian people’s right to have a better future. We have to increase diplomatic pressure on the Assad regime and work to convince those people around President Assad that he must go, and that there has to be a recognition of that and a new start to try to form a government that will represent all of the people of Syria,” [Secy. Hillary Clinton] said. – Josh Rogin

It’s no secret I was against the Libya bombing and remain so. Watching the carnage in Syria reveals the flaws in the Obama administration’s strategy, as much as there was one. The unspeakable, which Josh Rogin said outright last night, is civil war in Syria. Even as Secy. Clinton worked the Arab League hard to make the NATO mission feasible, regime change looks differently once it’s over and the fallout begins.

See Egypt, where Americans are reportedly to be tried, including Secy. Ray LaHood’s son. Our so-called relationship today in that country as bad as it’s been in decades, which Josh Rogin explained with Chris Hayes last night. No doubt Secy. Clinton’s first instinct to bolster Mubarak came from this dreaded place. However, the truth is wider and deeper, of an American policy supporting dictators who are our allies in torture and rendition, as both Mubarak and Assad have been, while the people suffer.

The Arab Spring has unleashed a lot of energy, none of which Pres. Obama can predict, contain or manage very easily, but considering we engaged in the contagion to try and impact it, he’ll have to take ownership of something that is uncontrollably unpredictable.

Stephen Walt offers some thoughts on Syria, after the Libyan NATO mission.

One can argue that this was the right course of action anyway, because getting rid of a thug like Qaddafi was worth it. That’s a debate for another day, although I would note in passing that post-Qaddafi Libya remains deeply troubled and the collapse of the regime seems to be fueling conflicts elsewhere. But what if the Libyan precedent is one of the reasons why Russia and China aren’t playing ball today? They supported Resolution 1973 back in 2011, and then watched NATO and a few others make a mockery of multilateralism in the quest to topple Qaddafi. The Syrian tragedy is pay-back time, and neither Beijing nor Moscow want to be party to another effort at Western-sponsored “regime change.” It is hardly surprising that Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin condemned the failed resolution on precisely these grounds. In short, our high-handed manipulation of the SC process in the case of Libya may have made it harder to gain a consensus on Syria, which is arguably a far more important and dangerous situation.

Also read Marc Lynch on what a horror it is that the U.N. failed, which no doubt is making the neoconservatives gleeful.

I wrote about this just a few days ago, but if you count Iran and Israel, the economy may be the least of Obama’s worries, with the Middle East possibly throwing a curve to all the prognosticators.

With Pres. Obama’s foreign policy credentials including ordering the slaying of Osama bin Laden, there is no sense whatsoever that Mitt Romney can make a serious challenge to Pres. Obama if the Middle East goes south.

What that means to Republicans picking a nominee is anyone’s guess. It also could be why Newt Gingrich has seduced himself into thinking the race isn’t over.

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China and Russia Block U.N. Action on Syria

Thirty years after his father massacred tens of thousands of innocent Syrian men, women, and children in Hama, Bashar al-Assad has demonstrated a similar disdain for human life and dignity. [...] Every government has the responsibility to protect its citizens, and any government that brutalizes and massacres its people does not deserve to govern. The Syrian regime’s policy of maintaining power by terrorizing its people only indicates its inherent weakness and inevitable collapse. Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community… – Pres. Obama

Diplomatically, it was Secy. Clinton versus Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, giving dueling public speeches that came before the U.N. vote delivering a double veto. From Clinton at the Munich Security Summit:

Here in Munich, I have had productive discussions with a number of my counterparts concerning a list of critical issues. One that kept coming up is the ongoing violence in Syria. As a bankrupt regime clings to power by shelling its own people in their homes, we have seen a living nightmare play out in the city of Homs. It’s a nightmare that has been repeated across Syria over these past many months. Almost 30 days – almost 30 years to the day after the infamous Hama massacre, the international community must send Assad a clear message: By repeating the horrors of Syria’s past, you have lost your place in Syria’s future.

From the New York Times we get the outcome:

A United Nations Security Council effort to end the violence in Syria collapsed in acrimony with a double veto by Russia and China on Saturday, hours after the Syrian military attacked the city of Homs in what opposition leaders described as the deadliest government assault in the nearly 11-month uprising.

The veto and the mounting violence underlined the dynamics shaping what is proving to be the Arab world’s bloodiest revolt: diplomatic stalemate and failure as Syria plunges deeper into what many are already calling a civil war. Diplomats have lamented their lack of options in pressuring the Syrian government, and even some Syrian dissidents worry about what the growing confrontation will mean for a country reeling from bloodshed and hardship.

According to Reuters, the latest death toll was 217 people.

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Economic News Buoys Obama, as Israel & Iran Chatter Grows

The pace of job creation surged in January, with the US economy generating 243,000 new positions while the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, according to government data released Friday. – CNBC

Official White House Photo by Pete Souza



This is fantastic news. Besides the people impacted by the turn in the economy, Obama reelect gets a boost too.

“What’s not to like about the report?” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York. “Not only did payrolls exceed forecasts…but between the November and December revisions employers added 160,000 more jobs than first thought.” – CNBC

I’d like to just offer one note of caution as 2012 election season starts to be seen only through the jobs and unemployment numbers. This is understandable, but as we learned on the run-up to George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004, when Osama bin Laden popped up in a video, what is suspected to be the issue, Bush-Cheney’s screw-up on Iraq, didn’t turn out to do him in. Obama gave the order for a daring SEAL Team Six mission to take out Osama, for which he doesn’t get enough credit, but there other foreign policy areas where he is less surefooted.

There is growing chatter about developments surrounding Iran and Israel. Richard Haas talked about it this week on “Morning Joe,” stressing a new element, the “zone of immunity.” David Ignasius wrote about it yesterday:

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has a lot on his mind these days, from cutting the defense budget to managing the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. But his biggest worry is the growing possibility that Israel will attack Iran over the next few months.

Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the United States could then stop them militarily.

In his State of the Union Speech, Pres. Obama trotted out the old and tired war rattling words “no option off the table” to make the point about Iran. I mentioned earlier when talking about Newt Gingrich and Sheldon Adelson (see Wayne Barrett here and here), who’s whole reason for being is to saber rattle on Iran, that DNI Clapper had warned about Iranian attacks inside the U.S.

There’s an interesting post up at Huffington Post on the entire subject of Obama and Iran.

Mitt Romney is so incredibly weak on national security issues that there can be little doubt he’d have to trip the full neoconservative wire to pass muster with Republicans.

Pres. Obama has shown his Bushesque colors throughout his foreign policy decisions, with an election year bringing even bigger challenges to him. As many of you remember, he ducked an important vote on Iran as a senator running for president. There has been much criticism on his Israeli policy as president, most undeserved. Pres. Obama has been a steadfast friend to Israel, as all American presidents must be, with Romney’s “appeasement” lines absurd.

It has leaked that US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen. Martin Dempsey warned the Israelis that if they launched a strike on Iran that spiralled into a war, they would be on their own. – Juan Cole

It’s a long way until November. However, never underestimate election year foreign policy problems to distract people who remain unhappy about the direction of the country. If Iran and Israel become front and center the Middle East could raise its head and turn the election into something no one anticipates today.

This election year is primed for shock waves.

This column has been updated.

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Nancy Reagan Rejects Newt’s ‘Legitimate Heir’ Claim

…and so continues Newt Gingrich’s very bad day.

He can take heart on one thing. DNI James R. Clapper Jr. has added fuel to Gingrich’s Iranian rhetorical fire, which will make the Republicans day. From the Washington Post today:

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Iran is prepared to launch terrorist attacks inside the United States in response to perceived threats from America and its allies, the U.S. spy chief said Tuesday.

Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. said in prepared testimony that an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington that was uncovered last year reflects an aggressive new willingness within the upper ranks of the Islamist republic to authorize attacks against the United States.

Maybe that will take the sting out of Mrs. Reagan’s slap.

Few reporters have better sources inside Reagan World than NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, who goes way back. With Mrs. Reagan still alive and undoubtedly very protective of the Reagan legacy as she sees it, there was little doubt that Newt’s claims wouldn’t go unchallenged.

From NBC’s First Read:

Calling himself “the legitimate heir to the Reagan movement,” Newt Gingrich recently cited a 1995 speech by Nancy Reagan in which the former First Lady said that her husband “passed on the torch” to him.

… But as NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports, Gingrich appears to be taking that comment out of context.

Sources close to Nancy Reagan said the speech itself was written by the host at the Goldwater Organization – where Mrs. Reagan delivered the remarks – and that she was referring generally to Congress and not specifically to the former Speaker, Mitchell reported on her MSNBC program.

Mrs. Reagan isn’t going to let anyone use Ronnie’s legacy for their own aggrandizement, certainly not a political grifter like Newt, with his hangers-on like Sarah Palin.

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Leaked Syrian Report at Foreign Policy

“What I saw was a humanitarian disaster. The regime is not just committing one war crime, but a series of crimes against its people,” said Malek. “The snipers are everywhere shooting at civilians. People are being kidnapped. Prisoners are being tortured and none were released.” – report by Column Lynch

After calling for President Bashar al-Assad to step down, which was ignored, the Arab League also called off its mission to monitor the carnage inside Syria this past Saturday. Considering they reportedly didn’t have enough armored vehicles and too few bullet-proof vests, with the details from Turtle Bay’s Column Lynch about the Chinese passing the walkie-talkies, it would be laughable if the situation hadn’t been so deadly.

Gen. Mohamed Ahmed Moustafa Al-Dabbi was in charge of the mission, which is part of the problem. Lynch has a good rundown on the general:

The mission’s international standing was also diminished by the selection of its monitoring chief — General Al-Dabbi, a close advisor of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court. Al-Dabbi also served as a top military officer in Darfur, Sudan, at a time when the government was organizing local militia, known as the Janjaweed, that were involved in mass killings of civilians in the region. An Algerian member of the Arab team, Anwar Malek, resigned in protest, telling Al Jazeera that the mission was a “farce.”

The leaked report is available over at Lynch’s Turtle Bay. The Europeans are unimpressed by it, while the Russians and the Security Council are in it over the bloodletting in Syria. One thing is clear after reading the report and that is the Syrian government seems to have had no intention of allowing it to succeed. From Lynch:

On Jan. 18, Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby ordered the suspension of the organization’s observer mission, its first major experiment in human rights monitoring. He claimed that the escalation of violence had undercut its ability to do its job.

But a confidential account of the organization’s mission, signed by the monitor’s controversial chief and obtained by Turtle Bay, shows that the Arab monitors were hobbled from the beginning by a shortage of equipment — and by what Al-Dabbi describes as a ferocious Syrian media disinformation campaign against the monitors and him personally. “The credibility of the mission has been undermined in the minds of Arab and foreign viewers,” he wrote.

[...] “The mission…sensed the acute stress, injustice and oppression endured [by] Syrian citizens,” Al-Dabbi wrote. “Yet they are convinced that the Syrian crisis must be resolved peacefully, in the Arab context, and not internationalized so that they can live in peace securely, and achieve the desired reforms and changes.” That said, he is surprisingly candid and critical of the observer mission’s ability to perform well the task required of them.

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Sheldon Adelson Couldn’t Buy Newt Florida

If you wanted to know the state of Newt Gingrich’s campaign right now all you had to do was watch Fred Thompson on Meet the Press on Sunday. With his hair slicked back and wisps of uncut frizz flipping out in the back, Thompson delivered his lines haltingly and with his head bowed, while focusing downward as he talked. I won’t get into the fantasy Thompson floated that if Republicans had held out during the government shutdown in the mid-90s they’d have… er, won. It was a tour de force whine from camp Gingrich about how big bad Mitt had played too dirty. Hypocrisy unlimited, the bellyaching stems from the reality that Newt can’t match Mitt’s money, because if he could he’d be doing the same thing. Anybody doubt that fact?

Favorite recent headline: Newt May Be Mad and Mental Enough to Fight On Long After Florida, an article by John Heilimann.

Here’s an excerpt:

In a weekend of trailing the former speaker to a series of events along the I-4 corridor, there was just no escaping that a campaign that was flying high (and even into outer space) ten days ago has now come crashing back to earth. At what was billed as a Hispanic town hall meeting at another church yesterday in Orlando, Gingrich was greeted by row after row of empty pews and maybe 40 voters in attendance. For a full hour after the scheduled starting time, Gingrich and his wife, Callista, sat outside, cloistered in his campaign bus — possibly sulking, possibly fuming at his campaign’s horrid advance work, and surely praying that a few more souls would show up. When Gingrich finally entered the building, it was announced that the event was a town hall no more; the candidate would speak briefly, then take pictures with the scant few who’d turned up. And “briefly” was an understatement: Standing behind a Lucite lectern, Gingrich talked for a bare eight minutes and eleven seconds, looking deflated and exhausted. By no small margin, it was the worst and saddest campaign event that I have witnessed in this presidential cycle.

Now all the talk in the political world is about how badly Newt Gingrich could get beat tomorrow, with everyone anticipating a large margin win by Mitt Romney.

A lot of Republicans are hoping for it and an end to the savage bloodletting, as well as the debates. Sen. John McCain said on Meet the Press Sunday that they’ve got to end. Chris Wallace said the debates were “ridiculous,” “insane,” and “stupid” recently on a radio show. The next one is at the end of February, which will be a very long month for Newt Gingrich.

Sheldon Adelson bought Newt Gingrich South Carolina. What he’s gotten for his money is another story. It’s about Israel and Iran, but having a candidate in the race that can define the debate rightward where the Middle East is concerned.

RT @RyanLizza: Newt warning Iranians could easily blow up Jacksonville with nuclear weapon (via boat).

I retweeted the above to make the point. You may remember Gingrich saying the Palestinian people were “invented.”

We should all be thankful Mitt Romney’s rich, organized and that his campaign is not going to take their foot off Gingrich’s throat again.

“It not about winning here anymore,” one Romney staffer told BuzzFeed. “It’s about destroying Gingrich — and it’s working.” – Zeke Miller, BuzzFeed

There’s no comfort when you look at Mitt Romney where the Middle East is concerned either. To say foreign policy isn’t his forte is an understatement. So with neoconservatives and John Bolton in the background, with Newt in cahoots with Adelson, it’s all very weirdly counterproductive for Israel and for the U.S. on the right.

Mr. Adelson and his wife were evidently cynical enough to believe that American Jews living in Florida would buy Newt’s message. It doesn’t look like it’s selling. The question is whether Adelson will keep the money flowing if Gingrich loses big in Florida, because where this race heads next depends on it.

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