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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Tag Archives | New Jersey

Party’s Over

hoffman_ny23

Everybody is an independent. Obama’s non-ideological penchant has spread. It’s the antidote to tea partyism.

Dan Baltz has the traditional view:

The most significant change came among independent voters, who solidly backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 but moved decisively to the Republicans on Tuesday, according to exit polls. In Virginia, independents strongly supported Republican Robert F. McDonnell in his victory over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, while in New Jersey, they supported Republican Chris Christie in his win over Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine.

For months, polls have shown that independents were increasingly disaffected with some of Obama’s domestic policies. They have expressed reservations about the president’s health-care efforts and have shown concerns about the growth in government spending and the federal deficit under his leadership. …

Obama’s bailout was a disaster, but as far as “health-care efforts”, you can argue that too little has been done leaving voters empty, while they wonder why Wall Street is flying high, with health care unfortunately now part of that mix.

The model win for the night was Bob McDonnell in Virginia who didn’t run ads identifying himself as a Republican even though he’s farther to the right than most on the national scene.

In other words, in the age of Obama, it’s now more about personality power over party ideology even more than it was before. However, when you have someone like Deeds who isn’t as talented as Obama, and send them out into an election without core principles on which to campaign and fight, they’re going to get shellacked.

It’s not for amateurs.

After watching a brief clip of Mr. Hoffman on the late night version of “Hardball” last night, all I could think of was how in the world did he get this far? Worst politician I’ve seen on camera at this level in a very long time. But he and his tea party friends managed to knock off Scozzafava, even as she helped knock him off. We Democrats, salute you.

The New Jersey loss is the big one, which will likely send shockwaves through the Blue Dogs, as well as the Bayh, Lincoln, Nelson and Lieberman coalition in the Senate. This bodes ill for real health care reform and big accomplishments, which is the only way Dems can make the case in 2010, because Obama won’t be on the ballot next year either.

Hey, but a least we’re not Republicans, who are in the throes of a political war. Democrats don’t have that kind of passion to worry about at this point. We’re all hoped out. See Maine.

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Obama Not a Factor, But Independents Flood to GOP

multiple updates below
(Post originally logged @ 8:38 pm)

Earthquake in New Jersey, according to Fox News and CNN. On top of the independent voter news, this is huge. But in NY-23, the tea party activist candidate Hoffman is on his way to a loss, with the Dem possibly winning in a district we haven’t won in 200 years, though final tallies won’t be ready until tomorrow. Tea party activists came close, but maybe not enough. Though not long ago a Hoffman supporter said, “it’s over.” To tea party activists it will be a disappointment, but it won’t matter. It was about more than winning for them. It was about backing people they want in office, no matter the costs, even if they lose. Message sent. For Republicans, the civil war continues.

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Health care freezes now. Blue Dogs and other Dems won’t budge on big legislation. All this with the Republican brand in tatters.

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Via CNN:

In Virginia, where 30 percent of voters identify themselves as independent; 65 percent cast their ballots for CNN’s projected winner, Republican Bob McDonnell. That’s according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Democrat Creigh Deeds earned the votes of 34 percent of independents.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie took 58 percent of the independent vote while incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, got only 31 percent. Independent candidate Chris Daggett got just 9 percent of the independent vote. Independents made up 28 percent of the voters in New Jersey race.

Christie leading huge in early returns.

Polls over the last couple of months have revealed a trend away from Democrats. It now seems to have manifested. We shall see as the night deepens.

Six in 10 New Jersey voters said Tuesday that President Obama had no effect on their vote in this off-year gubernatorial election, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. – CNN

Except on Fox, where Bill O’Reilly and Karl Rove said the opposite. I know, you’re shocked.

As for Creigh Deeds, standing for nothing has consequences, as does running as a Blue Dog in a state that likes strong. Deeds saying he would “opt-out” of the public option was the end for Democrats. See conversation with my friend Mash (a Virginian) @ Facebook.

What’s on voters’ minds? Via CBS:

A majority of voters in both states said they are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy over the next year. 85 percent of Virginia voters said they are worried, as are 90 percent of voters in New Jersey. These percentages were similar on Election Day in 2008.

In both states the economy topped the list of issues that mattered most to voters in their choice for governor – in Virginia health care was second, while in New Jersey the second choice was property taxes.

… Still, majorities of voters in both states (55 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (20 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (18 percent) than against him (24 percent).

…and I want to take you back to the National Journal’s new media poll from last week. What are the two big issues for 2010? I said economy, but also added my own category to include GOTV. Tonight I’ve been proved correct on both. From ABC:

Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday’s off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. …

Yep, it’s still “the economy, stupid.”

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