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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Tag Archives | Venezuela

What Might Happen Around the World in 2012?

By on 14 December 2011

Global recession with a surprise winner or two – The Eurozombies may avoid catastrophe but instead produce a macroeconomic remake of Night of the Living Dead. Recession in austerity-bound Europe will only be worsened by the sweeping downturn already taking place in the emerging world, and the result could be a deeper slump worldwide. But here’s the twist: the United States will win, as it is a destination for those in the midst of one of the most confusing, frustrating flights to quality in recent history. Japan too. They won’t do very well at all, but in the global ugly contest they may take home least-ugly honors. – David Rothkopf

So, what could happen in 2012?

David Rothkopf over at Foreign Policy has done his next year headlines in review list, many of which don’t take an expert’s mind to name. Stephen Walt has his own that includes Israel accepting the Arab League Peace Plan. Rothkopf thinks the Eurozone will strengthen. More are below.

The end of Ahmadinejad, but it won’t come through Dick Cheney’s fantasies or any neoconservative getting his war wishes in a Christmas stocking. From Erin Burnett’s “Out Front,” when Burnett brought up the RQ-170 sentinel:

CHENEY: I would assume that’s the case. Or they’ll send it back in pieces after they’ve gotten all the intelligence they can out of it.

The right response to that would have been to go in immediately after it had gone down and destroy it. You can do that from the air. You can do that with a quick airstrike, and in effect make it impossible for them to benefit from having captured that drone. I was told that the president had three options on his desk. He rejected all of them.

BURNETT: And they all involved removing the drone immediately?

CHENEY: They all involved sending somebody in to try to recover it, or if you can’t do that, admittedly that would be a difficult operation, you certainly could have gone in and destroyed it on the ground with an airstrike. But he didn’t take any of the options. He asked for them to return it. And they aren’t going to do that.

The world is going to continue to have major shifts in power centers.

The collapse of Assad in Syria, which couldn’t come soon enough as far as I’m concerned.

Political unrest in China? It’s the beginning, Rothkopf predicts.

Power struggle in Pakistan?  Nothing new there.

Say goodbye to Castro and Hugo Chavez?

Incoming “cybershocker” that will take down somebody financially.

Putin’s not going to return to power easily.

…and get ready for extremism in Africa to become an American strategic interest.

Interesting list, as is Stephen Walt’s.

Do you have any thoughts on what might happen in the world next year?

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Austerity is In Among Ruling Class

By on 26 January 2011

TM NOTE: Texan4Hillary offers his perspective as a movement progressive activist.

“Plundering the weak and shooting them in their heads when they resist — that’s the definition of courage to America’s degenerate ruling class.”- – Reaganomics Critic Mark Ames

In the American era of austerity, where those who want to slash social programs are hailed by the media as heroes, it’s important we keep reminding ourselves that austerity is a loser at the ballot box for its proponents and often leads to much worse.

Last night we saw Obama move to freeze the budget for 5 years, like Hoover, which will have a devastating impact for those in need. NIH, HUD, education would be bludgeoned with this freeze. See this report for a preview of those painful cuts we must suffer.

As Obama moves to freeze the budget, his deficit commission lives on in a bill co-authored by Senator Mark Warner (D-Va) and Senator Chambliss (R-Ga). It would raise the Social Security retirement age to 69, get rid of key tax breaks for the middle class, make major changes to Medicare and best of all: it has 2 dozen sponsors thus far in the Senate. Read more on it here.

Perhaps the radical Right, Rep. Ryan, Obama, Warner and the rest of the ruling class should do a little reading. Author Mark Ames continues his work on Right wing economics and its destructive path. In his latest piece he finds some disturbing examples of austerity and its political impact:

(Austerity) measures almost always end in the worst worst-case-scenario imaginable: economic disaster, violence and repression.

Let’s start with the most catastrophic of all austerity programs in history—the one austerity program none of the Austerity Snake Oil peddlers want you to know about. It was the disastrous austerity program tested out in Germany way back in 1930, under Chancellor Heinrich Bruning, himself an austere centrist.

The Depression was just spreading around the globe, and Bruning, backed by Germany’s industry titans, believed Germany would only recover with a strong currency, which he tethered to the gold standard, and a balanced budget through brutal cuts in wages, pensions and unemployment benefits, and hikes in taxes and fees. Bruning learned austerity as a doctoral student at the London School of Economics — which nurtured and promoted “free-market” whores like Friedrich von Hayek and the “Austrian School” that is still being piped out to us through major outlets like the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal …

Bruning applied the von Hayek medicine to Germany, and the resulting backlash was so intense he suspended parliamentary democracy and ruled by emergency decree, setting a fine example for the next guy who took power. After just two years of “austerity” measures, Germany’s economy had completely collapsed: unemployment doubled from 15 percent in 1930 to 30 percent in 1932, protests spread, and Bruning was finally forced out. Just two years of austerity, and Germany was willing to be ruled by anyone or anything except for the kinds of democratic politicians that administered “austerity” pain.

Ames also looks at Venezuala, Lithuania and Russia:

Venezuela’s austerity programs created greater poverty, richer oligarchs, worse corruption, and the inevitable backlash in the form of Hugo Chavez, who staged a coup in 1992 that almost succeeded…and later won the presidency through the ballot box. Perez had to flee to Miami with his family to avoid being put on trial for the massacre; he died just last month in shame.

Austerity programs in the ex-communist Soviet countries led to similar disastrous results: As I wrote about in the Nation, Larry Summers oversaw Lithuania’s austerity program in the early 1990s, sparking overnight the world’s highest suicide rate, economic misery and a backlash that made Lithuania the first country in the former communist bloc to vote the communists back into power — anything to stop the pain.

In Russia, austerity measures dictated by the same Hayek groupies in the IMF led to a complete financial market meltdown, an over 50 percent collapse in the GDP, the untimely deaths of millions, and of course the requisite President Yeltsin ruling by decree, bombing his own parliament, then finally snuffing democracy by handing the Kremlin over to his crony, Vladimir Putin.

So we have Summers advising austerity in the 1990s in former Soviet bloc nations , and causing the return of the Communists to power in Lithuania.

Britain is today on a austerity binge of maddening proportions. College campus riots have ensued over tuition hikes, Prince Charles got pinned in his car by protesters, and P.M. Cameron is creating such a situation that it’s inevitable social and political problems are going to explode beyond his control. See Britain in 1930, Ames again:

In England, austerity measures led to one of the biggest mutinies in Britain’s military history since the time of the French Revolution; the Invergordon Mutiny of 1931, when up to half the Royal Navy rose up against austerity cuts, took over ships and sent fears of a Bolshevik revolution throughout the country. The mutiny and strikes worked somewhat: Britain was finally forced to abandon the gold standard, and wage cuts were softened.

Austerity is not a winner. Electorally its a proven disaster. In Texas in 2003 the GOP slashed public education and CHIP funding massively. The backlash was fierce with the Democrats taking 22 seats in the statehouse. They came 2 seats shy of controlling the state legislature, then the 2010 wipeout happened. But I predict in Texas and any other state doing this sort of thing the backlash is going to be monstrous. You cannot wholesale cut vital programs to the bone and expect to return to office when done.

Beware austerity Democrats and Republicans. Read history and the polls. Raise taxes if need be, but keep services running or pay the consequences.

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The Clinton – Falkland Kerfuffle

By on 02 March 2010

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Right-wing writer and Fox News contributor Nile Gardiner is going for the hyperbole gold on this one.

The Secretary of State, a highly skilled political operator, knows exactly what she is doing here. She is giving her full support for the official stance of Buenos Aires, despite the fact that Great Britain has made it clear that the sovereignty of the Falklands is non-negotiable. She makes no reference at all to the fact that Argentina recently threatened a blockade of the Falklands, or that its close ally Venezuela has been threatening war against Britain.

Hillary Clinton’s dire performance in Buenos Aires was not only an appalling display of appeasement towards a corrupt and authoritarian anti-American regime, which barely has the support of 20 percent of the Argentinian people. It was also an astonishing betrayal of the United Kingdom by her closest ally, and yet another slap in the face for Britain from the Obama administration.

Clinton has demonstrated, not the first time, strikingly poor judgment as Secretary of State. …

All righty then.

What did Sect. Clinton say?

SECRETARY CLINTON: And we agree. We would like to see Argentina and the United Kingdom sit down and resolve the issues between them across the table in a peaceful, productive way.

QUESTION: (In Spanish) Interpreter: The journalist was just asking how the U.S. intends to negotiate to get the United Kingdom to sit at the table and address the Malvinas issue.

SECRETARY CLINTON: As to the first point, we want very much to encourage both countries to sit down. Now, we cannot make either one do so, but we think it is the right way to proceed. So we will be saying this publicly, as I have been, and we will continue to encourage exactly the kind of discussion across the table that needs to take place.

The “Malvinas issue” is the Falkland islands, specifically, the plans of the Brits to excavate and drill for oil in these islands. But using the term “Malvinas” is upsetting to Brits, though it’s how Argentinians refer to them, as they try to nudge involvement of the U.S., which is never going to happen and everyone knows it. Argentina also boasting they have the support of “33 foreign ministers of Latin America and the Caribbean,” according to reports, that side with Argentina over the British over the issue.

As for Chavez’s two cents? Here’s a sampling, to which Mr. Gardiner referred.

In recent days and during yesterday’s summit, most of the regional leaders backed Argentina’s claims. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez addressed Britain’s Queen Elizabeth directly on his weekly television programme, telling her to return the Malvinas to Argentina. He repeated his claims late Sunday when he arrived in Mexico for the summit.

“We support unconditionally the Argentine government and the Argentine people in their complaints,” Chávez told reporters at the airport.

“That sea and that land belongs to Argentina and to Latin America.”

He even pledged to send his armed forces to Argentina’s defence if Britain attacks, telling his allies they can “have the security of knowing they aren’t alone” against what he called British threats.

Expect the usual suspects to weigh in on this one.

The Falkland Islands and the current situation between Britain and Argentina is none of our business.

The right and other critics of Clinton are saying, by her weighing in that the Brits and Argentina should simply “sit at the table and address the Malvinas issue,” that Sect. Clinton has waded in where we don’t belong, her critics going so far as to say she’s taken sides. Perhaps because while in Argentina she said “Malivinas issue” instead of Falkland Islands.

Nuts! This is much ado about nothing. But that never stopped anyone before.

The nature of diplomacy is to make no waves, which in our current hyper-partisan media environment is impossible. Just take a look at the comments attached to Mr. Gardiner’s piece.

… Part of the reason that Clinton has gone to Latin America is to see President Lula of Brazil. The US is trying to get the UN security council to adopt new sanctions against Iran and Brazil, which is on the 15-member council, is reluctant to back sanctions. The British government rejected Clinton’s offer to mediate, and the US will accept that, more concerned about conflicts in the Middle East and Central Asia than the islands of the South Atlantic. – Why Clinton won’t take Argentina’s side

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Hissy Fit Over a Handshake

By on 20 April 2009

“I thought Pres. Obama did an excellent job of expressing the values and priorities of the United States of America. He allowed a dialogue to take place and a good spirit to animate the room, which I thought made the meetings productive. I think made the United States– took the United States to a higher plain than the Venezuelans of the world.” – Prime Minister Stephen Harper

At least Canada’s Stephen Harper understands. But then he was there so he knew what went down. Call him a sane conservative, if you will.

Then there is the gored ox theory, representing the right-wing, most of whom came off of their collective hinge at the sight of President Barack Obama having a cordial conversation with the President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich tore into President Barack Obama Monday for his friendly greeting of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, saying Obama is bolstering the “enemies of America.”

Gingrich appeared on a number of morning talk shows comparing Obama to President Jimmy Carter for the smiling, hearty handshake he offered Chavez, one of the harshest critics of the United States, during the Summit of the Americas.

“Frankly, this does look a lot like Jimmy Carter. Carter tried weakness, and the world got tougher and tougher, because the predators, the aggressors, the anti-Americans, the dictators – when they sense weakness, they all start pushing ahead,” Gingrich said on “Fox & Friends.” …

Congress’ veterinarian, John Ensign, called Obama’s interaction “irresponsible,” with his perfectly coiffed hair practically standing on end at the thought of our President “laughing and joking” with Chavez. Mr. Ensign also having forgotten that the 50-year embargo never succeeded in dethroning Castro.

But it was on Joe Scarborough’s show today where they pushed the old line that all diplomacy has to be a stiff arm to people we can actually squash with little effort. He got a lot of help from Patrick J. Buchanan who called Obama a “kid on the school yard that can be pushed around because he’s too sweet.”

The Gingrich-Scarborough line, which is basically a you’ve got to be careful strategy, because those tyrants will think you’re weak if you shake their hand, completely ignores that we aren’t in the age of Yalta or Kennedy-Khrushchev. We’re in the post Bush-Cheney era, mending fences with the entire world. Unfortunately, Republicans don’t seem willing to walk into the 21st century and get a grip that post Bush-Cheney, Pres. Obama has got to signal the Bush-Cheney chapter has, at last, finally closed.

Evidently, Newt, Joe and Pat also wanted Obama to address Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s outrageous harangue that included the charge the U.S. embargo of Cuba was “a real genocide.”

Seriously, the leader of the free world, the American President, is supposed to respond to Mr. Ortega’s rant? Or worse, acknowledge these outlandish statements? No one’s even talking about them but Newt, Joe and Pat.

When will the right understand that the U.S. is the most powerful nation on planet earth, which actually means we don’t have to rise to every piece of lunatic bait that’s thrown at us?

Did Newt, Joe and Pat not notice that it was Bush who gave Chavez the platform from which he berated the United States continually, to cheers from around the world? And that helped us how?

Besides, take a look at the tape of Chavez handing Obama the book, and you will see plainly that Venezuela’s president was rushing up to Obama like a giddy little boy, handing him a book so he had a reason to squeeze himself into the limelight; getting his picture taken with the man everyone wants to meet, Barack Obama, which was not lost on our President:

Mr Obama pointed out that he held conversations with other critics of Washington, including Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega and Bolivia’s Evo Morales.

“I think it’s just that President Chavez is better at positioning the cameras,” the US leader said.

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Twitter Liveblogging: Cuba

By on 14 April 2009

TM NOTE & UPDATE: The plugin that allows me to liveblog via Twitter is created and designed by Mash, via @thisismash. Great thanks to him, someone who has offered many foreign policy posts for me, focusing on Central Asia. Great plugin. Incredibly valuable to my continued foreign policy reporting.

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8:57:28 AM: New America Foundation forum (see previous post), Steve Clemons moderating, with vid avail @ TheWashingtonNote.

9:03:43 AM: Steve Coll: Obama’s exec order “important but incremental.” Subset aspect a first.

9:07:08 AM: Clemons: Every president but GWB, even Reagan, made “pivot” of some sort towards Cuba policy changes.

9:09:41 AM: Julia Sweig, “grand diva,” according to Clemons, on the region, with book coming out. Femme rep on panel.

9:12:57 AM: Wilkerson: consult the arts, calypso: “Barack the Magnificent.” Teddy last prez to be considered.

9:15:04 AM: Wilk: this relationship is “tortured.” The “infinitesimal movement” was made yesterday.

9:17:44 AM: Meacham: “This was a big change yesterday…very imp develpmnt.” “Op for dialogue”

9:20:52 AM: Sweig:”I guess I just wish that one didn’t require a hyphen” in order to enjoy. Only country w this restriction.

9:24:52 AM: Sweig: Cuba litmus test for BO “change” w rest of region/Latin Am. “Substnc of US policy offensive”

9:28:12 AM: Sweig: human rights, democracy engagement w Cuba already happening w EU, Latin Am.

9:29:37 AM: Reinsch: “The biggest benediciary of the embargo has been Castro.”

9:39:10 AM: Lind: “SA a dagger pointed at the heart of Antarctica,” said Kissinger.”New era? Keep working

9:42:51 AM: Omestead: Just back frm Cuba. “Mood on the uplift” re BO. “Great craving for normalcy.” Officials are jaded.

9:53:41 AM: Rothkopf: “It is a bit ridiculous..” With all that’s happening we’re discussing “a tint island.” Focs on “threats 2 WallSt, nt threats f(rom WallSt)”…

9:56:28 AM: Rothkopf: mentions war in Iraq, which is really about Pakistan; Afghan legal rape agnst women and we support them

9:59:32 AM: NOTE: Letter from esteemed military to Obama re: asking him to go further on travel.

10:07:36 AM: Meacham: re State “strategic review” of regional policy, as HRC indicated @ confirm, still waiting.

10:12:53 AM: Wilkerson: “Obama can only show ankle” in so many areas. Cuba no threat

10:18:03 AM: Rothkopf: BO “generally cautious” on all things; within the parameters of promise.

10:22:26 AM: Lind: “US is governed not by logic but by Congress.” O doing so much; right to attack. Domestic policy v foreign.

10:27:10 AM: Rothkopf: Likely have forum in the next few years about nuclear Venezuela.

10:29:39 AM: “Obama still on his first date with planet earth,” said Rothkopf. “Anticipation.”

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World News, Cocktail Edition

By on 03 April 2009

Well, east coasters, if it’s Friday night, it’s Tip O’Neill time; an evening for politics, socializing, drinking, but also anything else that’s on your mind. West coasters will have to catch up on the cocktails a bit later. With an in case you missed it ’round the world brief on the side.

Iran and Venezuela’s new joint bank, from the Islamic Republic News Agency.

Way off our map here, Malawian judge rejects Madonna.

Keira Knightley beaten up by boyfriend in domestic violence ad.

Haredi Jews, the most conservative of the Ultra-Orthodox, continue to ignore women as powerful contributors. They photoshopped out women of the Israeli cabinet.

Turkish film fest is a happening scene.

Watching Saudi Arabia, Minister Prince Nayef has been appointed second deputy prime minister, which is seen as one step closer to becoming the crown prince.

Travel Cuba! In support of the Free to Travel Cuba Act. Aka Sen. Menendez’s very bad week.

Tremendous podcast on COIN (counterinsurgency doctrine), via Abu Muqawama.

Salut! … to the tune of Cannonball Adderley. The rest is up to you.

 
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Chavez is Nervous

By on 16 March 2009

Losing your grip, Mr. President?

President Hugo Chávez ordered the navy on Sunday to seize seaports in states with major petroleum-exporting installations, part of his effort to assert greater control over infrastructure that had come under the dominion of political opponents in regional elections last year.

The move points to a spreading radicalization by Mr. Chávez, as he responds to a slowing economy and the gains made by his opponents. Economic growth slowed in the last quarter to its most sluggish pace in five years, 3.2 percent, weighed down by low oil prices.

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In Our World, and Cato Institute Event

By on 15 March 2009
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Don’t look now, but Nawaz Sharif has been arrested in Pakistan.

It seems fitting that Pakistanis have begun to worry about extremism. While Osama’s popularity softens from around 50% to 34% thinking he will “do the right thing in world affairs:

Overwhelmingly, Pakistanis are worried about the impact of extremism on their country and people, says a new survey conducted by PEW (IRI) global research.

In 2008 72 per cent said they were concerned about Islamic extremism in their country, and over half — 54 per cent — said they were very concerned, the highest per centage among the eight countries on the survey where the question was asked (the others were Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Lebanon, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Turkey). [...]

Meanwhile, “the long march” continues, as does the crackdown in Pakistan, with opposition party leaders and other activists going into hiding to keep from being arrested.

A story floated about Russia, Venezuela and Cuba have the wingnuts spinning Cuban missile crisis theories, because “if” and “could” equals action to jumpy Republicans. Memeorandum has the roundup.

Secretary Clinton to Mexico later this month.

Clinton’s talks in Mexico would cover the global financial crisis, trade and the war against drugs, as well as the explosion of narcotics-related violence, Duguid said.

[...] The State Department last month warned U.S. citizens of the recent surge in violence, particularly near the border, and advised traveling only on main roads during daylight, sticking to well-known tourist spots and avoiding areas frequented by prostitutes or drug dealers.

With due respect to the State Department, there should be an all out travel advisory regarding Mexico that should read like this: You’re thinking about traveling where? Are you nuts?

That brings me to the forum on Friday at the Cato Institute, Can the Pentagon be Fixed? One of the people on the panel was Col. Douglas Macgregor. One specific point Col. Macgregor (retired) made I’ve come to the conclusion is unassailable. The Caribbean basin will likely become an increasing challenge for the U.S., though Macgregor’s assessment is much more dire. He believes firmly that homeland security is more urgent than the troubles we are facing in the Af-Pak region, something that is sobering in the extreme. However, that’s looking forward, because for my money, right now nothing is more urgent than the situation in Pakistan.

Macgregor believes “high impact, low footprint” missions will be more important going forward, because the era of the U.S. being “indispensable is over.” Macgregor: We are not going to garrison the world. The world doesn’t want it and we can’t afford it. That’s as close to a quote as I can get, but you catch the drift.

But it was on the Mexico cartel question from the audience that Macgregor hit on something very rarely covered. It’s not the drug cartels, in his opinion, that are so dangerous. “The transportation structure is enormous,” but also deadly lethal to the United States. The people in charge of the transportation system only want to be paid and they don’t care what they’re transporting. The drug cartels have one product they’re interested in pushing and selling, so they’re focused on it. The transportation structure, vast and unlimited, is different. In Macgregor’s judgment, though he’s not alone, the Coast Guard is vastly underfunded and underequipped, but he also believes the U.S. Navy should have a larger presence in the Caribbean basin.

Oh, and by the way, Macgregor thinks we should be out of Iraq yesterday. Containment worked before and can again. I remember the first time I wrote something along those lines, pushing for this tried form of strategy to be utilized again. I was pilloried with mail. Let’s hope colonels have clout.

But one question from a reporter from Military.com was very interesting: If you had 2 minutes with Robert Gates what would you tell him?

Winslow Wheeler: Tear up the phony stuff like the Levin-McCain legislation. Do what you talked about in your Foreign Affairs article. (–Notes via tweets on Twitter.–)

Col. Macgregor: “Persistent warfare” needs to end; develop containment policies.

Danielle Brian: Stop saying top guy at Raytheon is the right guy. Learn to say no.

Tom Ricks: Ten percent (10%) of new brigadier generals should be people who have been blackballed.

Let me just say that Tom Ricks is priceless. (See my tweets during the forum for more.)

Oh, and as for the F-22, Winslow Wheeler was blunt: “It’s a dog.” Danielle Brian thinks it’s part of a larger test for President Obama. “This is going to be a real test of Obama’s administration” says Danielle Brian, which she’s said before, as a staunch critic of the F-22, but also someone pushing for real change at the Pentagon. If Obama yields to Congress it will be the same old stuff all over again. Taxpayers paying for a military force structure that used to protect us, but in its current form isn’t ready for the 21st century threats we face.

How about we at least test the weapons we purchase before we order dozens of them? …and while we’re at it, Congress needs to quit thinking and saying that defense budget cutting is not supporting the troops. The Pentagon’s bloated budget hides behind that lie.

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Hugo And Vladimir Make A Deal

By on 30 July 2006

guest post by Mash

In the age of terrorism, the international arms bazaar is alive and well. While George W Bush myopically marches forward in his War on Terror, the rest of the world is quietly arming themselves and taking sides. Last week, America\’s "strategic partner" and George W Bush\’s soul mate Vladimir Putin inked a $3 billion arms deal with the always-entertaining Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. Washington protested feebly as Moscow counted the money.

In a multi-year deal, Venezuela will purchase 24 Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets and 53 military helicopters. In addition, Venezuela will begin manufacturing Kalishnakov rifles under license from Russia. There are also reports that Venezuela plans to purchase surface-to-air missiles and a submarine from Russia in the future. This new deal comes on the heels of a deal signed with Russia last year for 100,000 AK-47s and 10 military helicopters. Like the current deal, the previous deal also faced feeble protests from the United States.

Russia isn\’t alone in selling arms to the oil rich South American country. Last year even Spain got in on the act by selling Chavez naval patrol vessels and transport planes for "peaceful purposes". It goes without saying that the United States complained to Spain about the arms sale and was promptly ignored.

The United States has imposed a unilateral arms embargo on Venezuela to try to squeeze Mr. Chavez. Predictably, the arms embargo opened the door to the rest of the world to feast on Venezuela\’s vast oil wealth. Venezuela is purchasing the Russian fighter jets to specifically replace American F-16s that it now possesses. With no spare parts available for the F-16s, it was only a matter of time before Venezuela found a more willing arms pusher.

Enter Vladimir Putin. Since taking office he has increased Russian arms exports by 70%. The revamped Russian arms export business brings much needed revenue into the Russian economy. While the United States busies itself by selling arms to allies in the War on Terror such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan, Vladimir Putin\’s Russia picks up the slack by supplying arms to China, India, Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Sudan, Myanmar and the Palestinians. There is no ethics in the arms business. It is a profit-driven multi-billion dollar industry that has littered the 20th century with the deaths of millions. Now the same stellar record of death and conflict all over the Third World continues unabated in the 21st century. The wars and politics have changed, but the profit motive remains the same.

While each side accuses the other of arming countries that commit human rights abuses, the only sure result is a better-armed world. Russia, for its part, says that by selling arms to some states the United States might consider disreputable, it is violating no international embargoes or laws:



Russia says it abides strictly by international embargoes, and does not engage in trade with banned regimes. But rights groups criticize it for not unilaterally limiting itself.

The International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA) says Russia has sold weapons to states whose forces have committed abuses. "In Russia\’s export control system, there is virtually no reference to controlling arms exports for reasons connected with respect for international human rights and humanitarian law," the network of agencies said in a June briefing paper.

While the United States obsesses over the threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction, it is the proliferation of small arms in the Third World that poses the greatest threat to the average citizen of the world. Not surprisingly, the Bush Administration opposes any treaty banning the trade in small arms because it may weaken its stance on the Second Amendment.

By itself, the Venezuelan arms deal does not pose an immediate national security risk to the United States. However, it does pose a long-term challenge to the stability of the region as Venezuela modernizes its armed forces and sets up its own arms manufacturing capability. Inevitably, if left unchecked, Venezuela will become an exporter of arms to other countries in the region. Given Chavez\’s well-known distaste for the Bush Administration, the possibility of miscalculation exists both in Caracas and in Washington. Furthermore, with characters like Otto Reich and Elliot Abrams in the Bush Administration, any apparent provocation from Venezuela might trigger a neo-con fantasy war in South America. Having failed in 2002 to overthrow Chavez, the neo-cons in the Bush Administration would love to get another crack at him.

Now is the time for tough and nuanced diplomacy with Venezuela to diffuse what could become, without active diplomacy, a serious national security issue for the United States. However, I am not optimistic that the Bush Administration is capable of preemptive diplomacy. Its Doctrine of Preemption is strictly military. The irony of course is that by following its doctrine, the Bush Administration ignores the very diplomacy that would have prevented the need for preemptive war. Having proved its value in the Middle East, the Bush Administration is likely to bring its failed Doctrine to South America.

Here\’s to hoping that time runs out on this Administration before a regional concern turns into a regional war.

 

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