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Taylor Marsh has been writing on line since 1996, with the archives provided here a representation of that work.

Tag Archives | voting

Obama Stays Away from Maine

DNC update below

The whole country is watching Maine.

Except Obama for America, at least not in the way that matters.

From John Aravosis:

Joe wrote last night about how the DNC’s “Organizing for America” organization (formerly known as “Obama for America”) emailed Maine voters yesterday about today’s election, but failed to mention the anti-gay ballot measure that is the number one issue in the state right now.

Today things got worse. We just received a copy of an email message that OFA sent to Maine voters yesterday asking them to get involved in…. New Jersey! …

John’s also got a copy of the email that OfA sent out.

But really, Pres. Obama doesn’t need the gay community’s votes right now. He’s focused on Olympia.


UPDATE: As far as I can tell, there seems to have been a snafu of some sort, which resulted in a small number of Mainers receiving the email Aravosis posted. I reached out to a DNC official for clarification and here’s what he said: “There may have been some Mainers who inadvertently got the email, but it was not sent to our Maine list.”

This post has been slightly edited.

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Election Tuesday Eve: Palin Hits VA with Ralph Reed

updated

Tom Davis, a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, said he still believes the race is a tossup but also expected Scozzafava supporters to swing toward Owens. “This is not a Sarah Palin district, and they tried to make it that way. In a three-way race, you could have gotten 35 to 40 percent to win the seat, and now they need close to 50 percent,” Davis said. “It’s clear in the Watertown part of the district that Hoffman is not the second choice.” – Winning Dede Scozzafava: How Democrats got her nod

Tom Davis may have to eat that one. Meanwhile…

“Vote your values,” Virginia, this has been brought to you by Sarah Palin, who is now in a little skirmish with Joe Biden. Via Sarah’s Facebook page: “There’s one way to tell Vice President Biden that we’re tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation’s progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!”

The Hill has the story behind what prompted Sarah’s retort.

Wingnut radio was on steroids today (and that’s before Sean Hannity’s mini-me Mark Levine gets his chance tonight ). Hannity had both Hoffman and Christie on, making sure to stir up trouble in the New Jersey race, as he falsely served up the possibility of Corzine illegalities, without any proof whatsoever, then used ACORN as a warning of what else might happen.

As for Virginia, Bob McDonnell won’t claim Sarah Palin, as she teams up with Ralph Reed, who is on his comeback tour after skulking off the political scene in disgrace. Palin has done a robocall for McDonnell, Via ABC. This is truly hilarious:

Republican Bob McDonnell kept his distance from Sarah Palin on Monday even as the former Alaska governor had begun making automated phone calls to more than 300,000 Virginia households on behalf of a conservative group, urging them to vote their values in Tuesday’s election.

“I don’t know anything about them,” McDonnell told ABC News on Monday when asked about the Palin robocalls which are paid for by the Virginia chapter of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, a socially conservative group headed at the national level by Ralph Reed, the former head of the Christian Coalition.

Democrats are actually going lose to this guy. I’m sure they’ll blame Obama, but this one is on the Virginia Democratic party and Creigh Deeds. Meanwhile, a lot of people will likely vote for Democrats down ticket, but leave Deeds empty as a protest. Who can blame them? It’s better than not voting at all, because there are other names on the ballot deserving.

Republicans are expecting wins in NY-23 and Virginia, while hoping for New Jersey, too. It would be very sweet if Scozzafava’s supporters tipped it towards Owens, though in the end I don’t care, as Owens, as far as I can tell, would be just another Blue Dog Dem. However, with polls showing Hoffman up 5 points and wingnut radio going to bat all day for him, it’s unlikely. To add, Mike Murphy tweets what really happened to NBC’s Chuck Todd:

@chucktodd all that really happened in NY23 was that a voters forced primary and Dede lost. She was the paper creation of 11 county chairs.

Tomorrow will kick off a year-long election cycle for 2010, which is already in full swing on your radio dial. The biggest GOTV rallying cry in American media today, led now by Glenn Beck far more than Rush Limbaugh. See Hoffman in NY-23 if you don’t believe me.

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What will be the two top issues in 2010?

bumped

nationaljournal_1

That was the question asked by the National Journal in its weekly new media poll, getting answers from the left and right. Both lefties and righties agreed that it would be the economy: left by 93.8%; right by 82.4%. From there partisan opinion diverged.

I was the only one who weighed in by adding another choice than what the good people at the National Journal gave us in the survey. My second choice was GOTV, because as you’ll see next week from the vote in Virginia, but maybe even New Jersey, Democrats are in real trouble on the enthusiasm meter. Here was my response, adding a category all my own, “Volunteered”:

Economy, GOTV

“The biggest issue for Dems will be turnout, with the right revved up and ready to rumble. I’d go for this combo: economy/GOTV. The bailout blues is far more widespread than Democrats acknowledge. It will fuel the right in 2010. Jobs is an issue building for 2012, as the Obama administration hasn’t had the subject in its narrative at all, mostly due to the desperate financial situation and its reverberations.” Taylor Marsh

Thanks to the National Journal for allowing me to be creative on this one. I’m not very good at political analysis within constructed lines, as the answer usually lies beyond.

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Under the Radar

Interesting development in Coleman v. Franken:

The former finance chief of a Texas company controlled by Nasser Kazeminy, a close friend of former Sen. Norm Coleman, said in a deposition last week that Kazeminy ordered $100,000 in fees be paid to a Minneapolis insurance agency where Coleman’s wife was employed.

B.J. Thomas, who was chief financial officer of Deep Marine Technology Inc., said that $75,000 of that sum was paid to Hays Companies even though he saw no evidence of Deep Marine receiving any consulting services from Hays. [...]

Looking through some of the comments the one below is a favorite:

How does a model/actress get hired as an insurance consultant?

I work in insurance. A very valid point has been made on this website – what qualified Mrs Coleman to be a highly paid consultant in a specialized field such as this? You can’t just walk in off the street and pick it up in an afternoon! That alone elevates the highly suspicious nature of this transaction.
posted by hcmn76 on Mar 27, 09 at 9:29 am |

Any other news item “off the radar” that you’re following?

TM NOTE: A heads up. After a call on Afghanistan this morning (analysis of Obama’s Afghan plan coming in a post for Sunday), I’ll be at a lecture by Karen J. Greenberg, the author of The Least Worst Place: Guantanamo’s First 100 Days. Check my Twitter feed if you’re interested.

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Judd Gregg Withdraws Name

–updated–

CNN broke the news not long ago.

Commerce is becoming the black hole. Gregg was a horrible choice, in my opinion, which was telegraphed when the Obama team pulled the census from his purview. From Cilizza:

“It has become apparent during this process that this will not work for me as I have found that on issues such as the stimulus package and the census there are irresolvable conflicts for me,” Gregg said in a statement to be released by his office. “Prior to accepting this post, we had discussed these and other potential differences, but unfortunately we did not adequately focus on these concerns.”

UPDATE: Gibbs statement, in case you haven’t seen it. Shorter: Don’t look at us; he wanted the gig.

“Senator Gregg reached out to the President and offered his name for Secretary of Commerce. He was very clear throughout the interviewing process that despite past disagreements about policies, he would support, embrace, and move forward with the President’s agenda. Once it became clear after his nomination that Senator Gregg was not going to be supporting some of President Obama’s key economic priorities, it became necessary for Senator Gregg and the Obama administration to part ways. We regret that he has had a change of heart”. – Robert Gibbs

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Israeli Election: 61 Votes Hard to Reach

Okay, so I just got near a computer after traveling today and this is the latest so far on early Israeli election results.

With 61 votes needed to form a government, it looks like Tzipi Livni (Kadima), and Bibi Netanyahu (Likud) will have to learn to work together.

Haaretz on early results:

The Central Elections Committee said Wednesday that with 27 percent of votes counted, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s Kadima Party is narrowly in first place with 27 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party following closely behind with 26 seats. …

AP over at Yahoo has a classic headline: Netanyahu declares victory in Israeli elections. The first line of the article is more on point. Too close to call.

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O-Biden Looking Forward

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cSo1ZgQtMo&eurl

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ospQeSnsc8E&eurl

Barack Obama is the first president-elect since Ike to take a train to Washington. He picked up Joe Biden in Delaware.

In the background is Obama’s “Organizing for America,” which builds on Barack Obama’s campaign colossus. He announced it today.

So in case you didn’t get the message, the election for 2012 has begun and the future President Obama is not taking anything for granted. He’s going to beat the Republicans before they even anoint the new RNC chair. Permanent campaign? Maybe, but O-Biden doesn’t intend to have only one term if they can help it. Mainly because with all the challenges in front of them it will take two terms to get the job done.

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Cooled on Kennedy


It’s almost official. After soaring in yesterday’s hearing, there is a party for HRC tonight. Tomorrow the vote. Then it will be time for her to resign her Senate seat, right about the time New Yorkers seem to have cooled on Kennedy.

New York State voters have cooled on Caroline Kennedy and more voters now prefer State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 31 – 24 percent for Hillary Clinton’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney gets 6 percent, with 5 percent for U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, 2 percent for U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, 18 percent for someone else and 14 percent undecided.

Still, voters say 38 – 33 percent that Gov. David Paterson will appoint Ms. Kennedy to the U.S. Senate.

This is a bit personal for both sides, even without the marriage split between Cuomo and Kennedy’s cousin Kerry. The dish on that divorce filled New York columns.

It won’t be long now.

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Condoleezza Rice Bedeviled by Bush Again

Banning Arab parties in the upcoming election? Stunning. …and incredibly stupid. The good news is that it actually makes Olmert’s move on Bush against Condoleezza Rice almost recede from view. Almost. But it sure reminds you of the serial failures Rice has suffered under a president that never seems willing to let her do her job, whatever that may be at the time.

Though I’m no fan of Condi, mainly because she’s proven woefully incompetent in her positions, particularly as national security advisor, she’s trying to get a ceasefire agreement pushed through at the UN Security Council. But on a phone call from Olmert, George W. Bush made Rice abstain from voting on the measure, the only one on the U.N. Security Council not voting in favor of the ceasefire. The Israeli leader gloated in typical machismo satisfaction, revealing why so many detest Israeli leaders during military actions. Their rhetoric is insulting to the United States, making the U.S. presidency look like nothing more than a mere patsy for Israeli action.

“She was left shamed. A resolution that she prepared and arranged, and in the end she did not vote in favour,” Olmert said in a speech in the southern town of Ashkelon.

[...] “I said ‘get me President Bush on the phone’. They said he was in the middle of giving a speech in Philadelphia. I said I didn’t care. ‘I need to talk to him now’. He got off the podium and spoke to me.

“I told him the United States could not vote in favour. It cannot vote in favour of such a resolution. He immediately called the secretary of state and told her not to vote in favour.”

This is exactly the type of foreign policy from which Obama needs to stay an ocean away. The interlocking of Israeli – American policy regarding the former’s escalating military actions against Palestinians has caused our country a lot of grief. Obama needs to separate Israeli – American policy in the Middle East, though there is no evidence that is what will happen. But independence and friendship are not mutually exclusive, and Obama through Clinton needs to send that message upon arrival.

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Reid’s ‘Leadership’ Role


The headline at Politico should come with a laugh track: Reid vows to lead till at least 2015. It depends on what your definition of “lead” is.

After drawing a line in the sand on Burris. Harry Reid then not only rubbed it out, but walked across it. On top of that, after a speech advising Norm Coleman to concede, Reid caved to Republicans, agreeing not to seat Al Franken, even though he’s been certified the winner in Minnesota.

We used to have leaders like Lyndon Johnson. Now we’ve got Harry Reid. Someone needs to tell Reid we actually won in November. He’s reacting like a loser.

Let me also add that the idea to block Burris in the first place included Barack Obama, who weighed in strongly. It would be naive to think that Reid’s collapse wasn’t inspired by Obama’s desire to get this nightmare off the TV screens. Outplayed on all fronts on this one.

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Senate Circus

Well, Burris has been turned away. Legally, except for Lawrence Tribe, most experts believe Burris will win this in the end. Who knows, but Senate Democrats look like idiots.

On another plain, in another state, Caroline Kennedy has fallen from grace, at least in popularity among New Yorkers. From PPP:

When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy.

However, the only New Yorker that matters on this one is Gov. Paterson.

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Burris Appointment Rejected; Coleman on Empty

Secretary of the Senate rejects Burris appointment.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, Norm Coleman just ran out of options.

So, if you want to see an example of learning from Gore 2000, but also Kerry in Ohio 2004, see Al never give up the fight Franken. What a brawl he delivered. The Wall Street Journal provides the sound effects. Waaaaaah.

UPDATE: Coleman’s statement on state Supreme Court ruling.

“Given our campaign’s unwavering commitment to ensuring that the vote of no Minnesotan is disenfranchised, today’s ruling by the Minnesota Supreme Court is both disappointing and disheartening. The fact that the Franken campaign now rejects the notion of every valid vote being counted so they can attempt to declare victory on the basis of a broken process, and an artificial lead built on double counting of votes should concern all Minnesotans. Today’s ruling, which effectively disregards the votes of hundreds of Minnesotans, ensures that an election contest is now inevitable. The Coleman campaign has consistently and continually fought to have every validly cast vote counted, and for the integrity of Minnesota’s election system, we will not stop now. The Minnesota Supreme Court has made sure that an election contest will need to be filed quickly in order to ensure that an accurate and valid recount can be achieved.”

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Courting the Women’s Vote

But this isn't just about courting the women's vote. It's also about those
21 million women who remain unregistered non-voters. It's the key to a Democratic
win every time, but also critical to winning the presidency and holding both houses of
Congress.

So it's about time there was an article out there with this kind of headline:
Clinton
courting non-voters
. That its focus is candidate Clinton doesn't
surprise me at all.

Obviously, the other candidates are working to get the women's
vote too. But let's be honest. No candidate has the the potential to move more
women than Clinton, for very obvious reasons. But Clinton also knows nothing could move
the election more than if she could tap into the 21 million unregistered female voters
that Democrats have not captured in years and years.


Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton includes a biographical section on her campaign
Web site titled “Mother and Advocate.” On the issues she is called
“A Champion for Women.” She also has a calculator for women to enter
their age, race, education level and home state to learn how much money they
are losing for want of an equal-pay law.

Those are but a few of the campaign's small tips of the hat to women, the
largest segment of the electorate and a crucial component of Clinton's strategy
to win the Democratic nomination and the presidency. “A big piece of
what we're working on is finding ways to reach women,” said Ann Lewis,
a senior adviser to the campaign.

But in addition to targeting women voters, her campaign is going after a
far more elusive goal: women who have not even registered to vote. Surveys
show the former first lady far outstrips her rivals among registered women
voters, but also among unregistered women, a substantial target that includes
21 million people under the age of 44. … ..

Clinton
courting non-voters

The N.Y. Democrat's presidential campaign is going after a far more elusive
goal than female voters: Women who have not even registered, a target that
includes 21 million under age 44

Kudos to Clinton. There is nothing more important than getting these 21
million women to vote.

I've done significant research on independent female non-voters over many,
many years. One more recent project started out of Firedoglake, which I ran
for Jane Hamsher (with help from Pach and some FDL volunteers), but then I got
into it and ran with it on my own. I've learned a lot about the basics on why
independent single women don't vote.

Of course, Page Gardner and Anna Greenberg and the others at Women’s
Voices Women’s Votes,
a non-partisan, non-profit group, are the experts
on this stuff. They were incredible help. WVWV has pages and pages of invaluable research. Through conference calls and their
website, which provided source material and facts, among other
sources, I was able to put the basics together that is a jumping off point for
anyone who has never thought about the challenge of tapping those 21 million
independent single women (ISW) non-voters.

Oh, and just a word about the term “independent single women,” which
I use throughout the information below. The term most frequently used has always
been “unmarried single women.” When I began working with the FDL volunteers
and Pach there was a lot of talk about how to refer to these women. I have always
had a big problem with the old term, “unmarried single women.” As
if single women should only be referred to as “unmarried,” which in
itself connotes something negative and also “un” about a woman's life if she's not married. Some women actually happily choose to remain
“unmarried.” In the modern era women actually choose to remain independent and single.
I should know, because I was one of those “unmarried” women until
four years ago. So I decided on “independent single women” as having
just about the right tone. It includes unmarried women, divorced women, single
moms and everything in between, including all ages.

This is just a beginning, but it puts the obvious and the not so obvious together.
I don't claim to be an expert like the people over at WVWV,
but I am fully studied and equipped to dissect some of the problems, though
there are many more issues to address than what I've compiled below. Again,
this is just a jumping off point (formal pdf version of the info not included below), but it's invaluable information for those
people in the political world who have never given this subject a second thought.
Believe it or not there are a lot of those types of people out there even today.


REACHING UNREGISTERED INDEPENDENT SINGLE WOMEN VOTERS
PART ONE:

Title: Independent Women Staying Informed

Many independent single women (ISW) say they don’t have enough information
to get involved or to be sure about the issues.

Independent, single women (ISW) often don’t seek out this information.

ISW receive their information passively from local news and local papers,
but they rarely go to news for political information.

Younger independent, single women use the web to get their news.

PART TWO:

Title: Reaching Independent Single Women Through Media

Independent, single women (ISW) are cynical about the media.

Non-partisan organizations are seen as more trustworthy and unbiased because
they are simply dispensing information not cheerleading for one side or the
other.

Highly partisan material is a turn off for ISW.

Any candidate information should present both people’s views.

Offering sources and web links to check information being given is seen as
crucial to ISW. Again, they are cynical about the media and don’t automatically
trust what they are being told.

PART THREE

Title: GOTWV Design has an Impact

How voting information is presented matters to ISW.

Women in all materials must look like average women and not super models.
This goes for single mom images too. Multi-tasking images also rings true
to women.

ISW are as moved by patriotic images as anyone else.

Images in voter information should be emotional and bring patriotic feelings
to the surface. Duty calls: vote.

PART FOUR

Title: Reach ISW with Words

The word “guide” is likely to be effective on voter information
covers, according to WVWV studies.

Women’s Voices, Women’s Vote found that “guide” inspires
women to look inside voter pamphlets to find out more information on the candidates
or initiatives.

ISW want to have information so they can make their own choices and decisions.

When using wording it’s important to impart the voting is powerful.

ISW are smart, so you don’t have to hit them over the head with messaging.

PART FIVE

Title: Sloganeering

WVWV offers some guidelines…

“You can’t change America if you don’t vote.”
“Make a change, make a difference, go vote.”
“Your voice matters, your vote makes them listen.”
“Make a choice. Make a difference. Vote.”
“Voting has never been more important.”
“Don’t let someone else make the choice for you. Vote.”

Slogans for single women regarding the duty to their children and the world
they will lead their children could also be effective. As WVWV
research has shown, independent single women are as moved by patriotic slogans
as anyone. That's why the slogans above work. They move through emotion, which
is the most powerful incentive.

PART SIX

Title: Reaching ISW Through Technology

Websites with voter registration links.

Websites with candidate links that offer both Rep. & Dem.

Blogs that post information about candidates vying for office offering contrasts
of records or viewpoints. Again, both views of candidates must be shown. ISW
want to make their own decisions.

Text messaging angles: On Dem mailers provide text message alerts to get
emails. ISW receiving these door knockers may be more likely to respond with
email addresses.

On Election Day, remind ISW it’s time to vote through text messaging.

They’re interested but very busy women. Reaching out could make the
difference.

PART SEVEN

Title: Helping Single Mothers Vote

Provide names of childcare opportunities in neighborhoods and cities.

Recruiting childcare businesses to help on Election Day. It’s good
advertising and a positive contribution to the community.

PART EIGHT

Title: Transportation to the Polls

Provide information re: local transportation to polls.

Hotline transportation

Help women find where their voting place is.

PART NINE

Title: ID Alert

ISW need to be educated about having an ID with them to vote.

Know your rights: If you do not have an ID you can sign an Affirmation of
Identity form stating that you are who you claim you are. You must then be
allowed to vote like everyone else.

If you are not on the lists you have a legal right to a provisional ballot.

Provide phone number to local Dem office if problems arise.

PART TEN

Title: Where Women Hang Out

Before election set up GOTWV booths to register women at bookstores.

Before election set up tables to hand out information on voting.

PART ELEVEN

Title: Negative Ads and ISW

ISW are cynical about the media so negative ads may work for many people
but they likely turn off ISW.

They have the potential of driving turn out of ISW down.

When negative ads rule, other ways of reaching ISW are critical. Remember,
one-sided ads don’t reach ISW. They want both sides so they can make
their own decision, their own choices.

Democrats have got to find a way to reach ISW when negative ads are the norm
on airwaves.

Negative ads could cause ISW to tune out.

PART TWELVE

Title: Don’t Be Intimidated – Voter Suppression

You are the voter, so you have the power.

Look out for off duty police officers intimidating voters, especially in
minority zones, as well as police vehicles.

If the polling place is open and you are registered to vote, you have an
inalienable right to do so.

If the machines are down, officials are obligated to provide a paper ballot.

If you are in line by the time polls close, even if the line is halfway down
the street, officials are obligated to let you vote.

Any irregularities should be reported immediately. There is always a national
hotline.

Make sure local legal number is available so women can report intimidation,
for instance: 1-888-DEM-VOTE, which was used in 2006.

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