John McCain v. Barack Obama

The general election has begun.

Open thread.

Dear Sam Stein and Huffington Post

We have a no profanity rule around here, but this one is so outrageous that it inspires me to break my own rules. My apologies to the faint-hearted. - TM

I in no way have anything whatsoever to do with the narrative being pushed in Sam Stein's post over at Huffington Post. Stop.

Whatever my readers are doing is their business. I am in no way involved. Stop.

Ms Marsh, I believe I may have been the SD emailer who got your name envolved (sic). I emailed last night using addresses on the blog. I wrote my email myself and receieved many snotty replies that stunned me. I stopped emailing but received a second email from Sam Stein (Huffington). He asked if I was working WITH the Clinton campaign to contact SD's. I was worried that if I did not answer it would reflect bad on Hillary so I told him I was among lots of bloggers on Taylor Marsh and that we were doing the emails out of enthusiasm for Hillary. I can send you all this by email if you want it. At any rate I am sorry if this effected your credibility, I didn't mean that, I just didn't want to hurt Hillary. I thought I should tell you this so you can decide if you think I was the cause of this mess and so you could handle it as you think best. ... Sincerely, Shirley Luther via email

Mr. Stein would have found this out if he'd bothered to contact me for comment, which he did not. Obviously, his agenda was more important than reporting the full story, the facts and the truth. Quite frankly, I had more respect for Arianna than this and am saddened the Huffington Post has stooped to this level of nonsense.

That Mr. Stein contacted the Clinton campaign for comment, but no one bothered to contact me is typical these days. It's further proof that many do not care what happens after the nominee is selected. Never mind that Sam's narrative and the Huffington Post blasting it, without the full story, will make everyone's job even harder and the possibility of coming together in any meaningful manner more difficult. It also infers quite a different role for me, which is in no way connected to my readers' goal.

But to be clear, as I've said in my latest posts on the subject, here and here, I'm not involved in any campaign to write or "threaten" superdelegates, or in pushing a vote for John McCain. Sam Stein seems not to care, which has brought an onslaught of angry emails to my inbox, which I'm used to, and never mind that Same Stein and Huffington Post totally misrepresent my part in it all by giving a false impression that I'm involved. Again, I am not.

If Sam or the Huffington Post cared about the truth, or about trying to bring Democrats together eventually, as well as Clinton supporters in to fight against a McCain presidency, someone over there would have given me the courtesy of an email. Instead, they offered this drivel, without any comment from me:

The Clinton campaign did not return a request for comment as to whether it was behind the email campaign. One author said that she was responding not to the senator's staff, but to commenters on the blog of Taylor Marsh, a committed supporter of the New York Democrat whose readers had gotten a hold of a list of email addresses. It was a 'spur of the moment' idea brought about by a blog (Taylor Marsh)," explained Shirley Luther, a Texas Democrat who threatened to vote for McCain should Obama be the nominee. "Tonight several of our bloggers came up with the idea of writing the super delegates. Someone on the blog found a list of emails and posted it.... Everything I wrote is the truth about my political background. The exit polls show I am not alone in refusing to vote for Obama and opting to McCain. This probably would not be possible if there was any other Republican running. But there are a lot of moderate Democrats who do respect his service." ... .. Clinton Supporters Send Last-Ditch Obama Attack Emails To Supers

When someone states that a campaign to target superdelegates was a "'spur of the moment' idea brought about by a blog (Taylor Marsh)," I don't think it's too much to ask if Sam Stein, the author of the post where this is quoted, actually reach out to get my take on what some Texas Democrat is saying. "Brought about by a blog (Taylor Marsh)" implies my blog is involved. It may be, but only to the extent that it's commenters who are engaging in this action, which is their right, by the way. However, again, I am not.

Sam Stein and the Huffington Post should amend this post immediately to include my denial on the subject. We'll see if that happens.

Again, I am in no way involved in this "last-ditch obama attack emails to supers" campaign.

I do, however, remain a proud supporter of Hillary Clinton. Harry Truman would never desert his friends. Hillary Clinton is still in this race and until she gets out or Obama gets the requisite number to capture the nomination, which he hasn't done yet, I've got her back. I come from the tenacity wing of the Democratic party. If we had more members we wouldn't lose so many national elections.

Sam Stein's post further illustrates the ignorance in alienating Clinton supporters to the point that Obama can never bring them in. We already know that blue-collar workers are not important to them and that they think they can win the general without them, or I should say us. But alienating the biggest sole proprietor blogger supporting Hillary Clinton on the web is not a good way to try to bridge the divide Democrats are currently experiencing. It's a huge mistake. To say that Sam and the Huffington Post just made my job to do so more difficult is an understatement.

So one more time with feeling and for the dense, singling out Sam Stein over at the Huffington Post in particular, as well as the people in charge who allowed his irresponsible nonsense to be posted without a comment from me, or at least the evidence of some effort on his part to get a comment. If Obama is the nominee, which is quite possible at this point, I simply cannot go from making the case against him, which is very strong, to making the case for him. His supporters and fans will have to do that. But I want no part of enabling another foreign policy, military or national security disaster, which is where I base my vote. So, I will do everything in my power to make the case against John McCain.

To repeat, I'm an American first, a Democrat second. Clinton is the only candidate I believe in. But this country cannot withstand a McCain presidency. That's the bottom line. All against McCain it will be.

UPDATE II: "[Added Later]:" has now been added before the appended text, which you can find below.

UPDATE: I have called Colin, my contact at Huffington Post, someone who has always been gracious and helpful to me, to express my complete and utter dissatisfaction with Sam's post. Soon after I got a request for my phone number, then a call from Sam Stein. Frankly, he was a little at a loss for words, except to make excuses. He did, however, take a moment to express his appreciation for the graphic above. I informed him that he would never have behaved this way to any of the male bloggers in his pack, which I believe is absolutely true. He continued to offer excuses, that it was a commenter, that he did try to reach the Clinton camp, etc. But you invoked my blog in a way to infer I might be involved, plus quoted one of my commenters, but didn't contact me? I asked. He admitted he maybe should have and then said they would append the post. He said he called to see if I wanted to say anything else or to blast him. I told him that since he didn't have the respect for me to contact me in the first place, I had no intention of talking further to him. He interrupted me several times saying we can have a conversation on this. I said we could have if he'd had the courtesy to contact me at the start, then said the conversation was over. I was curt. I wasn't in the mood to hear some excuse why he didn't do his job in the first place, especially since he was not owning up to his mistake like a professional. BUT GET THIS... Sam did indeed append his post. BUT, he slipped in the appended text WITHOUT NOTATION, like it was present from the start. Hacktacular in the extreme. Here's the appended text, which Sam slid in so that no one would know it wasn't there from the start, including that there was ever a dispute to begin with. Unbelievable. No, strike that. Very believable at this point.

Taylor Marsh denied any involvement in the affair, saying her readers and commenters were responsible for their own actions.

Clueless Obamabots Get It Wrong Again

BY TAYLOR MARSH

Another adventure in Welcome to My World...

Subject: anti-Obana e-mail to Superdelegates Message: The campaign to threaten superdelagates with your switching to vote for McCain if Hillary Clinton doesn't get the nomination is utterly despicable, and totally devisive and destructive. Such tactics are hateful and silly. Do you actually want to see McCain elected and then see Roe V Wade overturned by his next Supreme Court appointment? do you think McCain would be a better president to get the USA out of Iraq ? Really I was sickened by news of the e-mail campaign launched yesterday by you and other bloggers, to discredit Obama and make a last ditch effort to get your favorite Democrat as the nominee of the party. She is losing that battle, Obama will be the nominee, and your tactics are very Rovian. Shame on you and the bloggers who did this ugly action. Mary Jo Cannarella (via email, verbatim, as written)

Another one:

Subject: Super Delegates Threats Message: Ms. Marsh, I am a white 50+, middle income female. I read how you now have Hillary supporters sending threateining letters to Super Delagates. This is hameful and disgusting. This action sets back feminism by 20 years. By stomping your feet, holding your breath, and being a bully is not like women of my age group worked so hard to attain for women. This negativity is useless, and shows women to be less than they truly are, strong in their beliefs, but gracious in loss. I too would have liked to have a female president, however, there was no way that I would have EVER voted for Hillary. She is not a role model for young women, but the worst type of hypocrite. This temper tantrum will only divide they party. You and your followers do not want ot be responsible for the potential overthrow of Roe v. Wade, or much more Civil Rights that the Republicans have tried to destroy. Rather than compounding this, show some class, and encourage your readers and listeners to stay with the Democratic Party. It is not about the candidates, but it is what is best for the party. I would appreciate an answer to this note. It will be interesting how your try to justify this behavior. Susan (via email, verbatim, as written)

Now I'll post my response, which has been cut and pasted into several emails, because these people are so clueless as to be beyond hope. Maybe this will stop their emails? I doubt it.

First, I was at 39,000 feet yesterday, coming back from Washington, D.C. Secondly, do you have any proof that I'm personally involved in this campaign? No, I didn't think so. Thirdly, have you read what I wrote recently? Again, no, I didn't think so. http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=27622 Hey, but that never stopped Obamabots from attacking me before, so I doubt it will now. Facts nor truth have anything to do with your unhinged harangues. Best, Taylor

Clear enough for you? Again, I doubt it.

The right to vote your conscience is a sacred thing to me. I didn't lobby my big brother for his vote. I won't lobby superdelegates for theirs, though sending emails to them making the case for Clinton is certainly something people can and should do if they feel strongly; the same goes for Obama supporters, all of which can be done without "threats." It's also why I respect, though adamantly disagree, with people who say in the comments and emails that they will not support the Democratic party if Obama is the nominee. It's why I'm considering, though I haven't made a final decision, having a guest post author dedicated to offering that side of the Democratic voting block, who will not support the Democratic ticket if Obama is the nominee.

I have made the case for Clinton every day on this blog for months and month and will continue to do so until the nominee is chosen. News flash to Obamabots like Susan and Mary Jo Cannarella, though they've got lots of company: Obama doesn't have the magic number yet. He's not the nominee yet. Clinton's still in the race until someone gets that magic number. It's called democracy.

Once Barack Obama has the requisite delegate total to make him the nominee, or Clinton pulls off a miracle, despite the stone wall being erected against her, I will support the Democratic party.

More specifically, if Clinton is the nominee I will enthusiastically make the case for her. If Obama is the nominee, which is quite possible at this point, I simply cannot go from making the case against him, which is very strong, to making the case for him. His fans will have to do that, because it will take a very long time and a lot more evidence than I've seen to date for me to ever change my opinion of Senator Obama. I do not believe he is a strong Democrat or a strong progressive, and he's certainly not "the most liberal member of the Senate," which is a laugh out loud label to put on him.

Senator Obama has no ideological compass whatsoever. That's just one of his many problems. That said, any Democrat is better than what Cranky McSame has to offer. On foreign policy, national security and military strategy, which is the largest part of my vote, John McCain presents many deal breakers for me, not the least of which is that in Iraq he's still trying to get even for Vietnam. Having lived through our debacle in Southeast Asia, which is one reason I advocated loudly against a preemptive war in Iraq (including on a.m. radio), I want no part of enabling another further disaster in the Middle East. So, I will do everything in my power to make the case against John McCain.

To repeat, I'm an American first, a Democrat second. Clinton is the only candidate I believe in. But this country cannot withstand a McCain presidency. That's the bottom line. All against McCain it will be.

I appreciate your commitment to beating john mccain in the fall, and I understand that you are annoyed by the emails you get insinuating otherwise (and other shenanigans pulled by obama supporters around here) but do you think it's helpful or at all accurate to caricature all obama supporters? At least half the democrats in this country support him. You think we are all obamabots, set on voter intimidation, sexism, and general violence against democratic ideals? Thanks, ben

My response to him:

Hi Ben. Until I get evidence to the contrary, my answer is a very loud and unequivocal, YES. Best, TM

It's the franchise, stupid!

guest post by HLF

In a democracy, nothing matters more than the right to vote, and for one’s vote to count meaningfully.

The right to vote, to be represented meaningfully, to have political voice literally birthed the United States of America. Remember: the colonist’s original grievance against England was that they lacked representation in the British Parliament, yet the British Parliament was ruling the colonies with an iron hand.

Apparently, the current Democratic National Party either does not remember this fact or cannot understand the significance of a meaningful franchise. The D.N.C., under the auspices of Dr. Dean and the sway of Senator Obama, will not seat the voters of Michigan and Florida commensurate with the way the people in those states voted in their primaries.

At this point, this refusal has nothing to do with penalizing Michigan and Florida for breaking Party rules. Democrats in both states were willing to bear the burden of revoting and Senator Clinton’s supporters have been willing to bear the costs, all in the name of the franchise.

The American colonists were not the last to fight for the franchise in our country. The franchise created by our founders did not extend to all adult citizens. So, many more Americans, of all races and both genders, fought to make sure that every adult in the country has a federally guaranteed right to vote in state and federal elections. African American men gained a Constitutional guarantee of this right in 1870 with the passage of the 15th Amendment of the to the U.S. Constitution.

The Fifteenth Amendment {At the time of passage, citizens = men} Section. 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude. Section. 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Not until fifty years later did women (of any and all) races gain the same Constitutional guarantee. In 1920, the 19th Amendment passed. (That same year the League of Women Voters came into being.)

The Nineteenth Amendment Section 1: The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex. Section 2: Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Interestingly, the State of Kentucky brought the Amendment past the two-thirds threshold required for the passage of a Constitutional Amendment

Pay attention to Section 2 of these Amendments.

Constitutional guarantees are one thing, actual enfranchisement another. As students of civil rights in this country know full well the battle for meaningful voting rights in this country for goes on. Congress passed legislation in 1957, 1960, and 1964 that contained voting-related provisions, meant to give teeth to guarantees of the franchise. But it took until 1965, and the passage of the original Voting Righting Act, to give real voice to the disenfranchised.

The Democratic National Party has about three weeks – not decades – to afford meaningful franchise to the voters of Michigan and Florida

The Democrats will have 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention, if Michigan and Florida are excluded. Without those two states, the eventual Democratic nominee will need 2,025 delegates. If those states’ delegations are ultimately seated, then a candidate will need 2,209 delegates to secure the nomination. Without revotes, the only meaningful way to protect the D.N.C. franchise of the voters of Michigan and Florida primary voters is to award Senator Clinton all the votes cast for her, and only those cast specifically to Senator Obama to him. Apparently the D.N.C. does not get this.

Terry McAuliffe on the latest plan for seating Michigan:

“I think we ought to get all the delegates. [Obama] took his name off the ballot, deliberately, politically; it’s a political decision which he made, which is fine, but they are going to give him all the uncommitted, I guess, John Edwards’ and everyone else’s.”

The Democratic National Party, like the Republican National Party, is not the creation of the federal government. But they certainly play a major role in determining the make-up and nature of that government. If the U.S. Congress was able to admit that it needed to redress the shortcomings of its original efforts to guarantee the franchise to black men and to all women, how can the Democratic National Party do less for the voters of Michigan and Florida? Are those voters the new women and black men of the D.N.C, to be deprived of the voice they expressed when they went to the voting booths and cast their ballots?

Votes – the Peacekeepers of Democracy

There is more than one way to take control of a political outcome. Backroom deals, military coups, war. But what makes a democracy operate according to the rule of law, rather than the reign of terror, is robust recognition of every voter who pulls a lever or presses a button or submits a paper ballot indicating his or her choice. The Democratic National Party should certainly not be less sensitive to this than the United States Congress.

"The vote is the most powerful instrument ever devised by man for breaking down injustice and destroying the terrible walls which imprison men because they are different from other men." Lyndon B. Johnson American 36th US president (1963-69). 1908-1973

Mission Accomplished, Obama Style

BY TAYLOR MARSH

Yesterday was a travel day for me. Evidently, while I was at 39,000 feet Obama won the nomination.

At last, victory! Or as Tim Russert says, Democrats have a nominee.

Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it. It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race. ... Obama plans to declare victory May 20

But as far as that train wreck, I don't think it's "waiting to happen." It's happening.

Declaring mission accomplished before it actually is isn't exactly democratic. I guess Obama's patience is kaput; his ego needing a bit more room. Now I've done it, I've insulted the Obama Boyz' favorite band. John McCain didn't even act like this with Mike Huckabee, who was trailing by a mile. But catching up on my reading, it seems Obama and his supporters have decided Clinton is just a little too inconvenient at this point. Can't have her running around winning primary states while Obama and the DNC are trying to wrap this up.

Hey, but I'm just some Irish-Scots girl with a blue-collar husband. Democrats evidently won't be needing us anymore.

That reminds me, you know, the superdelegates could stop this right now. They could walk out tomorrow and all declare for Obama. Ticktock, folks. What's taking so long?

Mr. Unity's crew in action.

Not to worry. Obama's the new John Kerry. Yeah, and that worked out so well.

Blog Nightline

Al Sharpton to NY1, via Ben Smith:

As you know, I’ve been in the ministry of civil rights all my life but had dealings with entertainers because of James Brown. The worst thing in the world is when an entertainer doesn’t know when the show is over. The audience is gone, the lights are down, you’re getting ready to cut the mics off and you are still on the stage singing. It’s over, it’s all right, it’s over. Come sing another day, but this show is over, Sen. Clinton.

In your case, Al, the cleaning crew has emptied the ashtrays, taken out the trash, turned the chairs onto the tables, swept the floor, mopped it, vacuumed it, waxed it, gone on break, come back, and locked up. And you’re still inside, talking to the moth on the wall. Well?

Todd Beeton works out the math that comes along with Obama’s intention to declare some kind of victory on May 20. The numbers are not quite what his campaign says they are, and even Howard Dean, who is quoted in Beeton’s piece, seems uncertain. The total number of delegates needed depends on the fate of Michigan and Florida, a fate that will not be determined until May 31 (or later, should the Credential Committee get into it), when the Rules Committee will meet. As Todd says,

[T]here's no getting around the fact that declaring victory with simply a majority of pledged delegates qualifies as moving the goal posts and changing the rules in the middle of the game, something Obama supporters have long chided the Clinton campaign for doing.

Hypocrisy has been part and parcel of the Obama campaign, but this isn't it. This is declaring victory before having won; for a campaign that is often celebrated for its purported deftness, this strikes me as a rather foolish move, to say nothing of the calculated hubris.

DJShay gets "a shiver" courtesy of a friend of NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd, who had this to say on Hardball today:

"Pennsylvania was an election of folks that were thinking about yesterday. North Carolina was sort of a future vote, that that is the future. You know, a tomorrow-type vote, a tomorrow-type of electorate.”

So, Chuck Todd’s “friend” had a thought, and Chuck brought it to Tweety, much the same way Maureen Dowd often finds “a woman friend” to share a thought about another woman, usually an insulting one, so that MoDo can then try to inoculate herself from all responsibility once the typically sexist drivel makes it into her op-eds. But I digress. Political analyst Chuck must have thought his friend’s opinion had merit, otherwise he would not have brought it to Hardball, and that opinion is that Pennsylvania voted for the past because it chose Clinton and North Carolina is all about the future because it picked Obama. That’s deep. And completely flawed. A better argument, and one that has the added bonus of not being intrinsically condescending, is that Pennsylvania and North Carolina have two different visions of what the future might look like. Then again, that kind or argument would not send a thrill anywhere near Tweety’s leg.

Hilary Rosen has had enough of the calls for Clinton to get out of the race and of the insinuation, made by “people who have never liked her and don't know her” that what she actually means to do is tear the party apart and make it impossible for Obama to win in November (Is this a good time to note that, should Sen. Obama win the nomination, it’s not actually a given that he’ll be the next President? Because that’s all I’m reading today, and it’s only funny for the first four minutes):

I don't know what Hillary Clinton will do in the next few weeks. But I do know that she is not going to take an unwinnable fight to the convention and spoil the party. She wants to beat John McCain in the fall. And she sincerely believes that she has the best chance to do so and that she would be a better president. However, if a majority of the superdelegates tell her in the ensuing days that they are going to be for Obama, then she will accept their decision. And she will resolve her campaign the way she has lived her entire career -- with class, commitment and intelligence.

And that is the Hillary we all know.

Count the Votes

BY TAYLOR MARSH

Florida Demands Representation. Learned about this push during the Clinton event. It would be great if everyone pulled together and got involved at "FDR":

Florida Demands Representation (FDR) is a grassroots organization formed to protect the voting rights of Florida citizens. We are not affiliated with any political organization. We received no funding from any corporate, political, or special interest group. We are a group of concerned voters who are outraged that our civil liberties are being violated. We, as Florida voters, must send a message to our elected officials that we will no longer sit idle and allow our voting rights to be abused and ignored. Any voter, regardless of party affiliation, should be concerned. This is a civil liberties issue, not a campaign or candidate issue!

Oh, and another thing was announced at the Clinton event. The May 31st rules committee meeting was reported to be an open meeting. That means anyone can show up. Interesting.

...and this is ridiculous. Obama chooses to take his name off the ballot, but gets this deal? Again, ridiculous. I agree with Jeralyn.

Time to get busy.

I just got off a plane. It's been a long day, with a very long plane ride. Huge thanks to Scan and Grey who did a fabulous job when I was in D.C. doing business, meeting people, and generally just reaching out wherever I could.

But seriously, could the DNC have made a bigger mess of Michigan and Florida? Doubtful.

Hillary's Letter To Barack

May 8, 2008 Senator Barack Obama Obama for America P.O. Box 8102 Chicago, IL 60680 Dear Senator Obama, This has been an historic and exciting campaign. Millions of new voters have been brought into the process and their enthusiasm for the Democratic Party and the principles for which you and I have fought and continue to fight is unprecedented. One of the foremost principles of our party is that citizens be allowed to vote and that those votes be counted. That principle is not currently being applied to the nearly 2.5 million people who voted in primaries in Florida and Michigan. Whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee will be hamstrung in the general election if a fair and quick resolution is not reached that ensures that the voices of these voters are heard. Our commitment now to this goal could be the difference between winning and losing in November. I have consistently said that the votes cast in Florida and Michigan in January should be counted. We cannot ignore the fact that the people in those states took the time to be a part of this process and to make their preferences known. When efforts were untaken by leaders in those states to hold revotes to ensure that they had a voice in selecting our nominee, I supported those efforts. In Michigan, I supported a legislative effort to hold a revote that the Democratic National Committee said was in complete compliance with the party’s rules. You did not support those efforts and your supporters in Michigan publically opposed them. In Florida a number of revote options were proposed. I am not aware of any that you supported. In 2000, the Republicans won an election by successfully opposing a fair counting of votes in Florida. As Democrats, we must reject any proposals that would do the same. Your commitment to the voters of these states must be clearly stated and your support for a fair and quick resolution must be clearly demonstrated. I am asking you to join me in working with representatives from Florida and Michigan and the Democratic National Committee to arrive at a solution that honors the votes of the millions of people who went to the polls in Florida and Michigan. It is not enough to simply seat their representatives at the convention in Denver. The people of these great states, like the people who have voted and are to vote in other states, must have a voice in selecting our party’s nominee. Sincerely, Hillary Rodham Clinton

Open thread.

Rendell: 'Crushing' Victories Ahead

I get the feeling that the media and some Democratic elites were anxiously waiting for a disappointing night for Clinton to declare the race over. We should expect nothing less, considering all that we have seen. But even before Hillary won the Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries, a lot of us saw a challenging day to overcome shortly thereafter. We saw that come to pass two days ago. However, it's not too hard to see that the post-May 6th contests may well change the equation.

Yesterday on NPR's On Point, Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell laid it out:

I think we should let every state vote. I think Senator Clinton is going to win crushing victories in West Virginia and Kentucky and Puerto Rico and hold her own in the other states…People should take advantage of the polls and figure out the electoral math…It’s going to be an interesting three or four weeks. Let the people vote, and I would suggest that if there is any way to let Michigan and Florida vote, I would love to have seen it. We tried to work to get Michigan to approve a new primary, the DNC was for it, but unfortunately the Obama folks killed it in the Michigan legislature…

"Crushing" may well be no exaggeration. According to Rasmussen, Clinton holds a 29 point lead over Obama, and Susan at No Quarter has up a brand new poll that has Clinton up 40 points (63% to 23%) in West Virginia, which also happens to be a key swing state needed in November.

In Kentucky, Clinton leads by 34 according to SurveyUSA and by 25 according to Rasmussen.

How big would it be if Clinton's victories in West Virginia and Kentucky are by these margins? We can guess. Adding together the populations of these two states, we get a number that approaches the population of Virginia. Obama won Virginia by 29%...about 275,000 votes. If Clinton adds something close to this many votes to her total, she catapults herself back into the popular vote lead with all contests counted and estimates from four caucus states.

From there, it would just be a matter of keeping things close in Oregon, South Dakota and Montana, and winning Puerto Rico. There is less polling information available to get a good estimate for Puerto Rico, but there's a single poll at Pollster.com that has Clinton leading by 13 points. She's got a lot going for her there and is definitely favored.

The fact is... if these numbers hold up (no wishful thinking involved), Hillary Clinton will emerge as the popular vote winner at the end of her contest with Barack Obama. She will also have won the key Democratic states required for victory against John McCain. For these two reasons and more, it is a completely rational scenario that Hillary Clinton can end up with this nomination. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise, because they know full well what's in store for Obama in the remaining contests.

But it all starts with West Virginia next week. Are you in?

There's A Reason Why She Keeps Winning

Joe looks to his girlfriend for inspiration and Mika says Hillary's been "pretty brilliant" in another great Howard Wolfson appearance this morning.

His Mother's Dreams

BY TAYLOR MARSH
from Washington D.C.

Obama supporters have caused a lot of malicious mischief in the primary season, especially around here. It's one reason why when reading comments you hear such disdain. Having been through the caucus system myself, I can only say that if I saw Hillary's representatives in those caucuses act like Obama's I would no longer be supporting her. It would reflect on my opinion of the candidate and her campaign. In fact, if it hadn't been for Lorie, my tech team at AgoraNet, I would have been forced to cut off comments completely a long time ago. Obamabots would be invited in to join the discussion, then once in either be rude, hijack threads, or just down right vile towards my readers, but completely disrespectful towards Hillary Clinton in general. "Trolls" doesn't begin to describe it. The profanity in some of the comments yesterday I simply couldn't print. This has gone on for months. My own hate mail the last couple of days is over the top, with the expletives and harshness towards me unending. Mind you, it doesn't make a dent. I long ago lost all respect for Obama's supporters. Miscreants and children, infantile rough necks, with his female supporters the worst and most embarrassing, to themselves, that is.

However, one of these banned Obama supporters emailed me yesterday. The tone was quite different this time around, though he wasn't one of the profane ruffians, but simply came in at a volatile time when comments were being tightly moderated. I've cleared the way for him to join the conversation again. But before I could email him that I'd done so he sent me the missive below, which he said is what he would have written in the comment section if he'd not been banned. As much as his personal revelation surprised him, I was also, because this is the last thing I thought I'd hear from Obama's crowd, who have been so utterly disrespectful of Hillary's historic presidential run that it will take a long time for many of her supporters to get over it, while others never will.

Too few commentators, even women themselves, have taken Hillary's monumental candidacy to heart. Some of that is due to the traditional media's flippancy towards women, but also because the fourth estate in this country is still backwards, not allowing women their due. This extends to radio, where even supposedly progressive outfits ignore women like myself who could truly make a difference if on the air. That's why HLF has become so passionate about getting me back on radio, because she's finally heard what constitutes Democratic radio. It's not all that. Additionally, so many women today, especially young women, take for granted what the women who came before accomplished, while ignoring what is still left undone. It's not cool to be feminist. The wingnuts have succeeded in declaring this a post-feminist world. Tell that to a woman running from honor killings. Until all women are truly free none of us will be free ourselves, especially in what we owe those who don't have what we do here. Many also don't realize what a female president could mean to the women of this world, including nations around the globe. Women competing with one another has been the standard for so long, including for men, who for centuries were our very life line, because we couldn't put a roof over our own head. Solidarity is one thing, but paving the way for women to rise across the world is the only way we will change the world. It's not a small matter.

His name is Will. He is an Obama supporter. He just learned of one of his mother's dreams. It was an awakening.

I spoke to my mother briefly tonight, just small talk, and mentioned the political atmosphere of the last 24 hrs. She just said she loved me, and that she wanted to get off the phone, and gave it to my dad. She is a Hillary supporter, my dad and I are Obama folks. As my dad and I talked, I started to feel really bad about all the negative feelings that have emerged over the last few months. I particularly started to feel seriously guilty towards my mom. Had I just denied my 65 year-old mom the chance to see a woman become president for perhaps the only time in her adult life? I don't think that a woman president is that far off at all, but I certainly wouldn't go around assuming that, if I had spent the last 65 years watching a parade of men take the chair in the Oval Office, and feel like there is nothing to be done to change that. And along comes Hillary, and the dream is alive, and then it is crushed in this brutal primary we've all gone through. I guess for the first time in this election season, I walked for a moment in the other side's shoes, and I really didn't like how my side looked. And as much as my Obama activism has meant to me over the last several months, it suddenly didn't hold a candle to realizing I may have participated in stealing my mother's dreams away from her. All of a sudden, all I wanted to do was give my mom a female president, and do all it took to make that happen. This is a damn tough time to be a Democrat.

If Hillary would get the nomination, it is my belief that women across this country would mobilize in a manner that would send shock waves through the political system. Since we are the majority in this country, imagine what that would mean to the Democratic party. No single voting block has that power. A dream would finally become reality, not just for Will's mother, but for all women.

As we approach Mother's Day this weekend, it's something to contemplate. Will's mother is not alone.

Hillary Clinton, by the time this contest is finished, will have gotten more votes than any candidate in American primary history. She also has more retired flag officer support and high ranking military support than Barack Obama, but also of any Democrat who's run in recent times. With Hillary's candidacy we have come a long way, but as this presidential race continues to show, there's still much further to go.

Hillary Honors Women

BY TAYLOR MARSH
from Washington, D.C.

Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones

It all started with Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones. What a dynamo that sister is. Energy personified. She talked of women, of mothers, of sisters and daughters. She went outside the political to the human story of generations, which was the theme of the event. Terry McAuliffe spoke, Senator Barbara Mikulski. Dorothy Rodham, Hillary's mom, came out with Chelsea. She sat and took it all in, while Chelsea commanded the stage taking questions. They found a perfect way to utilize this beautifully charming woman who, as HLF said, is a meld of both of her parents. The Ebenezer AME Church choir came in singing, which brought me to my feet. Gospel does that to me, always has.

When she came down the long rope line towards the stage she stopped and talked, took pictures, and you could tell that everyone was exchanging energy, feeding off one another.

HLF had a table right on the aisle, second from the front. What a seat I had thanks to her. The table she purchased at the event was in honor of her mother's memory, as well as her sister-in-law, who was there and I got to meet. It was part of the $1 million plus raised at the event that included over 1,500 people, mostly women.

As Hillary turned to walk close to where I stood, I reached out to shake her hand. As I always do with people I don't see frequently, I always say my name to them when greeting. We've met before, but she also knows and reads this blog, so I knew when she heard my name she'd remember. Instead, she took my hands tightly. She looked into my eyes, then said "Thank you. Thank you," squeezing my hands even tighter. There was no doubt, the moment moved us both.

Hillary's speech was passionate, filled with things she was ready to do, all of which revolved around solving problems for people in order to make their lives better. Nobody gave these ideas to her. They came up through the passion she has for policies, because she's a politician who believes that Democratic solutions don't just provide hope, they change people's lives.

During one point in the speech she was interrupted by Code Pink. A man standing on a table with a banner about Iran until he was forcibly removed. Medea Benjamin, dressed casually, knelt right across the aisle from me, looking like she was recording Hillary's speech. I waited for it. She didn't get far in her vocal protest before she too was escorted away, as the room chanted "Hill-ary, Hill-ary."

The candidate herself remained smiling, didn't react, but didn't miss a beat either. Clinton simply stated, and I'm paraphrasing here, that she didn't mind they were there, because it's part of the package of American politics, but she hoped they had paid for the pleasure. The crowd roared with laughter, then on Hillary went.

No one knows when this will end. But one thing is certain. Until either she or Senator Obama has the requisite numbers to lock down the nomination, Hillary is fighting on. Every single person in that room will fight on with her. She knows she is not alone.

Oh, and by the way, I ran into some TM.com readers, which was wonderful. Some comment anonymously, so I'll leave it to them to come out. Met quite a few women who listen to my podcasts, which thrills me. Other women stopped me to thank me for this site, recognizing me after a double take. The support I felt from all I met was a tonic. It's been a long, hard slog for us all, and it isn't over yet.

Oh Timmy

BY TAYLOR MARSH
from Washington, D.C.

Morning Joe

h/t TM.com reader Marc

"If she wins Indiana it goes all the way through June." - Tim Russert

I mean seriously, this guy is the worst.

Late night open thread.

Blog Nightline

Ariel Alexovich rounds up the blogs for the Times and collects what seems to be the unanimous view of the blogospehere – with one very notable exception:

Blogger Taylor Marsh, an outspoken Clinton supporter, published a vehemently angry post, calling Mr. Russert, among other things, a “loud-mouthed, self-important elitist.” “Whose place is it to announce we have a nominee when neither candidate has enough delegates?” Ms. Marsh asked. “I’ll tell you who: no one.”

If you missed Taylor’s post today, go read it. In fact, go read it even if you already have because it’s one of the sweetest, most satisfying ass-kicking, ever.

John B. Judis says it's over:

The Democratic primary is over. Hillary Clinton might still run in West Virginia and Kentucky, which she'll win handily, but by failing to win Indiana decisively and by losing North Carolina decisively, she lost the argument for her own candidacy. She can't surpass Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote count. The question is no longer who will be the Democratic nominee, but whether Obama can defeat Republican John McCain in November. And the answer to that is still unclear.

This dance needs new moves. And a new abacus.

Jake Tapper has a To-Do list for Clinton. A few of the items will seem familiar to some of you:

4. Argue that Obama should have won Indiana; a post-game recalibration of expectations 5. Point to ugly exit poll data from Indiana showing 50% of Clinton supporters say they will not vote for Obama in the Fall 6. Push back on Obama "achievement" in Indiana that he lost white women by only 61%-39% -- as opposed to larger losses in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Argue: What kind of crazy worldview is this? 8. MICHIGAN and FLORIDA ...The number 2,025 no longer exists. 2,209...2,209...2,209... Make it a civil rights issue

Gosh, if only Sen. Clinton could think about doing any of that. And if only, when she did, the media were responsive, as opposed to ridiculing, and then didn't pretend to come up with a To-Do list as though the items were original.

If Democratic superdelegates truly want Hillary Rodham Clinton to quit the nomination race, why don’t they just publicly endorse Barack Obama and get it over with? There are more than enough of them to make up the difference needed to give him the winning majority. Until she officially loses, Clinton has no reason to drop out. And if this fight goes all the way to the convention floor because Obama doesn't have the required number of votes on record to formally claim the nomination, the blame falls on wimpy superdelegates -- not her.

Eric Boehlert writes about “NBC’s bad week”; Boehlert chronicles Arianna Huffington’s invitation to promote her new book, Right is Wrong: How the Lunatic Fringe Hijacked America, Shredded the Constitution, and Made Us All Less Safe, and the way she was then summarily disinvited once NBC & Co. realized the book included several passages that are critical of Tim Russert. It doesn’t end there, and it only gets worse.

Jerome Armstrong has more on Indiana and correctly points out that Sen. Clinton w